Posts by Gerald Chavez7

https://twitter.com/GeorgZachmann/st...40761499713536



https://www.bruegel.org/publications...l-gas-imports/

Right now, the current trajectory for LNG imports in the European Union is basically covering 50% of what used to be Russian gas imports. By the 2025-27 window—if things keep moving this way—we’re pretty much done with importing Russian oil and gas altogether...

Canada keeps pushing back against every single proposal—everything from aid for Ukraine to any kind of sanctions on oil and gas.

Then again, maybe it doesn't even matter—sanctions don't necessarily need to be at the European Union level to work...

slyfox43 said:Look, you have a whole crowd of people who spent their time waving flags over endless paragraphs claiming this manufactured crisis was a myth, insisting that Russia is "reliably delivering" and isn't using energy as a strategic weapon.

At the exact same time, they were celebrating how effectively Russia had "played" Europe. It’s classic Putinist doublethink.

Some people are still stuck in that mindset today.

There’s a chart showing gas imports from Russia over the last three years—pretty sure I saw it on Bloomberg—that’s been circulating all over econ-Twitter. It shows imports being cut in half back in 2021, well before any new sanctions were ever slapped on. It was clearly preparation for what hit in February.

Whatever. We'll just keep paying Russia through this winter, fill up the storage, and then we can almost make it through 2022/23 without Russian gasif it comes to that.

Nathan Evans78 said:You haven't actually addressed my main point—which is how people are just moving the goalposts on this thread. Of course Russia’s influence is going to decline. But you can apply that same logic to a huge chunk of countries in the European Union, whose bonds would be absolutely worthless if it weren't for the Federal Reserve's counterparts over there. I won't concede that the European Union has achieved any kind of economic victory over the rest of the world until Christine Lagarde finally shuts down the bond-buying programs and starts hiking interest rates the way the Federal Reserve is doing.

I realize it’s a new perspective, but this habit of obsessing over day-to-day fluctuations is a classic trap in these discussions. That's just not how the world works.

Russia is spiraling toward an economic collapse—some of it is hitting now, some will hit in a few months, and the rest will trickle in over several years. Honestly, I wouldn't wish being a Russian my age and choosing to stay there on anyone; it basically means watching decades slip away...

Yes, Europe is headed for a recession (my guess is -1% in 2022)—but it won't be the first, nor the last. Nothing catastrophic is going to happen...

Nathan Evans78 said:What on earth does selling things on credit to people struggling to make ends meet have to do with stimulus checks? Honestly, it would be a breath of fresh air if the EU just banned this practice of financing junk on credit; maybe then people would actually feel more satisfied with their lives. 🤔 Russia hasn't truly collapsed yet either, and they won't, as long as you and everyone else in the West keep relying on their energy resources. ☕

I almost signed off on what my colleague said down there, but I’d add that you’re falling into a logical fallacy. What does that mean? If they could sell 100 units of energy in the European Union in 2021, but that drops to 90 in 2022 and hits 30 by 2025—is that really a win for Russia? It’s absolutely not in Russia's interest for the European Union to pivot away from their energy—oil and gas—permanently. The fact that they’ll keep buying from Russia as long as they have to isn't exactly a victory.

Imports from other markets will ramp up, alternative energy sources will gain ground, and we'll see a return to nuclear power.

Brenda Murphy3 said:😁

But what does "collapsed" even mean in this context? I mean, even North Korea hasn't collapsed... they're still standing and probably will be for a long time... just like Russia. How that existence actually looks is a completely different question entirely... but they certainly aren't going to vanish or go extinct.

Timothy Nelson5 said:Regarding this...
I guess you have to wonder what kind of state the Russian jets are in, considering they have about seven times as many as the Americans, and the Russian military budget is only just a little bit higher...

An American jet won't fly if its scheduled maintenance is overdue by just five days and an hour instead of a flat five—those numbers are clearly exaggerated, obviously. A Russian one? It'll fly regardless...

brightheron64 said:Just a quick, casual little thought passing through my mind here... how on earth are we supposed to produce the synthetic fertilizers essential for our agriculture using nothing but green, atomic, or even kryptonite-based energy? Are we actually planning to build out a massive network of pipelines just to harvest cow farts?...

