Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Bradley White73 said:They aren't actually calling for a nuclear strike—they're just trying to scare people. Anyone pushing that narrative is basically doing Putin's dirty work. Just block them and move on.

Exactly.

Bradley White73 said:They aren't actually looking for a nuclear strike; they're just trying to spread panic. Anyone pushing that narrative is basically doing Putin's dirty work. Best to just hit ignore on people like that.

Don't sweat it. The USA keeps things in check, not some random internet forum users.

Bradley White73 said:They aren't actually calling for a nuclear strike; they're just trying to manufacture panic. Anyone playing that game is essentially doing Putin's dirty work for him. The best move? Just hit ignore on people like that.

Honestly, anyone who isn't concerned about the increasing possibility of nuclear war is being completely delusional.

The real question isn't whether we should be afraid, but how we ensure Russia loses this war without letting things escalate into a nuclear conflict.

So, they just passed that law where you can face up to ten years for handing over gear... I’m betting we’re about to see some skirmishes followed by retreats because everyone will claim the enemy is just too "superior" to hold the line, and honestly, Putko might just rub it in their faces, which seems to be exactly what's happening near Liman right now since the Russians pulled out and left only the outskirts behind...

Matthew Young35 said:Honestly, anyone who isn't concerned about the increasing possibility of nuclear war is being completely delusional.

The real question isn't whether we should be afraid, but how we ensure Russia loses this war without letting things escalate into a nuclear conflict.

Honestly, I feel like anyone who falls for every single bluff and psychological tactic thrown their way is making a double mistake. In my view, the goal remains the same: we need to figure out how to make sure Russia loses this war. Period.

Bradley White73 said:Honestly, I feel like anyone who falls for every single bluff and psychological tactic thrown their way is making a double mistake. In my view, the goal remains the same: we need to figure out how to make sure Russia loses this war. Period.

It’s a difficult position to be in when your fear of facing the world's second-largest military boils down to nothing more than the dread of a nuclear catastrophe.

Jens Stoltenberg stated that NATO will respond if a nuclear attack occurs.

A nuclear strike would mean the end of Russia. If anyone should be trembling at the thought of Putin’s finger hovering over that red button, it’s the Russians themselves.

But then again, I suppose some people always prefer the devil they know.

Carol Johnson21 said:It’s a difficult position to be in when your fear of facing the world's second-largest military boils down to nothing more than the dread of a nuclear catastrophe.

Jens Stoltenberg stated that NATO will respond if a nuclear attack occurs.

A nuclear strike would mean the end of Russia. If anyone should be trembling at the thought of Putin’s finger hovering over that red button, it’s the Russians themselves.

But then again, I suppose some people always prefer the devil they know.

Actually, I think they’re the ones who are the most scared. Putin and his whole inner circle, I guess. He probably would have pulled the trigger a long time ago if he hadn't lost his nerve entirely. 😁

Look, if Putin has already "made all his decisions," then he should have just cut his losses and dropped the hammer a long time ago. I mean, think about it: you go in, you fight a fair fight, you expose every single weakness of the Russian military, and then, right when everything is falling apart and looking desperate, you drop a nuke. That’s the kind of scenario that would essentially wipe Russia off the map forever on every possible level. It honestly blows my mind that I'm even allowed to let him drag the entire country down this far just because he's trying to salvage what was clearly a massive, catastrophic miscalculation in judgment.

The Russians have basically bet the whole house on this. Ever since the invasion of Ukraine, they've poured everything into the mix—Russian capital, business interests, political influence, bribes, spies, you name it. Now, nothing is going to fly anymore, not even tourism. All those journalists and politicians who were essentially bought and paid for? They’re finished; they're going to face massive purges and get canceled globally. For the longest time, the Russians had everything served to them on a silver platter when it came to buying influence, but that era is over. Unfortunately, they got so arrogant that they ended up dragging the very identity of being Russian through the mud, much like how the world viewed the Nazis back in the day.

