Posts by Brandon Ramirez53

Persepolis match, bet365, @3.6

Final round of the Iranian Pro League. Persepolis just needs a single point to clinch the title. They can't afford a loss—their goal difference is worse than second place, so if they slip up and the runners-up win, it's over for them.

Persepolis has drawn their last four—they look gassed, honestly. Feels like they just want to grab that one point and get it over with in some lifeless game. The home side is bottom-tier stuff, but they’ve already secured enough points to stay safe, so they aren't playing for anything.
The hosts will be happy enough just to hold the champs to a draw, while Persepolis celebrates the trophy. Everyone at the stadium is gonna be riding high tomorrow night around 9 PM.

Pre-match stats: https://www.flashscore.com/match/IkrpTkzb/#h2h;overall

This is pure value!

Avranches - US Creteil, A1, @1.55, PSK

So, if we go with the Asian handicap and it doesn't hit, money back. Simple.

Avranches is sitting second from the bottom, but Les Herbies—who's just above the red line—is only 2 points ahead of them.

Check the standings here: https://www.flashscore.com/standings...#table;overall

Avranches has been playing lights out in 2018—they haven't lost a single game. They won their last two, and before that, they had three draws. Their form over the last couple of months? Totally solid.

Creteil, on the other hand, is a mess. Last time they actually pulled off a win was back in late 2017. Since then, it’s been two draws and five losses. They've dropped four straight now.

For Avranches, this is huge for staying up. You know everyone at the club is thinking they *have* to grab these three points against a team this bad. And do they have the skill to do it? Absolutely—they’ve handled tougher opponents lately. Expect Avranches to come out swinging.

Can Creteil pull an upset and actually make something happen? Not likely. They lack the talent, and looking at those results, their confidence must be in the gutter.

The single bet is at 2.25, which looks juicy, but sticking with A1 at 1.55 feels way safer—worth a max play.
Creteil winning this relegation scrap? Seems totally unrealistic to me. I just don't see how a team like Creteil finds its rhythm when things get tough after doing absolutely nothing for two months.

Pre-match stats: https://www.flashscore.com/match/fsjT7czG/#h2h;overall

Gerald Carter53 said:Look, I’m not downplaying the guy you lost on. But everything you wrote in this post is just wrong. You seriously still think the Detroit Pistons are going to play better this year? What were they supposed to do, win away at Reims and AC Milan?

Yeah, they definitely needed to show way more.

redjackal said:I'm siding with driftingotter47 on the rest—you can't say a few guys don't have value and then expect to play them. If you do that, you're basically destined to hit a losing streak eventually. 👍

34th min, goal: https://www.soccerstand.com/match/dr...#match-summary

My logic holds up—it's solid. 👍

Gerald Carter53, I actually placed a bet here where the underdog was Whitehawk. It never even crossed my mind to bet against them, even if they're stuck at the bottom (just like Detroit)—theoretically, they could still pull it off. But looking at their stats, Whitehawk has genuinely improved their game, not just fake progress. I've seen they actually know how to find the back of the net lately. 👏

driftingotter47 said:because in any system—any universe, really—you can't tell me that 9 incoming transfers aren't a massive factor when you're looking at a bet

Look, I never said it wasn't a fact. I just didn't realize they'd brought in 7 or 8 players—but more importantly, you couldn't even see it in the results (aside from beating that PATHETIC Providence side, which doesn't mean anything).
What I saw was them bringing in a new Coach over two months ago, getting a little spark, then sliding right back to their old ways.
If I’d known they signed 7-8 guys, sure, that would've changed things—but I didn't notice it because there was zero impact on how they played. No REAL changes at all. It's a team that, after all those signings, sits on 9 points with 13 goals scored through 23 (now 24) rounds.
I explained why I went with Auxerre— my reasons for A2 totally outweighed the fact that they brought in those players. .
Auxerre scored an early goal—smart, aggressive play—and what happens to a team sitting on 9 points once they concede? They lose heart. They just can't get back into the game.