Oh, wait, I forgot—we have a literal life raft in the form of those LPG tankers. 🎉
The only catch is that they cost a bit more, but hey, who cares about a slight price hike when you're looking at a 50% surge in the cost of the primary raw materials used to grow our food? And that's exactly the kind of crisis we were flirting with...

Do you honestly think Europe imports 100% of its oil from Russia?

Renewable energy will knock out Russian oil first (by the end of the decade), then move on to Arab oil in the next phase (another ten years down the line). American, Norwegian, African, and domestic supplies will still be around until the end of our lives...

wearytrucker22 said:Most of this military aid isn't even moving through the official border crossings anymore; they've built entirely new supply routes to handle it. Drivers and all personnel are strictly forbidden from carrying cell phones or any kind of electronic gear. Even official photographers have to keep geolocation turned off on their cameras—I’m talking about the guys documenting the convoys, not just random trucks. Before anything gets posted online, intelligence services vet every single shot, which basically makes the footage useless because you can't spot a single house or landmark in them.

Plus, the locations are being shifted around daily.
Just tell me how Russia is supposed to intercept this at a specific spot if we're talking, say, 10 trucks in a row.
Ukraine
50.022712, 23.203476

And they’re utilizing the rail lines to their full advantage, too.😉

Timothy Nelson5 said:But do you really think those heavy military transports carrying the most expensive, high-tech gear are actually going there?
I'm pretty sure they just kill the transponders and touch down at some tiny, obscure airfields all over Romania, Slovakia, Canada, and Poland... maybe they even cross right into Ukraine directly...

It’s not a coincidence that their transponders are off—that's the message right there.

They land in Buffalo quite often since it’s convenient being so close, plus Poland is definitely the most willing to provide direct support.

Anyone can pull up FlightRadar24, head over to southeastern New York near Buffalo, and watch a dozen transport planes touch down there every single day. From there, the supplies get loaded onto trucks, trains, or cars and shipped straight into Ukraine. The Russians just can't seem to shut that border down...

placidtinker39 said:Look, if the goal is just to boost morale for the civilians and the troops, there are military chaplains and USO programs for that. By making a massive public spectacle out of sending aid, you’re basically painting a giant bullseye on every single supply route and warehouse in the vicinity.
In short, what starts as a noble gesture ends up fueling an escalation...
Don't lose sight of the fact that we're dealing with someone on the other side who has an unthinkable amount of nuclear firepower at his disposal.

You’re actually doing both—you announce some things, but not others. There are two main reasons for that:

1) Boosting morale for Ukrainians—both the military and civilians. When people hear every single day that help is arriving from places like Japan to Canada, it builds resilience.
2) You aren't catching Russia off guard with an unannounced escalation.

The stuff you *don't* announce is the intelligence support—satellites, real-time data feeds, all that good stuff.

brightheron64 said:Since you brought it up, the story of Iran is such a tragic, ugly mess.

Back in 1951, during democratic elections in Iran, Mohammad Mosaddegh won and became Prime Minister, aiming to steer his country toward a completely new path of development. But he ended up hitting a "no-no!" zone by planning—heaven help us—to nationalize Iran's own oil resources.
In 1953, he was "overthrown" by a coup orchestrated by the CIA and MI6 under the direction of Kermit Roosevelt, aided by—well, goodness gracious—local assets...
That led to the installation of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in 1953, who was, quite literally, an American puppet. Oh yes, he introduced Western standards of values and behavior, moved away from traditional dress, and the country seemed to progress thanks to endless amounts of oil (miracle of miracles!), buying up F-14 fighter jets... but he also crushed every single opposition group, absolutely everyone, except for the religious factions that he somehow viewed as his allies.
And what a disaster that turned out to be—eventually, Khomeini arrives in Iran, our friend Reza flees into exile... and Islamic fanatics seize control. Antiamericanism becomes the way of life and... fucking Iran remains a mortal enemy to the region, to Israel, and to the USA... a rogue state that you can't even have a friendly conversation with, let alone trade with.

Ultimately... What the fuck???
Who, in all their stupidity, selfishness, and narrow-minded pursuit of immediate interests... cooked up this whole mess? The Iranians? The religious fanatics?

