2016 Car Launch and Pre-season Testing

jadeseal7 said:Well, you have to pull the data first before drawing any conclusions. It’s easy to say Rosberg could hit a 1:24.8 in the McLaren-Honda with 20kg of fuel, while Vettel was doing a 1:24.9 yesterday on the exact same component with more or less fuel, so...

Race simulations were performed.
http://ticker.auto-motor-und-sport.de/?id=359

In those race sims, Rosberg was consistently faster than Vettel.
And we're talking over a second per lap faster, using the same tires.

jadeseal7 said:McLaren-Honda could only move forward; there was nowhere else to go but up.

Exactly. And their progress is actually more noticeable than Ferrari's.
For McLaren-Honda, the goal is to escape the back of the pack.
For Ferrari, the goal is to win the championship.

Who is closer to achieving their objective? I'll leave that for everyone to decide for themselves.

jadeseal7 said:AlphaTauri is running last year's Ferrari Engine, which was pretty reliable, so I don't see anything revolutionary happening there.

That's an uninformed fan comment.

fadedwalker18 said:Trying to estimate McLaren based on last year's early season results (mileage) is a total mistake.

As I said:
McLaren-Honda wants to get out of the back.
Ferrari wants the title.

Who is getting closer to their goal? I'll let you all draw your own conclusions.

stormybadger8 said:That would imply the Bear is at least a full second faster than Ferrari, assuming Rosberg was actually pushing to the limit... which I seriously doubt is even remotely the case.

All things considered, this season is looking way worse than last year when it comes to how much the Bear is dominating everything...
And honestly, Ferrari is going to be busy fighting off AlphaTauri and Williams rather than actually chasing down Mercedes...

If anything, Red Bull might have a shot if they can actually pull something clever out of their sleeve with that "Tag" engine...
But beyond that, there's just no way, not even in some crazy alternate reality.

Look, Seb is happy with it, and he clearly knows what he's talking about:
http://www.gazzetta.it/Formula-1/23-...66017435.shtml
Vettel Smile: "A step forward, the Ferrari is responding well"

Jason Campbell70 said:They were running some race sims.
http://ticker.auto-motor-und-sport.de/?id=359

In those simulations, Nico Rosberg was consistently putting up laps that were faster than Sebastian Vettel's.
We're talking about a gap of over a second per lap—and that’s on the exact same tire compound.

I could only find two data points to go on—Sebastian Vettel clocked 23 laps while Nico Rosberg did 14—which doesn't really give us the full story since Sebastian was clearly running a much heavier fuel load. I'm not quite fluent in German, so if you were looking at a different stint than the one I found, feel free to paste it here.

Jason Campbell70 said:Exactly, and their rate of improvement seems much more pronounced than Ferrari's.
For McLaren-Honda, the goal is simply to climb out of the back of the pack.
For Ferrari, the goal is to win the championship.

Well, climbing away from the tail end is a lot easier than trying to snatch a title when you're facing a level of dominance we haven't seen since 1988.

Jason Campbell70 said:That sounds like a comment coming from a biased fan perspective.

I don't quite see what you mean by that; the reality is that Ferrari's Engine was solid and reliable last year, so I don't understand why the AlphaTauri lap count is such a shocker. It's actually pretty expected, especially when you consider that AlphaTauri is a very capable outfit—they did a fantastic job over the last few seasons, so they can only go up from here this year.

@Jell, does anyone actually have a clue what that weird pointy contraption near the Mercedes sidepods is supposed to be? And what’s the deal with their nose design—it looks like they finally have something decent going on... unless the deficit is so massive that even they're thinking about ditching it (just like Ferrari did)?

Christian Harris11 said:Does anyone have a clue what that sharp little invention near the Mercedes sidepods is? And what on earth are they doing with the nose design—they're the only ones with something decent looking... or is there such a massive deficit there that even they are abandoning it (just like Ferrari did)?

They're tinkering with the floor. They’ve come up with something dangerously clever regarding the floor design, and it’s all interconnected. I suspect they’ve stumbled upon something superior, though I can't quite put my finger on the specifics just yet. But believe me, there will be plenty of talk about this on the BU soon enough.

After watching today, I’m feeling a tiny bit more pessimistic than I was yesterday. It all comes down to Force India looking dangerously fast, while Mercedes might just be even faster...🙄
I don't buy the idea that the gap between the ultrasoft and supersoft tires in Barcelona is actually massive, either. Last year in Barcelona, the difference between the supersoft and the soft felt pretty similar to this.
Ferrari probably closed the gap by a hair, but honestly, it isn't enough. McLaren-Honda seems to be stuck with the exact same deficit, and if you ask me, Arai being let go is a clear sign that nothing is changing this year.
The current engine regulations basically freeze any major progress. These tokens? They're nothing but a PR stunt designed to feed fans a little bit of hope. If anyone actually thinks someone is catching up to Mercedes, they're clearly looking at these tokens 😁

I was just sitting here listening closely to the engine notes, hoping they might actually sound decent in the broadcast without needing a bunch of digital filters. It sounds like Honda and Ferrari have found a much better tone this time around, whereas Mercedes honestly sounds exactly the same as last year... I can't help but wonder if they're just playing it safe by testing an old spec or maybe a partial update, which is what people are whispering about regarding Ferrari too.

