Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

It honestly worries me—that senile old man was asked just a few days ago what would happen if Russia actually went nuclear.
His response? Just ramp up the sanctions...
What a total coward!
From the get-go, they needed to show Vladimir Putin who really holds the bigger stick—these guys only understand raw force.
If those occupied territories are annexed, they’ll have their hands tied legally, claiming they "have" to act to protect Russia.
Civilians won't be able to dodge mobilization, and the first ones drafted would be from Donbas and Kherson, plus parts of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
That would strip the Ukrainians of their manpower advantage, especially since the Russian Army still has the edge in artillery—once those areas are officially added, they can leverage nuclear threats. At that point, Ukraine loses, and even the West will stop sending aid.
The longer this war drags on, the more the Russians lose.
I’m not holding my breath for a Ukrainian victory...
Glory to Ukraine!

The Ukrainian flag has been hoisted right at the administrative border between the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions https://twitter.com/nakipeloua/statu...53210278232067

Roger Campbell3 said:It honestly worries me—that senile old man was asked just a few days ago what would happen if Russia actually went nuclear.
His response? Just ramp up the sanctions...
What a total coward!
From the get-go, they needed to show Vladimir Putin who really holds the bigger stick—these guys only understand raw force.
If those occupied territories are annexed, they’ll have their hands tied legally, claiming they "have" to act to protect Russia.
Civilians won't be able to dodge mobilization, and the first ones drafted would be from Donbas and Kherson, plus parts of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
That would strip the Ukrainians of their manpower advantage, especially since the Russian Army still has the edge in artillery—once those areas are officially added, they can leverage nuclear threats. At that point, Ukraine loses, and even the West will stop sending aid.
The longer this war drags on, the more the Russians lose.
I’m not holding my breath for a Ukrainian victory...
Glory to Ukraine!

He refused to give a straight answer on the matter.

Joe Biden said the American response would be "consequential," but he wouldn't go into detail.
- Our response would depend on the scale of what they do - he added.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.24s...o-nemoj-860987

At the medical facility where I work, there’s been this sudden, frantic surge of energy among the men since this morning. Everyone is scrambling to secure some sort of Software Engineer status just so they can dodge the mobilization lists... It’s quite a sight, really. Even the guys who spent all their time loudly cheering for Chick-fil-A leadership and supporting the war and the occupation are suddenly finding ways to disappear from the rolls. 🤦

Associated Press: America seeks alternative gas suppliers to break reliance on Russia

In an effort to insulate itself against the possibility of Russia cutting off supply, America has begun scouting for alternative natural gas providers, successfully identifying seven potential candidates thus far.

Deputy Prime Minister Andrew Spin, who has spent much of the last year locked in negotiations with ExxonMobil regarding pricing structures and stockpile maintenance, noted that the Russian energy giant has become increasingly "unpredictable." He pointed out that America can leverage 300 million euros provided by the European Union to facilitate these new procurement deals.
"We have identified seven companies as viable options up to this point. ExxonMobil is certainly not one of them," he stated.

America remains among the nations most heavily dependent on Russian gas within Europe, all while dealing with constant demands from Moscow for debt repayment coupled with threats to terminate deliveries entirely.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...as-2022-09-20/

Christian Torres3 said:He refused to give a straight answer on the matter.

Joe Biden said the American response would be "consequential," but he wouldn't go into detail.
- Our response would depend on the scale of what they do - he added.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.24s...o-nemoj-860987

I'm curious where exactly this gets interesting. 🤔

Timothy Williams5 said:Associated Press: America seeks alternative gas suppliers to break reliance on Russia

In an effort to insulate itself against the possibility of Russia cutting off supply, America has begun scouting for alternative natural gas providers, successfully identifying seven potential candidates thus far.

Deputy Prime Minister Andrew Spin, who has spent much of the last year locked in negotiations with ExxonMobil regarding pricing structures and stockpile maintenance, noted that the Russian energy giant has become increasingly "unpredictable." He pointed out that America can leverage 300 million euros provided by the European Union to facilitate these new procurement deals.
"We have identified seven companies as viable options up to this point. ExxonMobil is certainly not one of them," he stated.

