Posts by Amanda Kelly

stormybadger8 said:So who’s actually shoving or blocking Fernando Alonso before the first turn???
The only one out there aggressively pushing or closing doors is Nico Rosberg against Sebastian Vettel, but that has absolutely nothing to do with Fernando Alonso.🤷

Of course there is. Though, I didn't even bring up Fernando Alonso. Or Sebastian Vettel. You did.

So, Sebastian Vettel goes for his left side right at the start. Is that actually true?
At that exact moment, with both of them ahead and moving faster, Fernando Alonso dives toward his right side just as the gap starts to open up. That’s how it happened, right?

Then comes the shove. Rosberg pushes a faster Sebastian Vettel just to lock in a better line for turn one. Vettel swerves toward his right, completely abandoning his original trajectory. He cuts hard to the right, getting forced wide by Rosberg. By veering so sharply, they end up squeezing Fernando Alonso, who actually had the perfect line to pass them both.

stormybadger8 said:Man, there are so many "what ifs" here...
What if Romain Grosjean hadn't punctured his tire and been forced into an early pit stop, followed by two stints on mediums that just don't suit Lotus nearly as well as the hards?
What if someone had actually pushed Vettel, forcing him to really hammer the throttle? Would his tires have given out then, or not?
And what about Alonso? Would his tires have exploded like Felipe Massa's if he’d been fighting his crew at the front and driving faster with functional DRS?

Who knows...
All we know for sure is that Vettel won. He overtook Alonso before that technical glitch, pulled away well outside the DRS zone, and was clocking faster times than Alonso during the period when his DRS was working.

Honestly, before the race even started, it didn't seem like much of a question whether it would be Vettel and someone from Lotus on the podium (maybe both, or one plus Mark Webber)...
I didn't see Ferrari in the mix at all—and I'm not even being a fanboy here—but Red Bull Racing and Lotus were just exceptionally strong in Bahrain.😉
Besides, back in Malaysia, it was already obvious that Vettel (more so the guy than the Red Bull Racing car itself) absolutely loves the Medium and Hard tires. 😉
In Malaysia, he was one of those drivers who pulled off the longest stint on Mediums while maintaining blistering pace... and he did the exact same thing on the hards.😉

From where I'm sitting, the main issue for Red Bull Racing and Vettel this season is the soft compound... and those super softs are an absolute disaster for Red Bull Racing.😬
It'd be cool if there was a site listing upcoming races and their designated tire compounds... you could probably figure out who's going to be in peak form for any given race based on that.😁

Given Ferrari's technical headaches, we're basically just playing "what if" here. We can throw out our theories, but there’s no way to be certain about anything.

In China, Ferrari worked beautifully on the hard tires, which is what most of the race was run on.
So, Fernando Alonso is a lock for the podium—minimum P2, maybe even P1.
Felipe Massa is a tougher call. He had more trouble than Fernando. Sure, he had a solid start, but I wouldn't bet on him finishing much higher than P4 or P5.
That’s my take on how Ferrari would have fared if they hadn't dealt with those technical issues in Bahrain.

How good someone is in Bahrain (or anywhere else) only tells you so much. The 2012 Ferrari and this version are different beasts in some ways, so that logic doesn't really hold up for me. Tire handling, which is everything with these Pirelli tires, is night and day compared to 2012. I'm talking specifically about Ferrari, of course.
So, yeah... we can toss around ideas and theories all we want. You might be right, but you won't find a rational way to debunk what I've said.
Pat.

stormybadger8 said:See what I told you?

At the end of the day, overtaking right at the start isn't really connected to how people pass each other later in the race. It's a totally different beast...
What actually matters here is track position—whether you're on the clean side or the dirty side—and the quality of the car's launch procedure. After that, it's down to the driver and their control...

Besides, it wasn't exactly a shock that Ferrari would overtake Red Bull Racing if they had the clean side and Red Bull was stuck on the dirty side...
Honestly, it would’ve surprised me more if they hadn't passed them at the start. And frankly, I'm just glad Felipe Massa didn't lose his cool about it.🙂
Because let's be real, Ferrari is damn good off the line. Over the last few seasons, they've been better than the competition at starts roughly as much as Red Bull was better in a single qualifying lap back in 2011...
I can't even remember a single race where both Ferraris didn't gain at least one spot on the start...

If it hadn't been for that nasty squeeze and being forced wide, Fernando Alonso would have taken the lead into Turn 1 in Bahrain.

stormybadger8 said:It sounds crazy, but if you look at those Lewis Hamilton races and his DNFs, they basically decided the championship outcome. They even dictated who was actually in the title fight... and he wasn't even one of them...
And it wasn't just back in 2012... I honestly think that's the main reason he left.😳

If the timing of his retirements in 2012 had been even slightly different, the whole picture changes...
We’re talking about anything from Sebastian Vettel winning the title with way more points if Lewis Hamilton hadn't dropped out of certain races, to Fernando Alonso potentially taking the crown by a single point if Hamilton hadn't retired at the Singapore Grand Prix (assuming he could have beaten Vettel). See, the 1st-3rd standings give Vettel a 10-point cushion, but a 2nd-4th scenario would have only been a 6-point gap—that's exactly 4 crucial points swung in Alonso's favor...
And if those hadn't happened at all, Hamilton probably would've been a two-time champ...

