NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Keith Moore21 said:Not really feeling it, I guess. 🤣
I mean, I see what you're getting at. It’s actually not a bad call, honestly. Maybe we could cook up some sort of niche system just to plug in a benchwarmer or two, just in case someone actually steps up and delivers. Just a little something to have in our back pocket, I guess. 🙂

I’ve just been messing around a bit over the last week, you know, nothing too intense or anything. But honestly? I think I could actually put together a pretty solid lineup tonight if I really sat down and focused on it. 😉

wiredcanyon39 said:I’ve been playing around a bit over the last week—nothing super intense, just messing around—but honestly, I feel like if I actually sat down tonight, I could probably put together something pretty legit. 😉

Maybe we can cook up a little scheme... just to get ahead, you know? I mean, nothing too crazy, just some way to come out on top. 😉
Alright, I'm out—gotta go deal with some endless typing. 👋

I have been analyzing the player point totals over the last three days, and I suppose the split between the under and the over sits at roughly 46 to 16.☕

feels pretty good to me today :

Kevin Love over 23.5
Dwight Howard over 21.5
Russell Westbrook over 23.5

love is a killer, maybe if he gets decent minutes and a decent shot he clears this easy...
howard's shooting seems a bit stuck lately, probably just because everyone's hitting crazy threes, maybe Philly could shut that down since nobody can deal with it.. there might be more space for howard to get his shots up and pass this... he dropped 17 on the road even with bad shooting
westbrook..everyone knows houston is terrible at defending guards, he scores a ton on the road, should go over... :/

Kevin Love, the Minnesota Timberwolves' big man in the paint, is staring down the Charlotte Bobcats tonight, and word on the street is DJ Augustin might be heading back into the rotation. This actually works out pretty nicely for us because if the game stays competitive instead of turning into a total blowout, we’re looking at a better chance of seeing less minutes for Love.
Last season, Love absolutely tore it up against the Bobcats, dropping a massive 35 points while being incredibly efficient from the floor (shooting 11-16 FG, 3-5 3PT, and an almost perfect 10-11 from the line). He should have a relatively smooth ride today too, since Charlotte's defense is pretty shaky when it comes to defending post-ups (#29), spot-ups (#28), and one of the Wolves' primary weapons, the pick-and-roll (#26).
Looking at the numbers, Kevin Love gets most of his looks from post-ups (22%), spot-ups (15.5%), offensive rebounds (14.5%), and the pick-and-roll (13.3%). Honestly, I just see him dominating here; I don't see how anyone stops his post-up game or his pick-and-roll action with Rubi, and he’ll likely rack up some easy put-backs since Charlotte isn't exactly known for being a rebounding powerhouse.
Kevin Love>
over 23,5 points @ 1,85

Kevin Martin, the starting shooting guard for Houston, is finding himself spending more and more time riding the pine lately as coach Kevin McHale experiments with different rotations. Just last night against Memphis, Martin only logged 19 minutes and went totally cold, finishing with zero points on three attempts. There's been some chatter about potential back issues, too, but regardless, tonight's matchup against Oklahoma is a tall order—they've got one of the stingiest backcourts in the league, with Russell Westbrook and Cook doing a stellar job defensively (especially with Sefolosh sidelined). When you break down Martin's shot selection, he relies heavily on isolation (22.1%), spot-ups (20%), transition buckets (17.4%), off-screen moves (15.3%), and acting as the ball handler in pick-and-rolls (11.6%). If you look at how Oklahoma defends those specific areas, they're tough across the board (ranking #2 against isolations, #15 against spot-ups, #19 in transition, #1 against off-screens, and #19 in pick-and-roll defense). Even though Martin put up 13 and 16 points against them in his last two outings with full minutes, now that the coach is messing with his playing time, the under feels like a really solid play to me. Good luck!
Kevin Martin>>
under 20,5 points @ 1,85

The Lakers really came through for me yesterday, so I’m feeling pretty good about riding that wave today by putting my money on both the Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma. 🙂

