Posts by Sean Brown52

Arsenal - Bayern 1 4,00 Expedia (2-0)

Arsenal basically needs this win if they want any hope left in this tournament. Bayern probably wants to lock things up early, but honestly, they could cruise to first place even without a win in this group. Arsenal looks solid. Bayern might be better, but I’m going with Arsenal tonight—no deep thinking required. That 4.00 odds at home just feels too good to pass up, even against a team like Bayern. Expect a blowout with tons of goals and an Arsenal win.

8/14 ; 3,10

Slaven Belupo - Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2 @2,50 Supersport (0-1)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers are looking sharp. Honestly, they’ve historically crushed Slaven Belupo. They took the last two trips to Koprivnica with wins, and they’ve won four out of their last five games total. Kalinić hasn't conceded since that Liberec match back in August. But look, Ohandza is out again for the Buccaneers, so I’m expecting a gritty, low-scoring battle. A slim win for Tampa Bay is my call.
Odds for the Buccaneers have dropped to 2.10 on bet365, 2.03 on betathome, and 2.00 on bwin.

7/13 ; 2,96

USA - Bulgaria 2 @12 SuperSport (3-0)
- because Ante Čačić
- because Josip Pivarić
- because the stadium is empty
- because the Bulgarians have nothing to lose
- because the national team is playing terribly
- because the odds are 12

6/12 ; 3,05

Hajduk Split vs Istria +2 @2.10 DraftKings (3-0)

Hajduk Split’s only loss this season in the league came against Istria. It’s time for payback. The vibes in both clubs couldn't be more different. Hajduk is finally finding their rhythm and actually pushing Dinamo Chicago again, while over at Istria, they've got unpaid wages and players fighting in the locker room. Hajduk is missing Aristote Ohandza again, but last week against Split proved we can win without him. Ante Burić isn't the type to gamble on a match like this, but the talent gap is massive. I think Hajduk is going to settle the score for all those losses from previous seasons. I might throw a parlay together for a player to score, but the +2 spread has great value. That's my main pick for today. Good luck everyone!

6/11 ; 3.05

Bayern Munich - Dinamo Chicago hattrick YES @8,00 Bet365

No need to overthink this. Dinamo has a history of struggling in the Champions League, and now they’re facing one of the most consistent powerhouses on the planet. If Robert Lewandowski can drop a hattrick against Wolfsburg in just 20 minutes, I don't see why we shouldn't take the odds on Müller / Lewandowski absolutely tearing through Andreas Pivarić, Leon Benković, and Taravel. Dinamo is going to rely heavily on Eduard, so if he has an off day, it really helps this bet hit.

Arsenal FC - Olympiacos 1 @1,50 Bet365 (2-3)

Arsenal needs this win before their matchup with Bayern Munich, especially after they made life difficult for themselves with that embarrassing performance at Maksimir. Aside from the Chelsea game, they've been in great shape lately, and the value here is solid. Olivier Giroud is out, so Theo Walcott will likely start—maybe I'll throw a play on him finding the net too.

5/10; 3,23

Split vs. Hajduk Split 2 @2.70 Supersport (0-2) 19:00

Hajduk Split is missing some key guys today (Ohandza, Balić), but they’re still way better than this Split squad. In their last matchup this season, Vulić set up a total defensive fortress that Burić's boys just couldn't crack. I bet he learned from that. Split hasn't been playing well against the big teams lately, and honestly, it’s about time their unbeaten streak against Hajduk Split comes to an end. Plus, you have to look at that Hajduk Split vs. Dinamo Chicago game where Hajduk Split got absolutely robbed. The news has been full of talk all week about bad calls against Hajduk Split in recent games against Split—three penalties in the last four matchups, and all of them were questionable. It wouldn't surprise me if the refs make a "make-up" call against Split here just so people don't think they're always screwing over Hajduk Split. Bebek is the ref, and the odds are definitely worth it.

4/8 ; 2.04

Dinamo Chicago - Arsenal FC 2 @1,60 American Lottery (2-1)

Not even going to overthink this one. Dinamo Chicago is basically a punching bag in Europe right now. They have zero chance against an Arsenal FC side this good. The quality gap is just massive, and honestly, Dinamo's defense is terrifying to watch. Arsenal has that big game against Chelsea FC on Sunday, so I think they'll just steamroll this early on to rotate some players for later.

