Sanctions on Russia

By the way, there’s that talk resurfacing about a European Union gas bloc—basically, the idea of acting as a single buyer to grab some serious leverage on the global gas markets.
They managed to pull it off with vaccines, sure, but this is a completely different beast, and we've seen this particular plan fall flat before.
The math just doesn't add up. It's unclear how much they could actually buy together since so many European Union nations are already locked into long-term contracts, and bulk buying power only works if you're actually buying in bulk.
Then there’s the whole issue of potentially violating antitrust laws. Plus, the levels of gas dependency vary wildly across Europe, and not every member state has the storage capacity or easy access to terminals to make this work.
Still, this crisis is forcing the European Union to scramble for solutions. That era of being blissfully complacent was definitely over.

Christian Torres3 said:Sure, but they're doing it specifically to keep the Ruble from skyrocketing.

It's kind of the same deal as selling stuff directly for Euros, really.🤷

Dana Robinson4 said:back when they used to buy.....

Take Saudi Arabia, for instance; they managed to stay incredibly secure by swiftly and easily freezing those billions belonging to Russia... which suddenly made the Yuan look like a much more enticing alternative, wouldn't you agree?

Plus, we can't ignore the reality that if everything stays status quo, you're still effectively losing 8% of your purchasing power every single year to inflation, right?

Anyway, that's a whole other rabbit hole—gold, crypto, real estate, land, all that stuff..

Russia is trying to drum up demand for the Ruble, while using Euros and Dollars for trade with so-called "friendly nations."
Putin's main goal is dodging sanctions—starting with China and India, then moving on to anyone else willing to trade and get what they need from him.
That's why we're seeing this massive spike in diplomatic maneuvering toward those specific countries right now.
Of course, their end game is just profiting off this war and crisis—basically grabbing energy at a discount.
They probably wouldn't mind seeing a weakened Russia in the long run, too.

Bryan Booth82 said:If things actually go that far, we’re talking about what happens in Russia... at that point, I might as well use the Ruble as wrapping paper.
Best regards,

From Russian propaganda
Russian manufacturers are basically just repackaging imported wine now.
The massive headache right now is the corks, since they import them from Portugal and Spain. For instance, a winery based out of New York City was forced to scramble for domestic suppliers on the local market just to build up a two-month reserve.
Glass bottle costs have jumped about 20%. Sure, local plants make them, but they rely on imported components, like specific dyes for the glass. Back in March, production costs for glass in rubles spiked by 12-15%, and we're going to see that hit retail prices in the second quarter.
Even labels—front and back—are averaging a 65% price hike. Wineries are looking to swap them out for domestic alternatives, much like they're doing with the corks—switching from oak cork to aluminum or plastic.
https://www.rbc.ru/business/01/04/20...?from=newsfeed

They’ve got 2 million tons of sugar, but it's all sitting in those massive 2-ton bulk bags.
The packaging plants are stalled. Even though the paper itself is technically local, the factories are at a standstill because they can't get the chemicals needed to make the paper, let alone the glue or the ink for the labels. They're trying to source some barrels soon, but eventually, stores will just have to buy and sell sugar in bulk. There's plenty of paper in China, but the railroad lines are booked solid; they can't spare a single extra freight car. Plus, there's a chronic shortage of truck drivers, which is pretty classic.

Just adding to this.
It's likely the military has messed up the freight schedules by prioritizing troop movements; they always get the right of way, leaving everything else sidelined. As for the locomotives, I don't quite grasp why there's such a crisis with the engines and maintenance parts.

And here's the craziest part. The regulatory agencies over there are about to roll back automotive standards. Basically, they're going to start cranking out Ladas and VAZs without any European electronics.
We're talking no ABS, no Airbag, no Euro-spec common rail diesel engines, no traction control, no AC, etc.

Essentially, these cars will be stuck in the 1980s in terms of engines, tires, and bodywork. From an electronics standpoint, you'll just get 12v lights and turn signals. 😁😁🙏

wearytrucker22 said:From Russian propaganda
Russian manufacturers are basically just repackaging imported wine now.
The massive headache right now is the corks, since they import them from Portugal and Spain. For instance, a winery based out of New York City was forced to scramble for domestic suppliers on the local market just to build up a two-month reserve.
Glass bottle costs have jumped about 20%. Sure, local plants make them, but they rely on imported components, like specific dyes for the glass. Back in March, production costs for glass in rubles spiked by 12-15%, and we're going to see that hit retail prices in the second quarter.
Even labels—front and back—are averaging a 65% price hike. Wineries are looking to swap them out for domestic alternatives, much like they're doing with the corks—switching from oak cork to aluminum or plastic.
https://www.rbc.ru/business/01/04/20...?from=newsfeed