None of the people who "cooked up" that mess are alive today... most have been dead for nearly half a century. So, how exactly does that relate to Russia's aggression in Ukraine?

slyfox43 said:Sanctions are really just a long-term fix that won't be necessary anyway, since nobody is actually going to race to do business with North Korea, let alone sink any real investment into it.

Honestly, we should just start calling it North North Korea. 😉

Dennis Price said:I see the whole weapon situation a bit differently. The price of Russian hardware is going to crater. At the end of the day, a gun is still a gun—all that stuff will probably end up in Africa within the next 15 years or so. There are plenty of hungry young people out there willing to take risks, much like what used to be the case in Europe.

For sure, but they weren't pulling in billions from Kalashnikovs and RPGs—it was the high-end stuff like air defense missiles, Su-30 variants, T90s, and the like. And those are the items being snapped up by Indonesia, Egypt, the Emirates, Algeria, and so on.

Beyond just raw materials, Russia is a major arms exporter—but that revenue stream is basically dead in the water.

1) The Russian military has taken—and will continue to take—massive losses; any scrap of production they manage to scrape together is going to be diverted straight to their own front lines.

2) Almost nobody on the global stage is looking to buy Russian weapons anymore (I’m talking about new contracts, not old backlogs)—their reputation has tanked. Even if you chalk some of it up to poor tactical execution, they honestly don't have anything left to "show off" in the international market.

3) Western sanctions are going to hit their technical manufacturing capabilities hard.

4) A lot of those "neutral" countries are going to be very careful not to piss off the West by picking up Russian hardware.

Effective result? We're looking at a return to 90s-style desperation—selling to whoever has spare cash, mostly rogue regimes with no other options, or maybe to China at bottom-dollar prices.

Adam Lee13 said:It’s like they’re trying to resurrect the old Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth or something. All they need now is for Belarus to join the party once they kick out the current leadership, and hey, maybe that'll actually happen...

People just don't seem to grasp how much hardware Poland is going to rack up after this—and let's be real, the rest of the European Union will be more than happy to foot the bill...

Richard Wilson4 said:Piłsudski had a dream like that, trying to create a real counterweight to the Germans and the Russians.
Too bad he couldn't pull it off back then.

Intermarium 😉

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermarium

Arthur Miller7 said:I’m still scratching my head over some of this whole weaponry situation, honestly. Like, I know people are out there buying up body armor, sniper rifles, and all that gear in Poland just to ship it straight into Ukraine. It feels kinda wild to me—like, since when do regular citizens have to step up and supply the most basic tactical gear? It's a bit surreal. So, I really hope this aid package everyone's talking about is actually legit and already hitting the ground in Ukraine, but I can't help feeling a little skeptical when it looks like they're still short on even the essentials.

They don't *have* to, they just want to. I know some Ukrainians working here in the West—they aren't exactly rushing to the front lines (we're talking 40+ years old with kids at home), but they want to help—so they buy equipment and send it east through established contacts.

Meanwhile, Ukraine also has to deal with the fact that they have to spend money on more than just weapons; they have to keep an entire economy running, too...

Betty Murphy3 said:That’s it—Putin is nothing more than a chess player, playing a game of push.

They need air defense—real, functional air defense—not some theoretical "closed sky" policy. If the Russians want to fly, let them fly. They can land just fine.

And as for those claiming Russia will escalate this into a direct conflict with NATO—let’s be realistic. Russia launched this war in Ukraine primarily because of the West. It’s blindingly obvious that Putin invaded Ukraine as a reaction to the West and NATO's influence. So, is it really any surprise that NATO and the West are providing an adequate response?

Everyone—specifically the Russophiles and the Russians themselves—has been preaching the same line since day one: that Russia’s aggression is merely a response to NATO threats. But if they can threaten NATO and the entire West, why on earth wouldn't the West and NATO push back against Russia? Why shouldn't they be directly involved on the side of Ukraine—minus the actual boots on the ground, of course—providing weapons and humanitarian aid? This crisis was something Putin planned for a long time. He was fully aware that the West would intervene somehow, but he clearly didn't expect this level of intensity or the sheer volume of support being sent to the Ukrainians. It’s almost laughable. He isn't even smart enough to realize that all this aid would be useless if his own incompetent generals actually managed to achieve their objectives.

