NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Eric Fox7 said:Not really—I only pulled for them during the Jordan era because I couldn't stand Chicago, and I always had a soft spot for Stephon Marbury.

Yes, I'm old—I get it. 😢

But honestly, the NBA just isn't the same without a competitive Knicks squad. 🙂

I see. ☕

I know you can actually hold a conversation about basketball in the other sports threads sometimes—I had this impression you were a Bulls fan, when apparently it’s quite the opposite. 🤣

Joshua Garcia8 said:Just like how most people don't understand the basics.
Let me ask you:
1. Did you think that disguise would actually work?
2. Are you aware you're breaking the rules?
3. Did you really think changing your handle would change the outcome if no one was responding to the last one?
4. Goodbye. 👋

🙂

I was actually going to mention that the username sounded familiar—and no, not because of Robert De Niro. 🤣

Keith Moore21 said:Man, look at Portland—now that we're playing them, they go out and win on the road without Aldridge... and Wallace suddenly plays his best game away from home (despite all the criticism regarding his perimeter play) and just goes nuts last night (tying it up 4-4). 🙂

And not a single leg hit. 😢

Look, I care less about my parlay than I do about the fact that they finally managed an away win. 😁

Keith Moore21 said:and none of them hits were even close 😢

Look, don't act surprised—you know I’ve been riding these parlays lately. I went 4 for 13 on my recent picks, which is basically just standard procedure for me at this point. I ended up nailing Memphis, Minnesota, and Atlanta, so yeah, things are moving. 🙂

wiredcanyon39 said:Don't even act surprised—you know how I roll with these parlay bets. I went 4 for 13 today, which... yeah, pretty much exactly what you'd expect from me. I managed to nail just three picks—Memphis, Minnesota, and Atlanta—and that was about it. 🙂

So then, alright... nothing even weird about that, I guess. 🤣
So, looking at the slate for tomorrow—we've got 11 games lined up—and honestly? I’ve got a feeling we're in for a wild ride. If I had to put money on it, I'd say we're looking at at least three total upsets or straight-up draws... maybe even more if things go sideways. Just a hunch, though. ☕

Are you kidding me with this? Only three measly bucks today?! I guess I’m gonna have to start messing around with the daily specials just to see if I can scrape something together...

It seems someone managed to pick a winning pair again yesterday...

Perhaps one of these might work...
The Boston Celtics are playing under the spread... I wonder how high they'll set the line
Pierce -18
The Clippers

It seems quite certain that even when Golden State plays poorly, they still tend to possess a certain edge during those final, crucial minutes. I actually found myself needing to take a knee after that first quarter, but looking back now, I can see they simply squandered a six-point lead in just three minutes left on the clock.

James Taylor3 said:Man, honestly—it’s not even about losing the parlay for me... I’m just stoked they finally managed to pull off an away win. 😁

Look, I’ve gotta admit, they’re actually one of my favorite teams to watch this season—but man, they are so incredibly inconsistent. They play great one minute and then completely fall apart the next. 🙄
I don't think they'll be showing up on my betting slip anytime soon, I guess. 🙂

Rondo at 14.5 points? Please. If a guy gets 20 shots at him, he’ll cruise right past that line. I guess it depends on whether KG is suited up or if Rose is actually going to suit up for Chicago, but honestly, even with those variables, 15 points doesn't seem like much of a stretch for Rondo.

Man, Paul Pierce really let us down last night with that lackluster performance, shooting a measly 3-for-11 and finishing with just 10 points. He’s facing the Bulls again today, and honestly, he wasn't much better against them a few days ago, putting up only 9 points on 40% shooting. It seems like Pierce just struggles whenever he goes up against Chicago; if you look at their recent matchups, he’s only managed to break the 21-point mark once. His average over the last six head-to-head games is sitting at about 14.33 points on 39.5% shooting. Plus, Luol Deng is basically shadowing him out there, playing some elite defense and shutting down his drives to the rim, which usually forces him into tough free throw attempts. Deng is a defensive powerhouse, holding his matchups to around 33.6% on average and being super solid against isolation plays and pick-and-roll ball handlers. I really think Pierce is hitting a ceiling here, especially since he hasn't shown much spark lately, and after logging 37 heavy minutes last night, he's definitely going to be feeling the fatigue. On the flip side, Rondo has been stepping up big time, dropping over 30 points in each of his last two outings, so I expect Boston to lean heavily on him and a rested Kevin Garnett—who sat out last night's game against the Pistons. Chicago’s interior defense is pretty shaky, mostly because Boozer is struggling defensively, allowing opponents to shoot over 50% (52.8%) in the post, so we might see a repeat of what happened a couple of nights ago. Good luck everyone!
Paul Pierce
under 18.5 points @ 1.85 SS