Whitehawk - Weston, ODG3+, @1.75, PSK

So, both teams score and we go over 2.5. Simple enough.
Whitehawk is sitting dead last—nowhere near safety. Meanwhile, Weston’s just chilling, sitting 13 points clear of the relegation zone.
In their last 10 games, Whitehawk hit the over 2.5 eight times, and seven of those were BTTS. Even though they're bottom of the table, they know how to find the net, and honestly? They've looked way better since the start of the year.
As for Weston, they've seen the over 2.5 seven times in their last 10 matches, and every single one was an ODG3+.

The home side has zero pressure—nothing to lose—so they’ll keep pushing forward like they have been lately. Weston is totally relaxed, playing without any tension—you can see it in the results—plus they're actually trying to hunt down the leaders.

Weather looks decent for action—just some light rain and 43 degrees: https://www.accuweather.com/sr/gb/br...recast/2520245

Pre-match stats here: https://www.flashscore.com/match/drf2Sx7B/#h2h;overall

No doubt about it—judging by how these two have played recently, I'm expecting an open game with constant attacks from both sides. It’s not a massive value play, the odds are fair, but I think this lands.

Gerald Carter53 said:Isn't this forum supposed to be for commenting? It's not like I'm forcing anyone. I should be able to say what I think, right?

I don't mind—go ahead and tear apart every single one of my bets if you want. Honestly, it actually helps me out.

Gerald Carter53 said:I don't get why Detroit is getting trashed while Auxerre is being hyped up so much. Neither of us have actually sat through their games—I'm just basing my take on what I've read and some highlights I saw.

Based on how I look at betting, all I need is to see Auxerre's form—which is solid—and Detroit's results—only 9 points after 23 rounds (relegation squad!) and 13 goals scored. That’s the bottom line right there.
Plus a bunch of other little details.

Gerald Carter53 said:They lost 1-0 and 2-1 against Reims and Ajaccio—that’s not luck, they actually stepped it up. That's my point. You're just insisting they're still playing garbage and losing.

You're missing the bigger picture here, and honestly, here's one more reason why I took that bet.
Are you seriously trying to pick a fight with me? 🙂

Being sitting on 9 points is soul-crushing—they've basically accepted relegation at this point. Any team stuck with only 9 points this late in the season is going to be totally checked out.
What do you expect from a squad that’s only managed 9 points after 23 games? Grit? High intensity?

Look, getting Auxerre at 2.45 was pure value against a side with 9 points through 23 rounds.
I just played the Asian handicap to be safe.

Gerald Carter53 said:Btw, I assume you saw the stats for the Nantes-Auxerre game and maybe caught the highlights showing how much bad luck Nantes actually had.

Yeah, I saw that, but handing four goals to a bottom-feeder on their own turf? That ain't a coincidence.

Gerald Carter53 said:It definitely hit the results—how could it not? They walked away with 4 points at home.

Man, Providence has been absolutely terrible lately—just look at their recent results!

Providence: Providence is looking pretty rough lately—anyone else seeing this? Honestly, just a mess right now.

You think I didn't see who they played? Look—if Detroit can pull a win on the home turf of some bottom-tier first-division team, then that actually means something.

Gerald Carter53 said:Nice hit—but honestly? I think you just got lucky this time. 🙂

I didn't win, but I didn't exactly lose either—just a wash. Everything went exactly how I planned with my picks, too. It’s simple: the Lakers have been playing out of their minds lately, while Detroit is just straight-up struggling—they've only put up 13 goals all season. Plus, I played it safe with the A2.

driftingotter47 said:How much time did you actually spend analyzing this play if you missed that massive wave of incoming transfers? It makes any bet you make totally irrelevant—no serious player misses stuff like that, yet here you are acting like you're an expert.

Look, I’ve got my own logic for picking bets—my own set of rules to follow. If a matchup clears my mental checklist, I take it. There are plenty of other reasons why I picked this one, but I wasn't about to write a damn essay on the Lakers - Celtics game.👍

I spent a little time on the analysis. Checked recent scores, saw how both teams were playing lately, looked for coaching changes, checked what the Alex coach had to say, and noticed Detroit has only scored 13 goals so far!! Since X isn't losing money, A2 was a solid play—and it hit. Spent maybe half an hour, maybe a bit more. 🙂 If this was the only bet I was placing today, sure, I’d spend more time. But I’m just trying to share the plays I actually feel good about, even if I miss quite a few in reality.

