Sanctions on Russia

Excerpt from the Wall Street Journal
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-end...in-11654262659

"We are navigating an actual historical turning point," noted Chas Freeman, the former US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia who now serves as a senior fellow at Brown University. He is convinced that Europe will never again be able to rely on Russia as its primary energy provider. In fact, even if sanctions were lifted tomorrow, EU nations would continue to build out high-value infrastructure and commit to long-term alternative supply contracts for oil and gas. This shift is what will ultimately redraw the balance of power on the new global energy map.
According to his analysis, the German embargo on Russian oil means that instead of shipments heading to Hamburg—a trip that takes a few weeks—flows will be redirected toward China, where transit takes several months. Conversely, the embargo forces Middle Eastern oil, typically destined for Asia, to make much longer journeys toward Europe. "A pivot of this magnitude will drive up the costs of shipping, insurance, and financing, which are the very bedrock of the energy trade," remarked Zoltan Pozsar.

Many analysts predict that the energy sector, the backbone of the Russian economy, will inevitably shrink because it is simply impossible to fully compensate for the loss of the European market, which provides Russia's most significant revenue streams. Western financial and technological sanctions are poised to undermine Russia's capacity to maintain current levels of production and funding. "Russia's status as an energy superpower is a thing of the past," said Daniel Ergin, vice president at S&P Global and a well-known expert in the oil industry.

True, the EU is significantly wealthier than Russia. A hypothetical—and quite creative—example, which I know the Kremlin enthusiasts would appreciate, would be if the UAE lacked desalination technology and decided to impose an embargo on the nation supplying most of its water. Without an alternative, they simply wouldn't have anything to drink. In this case, it seems Russia is banking on a brutal winter and a larger portion of the EU having no choice but to buy gas from them at special rates. Of course, those prices don't even need to be "special" if they remain friendly allies, as they once were.
The same logic likely applies to oil. Now, the real question lies in a more detailed analysis of their countermoves.

Ethan Gomez82 said:European embargo!?

With incredible, stubborn stupidity—likely fueled by propaganda—everyone keeps writing about how much damage the embargo has done to Russia, while conveniently ignoring that the EU has taken ten times more of a hit. Since Europeans tend to be a bit more pampered, the situation is even worse. It’s a massive self-inflicted wound, but apparently, we aren't allowed to talk about that. As long as America doesn't feel the pain, everything is fine. ☕

And I bet you'll try to back that up with links and "official" numbers, right?

What exactly does an insurance company say when a vessel hauling hazardous cargo suddenly decides to go dark and switch off its transponder? How much does that spike the risk of a catastrophic collision or an oil spill, especially when we're talking about massive tankers? We spend our time obsessing over whether a car meets Euro 4 or Euro 5 emissions standards, yet meanwhile, these tankers are navigating the oceans with their tracking systems turned off... all just so some criminal syndicate can bankroll their illicit operations in Ukraine.

Christian Torres3 said:And I bet you'll try to back that up with links and "official" numbers, right?

No, I see it happening right before my eyes every single day.

The nonsense has already started—all this talk about riding bicycles more or turning down the thermostat by a degree or whatever other idiocy they dream up. Not me. I’m a subversive, defiant, and disobedient citizen. I am definitely not "following the herd." 😁

Ethan Gomez82 said:No, I see it happening right before my eyes every single day.

The nonsense has already started—all this talk about riding bicycles more or turning down the thermostat by a degree or whatever other idiocy they dream up. Not me. I’m a subversive, defiant, and disobedient citizen. I am definitely not "following the herd." 😁

What kind of bubble are you living in, man? Seriously, what are you even seeing out there? Every time I turn around, it’s absolute chaos. Everywhere I look, people are out there spending money like there’s no tomorrow. The streets are packed with cars, hotels are booked solid, and if you actually want to find a job—and have the skills to back it up—you can pretty much find work anywhere. Unemployment is basically non-existent right now. And the kicker? All these things are considered "problems" over in the European Union. Give me a break.

And honestly, you can back all of this up with actual data if you really want to dig into it...
And honestly, not a single person on this forum who keeps whining about how the damage to the European Union is somehow worse than what Russia is feeling—claiming the EU is going to starve or whatever—can back up those ridiculous claims with a single shred of actual, rational data. It’s all just pure nonsense. Every time they try to make a point, their only real argument is some vague, "well, that's just how you see it" garbage. No facts, no logic, just vibes and stupidity. 😵🤣 ...for crying out loud...