The rumors about the shake-up over at Honda don't exactly sound promising for them.

Everything feels a bit disorganized right now, and even though a few things have leaked, it doesn't feel like we've actually seen anything substantial yet.

jadeseal7 said:I only found two references.

That’s exactly two references more than what you actually stated.

jadeseal7 said:I don't see the issue here. The fact remains that Ferrari's engine was solid and reliable last year, so why the surprise at AlphaTauri's lap counts? It’s exactly what you'd expect. Plus, let's not forget that AlphaTauri is a strong outfit; they did an incredible job over the last few seasons, so they can only go up from here.

AlphaTauri picked up a new engine supplier, and they’ve integrated it into a pretty radical rear-end design.
There are far more unknowns here than what we saw with Ferrari and the SF16. Back then, at least we knew the engine. This? It's a complete mystery.

Wasn't it Carlos Sainz who ran into gearbox issues? I believe that's what forced him to pull out of yesterday's testing.
It’s that classic growing pain. You know, exactly the kind of friction you see when a team is trying to find its footing with something completely new and untested. Is it always going to be this messy? Perhaps.

Given the current situation, Ferrari simply has to outpace AlphaTauri by a significant margin.
It wasn't just 14 laps yesterday, and it certainly wasn't only five today. Much more than that.

Christian Harris11 said:Jell, does anyone have a clue what that pointy little gadget is doing near the Mercedes sidepods? And what’s with this nose design they're tinkering with? At least they seem to have a decent one for now... or is the deficit so massive that even they're considering ditching it (just like Ferrari did)?

Maybe the nose was designed to work in tandem with that "lawnmower"?
Could this just be the basic, inferior nose design used during the initial testing phases?

We'll find out very soon.
Based on the latest comments, it looks like they're finally unveiling that new nose tomorrow.

Jason Campbell70 said:That's actually two more references than you even mentioned in your own statements.

So, does that mean you don't have them?

Jason Campbell70 said:I would offer a rating of five out of ten, though I cannot help but wonder if we are focusing our attention on the wrong metrics entirely; in my humble opinion, the total number of laps completed under racing conditions carries far more weight and relevance than the mere flash of a single fastest lap time.

I have gone ahead and included the total lap count as well, though I suspect I might need to nudge that slider further to the right to get everything positioned quite correctly.

Kyle Edwards5 said:After reflecting on today's events, I find myself feeling perhaps a fraction more pessimistic than I did yesterday, and the weight of that concern stems primarily from the sheer pace shown by Force India, which appears remarkably quick; one cannot help but wonder if Mercedes might simply be even faster?🙄
I find myself questioning whether there truly is a substantial performance gap between the ultrasoft and supersoft compounds out here in Barcelona, though I suppose one could argue that the distinction is somewhat negligible. Is it not remarkably similar to what we witnessed last year when comparing the supersoft to the standard soft tires?
It appears that Ferrari may have managed to trim the deficit by a mere fraction, though one has to wonder if it was truly enough to change the landscape? As for McLaren-Honda, they seem to be stuck in a similarly stagnant position, and I cannot help but feel that Arai’s departure serves as a rather grim confirmation that nothing meaningful will change for them this year either. Is it possible we are simply witnessing a season of diminishing returns?
Does anyone else feel that the current engine regulations are effectively stifling any meaningful progression within the sport? It seems to me that these token systems are nothing more than a calculated public relations maneuver, designed primarily to pacify the fanbase rather than foster genuine competition. One has to wonder, truly, if there is any actual hope for anyone to bridge the gap and catch up to Mercedes, or if these tokens are simply being used as a distraction to mask the reality of the situation? 😁

Testing is really just testing, isn't it? It’s only once we finally arrive in Australia that we truly begin to grasp where everyone stands in the pecking order. I can't help but wonder if the teams struggling with those ultra-soft compounds will fare any better on a surface as abrasive as the one we saw in Barcelona; for some of these outfits, I suspect they won't even manage to complete a single decent lap without the tires falling apart.

jadeseal7 said:So, you don't have it?

🙂

graniteharbor502 said:I added the lap count too (need to slide the ticker to the left).

I missed it. 😁

graniteharbor502 said:On an abrasive track like this one in Barcelona, some teams won't even manage to pull off a single full lap on the ultrasofts. How is that even possible?

Even if they were driving on sandpaper... Mercedes is on mediums, Ferrari is on ultrasofts, and there's only a two-second gap between them.
And then there was Rosberg at Mercedes.