The fact they bought so many players slipped past me, but honestly, it hasn't changed the Detroit Pistons results after those signings! They’re still playing poorly and losing.

My betting relevance isn't up for debate—not for one second—as long as I keep hitting at the rate I do. And let's be real, nobody on this forum has ever had a run like mine. 👍

So, again: I have my own reasoning when picking bets, a system I built myself, and clearly, it works!

Gerald Carter53 said:Hmm...
The Lakers were actually pretty busy this transfer window—brought in about 7 or 8 new guys

Didn't know that.

driftingotter47 said:That 1.77 is actually 1.61 once you factor in taxes and vig—BetMGM is sitting at 1.80 on this bet, so you're basically losing all the value immediately (if there's even any value to begin with, not that I'd get into that).

Like I said before, I only use ESPN just because it makes posting my picks easier—takes me one minute to grab the odds from ESPN, and honestly, nobody listens to me anyway; they’ll just put their money wherever they think they can get a better deal.

Tours vs. Auxerre, A2, @1.77, Double Chance

Look, if we're talking Asian 2, you get your money back if it ends in a draw.

It’s the bottom-feeder Tours against Auxerre, who’s sitting in 14th and still hasn't locked up safety. Tours is stuck at the bottom with 9 points—relegation is basically a done deal at this point, and honestly, I think everyone at the club knows it. They brought in a new manager back in November 2017 and showed a tiny spark for a second, but then they just slid right back into their losing ways.
Tours has only managed 13 goals all season while giving up 43—they're clearly a weak squad.

Auxerre has been playing pretty solid lately; they haven't lost in their last 6, picking up 4 wins and 2 draws. Back in January 2018, they even knocked out a top-tier side like Portland Timbers in the cup on their own turf. Plus, they just snatched a draw against FC Cincinnati with a 95th-minute goal—that kind of stuff builds massive momentum, and they should head into this matchup against the cellar-dwellers feeling pretty confident.
No matter how this goes, Auxerre is just the better team here. Tours can only dream of pulling an upset like that against a big club.

The odds are dropping on Auxerre across most major US sportsbooks—the money is moving their way, and that usually means something.

Pre-match stats: https://www.flashscore.com/match/SWF...#match-summary

I mean, sure, anything can happen. Maybe the Tours guys suddenly find some fight and pull off a shocker? It's football—luck plays a part. But getting Auxerre at 1.77 (and you don't lose if it's a draw) is definitely value.

Standard - Club Brugge, over 2.5 @2 PSK

Belgian Cup semifinal.
Standard hasn't been anything special this season, but they've flipped the script lately—hit over 2.5 in their last 5 straight. Just a few days ago, they went toe-to-toe with a tough Anderlecht in a 3:3 thriller.
As for Club Brugge, they've been playing high-octane soccer for months; out of their last 13 matches, 12 went over 2.5, often by a mile. They finally hit an under in their last outing, but I'm betting they bounce right back to their usual high-scoring ways.
Given how these two have been playing lately, I'm expecting an open game where both sides trade blows—so yeah, at least 3 goals should be on the menu.

Pre-match stats: https://www.flashscore.com/match/8WOA4jEe/#h2h;overall

This line looks like total value to me. Even with the books adjusting to the market, I'd say the over 2.5 should realistically be sitting closer to 1.7.

Korona vs Zaglebie 1 @2.05 PSK

US Open Cup quarterfinals.
The first leg back on October 26th at Zaglebie's place went to Korona, 1-0. But hey, one win doesn't mean they're through—they actually have to show up and play if they want to advance.