America remains among the nations most heavily dependent on Russian gas within Europe, all while dealing with constant demands from Moscow for debt repayment coupled with threats to terminate deliveries entirely.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...as-2022-09-20/

Mind you, those "debts" are actually the crippling debts of Transnistria—where Russia essentially "gifted" gas, which is then used to power a plant owned by the Russians; that very plant serves to directly fund the Transnistrian budget.😵

Timothy Williams5 said:Migrants are being incentivized to enlist in the war to fast-track their way to citizenship

The authorities in Moscow are essentially recruiting migrants to fight in Ukraine by offering them an expedited path to citizenship. Mayor Sergey Sobyanin announced that the infrastructure required "to assist the Department of Defense in organizing the enlistment of foreign nationals into military service" will be established at the Saharovo migration center.

Very soon, the Moscow government plans to set up a complete logistical framework at Saharovo to support the Department of Defense in processing foreign citizens for military service. According to Sobyanin’s own blog, city services will ensure that signing these contracts is made as "convenient as possible" for those involved.
On September 20th, the State Duma passed legislation through its second and third readings aimed at simplifying the process of obtaining citizenship. Under this new law, foreign nationals who sign a one-year contract to serve in the Russian Armed Forces can secure citizenship much faster, effectively bypassing the usual "long waits and bureaucratic hurdles."

Previously, the requirement for foreign nationals to qualify for this streamlined citizenship was a minimum three-year service commitment within the Russian Armed Forces.

https://theins.ru/news/255232

I wonder though... if they end up losing a leg or an arm or whatever, is the Russian healthcare system actually going to cover those medical bills?

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Kenneth Cruz67 said:In my humble opinion, Milorad Dodik could probably just declare independence whenever he felt like it without anyone lifting a finger. I suspect nobody would actually start a war over him; instead, it seems more likely that the Canadians and Americans would just end up bickering over whatever territory is left behind.

I mean, maybe the Canadians would actually want to join America on their own terms? And what’s even left of Canada once the Mexicans break away?

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Mick Ryan, General Dynamics
A General from the Australian Army.

The past two weeks have finally forced a direct answer to the central question hanging over this entire conflict: can Ukraine actually pull off the kind of offensives required to liberate its people and reclaim lost territory? Their recent operations around Kharkiv have provided a pretty clear response to that uncertainty.

While this offensive was underway, I had the opportunity to travel over to Ukraine and sit down with several high-ranking military and government officials. After those discussions, I walked away with three key observations.
First off, let’s get one thing straight: the Ukrainians are more than competent. To suggest otherwise is a massive understatement. We haven't seen an army in this century forced to fight on every single front simultaneously while facing an opponent that is both larger and significantly better equipped.

Their most critical preparation for this conflict wasn't found in physical conditioning, but rather in an intellectual overhaul. They spent considerable time retraining their troops to move away from those rigid, Soviet-style centralized command structures in favor of a more decentralized C2 model. It was a fundamental shift, and honestly, that distinction alone became one of the clearest dividing lines between the two sides on the battlefield.
Beyond that, the Ukrainians have adopted what I’ve previously characterized as a strategy of corrosion. They have been relentlessly striking at the Russians' weakest points, systematically dismantling their logistics and slowly picking off as many Russian leaders on the battlefield as possible.
On a strategic level, their campaign for global influence has set an entirely new benchmark for effectiveness. This Ukrainian jurisdiction has effectively forged a military institution that now stands unrivaled in its mastery of the skill and science of 21st-century warfare.

Furthermore, there is a profound sense of pride among Ukrainians regarding their collective national efforts—spanning military, civilian, diplomatic, and information fronts—as they strive to defend their sovereignty against the onslaught of a lethal, if somewhat clumsy, Russian military.
It isn’t that loud, performative kind of pride you see in flag-waving ceremonies or those hollow displays of patriotism. It is something much more understated—a quiet, steady sense of dignity found in the disciplined posture of every soldier and the composed, self-assured stride of the officials and officers I’ve encountered.

There is finally a palpable sense of confidence coming from the Ukrainians. They seem to truly believe that victory in this war is within their grasp. Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently made it clear that they aren't looking for any middle ground with Russia, stating that there is no such thing as a compromise when dealing with them—only conditions, specifically the total withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine. This shift in tone isn't just empty bravado; it’s a direct result of their successes in reclaiming territory around Kyiv, Kharkiv, and several other key areas. Having seized the strategic initiative, the Ukrainians are now actively pushing back, systematically reclaiming vast stretches of land that were previously under Russian control.