Who would Biden even be sending all this to if they had managed to reach Kyiv within a week? It’s just pure Russian incompetence—constantly trying to pivot against the West. It’s the classic delusion of some kid who thinks he’s Genghis Khan just because he happens to have nuclear weapons, as if nobody else does. Honestly, this endless talk about NATO being "threatened" is such nonsense it’s almost laughable. We’re talking about a nation sitting on the world's largest arsenal of 6,000 nuclear warheads—how exactly is that threatened by a single Ukraine that doesn't possess one? And even if they were to become a nuclear power again one day, why should Russia feel any more vulnerable because of that fact? Besides, they weren't a threat until the Russians disarmed them. Anyone who actually knows Ukrainian history understands perfectly why, especially given recent events, Ukraine might need to be a nuclear power—specifically one oriented against Russia.

By waging this war, Putin has essentially ensured that one day Ukraine will emerge as an even more formidable adversary than Poland—and once they align, that duo will be a massive, long-term thorn in Moscow's side. They’ve moved past their own conflicts, yet the Russians haven't quite managed to do the same. That's why they're going to get hit hard by the Poles and Ukrainians. Ultimately, all of this stems from the fact that the guy is deeply insecure about one specific reality: the realization that a unified Poland and Ukraine within NATO would serve as an impenetrable living wall against Russia, effectively crushing any fantasies of westward expansion.

They’re still playing games from WWII—and frankly, the Cold War never even truly ended. Instead, this kid stepped up and pushed the entire world to the brink of World War III. How much of a fool do you have to be to pull something like that? To do it on behalf of a nation that only recently recovered from the USSR and had finally started enjoying a semblance of normalcy—only to drag them right back into the Stone Age with this kind of policy.

At the end of the day, if anyone is responsible for this surge of anti-Russian sentiment across the West, it’s Putin and his circle of former CIA types. If he had just left Ukraine and Europe alone, we wouldn't be seeing this—simple as that. You don't exactly need a PhD to see that Americans have been waiting for an opening of this magnitude; it’s only natural they’d seize it. Their playbook is pretty clear: kick the Russians out of the game first, then move on to the Chinese. Putin should have thought about that before convinced himself that Ukraine would just fold overnight out of pure fear. He clearly miscalculated. He spent so much time cozying up to Yanukovych that he actually believed everyone else would take the path of least resistance just because of some puppet sitting in a chair.

If you take Poland and Ukraine together, you’re looking at roughly 80 million people—add in the Baltic states, and you’ve got about 85 million. Meanwhile, Russia sits at around 145 million. Aside from the nuclear arsenal, that’s pretty much the whole story. Putin actually managed to build himself a regional powerhouse just west of Moscow. A masterclass in 4D chess, really. 🤦

wiredseal7 said:Which "regimes" have we actually seen sanctions topple so far? Hardly this one—especially since they're just leaning harder into totalitarianism now. Sanctions mostly just push them further into a corner. They aren't exactly feeling any pressure from the West to stop the repression.

And if we're being honest, those planes weren't stolen—they were sanctioned. 🙂
I don't get why people are whining about the planes when "we" essentially seized hundreds of billions in assets—not just state property, but private holdings belonging to Russian citizens, even folks in the EU or Israel. In some cases, it even touches their grown children's interests.
I doubt they'd be foolish enough to hand back the planes after getting hit that hard.

The point of sanctions isn't necessarily to topple a regime overnight, but to make it more impotent and less dangerous—primarily by gutting any high-tech industry they rely on. If the American people—or rather, the Russian people in this context—don't want to go down with the ship, they can always choose to sink the regime themselves.

I understand why they're acting out over the planes; I'm just saying there's no such thing as an "easy" lifting of sanctions. Someone has to settle the tab first.

bluemason3 said:The standard of living.
Better healthcare.
Better education.
Better social services.
Superior infrastructure.
Higher quality housing and construction in general.
A freer society.
Democracy.
Freedom of speech.
Market freedom (though even in China, until the Party decides otherwise).
.
.
.

Honestly, I can't think of any metric where life in China would be better, except perhaps for the elite class.🤔

I'd also throw in:

Cleaner air.
Better food safety regulations.
Preserved nature—especially water resources.