Korona’s been on fire lately—6 wins and 4 draws in their last 10 games, zero losses. They haven't tasted defeat in nearly two and a half months. Plus, they're sitting third in the MLS standings, just 3 points off the top spot.
Zaglebie? Not so much. They’ve been struggling hard, picking up 4 losses and 2 draws in their last 6 outings.
Pre-match stats: https://www.flashscore.com/match/tjEjDMli/#h2h;overall

Korona's manager basically called this matchup one of the biggest tests of the fall season—which is exactly why I'm riding with the home team to win. Here's what he said: link.
If they pull this off, they move into the semifinals, and let's be real—they're definitely gunning for the trophy this year.

Zaglebie has to win to stay alive, right? That means they'll have to play an open game—and that's just asking for trouble against Korona's attackers.

Charleroi vs. Mouscron @2 PSK

US Open Cup, Round of 32.
The Mouscron manager basically admitted this cup match is an afterthought—they're prioritizing the league, so expect them to bench more than half their starters.
On the flip side, the visitors are coming out swinging with their full squad. Their coach made it clear they’re actually gunning for this trophy. Check the pre-game quotes here: link.

So, if the home team loses, they won't even break a sweat—the away side is clearly way more motivated here.

Plus, the visitors have been on fire lately compared to the hosts. They've cruised to four straight wins, while the home team has been a mess—losing five of their last six and drawing just one.
Pre-match stats right here: https://www.flashscore.com/match/CSD1FlWC/#h2h;overall

Monaco vs PSG - Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 goals @1.85 parlay

Weather is clear—no rain in sight, sitting at 57 degrees right now. https://www.accuweather.com/en/mc/mo...-forecast/5174 Solid conditions for a game.

In their last 10 home games, Monaco scored in all but one—that shutout loss against Porto (0-3). They’re fresh, too; they haven't traveled much lately. Sure, they dropped one at home to Leipzig a few days ago, but that shouldn't have left them exhausted.
As for PSG? They’re an absolute scoring machine—dropped 24 goals over their last 5 matches!

Monaco is trailing PSG by 6 points, so they’re hunting this win. They aren't going to settle for a draw, and let's be honest, Monaco isn't the type of squad to play it safe or get tactical just to protect a point.

I'm expecting an open game with constant attacks on both sides. The odds are fair—not massive value here, but I'm taking it because I think it hits.

Pre-match stats: https://www.flashscore.com/match/fRuupUpO/#h2h;overall

driftingotter47 said:This is actually 3.52 after taxes—compare that to when Bet365 had 4.33 on the X. You’re out here lecturing people about serious betting strategy, yet you’re dropping odds from DraftKings? Seriously? 🤣🤣

Look, I only put that there to satisfy the forum rules. I saw someone else grabbing odds from DraftKings, so I spent a minute copying the numbers over from there too. If someone decides to follow my lead on a pick, hey, nobody's crazy enough to think I'm telling them how to spend their money—everyone bets where they get the best value. 🙂

Gorodeja - BATE Borisov X @4 PSK

Final round of the MLS season. BATE Borisov holds a 2-point lead over the chasing pack—Dynamo Minsk and Shakhtar Soligorsk. BATE’s goal differential is sitting at +42, while Dynamo is at +29 and Shakhtar is at +32. So, looking at the math—BATE's goal difference is untouchable, and they actually swept all four head-to-head matchups against these two this season!

Bottom line? BATE only needs one point to clinch the title. Meanwhile, Gorodeja has been drawing like crazy this year—thirteen ties total—and they've split all three of their last matches.

When things get like this, the big favorites usually just do the bare minimum to get the job done—meaning a draw. Plus, Gorodeja won't mind walking away without a loss against the champs. Given the odds, I'm eyeing a 0:0 or 1:1, but my money is on a scoreless 0:0.

Check the pre-match stats here: https://www.flashscore.com/match/YZ3...;table;overall

This is pure value!

Gladbach vs. Bayern: Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

The home side is absolutely tearing it up lately—dropped 12 goals in their last 4 games. I seriously doubt Bayern’s defense holds firm without leaking at least one, and let’s be real, Bayern finds the net against basically everyone... which shouldn't be too hard for Gladbach to manage, right?
Thinking about going Over 2.5 goals, but honestly, just sticking to BTTS is the safer play. Here’s the stats before kickoff:

https://www.flashscore.com/match/I1rPcssk/#h2h;overall