Posts by Kevin Morgan

Today's picks:

WBC - Stoke - WBC has been solid at home, picking up 6 wins and only one loss. They’re inconsistent, sure, but with Stoke dealing with injuries and looking shaky on the road, this feels like a perfect chance for a home win.

WBC 1 @ 2.00

Los Angeles - New Orleans - L.A. is dominant at home, and they're facing a New Orleans side that’s been pretty underwhelming this season. Just like Stoke, they struggle away from home. L.A. needs this win to stay at the top, so I don't see them blowing it.

Los Angeles 1 @ 1.80

Los Angeles Lakers - Buffalo Bills - Betting on the home team here isn't worth it—they'll probably win, but the odds are trash. Better value is betting that the Buffalo Bills won't find the back of the net. The visitors have been useless away, scoring only 3 goals in 6 games, while the Lakers have only let in one goal at home so far.

Buffalo Bills no goal @ 1.60

FC Barcelona - Atlanta Hawks - Barcelona is heating up again; goals are just flowing. Meanwhile, San Francisco has been a disappointment on the road this year, conking out with 18 goals conceded in 6 away games. They beat San Antonio earlier this week, but since they played their starters, fatigue might kick in. Barcelona's second string had an easy time against Atlanta Falcons, so I'm expecting another blowout led by Lionel Messi.

FC Barcelona(h0:2)-Atlanta Hawks @ 1.75, or if you're feeling gutsy, handicap 3 @ 2.80

LA Galaxy - Seattle Sounders - Best home team versus the worst away team. Not much to say there. It's a gift.

LA Galaxy(h0:1)-Seattle Sounders @ 1.65

Lots of options today 🙂

Seattle Sounders vs. Chicago Fire - These odds caught me off guard. Putting the home team at 1.40 feels totally disconnected from reality when you look at the standings—we're talking 6th vs 7th here. Seattle's home record is 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while Chicago is sitting at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses on the road. Honestly, Seattle doesn't deserve those heavy favorites odds. I've got a feeling Chicago shows up and walks away with at least a draw. The value on the other side is too good to pass up.

X2 @ 2.45.

Manchester United vs. QPR - It’s getting harder to read these games lately. I'm expecting a convincing win from the home side after they dropped two in a row, especially since the visitors are coming off a trip to Turkey. A single handicap on Man Utd @ 1.50 just seems like a decent enough pick to me.

Sassuolo vs. Reggina - Sassuolo is tied for first place with Livorno, barely keeping Verona off their back. They play tough at home—6 wins and 1 draw, outscoring people 12-2. Meanwhile, Reggina is just fighting to stay out of the relegation zone. I don't think they stand a chance today. I'll skip the handicap; a straight bet on the home win is plenty.

Sassuolo 1 @ 1.60

Villarreal vs. Lugo - This looks like the biggest gift on the board. The home team is undefeated at home with 5 wins and 2 draws, outscoring opponents 11-4. The visitors have been struggling, pulling 3 draws and 4 losses on the road with a measly 3-11 goal difference. Betting the home win isn't worth the risk, BUT...

Lugo fails to score @ 2.00 is basically handing money over to us.

Napoli vs. Milan. Milan’s defense is a total mess right now—they’re actually playing a midfielder at fullback because they have nobody else left. Their offense, though? Surprisingly sharp lately. I caught the Napoli game against Genoa last time. They were down 2-1, just grinding away, then managed to flip it to 3-2 in the dying minutes. That final goal came on a breakaway while Genoa was scrambling to salvage a draw.

Given how things look...

There are two ways to play this. Both teams to score @ 1.75 or if you're feeling gutsy, Cavani to score @ 2.00 (guy has put up 5 goals in his last two outings)
.

Nuremberg vs. Bayern. Betting on Bayern feels like a waste of time given the odds, but look at the scoring trends. Bayern hasn't conceded a single goal on the road this season. Meanwhile, Nuremberg has been toothless at home, only finding the net three times. Honestly, I don't see them piercing through that Bayern defense.

So, Nuremberg to fail to score @ 1.90 is a value play I'm taking.

Alright, figured I’d throw my two cents in and share my slip for today:

PSV Eindhoven vs. Heerenveen — Even though PSV hasn't been much of a threat in European play lately, they still pretty much run the show in the Netherlands. They're sitting in second, just one point behind Twente, but their goal differential is insane—they're scoring everywhere. Heerenveen is basically a home team; they haven't managed an away win all season. Meanwhile, PSV is a beast at home, going 6 for 6 with a goal difference of 24:3.
Looking back at how they matched up earlier this year:

03/21/12 - Heerenveen - PSV - 1:3

03/18/12 - PSV - Heerenveen - 5:1

I'm expecting a convincing win from PSV, so I'm taking the handicap at (h0:2) @ 2:80. Seems worth a shot. If you want something safer, go with (h0:1) @ 1:65.

Newcastle United vs. West Ham United — Both sides are dealing with a mess of injuries right now. Newcastle is missing Demba Ba, their top scorer with 7 goals, and both squads have a long list of absences. Since this is a matchup between 9th and 10th place, betting on either side to win feels impossible to me. Without their main guy, the rest of the squad has only chipped in with 5 goals total. Even though the visitors got crushed 5:0 last time they met, I think the best move is Under 3.5 goals @ 1:60

Last one, just a little extra if you're feeling it, is Atletico Madrid vs. Getafe.
Since Falcao hasn't found the net in two games, I have a feeling he's due today. I think getting 1.55 odds for Falcao to score a goal is a solid opportunity.

wiredcanyon39 said:Stabaek vs Songdal 2 @1.80
Songdal is hovering right above the relegation zone. If they mess up today, they're dropping down. Meanwhile, the home side is dead last with zero chance at survival. Honestly, this game probably doesn't even matter to them anymore. They've already checked out.

Songdal's top scorer over at U. Flo is sidelined with an injury. Looking at the "talent" on both sides here, I'm not feeling a visitor win anytime soon.