Goodness, I wonder where the rest of the team's equipment has disappeared to.
It seems they are taking quite an extensive amount of time to get organized; one can only hope the project actually moves forward at all.

Jeremy Kelly3 said:Seriously—where are those expansion plans for the arena?
What’s taking them so long? Is this project even actually happening?

Well, first they have to get the permits sorted over by the waterfront—then our guys can finally move in...😁

Gut feeling over spreadsheets here. My instinct points toward these:

Pierce P(-18.5+)-CHI-BOS Over
Allen R(-14.5+)-CHI-BOS Over
Rondo R(-14.5+)-CHI-BOS Over

Alright, let's see if we can actually pull some wins from the betting books today, shall we?😍

Boozer over 15.5 at +85
Paul over 18.5 at +85
Wallace over 17.5 at +85
Rondo over 14.5 at +85
Allen over 14.5 at +85 on DraftKings🙂

Terry Cook48 said:Once they get those barriers set up, our crew will be able to move in and take over.😁

It seems they will be needing quite a bit more time to get everything sorted out.
If someone actually cracked the code for an over/under formula, I wouldn't be surprised if the sportsbook shut down their operations entirely.
I find myself quite at a loss for words at this particular moment. 🙂

Nicholas Chase34 said:Shout out to Boston 👏, I really thought they’d pull something together, but without KG, they just look lost.

👍 🙂

Honestly, I'm pretty happy with how things shook out yesterday. The Pistons played their hearts out—had three guys drop over 20—while Boston looked totally disjointed. Only Rondo actually showed up at the level you'd expect...

Looks like you've got a bit of a grudge against Pierce, huh 😁 ...so, what's your take on the rest of today's slate?

For me, I'm feeling...

Rondo over 14.5 (assuming Rose sits out, which, honestly, my gut tells me he will 🤷 ...but we'll have to wait and see)

Portland vs. LA Clippers: Pick the Clippers by 2...even though they're facing the Spurs the day after tomorrow, I think there's enough friction and motivation here to make them take this one seriously. Sure, they finally snapped that ugly six-game losing streak against Portland with a home win recently, only to drop one on the road right after, but I think they'll be locked in this time. Now, Portland is dealing with a brutal b2b2b stretch after that weird home loss to the Wizards and last night's tight win in Oakland. Honestly, that Oakland win didn't blow me away; they still can't buy a shot from the field. Felton and Matthews have been ghosts for a while now, and Crawford isn't exactly lighting it up either. They relied heavily on the three-pointer last night to stay in it, but who knows if that luck holds tonight. 🤷
The Clippers have a packed schedule too. This is their second game in two nights—though last night wasn't exactly a heavyweight fight, they cruised through it—and they've got the Spurs coming up next. I think they've focused enough to prep for this stretch, and if they sweep these, they could lock up that #2 seed in the West. Injury-wise, I think missing Aldridge for Portland hurts way more than Billups being out for the Clippers. Billups has been sidelined for a minute anyway, and they've managed to patch things up okay with Kenyon Martin.

It would be great if you could drop that little graphic like you did yesterday so we can compare the numbers again. 🙂

Portland:--------------------------L.A.Clippers:

C Camby/K.Thomas----------------D.Jordan
PF G.Wallace----------------------B.Griffin/R.Evans
SF Batum-------------------------C.Butler/R.Gomes
SG Matthews/JCrawford------------R.Foye/K.Martin
PG Felton -------------------------C.Paul/M.Williams

Same questions, every single day.