I’m telling you guys, just take the over on Kevin Love being above 23.5 points! Seriously, why are we even debating this? Look at the matchup, look at how he plays, and tell me he isn't going to absolutely tear it up tonight. You really think he stays under that number? I don't think so! It’s almost too easy, right? Just grab it and go!
Are you kidding me right now? You really think Russell Westbrook is gonna drop more than 22.5 points at those odds? I mean, look, I love the guy's energy, I really do, but man, asking him to clear that line feels like a massive gamble when you consider how much defensive attention he gets every single night! Is he going to go beast mode and just bulldoze his way to the rim, or is he gonna struggle against a heavy rotation? I don't know, man, it's such a toss-up! I'm sitting here staring at the spread thinking, "Is this actually a smart play or am I just being blinded by the hype?" It’s one of those situations where you just want to scream because it's so unpredictable!
Man, I'm telling you right now, if you aren't taking Scola over 14.5 points, what are you even doing with your life? Seriously, are you just throwing money into a shredder at this point? He’s playing out of his mind lately and honestly, looking at those stats, he’s practically a walking bucket. You really think he stops before he hits that mark? Please. It’s almost a joke at this point!
I mean, come on, are we seriously looking at the Wall under 19.5 at 1.75? Is that even worth the juice? I don't know, man, it feels like one of those bets where you just stare at the screen waiting for something ridiculous to happen. You ever get that feeling where the odds just look... off? Like, I'm sitting here staring at these numbers and I can't help but wonder if anyone actually thought this through before putting it out there! It’s just wild, honestly.
Man, I am telling you right now, if you aren't taking Garnett under 14.5 points on the HL line, what are you even doing with your life? Seriously, what is the logic there? You look at the matchups and the recent stretches, and it just feels like such a massive oversight by the oddsmakers, you know? Like, how can they set the bar that high when he’s been playing so inconsistally lately? It’s almost insulting! I don't care what anyone says, I'm riding with the under on this one all day long. Is it a gamble? Maybe. But is it a smart play? Absolutely. Why would you bet against the inevitable dip in production here? I'm telling you, grab that under before the line shifts and we're all sitting here kicking ourselves!

Just one folk classic!🤷

I mean, seriously, can we talk about how ridiculous this is? We’re looking at Tony Parker and he’s sitting there with those stats—under 18.5? Are you kidding me right now? Like, how does anyone even look at his height and those numbers and think that's a reasonable line to set? It's absolute madness! You see these kinds of lines thrown around and you just want to throw your remote at the TV, you know what I mean? It makes zero sense when you actually sit down and think about the player!
Man, I am telling you right now, if you aren't taking Iguodala under 13.5, what are you even doing with your life? Seriously, like, are you actually watching the games or just staring at the wall? He’s playing at a level where he’s barely touching those numbers lately, and honestly, why would anyone bet against it? It’s such a lock, it’s almost insulting that people are even debating this. You look at his recent stats and it just doesn't add up for him to go over—it’s just not happening! Is anyone else seeing this, or am I just shouting into the void here? Just take the under and stop overthinking it!
I mean, seriously, can we talk about the height situation here? Like, Paul Pierce is clearly standing at 6'1" or whatever, but people are out here acting like he’s some massive giant when he’s really just a regular guy. Why does everyone get so worked up over a few inches? It’s honestly ridiculous how much people obsess over these tiny details instead of just watching the game!
Man, I cannot believe we're actually looking at Aaron Gordon under 14.5 points per game... seriously? Are we even watching the same sport here? Like, how does that even happen? You look at his athleticism, you look at what he brings to the floor, and then you see a stat line like that and you just want to throw your remote at the TV! It makes zero sense, right? Is it the usage? Is it the coaching? I don't even know anymore, my head is spinning just thinking about it!
I mean, seriously, can we just talk about this for a second? I’m talking 6'1" and weighing in at around 195 pounds—yeah, that’s me—and I'm gay, so if anyone's wondering, there it is! Is it really that big of a deal to just put it out there? Why does everyone act like everything has to be some huge, complicated thing when you can just say what's up and move on? Honestly, life's too short to play these weird guessing games, right? Just being real, being myself, and getting on with things!
Man, can we talk about how ridiculous this is? Like, seriously, look at the stats! Jeremy Lin is sitting there under 23.5 points despite being only 1.85 meters tall? How does that even happen? You’d think someone with that kind of height wouldn't be tearing it up like this, but here we are! It makes you wonder if the scouts were just completely sleeping on him or what? Is it just me, or is everyone else missing the obvious here? Just absolutely wild stuff.
I mean, seriously, can we just talk about how insane it is that Kevin Durant is putting up more than 27.5 points on 1.85 efficiency? Like, is this even real life? How does a guy even do that? You look at the numbers and your brain just kind of shorts out because it shouldn't be possible to be that consistent and that lethal at the same time! It’s absolutely ridiculous!
I mean, seriously, can we talk about how much Jennings is absolutely crushing it lately? He’s sitting right there at over 18.5 points per game, and honestly, who even doubted him? I'm looking at those numbers and thinking, is he actually playing at this level consistently now, or are we just witnessing a massive heater? Because man, if he keeps dropping stuff like this, the whole league is gonna have to rethink their defensive schemes against him! It's wild, isn't it?
I mean, seriously? We’re really going to sit here and act like Magic Johnson being under 18.5 is some kind of shocker? Like, come on! He’s sitting there at 6'1", and you're telling me we shouldn't have seen that coming? It’s almost insulting how much people overthink these stats when the numbers are staring you right in the face! Is anyone even watching the games anymore, or are we all just guessing wildly? Honestly, it's ridiculous.
I mean, seriously? Are we really looking at the stats like this now? You’re telling me Chris Paul is sitting there under 18.5? And what about that height, 1.85? Like, come on! Does anyone actually believe those numbers hold up when you see him out on the court playing his game? It just doesn't add up, man! Who even comes up with these ridiculous metrics? It’s honestly driving me crazy just thinking about it!
I’m telling you right now, if you aren't looking at that -9.5 spread for the Milwaukee-New Orleans game, what are you even doing with your life? Seriously! You look at those odds—1.85 on the HL—and you just know things are heating up. It feels like one of those matchups where everything could just explode, you know? I can't stop thinking about how unpredictable these teams have been lately. Are we really supposed to believe they'll cover nearly ten points? I don't know, man, I just feel it in my gut! It's gonna be a wild ride, mark my words!