This latest move to mobilize ethnic minorities is going to cost them dearly, not just abroad, but right at home. This is heading straight toward becoming a domestic genocide for many of them. Maybe he thinks he's solving the problem of potential uprisings by using these groups, but if you ask me, he's just guaranteeing that those rebellions will happen.

Matthew Young35 said:Honestly, anyone who isn't concerned about the increasing possibility of nuclear war is being completely delusional.

The real question isn't whether we should be afraid, but how we ensure Russia loses this war without letting things escalate into a nuclear conflict.

Do you honestly think fear acts as a preventative measure? As if being afraid will stop it from happening. Hardly.

The Russians need to face certain truths and acknowledge the reality they’re up against. Only then can they actually move forward.

According to the Russian media's playbook:

28th: The Duma submits documents to formally annex Zaporizhzhia, the DPR, the LPR, and Kherson into the Russian Federation.
29th: The Duma debates the request.
30th: A session is scheduled where Putin will make an official statement.

I haven't wanted to chime in until now, but I'm curious about the general consensus here.

To me, this smells like a backroom deal. The West has been hinting repeatedly that Putin needs a way out. I guess some of you don't realize that the West doesn't mess around with coups or assassinations. Say they kill Putin—what then? Is there any guarantee Dmitry Medvedev won't just order Armageddon?

The Russians have shown themselves to be incompetent amateurs in this war. They've been totally humiliated. I’m not talking about morality or international law here—let's be real, the big powers don't give a damn about those anyway. Russian power was built on the concept of brute force, and now we see that force is seriously shaken.

Russia has screwed itself over long-term. Geopolitically speaking, they've turned Ukraine into a permanent, mortal enemy. They basically unified them as a nation.

My take is that nobody really wins in the end. Russia will likely annex those four regions, making it five including Crimea. They'll grab about a fifth of Ukraine, maybe 120,000 square kilometers. That's a massive chunk. To make matters worse for Ukraine, that's the economic heart of the country. It means losing access to the Sea of Azov for good.

NATO can say whatever it wants, but they won't act directly. Officially, they won't recognize the annexation, but everyone will know that once Russia takes it, it stays theirs. However, Russia has proven itself incapable. They might try to push further, but I doubt they'll take Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odesa, or Mykolaiv... mostly because the population in the areas they actually annex is largely pro-Russian. I don't see a way for Ukraine to ever get that territory back.

Honestly, if it ends there, it would be a Pyrrhic victory for Russia. They'd gain something, but effectively gain nothing. They wouldn't achieve their actual goals—they won't reach Transnistria, they won't get rid of the current leadership, and they won't erase Ukraine from the map. Putin would spin it as a win to justify the war, but he'd be left with a hostile neighbor right on his border.

Total victory scenarios are unrealistic. Whether it's a Ukrainian victory where everything is returned, or a Russian one where Ukraine is wiped out.

If I play Nostradamus:
After September 28th, when Putin gives his speech to the Duma and formally absorbs the four regions into the USA [Note: context implies the Russian Federation], Ukraine will attempt one more major offensive toward Kherson. It'll fail. The Russians will try to retake Kharkiv and head toward Odesa, where they'll suffer a disaster. Internal pressure on both sides will start ramping up. The front lines will stabilize. Russia will face increasing pressure from China and India to wrap it up. In the EU, winter will cause some governments to fall. Support for Ukraine will dwindle as inflation crushes living standards.

Sometime around March 2023, we'll see a ceasefire and a truce. At the peace talks, Ukraine will demand all its territory back, which they won't get. Russia will demand demilitarization, which they won't get either. Some sort of agreement will be signed that looks like a mix of the Korean scenario and Versailles. Both sides will be generally dissatisfied.

Ukraine will commit to not joining NATO, but they'll become the most militarized nation in the world in the coming years. Putin will declare victory, even though various factions will tear him apart for starting such a war for such tiny, almost non-existent gains. Ukraine, meanwhile, will remain a permanently frustrated state, missing a huge portion of its land.