Jeremy Kelly3 said:it’s going to take them a while...
Unless someone actually cracked the code on an over/under formula—in which case the sportsbook probably just shut it down.
I don't even know what to think anymore.🙂

Subtract the 7-8 hour time difference from the US and you'll realize that in some parts of the country, the sun hasn't even come up yet.

They especially tend to push those lines out on games where a key player—or several—is sitting out with an injury.

analoghound21 said:Portland vs. L.A. Clippers...so, even though they’ve got the Spurs coming up the day after tomorrow, I’m thinking there’s plenty of enough friction and motivation against Portland for them to take this one seriously—I mean, sure, they finally snapped that six-game skid against Portland with a home win recently, but then they went and dropped one on the road right after, so I reckon they’ll be looking to prove something tonight. As for Portland, they’re staring down their third game in a b2b2b stretch following that weird home loss to the Wizards and last night's nail-biter in Oakland; honestly, though, that win didn't blow me away. They’re still struggling big time with field goal percentages—Felton and Matthews have been pretty much non-existent lately, and Crawford isn't exactly lighting it up either. They got lucky with some three-point shooting last night to keep things even, but who knows if that luck holds out tonight. 🤷
And the Clippers have a pretty jam-packed schedule these days—this is their second game in a back-to-back situation (though last night wasn't exactly a heavyweight bout, just a routine win where they cruised through), and they face the Spurs soon after. That said, I suspect they’re zeroing in on these next two games because if they pull them off, they could snag that #2 seed in the West. Injury-wise, I’d say losing Aldridge is a way bigger deal for Portland than losing Billups for the Clippers, especially since Billups has been out for a bit and they’ve managed to patch things up somewhat with Kenyon Martin.

It would actually be pretty cool if you threw in that little graphic like you did yesterday, just so we can eyeball the stats again. 🙂

Portland:--------------------------L.A.Clippers:

C Camby/K.Thomas----------------D.Jordan
PF G.Wallace----------------------B.Griffin/R.Evans
SF Batum-------------------------C.Butler/R.Gomes
SG Matthews/JCrawford------------R.Foye/K.Martin
PG Felton -------------------------C.Paul/M.Williams

Personally, I’m leaning toward the Clippers here, mostly just because of Portland being on that brutal b2b2b run...
Looking at the numbers, it’s kind of all over the place. For instance, Portland is actually decent at defending the transition, which is basically the Clippers' biggest weapon. On the flip side, they aren't great at defending isolation plays, and I think Paul and Williams might really exploit Felton there, since he isn't exactly known for being a defensive powerhouse. Another thing for the Clippers is the PF spot—I mean, respect to Wallace, but he might be feeling the fatigue tonight, given the heavy minutes he's playing and how he's playing a position that isn't quite his natural fit, especially going up against beasts like Griffin plus having Martin coming off the bench.

The Pacers are facing some serious opposition today. I’m watching Paul go head-to-head with Pier; it's a tight matchup. Honestly, I'm just sitting here waiting for that 9.5 line—or whatever the spread ends up being—on the Nets to drop. 🙂

Keith Moore21 said:I’m actually feeling the Clippers too, mostly because they're playing back-to-back-to-back in Portland...
Regarding the stats, it's all over the place. For instance, Portland is killing it at defending the transition, which is basically the Clippers' biggest offensive weapon. But then again, their isolation defense is trash, and if Paul and Williams end up stuck guarding someone like Felton—who isn't exactly a defensive powerhouse—we're in trouble. Another thing for the Clippers is that Power Forward spot. Look, I respect Wallace, I really do, but he’s going to be gassed. Between this brutal schedule and his heavy minutes, playing a position that isn't even natural for him? It’s tough, especially when you've got monsters like Griffin or Martin coming off the bench ready to eat him alive...