Bottom line: these last few seasons have mostly been defined by McLaren repeatedly shooting themselves in the foot.
Sure, Red Bull Racing wasn't perfect, but they definitely made way fewer mistakes than McLaren did...
And Ferrari made the fewest blunders overall, though their screw-ups tended to happen in absolutely critical races... they were few, but man, they were brutal.😁

Here's an interesting little breakdown.
From 2010 to now...
Total retirements...

Felipe Massa - 5
Fernando Alonso - 6
Ferrari - 11

Sebastian Vettel - 6
Mark Webber - 7
Red Bull Racing - 13

Jenson Button - 9
Lewis Hamilton - 13
McLaren - 21

Obviously, it isn't all on the teams; drivers mess up too...
But looking at the numbers, everyone seems to be roughly in the same ballpark regarding the ratio of team errors to driver errors...

That's not even counting all the races where it wasn't a full retirement, but just a massive blunder—like that situation with Fernando Alonso in the final race...
But even looking just at this list, you see exactly what happened and why. Damn, Lewis Hamilton had more DNFs at McLaren than Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel combined... or even the entirety of Ferrari/Red Bull. To make matters worse, Jenson Button wasn't far off either.😳

Basically, the common narrative is that Fernando Alonso blew three titles, but the truth is Lewis Hamilton and McLaren actually blew a good chunk of them. In fact, Alonso only even got a shot at fighting for the title because of those massive failures.

It really is a shame we don't get that kind of genuine fighting more often.😢
Just imagine the first couple of laps here in Bahrain without freaking DRS, if the grid looked like this:
1. Lewis Hamilton
2. Sebastian Vettel
3. Fernando Alonso
4. Kimi Raikkonen

Those first 3 or 4 laps would have been legendary.🙏

We’re going to see plenty of that this year, more than ever before.

graniteharbor502 said:Even if his car had been functioning perfectly, would Fernando Alonso really have stood a chance against Sebastian Vettel in that final race? It seems to me that even before those issues with his DRS surfaced, the gap on the track suggested he was already struggling to bridge it.

Hold on, I actually agree—it was totally possible. Vettel looked incredible, just super aggressive in that beast of a car.
But you can't make a definitive diagnosis based on just the first couple of laps, so that part of the statement doesn't really hold water for me.
Vettel was clearly in top-tier form, while Alonso wasn't even in the frame.
So, I wouldn't bet $3.25 that Alonso wouldn't end up taking it anyway.

stormybadger8 said:Obviously.☕
Good grief, Red Bull Racing or STR, whatever... we’re talking about who actually won things during Sebastian Vettel's era and who his real rivals were.

Jenson Button took the title in a seriously competitive Red Bull RB2009, and unlike Fernando Alonso, he was actually in the hunt in 2011 too.

As far as I know, back in 2010, it was Lewis Hamilton, Mark Webber, and Jenson Button in the mix, not just Alonso.

In 2011, Alonso wasn't even in the conversation.

By 2012, Kimi Raikkonen was right there in the fight. Even if he had zero chance of actually taking the championship, he was a much more serious threat to Sebastian Vettel than Fernando Alonso ever was.☕
Whether people are playing blind or just desperate to worship the so-called "Maestro" is another story, but Sebastian Vettel primarily had to fight Lewis Hamilton to win; he was his number one rival.

Alonso has been a top-tier points collector for the last few seasons and honestly for a long time. He's like a cruiser on the track, consistently picking up points, and this points system rewards exactly that.
But in reality, Sebastian Vettel always had to fight way harder for wins against Lewis Hamilton, Jenson Button, and Kimi Raikkonen, and rarely against Fernando Alonso.😉

If you look at all this realistically, Lewis Hamilton has been Sebastian Vettel's main rival (at least up until now).☕ Whether it’s fighting for Pole or fighting for the win, it's him.
☕

Look, this year Vettel only beat Fernando Alonso when the guy was driving a broken car.
Whenever Alonso actually had decent tech, Vettel lost.
So yeah, this is finally the season where we can talk about Ferrari having actual, decent material.

steelmaker83 said:That's a lot for 4 races, but not much for 15.

You're not wrong.
Ferrari spoiled us with how reliable they've been lately.
So yeah, seeing this many mechanical failures in just a few races is starting to give me an actual ulcer.

Felipe Massa had to pit twice just to swap out that same rear right tire.
He’s claiming a bit of debris on the track caused the second issue. Honestly? I can see that.
The first incident is harder to call—could've been debris, could've been delamination.
Either way, it’s been a hell of a lot of bad luck for one single race.

