Roger Wright94 said:It’s about time we killed off yet another tradition.
She thinks someone from the top three in qualifying is actually going to win Monaco. Give me a break.
If you actually look at the stats, the odds are basically zero. And once you see who’s sitting in those top three spots? Yeah, forget about it. It's looking pretty grim.
Nico Rosberg.
Winning would be a massive stretch even if Mercedes wasn't absolutely destroying their tires.
Nico Rosberg’s stats are actually pretty brutal—he’s dropping about 12 positions from his starting spot to the finish line, plus he’s already got two DNFs under his belt. He was solid last year and he's looking sharp right now, so I wouldn't rule out a podium finish, but let's be real: catching a win? Yeah, probably not happening.
2. - Lewis Hamilton
Yeah, right. As if!
He was incredible in Monaco, especially when things got messy with the weather. As far as track position goes, he only really lost ground back in 2012—dropped just two spots there—but looking at the big picture, he’s sitting at a net +11 positions in Monaco.
The only thing that actually makes sense to me is whatever's going on with the car at Virginia.
3. - Sebastian Vettel
He never actually lost his starting position in Monaco... though, okay, he did DNF once, so I guess you could technically count that as a loss too.
Compared to his other races there, he’s gained over 20 spots from his starting position on the grid. Honestly, that’s pretty impressive. Plus, he absolutely crushed it during that last rainy race.
Started 19th on the grid and fought all the way up to 5th—which is actually his worst finish in Monaco—and he even managed to lap Alonso in that Aston Martin. Honestly? It was freaking incredible watching that race again.😍
And he did all that on a track with constantly changing conditions, too. Considering yesterday's qualifying session was basically flawless, and it was his very first time racing in Monaco? Pretty impressive.
He’s got a shot if he can jump Hamilton right at the start. If he doesn't clear him in those first couple of laps, he's basically cooked.
4. - Webber's
His track record... he’s just always been a beast in Monaco.👍
Actually pretty interesting—he’s always hovering near the front when he actually finishes a race. Back in the day, he had a nasty habit of dropping out, but if he stays on track, he’s consistently gaining about 19 positions. Plus, he's already got two wins under his belt.
In the last five seasons plus seven, we’ve only lost one position, and even then, it was just by a single spot.
Honestly, if they could just nail the start for once, we might actually stand a chance.
If anyone besides those top three actually stands a chance, it’s Mark Webber—not that I expect any of you to be thrilled about that.😁
5. - Kimi Räikkönen
Well, that’s some pretty pathetic stats right there. Not exactly what anyone was expecting, I guess.😕
Looking at his entire career, he’s actually done alright... but over the last five seasons (well, technically just three races), he hasn't managed to hold onto a single position. He's sitting at a net loss of 9 positions. Not exactly winning much there.
Tires aside, I don't see him even standing a chance on the podium, let alone taking the win—even if he is one of my absolute favorites on the grid.
Since Red Bull and Mercedes are almost certainly going to pit twice, and given how he's been performing this season, it might actually be possible.
I’ve got a bad feeling about this. Anyone trying to gamble on a one-stop strategy is going to get absolutely wrecked. It could look pretty ugly once those final few laps roll around.
If anyone can pull off a one-stop strategy, it’s Kimi Räikkönen.👍
6. - Fernando Alonso
The Brits would probably call this a Dark Horse Race...
If things go sideways up front or if we get some total SC chaos because of the rain, he’s the one walking away with the Monaco win. Period.😳
He's been absolutely crushing it over the last five races—one massive win and only one where he actually lost ground, and honestly, that was just because the track conditions went sideways. If you look at the last four seasons, the guy's been on another level. 😳
I'm expecting him to jump ahead of Kimi Räikkönen right off the line, and if he manages to slice past Mark Webber immediately, he’s going to be a serious threat.
Now the real question: can Ferrari actually pull off a one-stop strategy in Monaco?🤷
My gut says no.😳 At least not at full race pace. If he somehow finds himself ahead of his teammate, he might hold them off—though we all saw what happened with Webber last year—but getting into that position is the hard part.
Bottom line: the start is everything here.