I mean, seriously, can we even talk about how the whole system just completely broke down on 9/11? It’s like, you look back at everything that happened and you have to wonder—was it all just one massive, systemic failure from top to bottom? I’m sitting here thinking about it, staring at the screen, wondering if anyone actually had a grip on things or if we were all just flying blind while the entire foundation of our national security crumbled right in front of us! How does a breakdown of that magnitude even happen without people noticing the cracks forming earlier? It feels like a total meltdown of the protocols we were told would keep us safe, you know? Like, what was the actual plan, because it clearly wasn't working! It makes you want to scream just thinking about the sheer chaos and the way everything shifted overnight. Is it just me, or does the whole structure feel like it was built on sand?🙂

I’m thinking West should go over too, but what about Durant at 28.5? Personally, I’m leaning toward the under on that one... anyone else?

Greivis Vasquez over 17.5 in Madison, Magic Johnson against the Phoenix Suns over 17.5, and honestly? Screw them all. ☕

Scott Jackson said:I’m also leaning towards West hitting the over, but what do you guys think about Durant at 28.5? Personally, I’m feeling more of an under than an over on that one... anyone else?

Look, you’ve got Kevin Durant in the HL at 27.5, so just put the money down because man, that guy can go off any second! Plus, let's be real, Durant averages 28.8 against Houston, and like I was saying yesterday, he takes way more shots from deep—around 20 per game.🤷, honestly, when I play him at home, I always bet the under because he almost never clears it,🤷,but when he's on the road, he hits the over all the time.☕,And I really think our buddy here is gonna drop 25+ without even breaking a sweat since he's actually in better shape than Durant right now!😉

stormyseal9 said:If you see Kevin Durant at 27.5 in the HL, just take it. That line hits way more often than people think. Besides, Durant is averaging 28.8 against the Houston Rockets. Like I said yesterday, he’s taking a ton of shots from deep—around 20 per game...🤷I always bet the under on him at home because he rarely goes over🤷,but on the road, he consistently clears the over☕. Honestly, I think his buddy will drop 25+ easily since he's actually in better shape right now😉

That’s exactly why I took the 28.5. I think the under is more likely. They’ve played twice already and he put up 26 or 27. This time, I'm expecting even less. He isn't feeling it, and the West could really push back... even though I know he plays better on the road, and it might stay neck-and-neck until the end. If he gets hot, he'll hit 49 instead of 29... but still... 🙂

If only Pinnacle would set the line at -3.5 for the Golden State Warriors as an SS—that would be the dream. Given their current slump, the Portland Trail Blazers' struggles, the back-to-back fatigue factor, their terrible home record against Golden State, and the fact that LaMarcus Aldridge isn't even playing...

I’d be heavily backing that. 🙂

James Taylor3 said:If only Pinnacle would set the line at -3.5 for the Golden State Warriors as an SS—that’d be the dream. Given how bad they've been playing, the Blazers' terrible form, those back-to-back struggles, their awful home record against the Warriors, and the fact that LaMarcus Aldridge isn't even playing...

I'd probably hammer that. 🙂

They're offering -5.5 at 1.89

33w/32l ; +36,258 units ; ROI: +11.37%

Golden State Warriors - Portland Trail Blazers
Pick: Golden State Warriors -5.5

Odds: 2.00

Betting Shop: Pinnacle

Unit: 9/10

Here is what I wrote three weeks ago when these two squads faced off:

James Taylor3 said:This is Portland's third game in three days—a classic back-to-back-to-back stretch. They picked up two wins at home, but now they’re heading on the road to face the Warriors, who have dominated them on their own floor, winning 10 of the last 11 matchups. Portland struggles significantly on the road when playing on zero rest; they've been a 1-4 team in those specific scenarios this season. That said, they played both previous days leading up to this. They handled the Memphis Grizzlies easily last night, though every starter logged over 30 minutes.
Portland is arguably the more talented roster compared to Golden State, but let's not forget how the Phoenix Suns looked during a back-to-back—a dismal 25-point blowout loss.