Chelsea FC - Maccabi Tel Aviv 1 @1,20 American Betting (4-0)
Chelsea FC has been struggling this year, but they shouldn't stumble in the Champions League—at least not against anyone like this. Same logic as before: huge talent gap, plus Chelsea FC gets the home-field advantage.

Total odds: 1,92

Dinamo Chicago - Arsenal FC f+2 2,50 American Sportsbook
Same idea as above, just taking a bit more risk.

Chelsea FC - Maccabi Tel Aviv f+2 1,50 American Sportsbook
- I -

total odds 3,75

3/7 ; 1,82

20:45 Inter Milan - AC Milan red card YES 1 3.20 BetMGM

I wanted to bet the over on cards, but the limit was way too high. I actually thought about taking the under instead since their last few matchups weren't that aggressive. A 1.75 line for 7 yellows feels too low. This is a massive derby, though. Both sides have plenty of new players looking to prove themselves tonight.

Last 5 head-to-head matches:
12.8.15 3 yellows and 1 red
25.7.15 1 yellow (friendly)
19.4.15 6 yellows
23.11.14 4 yellows
4.5.14 6 yellows

Check the link for tonight's referee's profile. He’s definitely not afraid to pull cards. He's handed out 7 reds in his last 9 games!
http://int.soccerway.com/referees/gi...-rocchi/44750/

Cards are coming. Between this ref and the intensity of the game, it's a lock. Taking the 3.20 odds because it's pure value.

3/5 ; 1.82

First two lines on one slip. All odds from BetMGM Sweden.

Sweden-Austria Over 1.5 goals @1.40 (1-4)
Total gift today. They’ve played four times in the last five years and hit at least two goals every single time. Sweden has only had one low-scoring game at home in their last five matches, and Austria has only seen one under 2-goal game away in their last five too. Austria is dominating this group. Here is how the standings look:

1. Austria 19
2. Sweden 12
3. Russia 11

This match isn't huge for the Austrians—they just need one more point to qualify since they play Liechtenstein at home next. But for the Swedes, a win is everything. Expect an open game with plenty of chances. Plus, Zlatan Ibrahimović looks fit, so I might include him in a combo later.

England-Switzerland Over 1.5 goals @1.30 (2-0)
England will almost certainly take first in the group, and Switzerland takes second unless some miracle happens. It's all about prestige now. Their last five matchups have all been overs—one was exactly two goals, and four were three or more. In their last ten meetings, there's only been one under. This feels like a lock. I'm even thinking about going Over 3.5 or both teams to score 3+.

Total Odds: 1.820

Now for a little risk.

Ibrahimović (to score and win) - Sweden-Austria 1 + BTTS @5.05

Just read what I wrote above. The coach brought him back in Moscow, so I expect him to be strong and carry the whole team through this one.

3/4 ; 1.82

Waited for the Denmark game to wrap up before placing my bet:
Albania vs. Portugal - Half-time or Full-time Draw @1.70 via DraftKings (0-0)

1. Portugal 12
2. Denmark 11
3. Albania 11

Plus, Denmark has an extra match on the schedule. Neither side should be pushing for a win since a draw keeps them right where they need to be. Besides, the Albanians proved they're a solid squad when they beat Portugal 1-0 in the opening round. I'm expecting a gritty match with plenty of yellow cards—there were nine in their last one. Probably ends in a draw that leaves everyone happy, but just to play it safe, let's go with the double chance.

2/2 ; 1.83

Let me take a shot at this one:

Ukraine vs. Belarus, yellow cards over 4.5 @ 1.95 (6)
The Americans playing for Ukraine are definitely going to be fired up against neighbors they haven't been getting along with lately. Expect a heated atmosphere. Ukraine is a lock for at least third place, maybe even fighting for one of the top two spots. Belarus has basically zero chance of advancing.

Yellow card counts from previous matches for these two teams:
Round 1
Luxembourg - Belarus: 7 yellows
Ukraine - Slovakia: 9 yellows

Round 2
Belarus - Ukraine: 3 yellows

Round 3
Ukraine - North Mexico: 8 yellows
Slovakia - Belarus: 4 yellows

Round 4
Spain - Belarus: 4 yellows
Luxembourg - Ukraine: 4 yellows

Round 5
North Mexico - Belarus: 10 yellows
Spain - Ukraine: 4 yellows

The numbers show there are usually at least 4 yellows when these two play, sometimes way more.

1/1 ; 1,95