Sanctions on Russia

Nancy Gomez26 said:I know exactly what I was paying for fertilizer four, three, or two years ago compared to what I'm paying today. But the biggest spike in fertilizer prices happened long before sanctions were ever introduced, so blaming this on sanctions feels like a massive stretch. Maybe someone had a crystal ball and saw it all coming. Sanctions certainly didn't help bring prices down, but they definitely weren't the primary driver for such a massive surge (especially that pre-war, pre-sanction jump). On the other hand—let's be honest—wheat prices rose simultaneously, so the math for production remains relatively stable. In my neck of the woods, corn is planted wherever there's an inch of soil left, because people are betting on demand this fall. If it weren't profitable, they wouldn't bother, but eventually, the hammer will fall—so we'll see how things pan out by autumn. What strikes me is the relatively small increase in grocery store prices compared to the surge in corn prices. Corn is a fundamental input for meat production; if it climbs 300% in two or three years, you'd expect meat prices to follow suit.

The pandemic and the government's response to it have a significant impact on inflation. We are essentially paying the bill for the pandemic right now, along with all the extra costs it triggered. It's all the price of that Chinese virus from Wuhan. On the flip side, the government's reaction also carries a price tag. Even the biggest vaccine proponents are starting to realize that maybe ordering 20 million doses wasn't necessary, and now they're back at the negotiating table with manufacturers to try and scale back. I'm just curious about the penalty clauses in those contracts for canceling orders; I hope they aren't more expensive than the cost of actually producing the doses.

The pandemic and the lockdowns certainly played a role, but that's in the rearview mirror now, and prices aren't reverting to where they used to be; they just keep climbing relentlessly.

In a free market, prices are driven by expectations rather than just calculated costs like in a socialist system, which is why they started climbing long before the effects of the pandemic were truly felt in Europe and the rest of the world.

It all started with American pressure to halt the construction of Nord Stream 2, and everything since then has followed a predictable pattern.

Here is a slightly older article from the BBC that was discussing the difficulties in building that supply route as far back as January 2021, and specifically who was pushing hardest to stop the project.

https://www.dw.com/hr/sjeverni-tok-2...nda/a-56396570

You can find plenty of information online detailing how these events unfolded, ultimately culminating in the Russian military intervention in Ukraine.

But hey, if someone chooses to ignore that or refuses to connect the dots, that's on them.
Personally, I don't have the energy right now to keep proving points or reminding people of past events when it feels like nothing changes.
It seems like the media frenzy was incredibly effective at creating a shield that makes it almost impossible for the truth to break through.

Even that mythical Western "unity" is clearly fracturing at the seams—and not just when it comes to Viktor Orbán, but even with major NATO members who used to be staunchly pro-Western.

https://www.trt.net.tr/american/turs...zapada-1841949

I sent you a link regarding the opening of the bridge over the Amur River, which should be obvious to anyone with a bit of sense: Russia is pivoting toward the East and strengthening ties with China.
You didn't respond to that, but we shouldn't forget that the Russians have built icebreakers capable of keeping the "Northern Sea Route" open year-round—which is essentially the shortest path from the gas-rich Yamal Peninsula straight to China.

brightheron64 said:Well, this is a bit of a mess...

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The Vice President is ramping up an urgent plea for Americans to start cutting back on their energy consumption following the news that ExxonMobil announced significant cuts in natural gas deliveries through a key pipeline.

On Tuesday, state-owned ExxonMobil announced they were slashing gas flows through the undersea Nord Stream 1 pipeline by 40%, and then just twenty-four hours later, they dropped even more bad news about further cuts that bring the total reduction to roughly 60%...

They'll be "saving energy" by cranking the AC full blast all summer long along the coast.

Nathan Evans78 said:They'll be "saving energy" by cranking the AC full blast all summer long along the coast.

Tell them to stay away! Running air conditioning like that is definitely not in our best interest.

George Robinson43 said:Tell them to stay away! Running air conditioning like that is definitely not in our best interest.

Where exactly is Ledov ice cream manufactured?

brightheron64 said:Well, this is a bit of a mess...

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The Vice President is ramping up an urgent plea for Americans to start cutting back on their energy consumption following the news that ExxonMobil announced significant cuts in natural gas deliveries through a key pipeline.

On Tuesday, state-owned ExxonMobil announced they were slashing gas flows through the undersea Nord Stream 1 pipeline by 40%, and then just twenty-four hours later, they dropped even more bad news about further cuts that bring the total reduction to roughly 60%...

In all realism, Russia might have maybe 18 months left to mess with Germany, and even then, it’s mostly just regarding gas (they can't really touch oil anymore).

After that, Germany will be the one causing them trouble, and we won't be talking in months, but decades...