Those technical glitches really cost Fernando Alonso dearly.
Finishing 8th yesterday was actually a solid result when you consider he had to deal with two unplanned pit stops and a car that felt broken for basically the whole race.

But now he’s sitting 20 points behind Kimi Räikkönen and 30 back from Sebastian Vettel. That's a massive gap to close with only four races left on the calendar.

Picking the driver is a total no-brainer, unless you count the Lotus guys. Here’s my take:

1. Vettel
2. Grosjean
3. Kimi

graniteharbor502 said:Now, take someone like Jim Clark—who, if you ask me, stands alone as the greatest driver to ever grace the asphalt—he secured two championships while piloting a truly dominant machine. Yet, does that somehow diminish his legendary status? I think not. And one shouldn't forget Ayrton Senna, who also claimed all three of his titles during the era when McLaren held an absolute stranglehold on the sport.

And at least one or two guys missed out on titles simply because their cars were made of glass.

Hell of a race. That crew was absolutely ruthless.
Vettel killed it, seriously impressive drive.
Lotus, nice work!
And Ferrari? What kind of technical disaster were they running today!? 🤷

Jerry Rogers6 said:Classic underdog behavior, haha 🤣🤣😁

See what happens when you say one or two things over the team radio? He’s already got ten different nicknames.
What’s that old saying... "It doesn't snow just to cover the hill, but to..."

Ashley Ramirez4 said:Tbf1, you're saying the guy used up all his sets, which might give Vettel an edge. I don't know, maybe—there's a chance Ferrari did that on purpose. If we look back at last year, Ferrari struggled right after their pit stops. People were saying they couldn't get the tires up to temperature, but what if it was actually just the initial surface layer? Like, maybe there's such a massive gap in how fast the rubber wears down that Red Bull hits that optimal "working" layer almost immediately, while Ferrari needs like three laps to get there. And honestly, it doesn't look like tire durability is even their issue this time.

Last year's Ferrari and this one are two different beasts. I haven't noticed any warming issues.
Fernando Alonso even admitted he pulled out of that qualifying lap near the end. They told him he was already a tenth down, and after that braking error, pushing further was just pointless. These tires aren't brand new, but they aren't shot either—especially not with this version of Ferrari.

What on earth happened with Kimi during qualifying?
Given how he looked during the FP-im and over in China, I was expecting him to be much higher up the grid.
It’s not like I’m rooting against 😁 (he’s still a massive threat), but I honestly think he’s going to be much more aggressive in tomorrow's race. To be blunt, he didn't handle today's qualifying by the book; something just went sideways. I can't quite put my finger on what held him back.
On top of that, he's got some tough teams ahead of him, which makes carving out a top spot even harder.

It’s worth noting that this marks the second straight PP Mercedes win.
Given that Nico Rosberg is sitting on a mere 12 points after three races, it’s basically like his championship starts tomorrow.

Oh, so you're planning on being a total menace tomorrow, huh?
Mercedes has stepped up their game, while Lotus seems to be falling behind.
Which means we’re looking at a straight-up showdown between Red Bull and Ferrari, with plenty of extra drama thrown in for good measure. 🙂

stormybadger8 said:Fear?🤣
Look, Amanda Kelly, personally I never actually bought into the idea of Vettel winning a title this season—not even back in 2011 literal.🤣
It’s honestly hilarious watching Ferrari actually have a great car and seeing you all finally agree it isn't a complete piece of junk, yet somehow I know by the end of the season everyone will be scrambling to invent excuses for why things didn't work out anyway...😁

Of course, the whole thing is completely upside down.
You're convinced they'll take the championship, yet you don't even know if your favorite driver will make it into Q3 today, or if he'll manage to save his tires, or if his brakes will just give out at the end of the straight...
I find it funny. Really funny. Everything except the qualifying sessions.

Ferrari is chasing the title and they have nothing to lose. They're still climbing.
Red Bull, at least in my book, has everything to lose. They're defending what they already have. Breaking a massive winning streak wouldn't sit too well with the owners or the fans.

And now, look at that—Ferrari is actually starting off surprisingly strong. It was easy enough to win when you were driving a total wreck. Then you've got a resurfacing Lotus to deal with. Even Mercedes isn't something to sneeze at with Lewis behind the wheel.
I can see the era of dominance ending. Thank God for that.

Susan Alvarez94 said:I’m all for using Chinese-style tactics. As for the fans, their logic is exhausting. Last year, Ferrari almost clinched the championship, so apparently, that wasn't good enough. Last weekend, they were absolutely dominant, yet somehow that was also wrong. Now they’re leading the practice sessions, and suddenly even that is a problem. What happens when we actually win the title? I suppose even then, it won't be sufficient for them.😕

Right. For anyone who just hates Ferrari, it’s a total win-win-win... situation.
All this extra noise is just a sign of fear.

I’m fully expecting everyone to just baby their tires during qualifying tomorrow. Typical.
A fresh set could actually be worth something when Sunday's race rolls around.

Honestly, I wouldn't mind seeing Vettel pull a stunt like he did in China again. 😁