#1 ·
A debate has broken out regarding an article from the Voice of Council (quite a surprise, honestly). Now Radoslav Dejanovic is launching a counter-attack against them:
I have a hunch that Radoslav is coming at the Voice of Council from the angle of: "you people are backwards and anti-modern medicine."
But where does the truth actually lie? We can find various statistics on Wikipedia or other sites, but the numbers vary wildly. Let’s try to run some math based on a sample of 100,000 women.
The probabilities:
False negatives—cancer that a mammogram misses: 25%-40%; let’s settle on 30% as a middle ground.
False positives—the scan flags something that isn't actually cancer: 75%.
Radiation: A 1 Rad exposure increases breast cancer risk by 1%—this is the critical data point.(http://www.naturalnews.com/010886_ca...mmography.html)
Radiation dose per mammogram: It used to be 5-10 Rads a long time ago; today it's about 1 Rad.
The Breakdown:
Out of 100,000 women, 350 will develop breast cancer.
20,000 women never get screened—70 of them will have cancer.
80,000 women undergo a mammogram every two years over a 20-year period—280 of them will develop cancer from natural causes.
Benefits of screening:
The first mammogram catches 60% of cases. The chance of missing an existing cancer over four years (two screenings) is 16%.
Let's assume that of those 280 women who eventually develop cancer, the mammogram catches early-stage cancer in 80% of them—that's 224 lives saved.
The Downsides:
Across 800,000 total mammograms (80,000 women x 10 scans), we would see 8,000 cases of cancer induced by the procedure itself. So, in order to catch cancer early for 224 women, are we essentially causing cancer in 8,000 others?
Fine, perhaps the statistics are flawed. But even if the radiation risk were ten times lower, we still end up with 800 cases of induced cancer just to achieve those 224 early diagnoses.
Even if the ratio were improved enough to cause only 80 or 8 cases of cancer, the trade-off remains unacceptable.
The crux of the matter is the actual risk posed by radiation, and I highly doubt we have reliable data on this. Why? Because modern medicine lacks long-term patient tracking. No one keeps meticulous statistics on the cumulative radiation dose an individual receives through diagnostic imaging, which means there is no way to isolate cancer cases caused specifically by medical radiation versus those that occur naturally.
If anything is truly "Satanic," it's X-rays. We should probably retire them in favor of MRIs, thermography, and similar tech. However, I don't agree with Radoslav's logic that "modern" automatically equals "better." Back in the day, when X-rays were first invented, they actually used them to check if children's clothes fit properly. That was cutting-edge technology back then...
http://www.museumofquackery.com/devices/shoexray.htm
I have a hunch that Radoslav is coming at the Voice of Council from the angle of: "you people are backwards and anti-modern medicine."
But where does the truth actually lie? We can find various statistics on Wikipedia or other sites, but the numbers vary wildly. Let’s try to run some math based on a sample of 100,000 women.
The probabilities:
False negatives—cancer that a mammogram misses: 25%-40%; let’s settle on 30% as a middle ground.
False positives—the scan flags something that isn't actually cancer: 75%.
Radiation: A 1 Rad exposure increases breast cancer risk by 1%—this is the critical data point.(http://www.naturalnews.com/010886_ca...mmography.html)
Radiation dose per mammogram: It used to be 5-10 Rads a long time ago; today it's about 1 Rad.
The Breakdown:
Out of 100,000 women, 350 will develop breast cancer.
20,000 women never get screened—70 of them will have cancer.
80,000 women undergo a mammogram every two years over a 20-year period—280 of them will develop cancer from natural causes.
Benefits of screening:
The first mammogram catches 60% of cases. The chance of missing an existing cancer over four years (two screenings) is 16%.
Let's assume that of those 280 women who eventually develop cancer, the mammogram catches early-stage cancer in 80% of them—that's 224 lives saved.
The Downsides:
Across 800,000 total mammograms (80,000 women x 10 scans), we would see 8,000 cases of cancer induced by the procedure itself. So, in order to catch cancer early for 224 women, are we essentially causing cancer in 8,000 others?
Fine, perhaps the statistics are flawed. But even if the radiation risk were ten times lower, we still end up with 800 cases of induced cancer just to achieve those 224 early diagnoses.
Even if the ratio were improved enough to cause only 80 or 8 cases of cancer, the trade-off remains unacceptable.
The crux of the matter is the actual risk posed by radiation, and I highly doubt we have reliable data on this. Why? Because modern medicine lacks long-term patient tracking. No one keeps meticulous statistics on the cumulative radiation dose an individual receives through diagnostic imaging, which means there is no way to isolate cancer cases caused specifically by medical radiation versus those that occur naturally.
If anything is truly "Satanic," it's X-rays. We should probably retire them in favor of MRIs, thermography, and similar tech. However, I don't agree with Radoslav's logic that "modern" automatically equals "better." Back in the day, when X-rays were first invented, they actually used them to check if children's clothes fit properly. That was cutting-edge technology back then...
http://www.museumofquackery.com/devices/shoexray.htm