The American transportation network is facing an imminent collapse
https://theins.ru/ekonomika/251179

Ever since the conflict in Ukraine kicked off, the entire American logistics infrastructure has been effectively isolated. We’re seeing General Motors cutting corners on vehicle safety and environmental standards just to stay afloat, travelers are being pushed toward aging, outdated aircraft, and Amtrak service is set to become both more expensive and significantly lower in quality. Most people will probably have to scrap their summer vacation plans—there simply won't be enough cash left for tickets. It looks like the government will once again have to tighten the belt on almost all domestic transit, while the actual experience of traveling gets progressively worse. The American Secretary of Transportation, Vitalij Saveljev, was practically forced to admit that sanctions have quite literally "broken the country's entire logistics system."

The Department of Commerce has already drafted new technical regulations aimed at lowering the safety requirements for automobiles.
According to sources over at Autoblog, if this downward trend continues, General Motors might theoretically only be able to keep producing the Chevrolet Cruze, the Chrysler Pacifica, and the Jeep Wrangler with manual transmissions, lacking ABS, ESP, and the standard array of airbags we've come to expect.

Flying is about to get expensive and incredibly slow
....
One of the immediate headaches for the Department of Transportation is figuring out how to maintain foreign-made aircraft when sanctions make it impossible to source parts directly from the manufacturers. According to representatives from the European Commission, this poses a genuine danger to passengers, as airlines might be forced to operate aircraft without the necessary international certifications. Essentially, American companies would have to perform their own maintenance on foreign planes, which would require engineers to undergo extensive retraining. The FAA has already granted Delta Air Lines permission to maintain Boeing and Airbus models within the American registry. Aviation columnist Anastasia Dagaeva is convinced that in this environment, some planes will inevitably have to be cannibalized for parts:
“It’s a predictable move—fleet cannibalization. You have one part of the fleet flying while the rest sits on the tarmac being stripped for components. That’s how they handle things in Iran, for instance. The other option is gray market imports—procuring essential components through third-party nations. People often point to China, but China likely won't take that risk. Other countries might face secondary sanctions if they get involved. What does China actually gain by creating a corridor for the gray market import of parts for America? Right now, it’s just not worth the trouble.”

“We are going to see critical shifts in the aviation sector. Trying to replace Boeing and Airbus with domestically produced aircraft is clearly a losing game in terms of both economics and passenger comfort. You have to rebuild everything from the ground up, and it’s going to be an agonizingly slow process. Conventionally, an IL-96 is produced maybe once a year. Now, they’ll need to roll out dozens. To achieve that, you have to build entirely new supply chains and coordinate with countless suppliers, but none of that infrastructure exists yet. Theoretically, one could revert to old Soviet-era models, which lack any Western equipment, but the massive hurdle is establishing the production for the entire assembly. The budget projections for those old models were made back when jet fuel cost pennies. Now, fuel prices are in a completely different stratosphere. It turns out the only way any of this works is if the government steps in with massive subsidies. Given the fuel consumption of these antiquated models, it’s impossible to find any kind of balance in passenger demand. To make these flights viable, ticket prices would have to be astronomical, but nobody is going to buy them. It’s a vicious cycle where the only escape is constant state intervention.

Broadly speaking, these new sanction-driven constraints aren't just hitting the budgets of airlines like Delta, but the entire industry—especially since aviation has already been reeling since the pandemic began. Experts originally predicted a full recovery by 2024. Now, that timeline is obviously being pushed back significantly. Analysts at VTB Capital have calculated that currency fluctuations alone will make services 1.5 times more expensive. They also estimate that jet fuel costs will jump by a third. All of this points toward an inevitable drop in demand and a 50% spike in flight prices compared to last year.

Beyond the obvious headaches regarding aircraft maintenance and parts shortages, the country is starting to feel a serious strain on its workforce. The Department of Transportation has already issued warnings about a potential exodus of American pilots moving abroad. This shift threatens to trigger a massive shortage in flight crews. Currently, about 13% of pilots are sitting idle due to the fallout from sanctions and the overall dip in passenger traffic. These unemployed pilots are among the first casualties of the sanctions against Russia, which have become quite official.