Jack Hill2 said:In all realism, Russia might have maybe 18 months left to mess with Germany, and even then, it’s mostly just regarding gas (they can't really touch oil anymore).

After that, Germany will be the one causing them trouble, and we won't be talking in months, but decades...

I honestly think you might be mistaken here.

An American farmer won't have much to spread across his fields during the next planting season, and whatever he does manage to get his hands on is going to cost him significantly more than the "Russian" supplies he's been relying on until now.
It makes me wonder if the US will ever truly regain its food self-sufficiency.

The US has already made moves toward phasing out certain fuels by 2035, but they haven't quite figured out how to generate enough electricity for all those cars, especially since the underlying technology isn't even fully mature yet.
When your input costs skyrocket, no amount of American productivity can create a competitive product—not against Russia, but against anyone else who manages to secure cheaper inputs and reliable access to raw materials at reasonable prices.
All the intelligence and advanced technology in the world won't save you if you don't have the materials needed to cast engine blocks, pistons, or even EV batteries. We're already seeing lithium prices surge in anticipation of massive electric vehicle production, and even battery recycling is becoming increasingly expensive.
While the US remains technologically advanced and highly competitive, being positioned this way actually makes us more vulnerable to market volatility, supply chain disruptions, and the fluctuating costs of raw materials and other essential inputs.

Jack Hill2 said:In all realism, Russia might have maybe 18 months left to mess with Germany, and even then, it’s mostly just regarding gas (they can't really touch oil anymore).

After that, Germany will be the one causing them trouble, and we won't be talking in months, but decades...

The moment this war finally draws to a close and some kind of international agreement is reached, profit will once again become the primary driver, and I don't see anyone playing games at that point...

After the dust settles, do you really think the Germans are going to keep paying premium prices for LPG when they used to have Russian gas delivered right to their doorstep? It seems highly unlikely they would just hand over their hard-earned money like that...

German manufacturing? Please.
Everything is being outsourced to the Far East anyway—even Siemens gas pumps are manufactured in Canada now.
Production follows the raw materials and, whenever possible, cheaper labor. If some idiot hadn't been running Russia for the last 25 years, they could have actually outpaced China in the industrial sector. They have the resources, they have the people, and half of the major European firms would've happily built factories right there in Russia... but when faced with two evils, they chose the lesser of them: China, India, Bangladesh, or Vietnam. It’s like buying a high-end laptop only to find the processor was made in Malaysia.
Not even the US is immune. Certain Tesla models are produced in China...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giga_Shanghai

urbanotter said:I honestly think you might be mistaken here.

An American farmer won't have much to spread across his fields during the next planting season, and whatever he does manage to get his hands on is going to cost him significantly more than the "Russian" supplies he's been relying on until now.
It makes me wonder if the US will ever truly regain its food self-sufficiency.

The US has already made moves toward phasing out certain fuels by 2035, but they haven't quite figured out how to generate enough electricity for all those cars, especially since the underlying technology isn't even fully mature yet.
When your input costs skyrocket, no amount of American productivity can create a competitive product—not against Russia, but against anyone else who manages to secure cheaper inputs and reliable access to raw materials at reasonable prices.
All the intelligence and advanced technology in the world won't save you if you don't have the materials needed to cast engine blocks, pistons, or even EV batteries. We're already seeing lithium prices surge in anticipation of massive electric vehicle production, and even battery recycling is becoming increasingly expensive.
While the US remains technologically advanced and highly competitive, being positioned this way actually makes us more vulnerable to market volatility, supply chain disruptions, and the fluctuating costs of raw materials and other essential inputs.

That all sounds fine, but what use are pistons in an electric vehicle? 😁
I am not worried about the Germans. They are panicking right now because they are used to organizing everything years in advance—which is how serious nations actually operate—but now the variables are shifting on so many fronts that precise forecasting is impossible. When you can't predict the future, you can't prepare for it, and that is where the panic sets in.
Sure, the Chinese could build a Mercedes, and it would certainly be cheaper—but nobody (at least not the people currently buying new Mercedes models) would actually buy it. Even if Mercedes opened a plant in China (they likely already have them there), a car coming off that specific line wouldn't sell in the European Union or the USA. If I am paying for a Mercedes here, I expect it to be 'made in Germany,' whether it was assembled on a Friday afternoon or a Monday morning. Since the market has gone global, sourcing materials won't be an issue, but the cost will rise while margins shrink. Those with enough money to afford a brand-new luxury car? They won't care either way.