All Ferrari fans can do now is hope that the team is just playing their cards incredibly close to the vest.
And that was the last time they actually pulled it off... though I can't quite recall when.
And I have a very good memory.

Jason Campbell70 said:🙂

I missed it. 😁

Two seconds faster than Rosberg's Mercedes, using two sets of fast tires—that has to be an achievement. Well said, Jason Campbell70, you speak with wisdom. A brilliant observation. 🤣🤣🙏

Faster than Rosberg 🙂!!

mellowtiger83 said:Two seconds faster than Rosberg's Mercedes, using tires that were two mixes faster? That's quite the achievement. Nice one, Jason Campbell70, very wise words there. Brilliant observation. 🤣🤣🙏

From Rosberg 🙂!!

US < (approx 0.8) SS < (approx 1.0) S < (approx 1.0) < M
Obviously, there's still the question of how hard they were pushing and their fuel loads...
But the vibe is that Ferrari might have actually been chasing times, while Mercedes was just chasing reliability—basically, just trying to finish laps rather than hunting for speed. If that's true, the gap is probably even wider...

The only silver lining is that Rosberg is usually way better than Hamilton at this track (one of the few places he doesn't struggle), so at least we don't have to worry about them being neck-and-neck there...
Except, this isn't exactly one of those tracks where Vettel shines; if anything, it's one of his worst...
On that front, Jason Campbell70 completely missed the mark. He's totally off base. 🤣

Edit:
For the record, Vettel, Hamilton, and Rosberg each have only one win in Barcelona... Vettel and Hamilton have one pole, while Rosberg has two...
In 2015, Rosberg (Pole) beat Hamilton by 0.267s in qualifying and 17.551s in the race... I don't recall him ever beating him by that much.
In 2014, Hamilton (Pole) beat Rosberg by 0.168s in qualifying and a mere 0.636s in the race.
In 2013, Rosberg (Pole) beat Hamilton by 0.254s in qualifying and a full lap in the race...

So, based on everything we've seen, this is one of the rare tracks where Rosberg is noticeably better than Hamilton. ☕

Even if Rosberg gains some dominance in Barcelona, Hamilton will likely secure the title first.

Rosberg being a tenth or two faster on a qualifying lap doesn't mean a thing regarding the final season standings.
But if Rosberg or Mercedes shows a one to two-second advantage in race simulations? Then 2016 is just going to be a repeat of last year.

Unless, as I mentioned before, Ferrari decides to play their cards from the sleeve.
Though, honestly, that seems highly unlikely.

What on earth is going on with Ferrari?
From what I can see, they haven't even completed a single lap today. 🤷
Did something snap under the hood, or did Kimi Räikkönen just have one too many drinks and can't stay on the track? 😬

Initial testing sessions are notoriously unreliable—much like those weather forecasts that swear spring is just around the corner when we're still buried in snow. Still, I find it hard to believe that Ford will allow themselves to surrender such a massive lead without implementing significant technological upgrades during the break. I’d love to be proven wrong, but my gut tells me that at best, Ferrari might start closing the gap. If that actually happens, Sebastian Vettel finds himself in a surprisingly strong spot, primarily because of the inevitable internal cannibalization within Ford and Lewis Hamilton's questionable mental resilience. That said, it's far from a guarantee that Vettel holds the cards here; for him to truly control the outcome, he would need a Ferrari that is at least on par with the Ford.

McLaren is actually proving to be quite a pleasant surprise. Seeing them clocking a 1.26 on the medium tires... I must say, I am genuinely impressed. They look incredibly smooth out there on the circuit. Things are clearly trending in the right direction. It’s evident they haven't just blindly followed the Honda philosophy this time around. There might actually be something worthwhile happening here.

William Bennett53 said:Initial testing is notoriously unreliable—much like a weather forecaster predicting an early spring—but I highly doubt Ford will allow themselves to surrender a massive advantage mid-season without making significant technological shifts. I’d love to be proven wrong, but my assessment is that Ferrari might come closest to the top at best. If that actually happens, Sebastian Vettel sits in a favorable spot due to the inevitable internal cannibalization within Ford and Lewis Hamilton's questionable mental fortitude. That said, it's far from certain that Vettel controls his own destiny; he would need a Ferrari that is at least on par with the Ford to make that a reality.

Don't sweat it. Rosberg is nothing more than a perceived threat. Just look back at Bahrain in 2014; if Nico eventually finds the satisfaction he showed in those final races last year—specifically when Hamilton's car struggles a bit—that Monacan German will be thrilled. Everything else is just science fiction in Nika's eyes.

It's like expecting a desk jockey at a bank to outrun Sebastian Vettel. It rarely happens.

I really wish Ferrari would at least provide some kind of insight regarding why they aren't showing up.

They mentioned they were running some "fuel system checks."