They’ve got 2 million tons of sugar, but it's all sitting in those massive 2-ton bulk bags.
The packaging plants are stalled. Even though the paper itself is technically local, the factories are at a standstill because they can't get the chemicals needed to make the paper, let alone the glue or the ink for the labels. They're trying to source some barrels soon, but eventually, stores will just have to buy and sell sugar in bulk. There's plenty of paper in China, but the railroad lines are booked solid; they can't spare a single extra freight car. Plus, there's a chronic shortage of truck drivers, which is pretty classic.

Just adding to this.
It's likely the military has messed up the freight schedules by prioritizing troop movements; they always get the right of way, leaving everything else sidelined. As for the locomotives, I don't quite grasp why there's such a crisis with the engines and maintenance parts.

And here's the craziest part. The regulatory agencies over there are about to roll back automotive standards. Basically, they're going to start cranking out Ladas and VAZs without any European electronics.
We're talking no ABS, no Airbag, no Euro-spec common rail diesel engines, no traction control, no AC, etc.

Essentially, these cars will be stuck in the 1980s in terms of engines, tires, and bodywork. From an electronics standpoint, you'll just get 12v lights and turn signals. 😁😁🙏

War is an incredibly expensive hobby, especially when half the money you planned to spend suddenly gets frozen tight.
Best regards,

wearytrucker22 said:From Russian propaganda
Russian manufacturers are basically just repackaging imported wine now.
The massive headache right now is the corks, since they import them from Portugal and Spain. For instance, a winery based out of New York City was forced to scramble for domestic suppliers on the local market just to build up a two-month reserve.
Glass bottle costs have jumped about 20%. Sure, local plants make them, but they rely on imported components, like specific dyes for the glass. Back in March, production costs for glass in rubles spiked by 12-15%, and we're going to see that hit retail prices in the second quarter.
Even labels—front and back—are averaging a 65% price hike. Wineries are looking to swap them out for domestic alternatives, much like they're doing with the corks—switching from oak cork to aluminum or plastic.
https://www.rbc.ru/business/01/04/20...?from=newsfeed

They’ve got 2 million tons of sugar, but it's all sitting in those massive 2-ton bulk bags.
The packaging plants are stalled. Even though the paper itself is technically local, the factories are at a standstill because they can't get the chemicals needed to make the paper, let alone the glue or the ink for the labels. They're trying to source some barrels soon, but eventually, stores will just have to buy and sell sugar in bulk. There's plenty of paper in China, but the railroad lines are booked solid; they can't spare a single extra freight car. Plus, there's a chronic shortage of truck drivers, which is pretty classic.

Just adding to this.
It's likely the military has messed up the freight schedules by prioritizing troop movements; they always get the right of way, leaving everything else sidelined. As for the locomotives, I don't quite grasp why there's such a crisis with the engines and maintenance parts.

And here's the craziest part. The regulatory agencies over there are about to roll back automotive standards. Basically, they're going to start cranking out Ladas and VAZs without any European electronics.
We're talking no ABS, no Airbag, no Euro-spec common rail diesel engines, no traction control, no AC, etc.

Essentially, these cars will be stuck in the 1980s in terms of engines, tires, and bodywork. From an electronics standpoint, you'll just get 12v lights and turn signals. 😁😁🙏

So, what's your point?

Even without sanctions, Porsche is shutting down factories anyway.

Intermediary banks are required to set up dedicated accounts to remit the contractually agreed amounts, typically in USD or Euros. These funds are then auctioned via the New York Stock Exchange, with the resulting revenue being converted and credited to the gas supplier's account. Russia has designated any nation that imposed sanctions against them—including the USA, EU members, the United Kingdom, and Canada—as "unfriendly" countries.

So, what exactly changes because of this? 🤷

Christian Torres3 said:So what, they voted for like, 12 or 13 billion dollars in aid for Ukraine? Most of the weapons going there aren't even donations—the USA is footing the bill!

Congress actually approved $800 million for weaponry, plus another $200 million for other stuff, and there's still an extra $500 million being debated. All told, we're talking way less than that 12 or 13 billion figure.
I haven't seen anyone claim that the US pays for weapons that aren't direct donations. Got a link for that?

Maria Moore said:Congress actually approved $800 million for weaponry, plus another $200 million for other stuff, and there's still an extra $500 million being debated. All told, we're talking way less than that 12 or 13 billion figure.
I haven't seen anyone claim that the US pays for weapons that aren't direct donations. Got a link for that?