In my opinion, it'll be a Pyrrhic victory for Russia. A very hollow one, and highly questionable in the long run. I wouldn't be surprised if Putin later forces Lukashenko to formally join Russia.

Terry Green3 said:According to the Russian media's playbook:

28th: The Duma submits documents to formally annex Zaporizhzhia, the DPR, the LPR, and Kherson into the Russian Federation.
29th: The Duma debates the request.
30th: A session is scheduled where Putin will make an official statement.

But honestly, nothing is actually going to happen. Ukrainians will just keep fighting to liberate the Lugansk and Donetsk regions.

There is no such thing as a quiet backroom deal.
This entire rigged referendum is nothing more than a desperate attempt to save face.
Ultimately, Ukrainians will reclaim every inch of their occupied territory.

darkwolf20 said:There is no such thing as a quiet backroom deal.
This entire rigged referendum is nothing more than a desperate attempt to save face.
Ultimately, Ukrainians will reclaim every inch of their occupied territory.

It won't happen without a nuclear war, I guess.

Lisa Patel4 said:It won't happen without a nuclear war, I guess.

So, why did they stop testing nukes back in the last century?

Honestly, I’m just as terrified as anyone else that Putin will actually pull this off and keep whatever territories he claims to have "annexed."

He’ll probably just flood those areas with a million armed people over the next year, basically turning them into a massive, permanent presence on the ground.

Once they officially annex it—by their own rules, anyway—they’re going to start screaming for "de-escalation." They'll try to play the peacemaker, and half the world will probably jump at it just because they're sick of hearing about the war.

In the end, Ukraine could get totally played and lose everything Russia is trying to grab right now.

I mean, seriously, I don't see any realistic way for those lands to actually be returned to the Ukrainians...

Maybe in some other war ten or twenty years down the line that the Ukrainians have to start themselves.

We'll know what's really happening in the next few weeks.

Putin is definitely playing the card where he paints himself as the big winner by declaring these spots part of Russia and then calling a halt to the fighting.

At the end of the day, if he pulls this off like he did with Crimea, the Russians are going to think he's some kind of god.

placidtiger142 said:Honestly, I’m just as terrified as anyone else that Putin will actually pull this off and keep whatever territories he claims to have "annexed."

He’ll probably just flood those areas with a million armed people over the next year, basically turning them into a massive, permanent presence on the ground.

Once they officially annex it—by their own rules, anyway—they’re going to start screaming for "de-escalation." They'll try to play the peacemaker, and half the world will probably jump at it just because they're sick of hearing about the war.

In the end, Ukraine could get totally played and lose everything Russia is trying to grab right now.

I mean, seriously, I don't see any realistic way for those lands to actually be returned to the Ukrainians...

Maybe in some other war ten or twenty years down the line that the Ukrainians have to start themselves.

We'll know what's really happening in the next few weeks.

Putin is definitely playing the card where he paints himself as the big winner by declaring these spots part of Russia and then calling a halt to the fighting.

At the end of the day, if he pulls this off like he did with Crimea, the Russians are going to think he's some kind of god.

The Ukrainians are getting this back pretty soon.

casualmoose82 said:So, why did they stop testing nukes back in the last century?

Irrelevant. I guess Russia will just view this as an attack on their own soil. In a few days, they won't care if we're talking about Vladivostok, Moscow, or Zaporizhzhia.

And honestly, I wouldn't underestimate that endless list of Anglo-American allies who would throw us under the bus the second they got a better deal.

Lisa Patel4 said:It won't happen without a nuclear war, I guess.

They will

Lisa Patel4 said:Irrelevant. I guess Russia will just view this as an attack on their own soil. In a few days, they won't care if we're talking about Vladivostok, Moscow, or Zaporizhzhia.

And honestly, I wouldn't underestimate that endless list of Anglo-American allies who would throw us under the bus the second they got a better deal.

It matters, though. Because honestly, nobody on this planet can actually do anything with that kind of weaponry. It’s just not within human capability, I guess.