Carl Sanders5 said:You guys are being way too optimistic about these sanctions, honestly. I’m not seeing it. Russians are used to this stuff; it's practically part of their routine. How long did the Cold War even last? Over 30 years, right? And they still functioned just fine.
There are over 30 million people living out in Siberia. Every single year, they deal with summer water shortages and three-month stretches of winter gas rationing when it hits -40. They know exactly what poverty feels like.
As for the middle class—whose quality of life is about to tank—they’re just going to bail. We're already hearing reports that trains heading from Russia toward Norway are packed to capacity.
Sure, the economy will take a massive hit in the long run, but IMO? Don't hold your breath for some big political breakthrough. It's a long shot.
The thing is, the Soviet Union went belly up when it was actually way stronger economically than Russia is today. You had the war in Afghanistan, that whole arms race with the USA, plus Chernobyl—which was basically a freak accident, not some grand strategic move.
Who cares if "Russians are used to misery." If you want to fund a war, fund an army, or fund anything at all, you need cash. And they aren't going to get it.