Biden signs government funding Bill that includes $ 13.6 billion in Ukraine aid

President Joe Biden signed a funding bill to keep the government running through September and send $13.6 billion in aid to Ukraine.
The money for Ukraine will go both to helping refugees fleeing Russia ’ and to defensive equipment and training for the country’s military.

Maria Moore said:I agree there’s probably a catch somewhere. But if the Ruble has actually stabilized this much, it might not be the massive scam people think it is.
To me, this whole setup looks like a way to make sure everyone gets a little slice of the pie. Basically, buyers from "unfriendly nations" pay in Euros, while the Russians get their hands on the cash in Rubles. It keeps both sides happy on paper.
That’s why I find the European Union's refusal to accept this model so baffling. If they cut off the gas, they aren't just looking at massive inflation—they're staring down a recession. We're talking full-blown stagflation.

Germany is going to take the biggest hit here. But let's not forget that Germany is the engine driving the entire European Union since they're the top importers and exporters. If the German economy tanks, the whole European Union goes down with it.

Honestly, I get the feeling the European Union is currently stuck in that "I don't care if my house burns down as long as the neighbor's does too" mindset. And they're doing it all under pressure from the USA, who will obviously be just fine no matter what happens to everyone else's "house."

👍
This really highlights the root cause. This isn't a problem that started last month; it started twenty years ago. The scheme hasn't changed much, except now they say "The Russians can't say that, only we can."

Dana Robinson4 said:So, what's your point?

Even without sanctions, Porsche is shutting down factories anyway.

This hasn't even truly begun. If Russia shuts off the gas, a huge chunk of industry stands still. Honestly, I'm not sure what would even be left standing, given how interconnected everything is. They say 95% of chemical production depends directly on energy.
Agriculture—the European Union is a top global producer, but they consume 90% of what they grow, leaving little surplus. What happens without fertilizers—which the Americans declared a strategic interest and pulled out of sanctions—combined with skyrocketing fuel prices?

Russia has food and energy; Germans have Ford and Chevrolet. Who is actually more practical in a crisis, and who is used to hardship?

Christian Torres3 said:
Biden signs government funding Bill that includes $ 13.6 billion in Ukraine aid

President Joe Biden signed a funding bill to keep the government running through September and send $13.6 billion in aid to Ukraine.
The money for Ukraine will go both to helping refugees fleeing Russia ’ and to defensive equipment and training for the country’s military.

The devil is in the details, as always. CNN goes into more detail here:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/15/p...bus/index.html

"The new funding will provide additional humanitarian, security and economic assistance for Ukraine and allies in The region.
Roughly half of The aid Package will be used to deploy troops to The region and send defense equipment to Ukraine, according to a summary of the bill provided by the House Appropriations Committee.
The US Has deployed thousands of troops throughout Europe , both before and during Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But putting troops on the ground in Ukraine, which is not a member of NATO, is a line that the US and its western allies have not been willing to Cross.
Much of The other half of The aid will providjeti humanitarian support for refugees fleeing Ukraine and People displaced within The country , including emergency food assistance , as well as Help to respond to The economic needs in Ukraine and neighboring countries, such as cybersecurity and energy issues."

So, that $13.6 billion USD total package covers everything—support for all NATO members (like extra troop deployments in Eastern Europe), plus humanitarian aid for refugees. Only about $800 million USD of that is actually direct weapons aid for Ukraine.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/15/p...ine/index.html

But honestly, that isn't even the big question. What I'm actually wondering about is where the US promised to fund everyone else's donations. I highly doubt the USA is going to write checks to Norway, Sweden, Germany, United Kingdom, and the rest to cover the cost of the weapons they've sent over to Ukraine.

steelfox98 said:👍
This really highlights the root cause. This isn't a problem that started last month; it started twenty years ago. The scheme hasn't changed much, except now they say "The Russians can't say that, only we can."

This hasn't even truly begun. If Russia shuts off the gas, a huge chunk of industry stands still. Honestly, I'm not sure what would even be left standing, given how interconnected everything is. They say 95% of chemical production depends directly on energy.
Agriculture—the European Union is a top global producer, but they consume 90% of what they grow, leaving little surplus. What happens without fertilizers—which the Americans declared a strategic interest and pulled out of sanctions—combined with skyrocketing fuel prices?

Russia has food and energy; Germans have Ford and Chevrolet. Who is actually more practical in a crisis, and who is used to hardship?