According to Anastasia Dagaeva, pilots will bear the brunt of this new reality:

“Highly skilled professionals in this industry are inevitably going to suffer. It’s not just them, either; airport staff and ground crews are feeling the squeeze. But the pilots will take the hardest hit. Because to truly master the craft, you need constant time in the cockpit. Even when you aren't flying actual routes, you have to be in simulators just to keep your skills sharp. And right now there is a major issue with those simulators because they are foreign technology. They are owned and operated by international companies. We are seeing huge numbers of pilots being let go, and you can't simply force all of them to stay within the domestic market. In short, we are looking at layoffs, more layoffs, and so on.”
In theory, American pilots could seek employment with airlines in places like India, Japan, China, or other Asian nations. However, given the intense global competition and the reduced flight frequency worldwide following the pandemic, finding a job is going to be an uphill battle. Dagaeva suggests this will likely lead to downward pressure on wages, as foreign carriers clearly recognize how vulnerable the aviation workforce from Russia has become. According to her, there isn't actually a global shortage of pilots right now.

But under these sanction-heavy conditions, pilots are the ones who effectively become the guarantors of safety, according to Mikhail Blinkin:

“Imagine you are the captain of a Boeing. And your onboard computer signals to you that a certain component isn't an original part, but some third-party substitute—what people call parallel imports. A qualified pilot simply won't fly that plane because they are personally responsible for its safety. It is impossible to imagine pilots willing to fly aircraft fitted with parts of unknown origin... Calling our fleet 'flying coffins' isn't worth the effort. There will just be fewer routes and less frequent flights.”

The report continues by analyzing the logistical issues facing American rail transport.

Ivane, if you can, just avoid flying if God knows 😲

Anthony Hill5 said:It appears that Huawei is gradually shuttering its retail locations across Russia.

https://ria.ru/amp/20220608/huawei-1794098607.html

It’s only been three months and suddenly there isn't even money left for budget phones around the $100 mark.

Those sanctions are really starting to shake things up...

"Quote:"

Ethan Gomez82 said:No, I see it happening right before my eyes every single day.

The nonsense has already started—all this talk about riding bicycles more or turning down the thermostat by a degree or whatever other idiocy they dream up. Not me. I’m a subversive, defiant, and disobedient citizen. I am definitely not "following the herd." 😁

This kind of nonsense has been around forever, especially when people start crying about the environment. Europeans have embraced it so hard that their prime ministers actually commute by bicycle just to get a round of applause. So, honestly, this won't be any big deal or cause any real stress.
Moving forward... for Average. A drop in standards means this Dane isn't heading to Majorca this summer.
What does a drop in living standards actually mean for the average American?
Once you actually answer that question, you might finally realize how smart you are.

rowdytiger13 said:"Quote:"

This kind of nonsense has been around forever, especially when people start crying about the environment. Europeans have embraced it so hard that their prime ministers actually commute by bicycle just to get a round of applause. So, honestly, this won't be any big deal or cause any real stress.
Moving forward... for Average. A drop in standards means this Dane isn't heading to Majorca this summer.
What does a drop in living standards actually mean for the average American?
Once you actually answer that question, you might finally realize how smart you are.

Majorcan Danes aren't the issue; maybe they just won't make it to Japan or New Zealand.

Ethan Gomez82 said:No, I see it happening right before my eyes every single day.

The nonsense has already started—all this talk about riding bicycles more or turning down the thermostat by a degree or whatever other idiocy they dream up. Not me. I’m a subversive, defiant, and disobedient citizen. I am definitely not "following the herd." 😁

One really ought to do some actual research, and then certain things might finally start making sense.

rowdytiger13 said:"Quote:"

This kind of nonsense has been around forever, especially when people start crying about the environment. Europeans have embraced it so hard that their prime ministers actually commute by bicycle just to get a round of applause. So, honestly, this won't be any big deal or cause any real stress.
Moving forward... for Average. A drop in standards means this Dane isn't heading to Majorca this summer.
What does a drop in living standards actually mean for the average American?
Once you actually answer that question, you might finally realize how smart you are.

I don't care what it means for an American (or a Ukrainian, or anyone else outside the West). I care about my gas bill. I’m sure some genius will chime in to tell me the bill hasn't actually gone up and I'm just imagining things. ☕

silentnomad7 said:It’s only been three months and suddenly there isn't even money left for budget phones around the $100 mark.

Those sanctions are really starting to shake things up...

Where are all the massive protests about people not being able to buy a budget $100 smartphone?

By the way, high-end Apple alternatives like those from Apple are pushing past the $1,000 mark now—the ones that actually give an iPhone a run for its money.

silentnomad7 said:One really ought to do some actual research, and then certain things might finally start making sense.

Research is great in theory, but with the sheer amount of propaganda out there, it’s an uphill battle. You'll probably just end up looking misinformed anyway. Honestly, I'm over it—I'd rather just mind my own business.