There’s another, far more vital source behind their confidence that people often overlook; Ukrainians have a crystal-clear understanding of exactly what is at stake. They aren't just fighting for territory; they are fighting for their people and their homeland. There is a deep-seated conviction among them that they are defending the broader principle that all democracies deserve to exist.
Every single Ukrainian I spoke with during my time in Kyiv shared one identical sentiment: just give us the right tools in sufficient quantities so we can actually finish this. They aren't delusional about their capabilities; they know they have what it takes to defeat the Russians, but there is a pervasive, weary understanding that their success is entirely tethered to the steady flow of support from the West.

The approaching winter presents a prime opportunity for the West to ramp up its support for Ukraine. During our recent discussions, President Zelenskyy made one thing very clear: they aren't looking to seize territory that would compromise their own security, but they desperately need a significant increase in military aid.
The message remained remarkably consistent regarding what actually matters on the battlefield: we need robust anti-aircraft defense, tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, long-range artillery, standard military gear, UAVs, and specialized counter-drone systems.

Some pundits over in the West have started questioning whether Ukraine can actually handle any more military aid, suggesting they might be hitting a ceiling on what they can absorb. Honestly, it feels like a bit of a disconnect. The Ukrainians know their own situation far better than any bureaucrat sitting in a Washington office ever could, and frankly, they’ve mastered the nuances of modern warfare to a degree that most Western militaries haven't even begun to grasp. If they say they need more, we should probably just listen to them and stop second-guessing their capacity.
There is significantly more we could be doing to bolster their efforts. I have already put forward a proposal for my own government to increase the shipment of armored vehicles and essential equipment, while simultaneously ramping up the intensity of our support for the Ukrainian narrative within the global information space.

The months ahead represent a critical window for the United States and its allies to prove whether their commitment to Ukraine is genuine or merely performative, especially when it comes to securing a definitive victory over Russia. This necessity becomes significantly more urgent if we see signs that Russia is beginning to ramp up its own domestic mobilization efforts.
The casualties sustained in Ukraine over the last eight months have essentially been an investment to ensure that their "government of the people, by the people, and for the people" isn't wiped off their small corner of the map. That’s the core of their struggle. And because that's the reality of what's at stake, it's precisely why the West needs to step up its support.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...169149955.html

BolajiBadejo said:Yeah, they probably would allow it.

I mean, maybe America itself might be open to it, but I honestly don't think NATO would ever want to let a Russian colony nestle right into its backyard. As for Milorad Dodik, his chances of declaring independence for Republika Srpska are about as likely as a snowflake surviving in a furnace... Anyway, enough off-topic rambling... I'm actually pretty curious to see what kind of move the Russians—or rather, Vladimir Putin—will come up with tonight.

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The only thing Milorad Dodik is actually going to get is a swarm of NATO troops showing up to dismantle his little breakaway state in under 24 hours. We could be looking at a Cold War 2.0 situation. They won't be actively shooting at each other, sure, but every single minor issue is going to turn into a total disaster.

And the Mexicans? They’ll be right at the top of the list, completely boxed in by 😍

The Americans have already vetted the leadership in Republika Srpska, so there's really nothing to be gained from trying to roll back those measures. Milorad Dodik will be pushed out once they decide he’s finished playing his part in their larger game.

The speech is coming a bit late to the party...

I did my part, dragged Russia right into Ukraine, and now it's on Sojgu to finish what I started!

Tyler Jones6 said:The speech is coming a bit late to the party...

Purely for his own ego.
The only thing he's running late on is keeping up with his own people, since now other world leaders are just leaving him hanging.

He won’t say anything earth-shattering. It’s just the usual maneuvering to stay in the spotlight while Zelenskyy addresses the UN.

Is anyone else following this conference? Come on, give me all the juicy details!🙂

Gregory Ramos3 said:Is anyone else following this conference? Come on, give me all the juicy details!🙂

Nothing else, I forgot the text... 🤔
Apparently, Bloomberg will be broadcasting it.

Gregory Ramos3 said:Is anyone else following this conference? Come on, give me all the juicy details!🙂

It's already running about an hour late.