The Germans don't need to worry about food; they've got plenty.https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryPr...16-24_FoodProd

The Germans are working on a plan to disconnect from the gas grid. They originally considered shutting down the chemical industry too, but they aren't willing to do that yet. First, they'll cut off shopping malls, service sectors, and electricity—that accounts for about 60% of Russian gas imports.

I can't help but wonder if this whole demand to pay for gas in rubles is actually just Putin's way of taking a swing at those local Oligarchs.
I mean, think about it—no major bank outside of Russia is going to touch those rubles to swap them for Dollars or euros.
It’s basically the opposite in Germany; everything there is going to grind to a halt if they don't get enough gas or oil soon. For instance, those LNG terminals that are supposed to make up for the lost capacity?
They aren't even scheduled to be ready until 2024.

The whole situation feels like some twisted endurance test to see who runs out of air first. Honestly, both Europe and Russia are probably going to lose this one.

steelfox98 said:👍
This really highlights the root cause. This isn't a problem that started last month; it started twenty years ago. The scheme hasn't changed much, except now they say "The Russians can't say that, only we can."

This hasn't even truly begun. If Russia shuts off the gas, a huge chunk of industry stands still. Honestly, I'm not sure what would even be left standing, given how interconnected everything is. They say 95% of chemical production depends directly on energy.
Agriculture—the European Union is a top global producer, but they consume 90% of what they grow, leaving little surplus. What happens without fertilizers—which the Americans declared a strategic interest and pulled out of sanctions—combined with skyrocketing fuel prices?

Russia has food and energy; Germans have Ford and Chevrolet. Who is actually more practical in a crisis, and who is used to hardship?

Here's another one who clearly doesn't have a clue about production numbers or scale, but is absolutely certain that Germany and the EU are going to suffer way worse than Russia...😁

God. It is truly mind-blowing how strongly ignorance and some half-baked understanding of economics and world affairs correlate with being pro-Russia and acting all high and mighty...

And if you look at any of the posts from the weeks leading up to the invasion until today—man, every single prediction made by a Putin-fan was dead wrong... it's fascinating, really.

Look, you don't need to lose sleep over Germany. Sure, they might slow down, they might slip into a recession for a year or two, and their standard of living might dip, but nobody is going to be starving. Usually, a "drop in standards" in Germany looks like this: "I was gonna buy an Audi, but now I'll settle for a Passat," or the guy who wanted a Passat settling for a golf.

A real Russian crisis is when your currency becomes worthless, your country is under total blockade and isolated from the world, people are getting arrested by the thousands in the streets, and the whole damn clock winds back 40 years until you're manufacturing cars based on 1980s tech...

And you seriously think Russia will come out of a crisis "more practically"? 🤣😁

Man... you can read some absolute nonsense on this forum...

wearytrucker22 said:The Germans don't need to worry about food; they've got plenty.https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryPr...16-24_FoodProd

The Germans are working on a plan to disconnect from the gas grid. They originally considered shutting down the chemical industry too, but they aren't willing to do that yet. First, they'll cut off shopping malls, service sectors, and electricity—that accounts for about 60% of Russian gas imports.

They’ll basically shut down all the heavy industrial users first, leaving private citizens—regular folks—to be the very last ones on the list.
Think about it: two weeks without power and you've got total chaos breaking out in every single city. Honestly, more than 90% of people wouldn't even have enough food in their pantry to last two days.

"Quote:"

Maria Moore said:The devil is in the details, as always. CNN goes into more detail here:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/15/p...bus/index.html

"The new funding will provide additional humanitarian, security and economic assistance for Ukraine and allies in The region.
Roughly half of The aid Package will be used to deploy troops to The region and send defense equipment to Ukraine, according to a summary of the bill provided by the House Appropriations Committee.
The US Has deployed thousands of troops throughout Europe , both before and during Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But putting troops on the ground in Ukraine, which is not a member of NATO, is a line that the US and its western allies have not been willing to Cross.
Much of The other half of The aid will providjeti humanitarian support for refugees fleeing Ukraine and People displaced within The country , including emergency food assistance , as well as Help to respond to The economic needs in Ukraine and neighboring countries, such as cybersecurity and energy issues."

So, that $13.6 billion USD total package covers everything—support for all NATO members (like extra troop deployments in Eastern Europe), plus humanitarian aid for refugees. Only about $800 million USD of that is actually direct weapons aid for Ukraine.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/15/p...ine/index.html

But honestly, that isn't even the big question. What I'm actually wondering about is where the US promised to fund everyone else's donations. I highly doubt the USA is going to write checks to Norway, Sweden, Germany, United Kingdom, and the rest to cover the cost of the weapons they've sent over to Ukraine.