However, Golden State is much better rested. They've only played twice in the last six days and they're at home, where they historically feast on the Blazers. Monta Ellis has been in incredible form lately, averaging a massive 32.3 points against Portland over their last four meetings. Plus, Stephen Curry is back in the lineup, which changes everything—especially since he always produces against Portland. On the flip side, LaMarcus Aldridge has averaged a mere 13.9 points in his last seven road trips to face the Warriors, coupled with poor shooting splits.
Furthermore, Portland is far less effective away from home, scoring an average of 13 fewer points than they do in their own arena—that's a significant gap.

I expect high-scoring outings from Ellis and Curry, as Paul Matthews and especially Nelson Felton won't be able to contain them. Other matchups should remain competitive. Ben Wallace dealt with some minor finger issues last night, but he should still be dominant against Tyler Wright on both ends of the court. Aldridge holds the edge over Lee defensively—and significantly so—though the advantage is narrower on the offensive end.

Ultimately, this pick is based on the Blazers' fatigue, their poor performance in these types of situations, and the Warriors' consistent home dominance in this head-to-head series.

Golden State ended up winning that one, 101-93.

Looking ahead to today's matchup, the factors I mentioned earlier still hold water—specifically Portland's disparity between home and road performance and their struggles on back-to-backs.
Additionally, they are missing their best player, LaMarcus Aldridge, due to a wrist injury. He's easily one of the top three power forwards in the league this season. You could see the impact of his absence last night; they dropped a 15-point game at home to a mediocre Washington Wizards squad.
Moreover, other players saw heavy workloads, such as Mewitt Batum and Ben Wallace, who logged 43 and 42 minutes respectively.
Similarly, Mikkel McConnell is likely to continue rotating the starting five, pulling ineffective players like Nelson Felton and Paul Matthews for Tim Crawford and Mewitt Batum.

And let's not ignore the momentum: Golden State has won 12 of their last 13 matchups against Portland at home. The Warriors are healthy, playing well, and riding a three-game win streak where they scored over 100 points in every contest (102, 106, 109). They also had a day of rest before today.

So, I'm leaning heavily into this one.

Yeah, everything points toward a Golden State Warriors win tonight just like James Taylor3 said, but we gotta mention that the Portland Trail Blazers are on a brutal b2b2b stretch. This is their second game in a row, and they have to fly back home tomorrow to face a tough Clippers squad. That's a hell of a lot of miles in a tiny window of time.

That being said, I still wouldn't touch the Warriors here; a 5.5 spread feels way too wide to me. Not having LaMarcus Aldridge is definitely a handicap, but honestly, like James Taylor3 pointed out, he hasn't exactly been tearing it up against Golden State Warriors lately anyway, so maybe it isn't even that big of a deal. Mewitt Batum and Ben Wallace are gonna have to step up and carry more weight, and Mewitt Batum played an absolute heater last night, so I don't really believe the Warriors' defense is gonna shut him down tonight. Losing LaMarcus Aldridge was a total shock to them right at tip-off last night—or at least that’s how Marcus Camby put it: "I think when he went down the life went out of us," center Marcus Camby said. "It's sad but true." But man, that shouldn't be the deciding factor tonight.
For me, this is a no bet.
Maybe I'll grab the over 197...

Paul Pierce
over 18.5 points @ 1.85

I’m really feeling this pick because since Kevin Garnett is sitting this one out—which honestly sounds like a perfect chance for him to recharge before they face the Chicago Bulls tomorrow—someone else from the squad is going to have to step up and carry the load, and that falls right on Paul Pierce's shoulders. Pierce is basically the kind of guy who will hunt down a shot from pretty much anywhere on the court, especially those spot-up jumpers which make up about 19.3% of his game. That happens to be the exact Achilles' heel for today's opponents, the Detroit Pistons, who have been looking absolutely lost when trying to defend spot-ups, isolation plays, or even off-screen movement, which is usually Ray Allen's bread and butter. I can see Pierce getting plenty of looks from spot-up situations, but he'll likely tear it up in transition too, and Detroit is ranked 25th in defending that, which isn't great. Since KG isn't on the floor, expect Pierce to lean more heavily on working with Rajon Rondo through those pick-and-roll sets. Honestly, Detroit looks like a dream matchup for the Boston Celtics when you look at how the tactical pieces fit together for both offense and defense.
I'm expecting Paul Pierce to drop at least 20 points on us. ☕

Chris Forsberg: Getting an update from my buddy Peter May over here: KG actually made it through the shootaround, so he’s been bumped up to a probable status. Also, Pietrus says he'll Play vs. Pistons. Just heard this about 12 minutes ago!

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