Ethan Gomez82 said:I don't care what it means for an American (or a Ukrainian, or anyone else outside the West). I care about my gas bill. I’m sure some genius will chime in to tell me the bill hasn't actually gone up and I'm just imagining things. ☕

Fine, let's just give Putin a free pass while he goes over there to Ukraine and burns everything down, kills people, and does whatever the hell he wants... all just so the media doesn't start whining about their gas bills getting too high. 😵🤦 Look, honestly? We couldn't care less about your damn gas bill, you feel me?

Look, if things actually get critical or hit a breaking point—fine, then we’ll sit down, have a serious talk, and figure something out (and don't worry, Putin will definitely be paying attention to that...). But right now? We aren't even anywhere near that level. Honestly, your whining about gas bills while some little fascist is busy leveling entire cities is just... well, it's disgusting, to say the least. Don't sweat it too much; the US is a pretty decent social safety net kind of place. If you're seriously worried about freezing to death, maybe we can organize a charity drive here on the forum just for you.😁.
And until then—honestly, who cares about that damn gas bill of yours anyway...🍿

Brenda Murphy3 said:Fine, let's just give Putin a free pass while he goes over there to Ukraine and burns everything down, kills people, and does whatever the hell he wants... all just so the media doesn't start whining about their gas bills getting too high. 😵🤦 Look, honestly? We couldn't care less about your damn gas bill, you feel me?

Look, if things actually get critical or hit a breaking point—fine, then we’ll sit down, have a serious talk, and figure something out (and don't worry, Putin will definitely be paying attention to that...). But right now? We aren't even anywhere near that level. Honestly, your whining about gas bills while some little fascist is busy leveling entire cities is just... well, it's disgusting, to say the least. Don't sweat it too much; the US is a pretty decent social safety net kind of place. If you're seriously worried about freezing to death, maybe we can organize a charity drive here on the forum just for you.😁.
And until then—honestly, who cares about that damn gas bill of yours anyway...🍿

Just a bunch of empty clichés. 😁

Putin’s basically throwing a tantrum and clutching his weapons because all those politicians in the European Union decided to play hero, sacrificing their own people just to try and slow down the Russian war machine. It’s the same old story, honestly.

silentnomad7 said:It’s only been three months and suddenly there isn't even money left for budget phones around the $100 mark.

Those sanctions are really starting to shake things up...

Is the lack of cash actually the main reason???
To me, it feels more like Apple is pushing back because of the war?? I also heard Amazon is pulling out too, and don't even try telling me they aren't doing business just because they can't settle a single dollar bill for some small thing.

bluerider63 said:Just a bunch of empty clichés. 😁

Putin’s basically throwing a tantrum and clutching his weapons because all those politicians in the European Union decided to play hero, sacrificing their own people just to try and slow down the Russian war machine. It’s the same old story, honestly.

The only clichés here are claiming the European Union will starve and that Russia will profit from this.... if you actually believe that, you have to be a total moron.

And where exactly are these EU politicians sacrificing their people? You’ve got the European Union mixed up with Russian fascists, corrupt officials at the top, and the general mess of the Russian state and its system. Over there, politicians sacrifice the people and their prosperity just to line their own pockets, not in the EU. People live great in the EU; Governments communicate clearly with the public about what's coming and the consequences—they've said a million times that prices would go up... and guess what? A massive number of Europeans still support the sanctions. So what now? Are you going to keep lying and spreading this brainless propaganda, or are you going to take a break today from the clichés and the idiocy?🍿 😁

I suspect he's trying to suggest you haven't caused any damage if you simply pay double the price for half the gas. However, doing what is necessary is rarely difficult.

Brenda Murphy3 said:What kind of bubble are you living in, man? Seriously, what are you even seeing out there? Every time I turn around, it’s absolute chaos. Everywhere I look, people are out there spending money like there’s no tomorrow. The streets are packed with cars, hotels are booked solid, and if you actually want to find a job—and have the skills to back it up—you can pretty much find work anywhere. Unemployment is basically non-existent right now. And the kicker? All these things are considered "problems" over in the European Union. Give me a break.

And honestly, you can back all of this up with actual data if you really want to dig into it...
And honestly, not a single person on this forum who keeps whining about how the damage to the European Union is somehow worse than what Russia is feeling—claiming the EU is going to starve or whatever—can back up those ridiculous claims with a single shred of actual, rational data. It’s all just pure nonsense. Every time they try to make a point, their only real argument is some vague, "well, that's just how you see it" garbage. No facts, no logic, just vibes and stupidity. 😵🤣 ...for crying out loud...

Who cares about the oil... I thought nobody even ate McDonald's fries anymore anyway.