Donations are donations, man, watch your step. And since you're so eager to get into the weeds, you might as well look at this too:

Another $650 million dumped into this financing program to keep pumping weapons, gear, and training into Ukraine and other countries affected by The War. It’s basically just handing out loans and grants to buy more American hardware.
I can't believe people are actually reading this trash. Just more noise. Total nonsense.

What do you think would actually happen if they tried to transfer those Slovakian S-300s or the Polish Migs?

Brenda Murphy3 said:Here's another one who clearly doesn't have a clue about production numbers or scale, but is absolutely certain that Germany and the EU are going to suffer way worse than Russia...😁

God. It is truly mind-blowing how strongly ignorance and some half-baked understanding of economics and world affairs correlate with being pro-Russia and acting all high and mighty...

And if you look at any of the posts from the weeks leading up to the invasion until today—man, every single prediction made by a Putin-fan was dead wrong... it's fascinating, really.

Look, you don't need to lose sleep over Germany. Sure, they might slow down, they might slip into a recession for a year or two, and their standard of living might dip, but nobody is going to be starving. Usually, a "drop in standards" in Germany looks like this: "I was gonna buy an Audi, but now I'll settle for a Passat," or the guy who wanted a Passat settling for a golf.

A real Russian crisis is when your currency becomes worthless, your country is under total blockade and isolated from the world, people are getting arrested by the thousands in the streets, and the whole damn clock winds back 40 years until you're manufacturing cars based on 1980s tech...

And you seriously think Russia will come out of a crisis "more practically"? 🤣😁

Man... you can read some absolute nonsense on this forum...

It's not that anyone will go hungry, but there will definitely be shortages.
That's actually a chance for some political shifts to happen, though.

David Torres2 said:I can't help but wonder if this whole demand to pay for gas in rubles is actually just Putin's way of taking a swing at those local Oligarchs.
I mean, think about it—no major bank outside of Russia is going to touch those rubles to swap them for Dollars or euros.
It’s basically the opposite in Germany; everything there is going to grind to a halt if they don't get enough gas or oil soon. For instance, those LNG terminals that are supposed to make up for the lost capacity?
They aren't even scheduled to be ready until 2024.

The whole situation feels like some twisted endurance test to see who runs out of air first. Honestly, both Europe and Russia are probably going to lose this one.

According to the latest analyses regarding what might happen if the gas flow from Russia actually stops, the impact on the German economy isn't nearly as catastrophic as people fear—provided they pull the same kind of political levers they used back during the 2008 crash and the COVID crisis.
Supposedly, the negative fallout should only be around the level we saw with the pandemic... maybe roughly -3%.
I, for one, am crossing my fingers that Putler finally turns off the gas tap.
Best regards,

David Torres2 said:It's not that anyone will go hungry, but there will definitely be shortages.
That's actually a chance for some political shifts to happen, though.

Look, obviously there will be shortages, but I doubt we'll run out of the absolute essentials that trigger riots and total chaos, which is what people are freaking out about here.

Even during the whole COVID mess, there were shortages, and honestly, we still deal with them all the time, yet I don't see the standard of living in Europe plummeting. If anything, this is probably a massive long-term win for Europe because manufacturing is likely to start moving back home. They’ll actually start considering things besides just chasing a quick buck.

Things might get a little dicey, sure, but the idea that one Russia could bring the entire EU to its knees through blackmail is just laughable... maybe the Russians would have more leverage if they weren't so desperately dependent on selling their energy, but at the end of the day, they're basically a banana republic where something like 60% of their GDP relies on energy exports. Without those sales, Russia falls apart—no money, no salaries, no pensions... nothing.

If things start getting messy in Europe, you can bet your life that Russia will completely implode from the inside out.

David Torres2 said:They’ll basically shut down all the heavy industrial users first, leaving private citizens—regular folks—to be the very last ones on the list.
Think about it: two weeks without power and you've got total chaos breaking out in every single city. Honestly, more than 90% of people wouldn't even have enough food in their pantry to last two days.

That’s exactly why the grid hits residents before it hits industry. In the States, if you shut down a massive facility like a Dow Chemical plant, you're cutting off 650 million cubic meters of gas. They produce maybe 1.1 to 1.3 million tons of fertilizer, while the entire US consumes roughly 280,000 to 350,000. This means the real crisis is going to hit the Eastern Seaboard way harder than the rest of the country.