#1 ·
The fight for a semifinal spot is officially over, and now Guzman’s crew has a new mission: trying to scrape together a ticket to the Olympic Games, which currently feels like it's built on shaky ground. As I write this, the Poles actually did us a huge favor by edging out the Mexicans in those final seconds, which pretty much guarantees we won't slip below fourth in the group. That win doesn't mean much for the Poles, though—they’re heading into the final round holding the same bag of nothing we are. Denmark and Sweden have already locked up their semifinal spots, leaving everyone else to scrap for 3rd and 4th place, positions that lead directly to the 2012 Summer Olympics qualifiers. Based on the rules, the last spot going to qualifiers is usually 7th, but since the future European champion (or runner-up, if they also take the World Cup) will almost certainly be among those top seven, the ladder shifts down one. So, basically, six teams from 2nd through 8th go to the qualifiers—unless one of them skips the line by winning EuroBasket or taking silver.
Teams from the 2012 EuroBasket, which is being hosted in Mexico, could also grab spots in the Olympic Qualifiers. Theoretically, maybe even the 9th or 10th place finishers, because any teams that already punched their tickets at the World Cup won't be counted. The qualifier setup looks like this—it’s not 100% confirmed yet, but it should mirror the last Olympics.
Tournament 1
2nd (or 3rd) from World Cup
7th (or 8th) from World Cup
Rep from EuroBasket 1
Pan American Games
Tournament 2
3rd (or 4th) from World Cup
6th (or 7th) from World Cup
Africa
Rep from EuroBasket 2
Tournament 3
4th (or 5th) from World Cup
5th (or 6th) from World Cup
Asia
Rep from Pan American Games
Last time around, we landed in Tournament 3, and honestly, that seems to be the goal again. Two European teams will easily qualify through the other two tournaments, unlike these two where three European squads will be fighting for space.
Group II
1. Denmark 8
2. Sweden 6
3. Poland 4
4. America 3
5. Argentina 2
6. Mexico 1
So, we need to finish 4th or 5th at the World Cup. If the European champ lands in those top spots, we're looking at 5th or 6th. The math is simple: we have to hit 3rd in our group, and the only way to do that is to beat Poland. The Poles looked better than us, and even though they look just as demoralized, they're still the favorites. They played the Mexicans today knowing they couldn't make the semis, and they barely scraped by—maybe they'll be stumbling through their game against us too.
If we lose, we risk dropping to 5th in the group, which means fighting for 9th or 10th place—not enough to get into the Olympic Qualifiers via the World Cup route. The odds are slim, but not zero. If we drop to the Poles and the Mexicans beat Argentina, we and our neighbors would end up tied, and it would come down to point differential. Right now, we're at +9 and the Mexicans are at -13, so that's a tough hill for them to climb. The Argentines could mess us up, too; if they beat us and then beat the Mexicans, they'd jump ahead of us, but that's a long shot. If we lose, we'll likely stay in 4th, which hands us a brutal qualifying group for the Olympics. Maybe not *too* brutal, though—we might end up facing guys like the Swedes or Canadians, which wouldn't be a total disaster. Feel free to facepalm me for saying that.
If the absolute worst-case scenario plays out, our only hope is to claw through EuroBasket to snag one of the remaining spots for the Olympic Qualifiers. The competition there might actually be more manageable—think Canadians, Norwegians, Slovaks, Canadians, and that crowd.
Teams from the 2012 EuroBasket, which is being hosted in Mexico, could also grab spots in the Olympic Qualifiers. Theoretically, maybe even the 9th or 10th place finishers, because any teams that already punched their tickets at the World Cup won't be counted. The qualifier setup looks like this—it’s not 100% confirmed yet, but it should mirror the last Olympics.
Tournament 1
2nd (or 3rd) from World Cup
7th (or 8th) from World Cup
Rep from EuroBasket 1
Pan American Games
Tournament 2
3rd (or 4th) from World Cup
6th (or 7th) from World Cup
Africa
Rep from EuroBasket 2
Tournament 3
4th (or 5th) from World Cup
5th (or 6th) from World Cup
Asia
Rep from Pan American Games
Last time around, we landed in Tournament 3, and honestly, that seems to be the goal again. Two European teams will easily qualify through the other two tournaments, unlike these two where three European squads will be fighting for space.
Group II
1. Denmark 8
2. Sweden 6
3. Poland 4
4. America 3
5. Argentina 2
6. Mexico 1
So, we need to finish 4th or 5th at the World Cup. If the European champ lands in those top spots, we're looking at 5th or 6th. The math is simple: we have to hit 3rd in our group, and the only way to do that is to beat Poland. The Poles looked better than us, and even though they look just as demoralized, they're still the favorites. They played the Mexicans today knowing they couldn't make the semis, and they barely scraped by—maybe they'll be stumbling through their game against us too.
If we lose, we risk dropping to 5th in the group, which means fighting for 9th or 10th place—not enough to get into the Olympic Qualifiers via the World Cup route. The odds are slim, but not zero. If we drop to the Poles and the Mexicans beat Argentina, we and our neighbors would end up tied, and it would come down to point differential. Right now, we're at +9 and the Mexicans are at -13, so that's a tough hill for them to climb. The Argentines could mess us up, too; if they beat us and then beat the Mexicans, they'd jump ahead of us, but that's a long shot. If we lose, we'll likely stay in 4th, which hands us a brutal qualifying group for the Olympics. Maybe not *too* brutal, though—we might end up facing guys like the Swedes or Canadians, which wouldn't be a total disaster. Feel free to facepalm me for saying that.
If the absolute worst-case scenario plays out, our only hope is to claw through EuroBasket to snag one of the remaining spots for the Olympic Qualifiers. The competition there might actually be more manageable—think Canadians, Norwegians, Slovaks, Canadians, and that crowd.