That's the gist 👍

I'm weighing the Paul over (or maybe even that one from Arthur Hill2, that duel between Paul and Pierce against Chris🤷) versus Gerald under

@Arthur Hill2/">@@Arthur Hill2... let me know about Rose once you hear something 😬

Coach Tom Thibodeau mentioned that a specialist is working closely on Rose's recovery process as he deals with those lower back spasms that have kept him out of action for three consecutive games. Honestly, it wouldn't be much of a shocker if Rose stays on the sidelines for Thursday night's matchup against the Celtics.

"He's still day-to-day," Thibodeau noted. "He's just not quite there yet. We'll evaluate his status as we go. He has shown improvement every single day, so we're staying optimistic about the progress." K.C. Trib

Latest update: we should definitely have a definitive answer about an hour before tip-off.

analoghound21 said:I’m feeling pretty good about how things shook out yesterday; the Pistons played out of their minds, with three guys dropping over 20, whereas Boston looked totally disjointed—honestly, Rondo was the only one playing at an elite level...

Looks like you're still a bit salty about Pierce... but what's your take on the rest of today's slate?

So far, I'm liking where my head is at...

Rondo over 14.5 (assuming Rose doesn't suit up, and I have a strong hunch he'll be sitting out 🤷 ...but we'll just have to wait and see)

Portland vs. LA Clippers, over 2...even though they've got the Spurs coming up next, I think there's enough grit and motivation here for them to take this matchup seriously against Portland. Even though they finally snapped that nasty six-game losing streak against the Blazers with a home win recently, only to drop one on the road right after, I really think they'll come out hungry this time. On the flip side, Portland is staring down a brutal triple-back-to-back situation after a surprising home loss to the Wizards and that tight win in Oakland last night—which, if I'm being real, didn't impress me much; they're still struggling big time with their perimeter shooting, especially Felton and Matthews who have been cold for a minute, and Crawford isn't exactly lighting it up either. They leaned heavily on the three-ball last night to stay in it, but who knows if that magic holds up tonight. 🤷
The Clippers have a packed schedule lately; this is their second game in two nights (though they cruised through a relatively easy opponent last night), and they face the Spurs the day after. I reckon they've stayed locked in to prep for this stretch, because if they pull these wins, they're looking at the #2 seed in the West. Injury-wise, I think missing Aldridge is going to hurt Portland way more than missing Billups will for the Clippers, since Billups has been out for a while and they've managed to bridge the gap with Kenyon Martin.

It would be awesome if you could drop that comparison graphic like you did yesterday so we can eyeball the stats again. 🙂

Portland:--------------------------L.A.Clippers:

C Camby/K.Thomas----------------D.Jordan
PF G.Wallace----------------------B.Griffin/R.Evans
SF Batum-------------------------C.Butler/R.Gomes
SG Matthews/JCrawford------------R.Foye/K.Martin
PG Felton -------------------------C.Paul/M.Williams

I'm with you on both picks👍

Pierce goes under the line according to the books today😍

If Rose sits—and based on the latest buzz, his availability is super shaky—Rondo is going to have a field day driving to the hoop, considering he racked up 14 points just from layups in the last game against the Bulls.


As you can see, the Blazers are actually quite dangerous in the post, both offensively and defensively, thanks to Aldridge, who hits 42.6% of his shots from that spot.
Now that Wallace is moving up to the four, he's playing more of an all-around game rather than just being a post specialist. The Clippers are definitely going to have to keep an eye on him in transition because he's surprisingly efficient there.
Batum could really stir things up since he’s such a specialist at hitting those open shots and making smart cuts toward the rim. Honestly, the Clippers are going to need to stay super sharp against the Blazers because they have a bunch of guys who just love to feast on spot-up threes and run hard in transition.

Griffin might actually have one of those massive scoring nights, mostly because Wallace isn't exactly a lockdown presence in the paint—you saw how easily someone like Lee dropped 29 points on him yesterday.



The Clippers should definitely try to capitalize on Aldridge being out of the lineup, especially since he was basically their whole foundation for both defense and offense; his absence is going to be felt big time when teams start running pick-and-rolls, where he’s usually elite at protecting the hoop. In my book, Portland is going to struggle big time dealing with Paul and Griffin in those situations, and the Blazers are likely going to have a tough time matching up against the length and height the Clippers bring to the floor.🤷