Nancy Gomez26 said:That all sounds fine, but what use are pistons in an electric vehicle? 😁
I am not worried about the Germans. They are panicking right now because they are used to organizing everything years in advance—which is how serious nations actually operate—but now the variables are shifting on so many fronts that precise forecasting is impossible. When you can't predict the future, you can't prepare for it, and that is where the panic sets in.
Sure, the Chinese could build a Mercedes, and it would certainly be cheaper—but nobody (at least not the people currently buying new Mercedes models) would actually buy it. Even if Mercedes opened a plant in China (they likely already have them there), a car coming off that specific line wouldn't sell in the European Union or the USA. If I am paying for a Mercedes here, I expect it to be 'made in Germany,' whether it was assembled on a Friday afternoon or a Monday morning. Since the market has gone global, sourcing materials won't be an issue, but the cost will rise while margins shrink. Those with enough money to afford a brand-new luxury car? They won't care either way.

Hold on a second; he hasn't quite grasped the full picture yet.

Just wait until he realizes that the entire competitive landscape in the Far East has been fueled by LNG for decades!

Jack Hill2 said:In all realism, Russia might have maybe 18 months left to mess with Germany, and even then, it’s mostly just regarding gas (they can't really touch oil anymore).

After that, Germany will be the one causing them trouble, and we won't be talking in months, but decades...

The Americans aren't going to push anyone around. To put it bluntly: if they want to sell gas in the States, they'll have to bake the cost of "supply insecurity" into the price—both the instability of the past and the uncertainty of the future. Once the gas flowing through those pipes is properly valued for both sides of the deal, the valves will open. Gas will flow from the East to the West, and in the opposite direction, bits will flow through computers, marking balances on bank accounts. Since bits are just virtual constructs, the Russians will likely focus on spending that wealth by building mega-yachts in American waters or buying luxury cars. That’s better than them getting the bright idea to build some new version of a Moscow-class vessel that Ukrainians will just have to sink again. Forget the ship; it's the sailors I feel for.

Good grief, don't you all get tired of typing out the same old tired script about how Germany is falling apart? I feel like I've been listening to this exact same mantra for over 25 years now.
It’s funny, really—how this hollow argument almost always seems to come from the very people who are busy sucking up to Putin and Russia.

Look, guys, I don't know about you, but from where I'm standing, it looks like your precious little darling Russia is in much deeper trouble than a struggling Germany could ever be.
Best regards,

That’s exactly what the USSR was banking on—waiting for Western Europe to finally collapse under its own weight.

Bryan Booth82 said:Good grief, don't you all get tired of typing out the same old tired script about how Germany is falling apart? I feel like I've been listening to this exact same mantra for over 25 years now.
It’s funny, really—how this hollow argument almost always seems to come from the very people who are busy sucking up to Putin and Russia.

Look, guys, I don't know about you, but from where I'm standing, it looks like your precious little darling Russia is in much deeper trouble than a struggling Germany could ever be.
Best regards,

That is a perfectly normal state of affairs for Russia. For Germany, a mere 0.3% drop in growth compared to the previous year is considered a national crisis. Comparing the two is... well, it's incomparable. It simply makes no sense. Both nations are holding their own within their respective parameters. It's just that those parameters are vastly different.

Imagine if the Russian Federation were actually prospering—if wages and living standards rose steadily over decades, and the general population actually saw some progress... who would go to war then? And once they had a taste of stability, they might even start looking to demand changes at the top. So, for them, this status quo is better. If there is any surplus wealth, it just means a few extra meters on a yacht anchored somewhere—perhaps even in a marina along the Adriatic Sea. And there we have it.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Let's not kid ourselves thinking we gained anything from those yellow tiles. Perhaps we simply preserved the labor that went into them, and in this day and age, that counts for something—preserving what was already built within realistic bounds.
Sanctions aren't the cause of the crisis (or maybe they account for 5%, if you listen to some guy on another thread). The foundations of this crisis were laid long ago; today, we are simply receiving the bill.

Go ahead and check the inflation rates before and after February. It all traces back to raw materials and energy costs—and the European Union doesn't have a single damn thing of either.
We produce more food than anyone else on the planet—great. Except we went and slapped sanctions on fertilizer. Just sitting here waiting to see the fallout once harvest season actually hits.
Flour prices have already spiked 50% in just the last four months. I remember when a bag of King Arthur didn't cost a small fortune at the local grocery store. It's all going downhill fast.

brightheron64 said:Well, this is a bit of a mess...

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The Vice President is ramping up an urgent plea for Americans to start cutting back on their energy consumption following the news that ExxonMobil announced significant cuts in natural gas deliveries through a key pipeline.

On Tuesday, state-owned ExxonMobil announced they were slashing gas flows through the undersea Nord Stream 1 pipeline by 40%, and then just twenty-four hours later, they dropped even more bad news about further cuts that bring the total reduction to roughly 60%...

The Germans slapped sanctions on spare parts, and now they’re sweating over a single turbine while Russia just laughs at them. The Yamal pipeline is dead in the water. Last month, Ukrainians choked off part of the supply, and now the Americans are dealing with their own mess involving a damaged terminal... everything is falling apart.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if they slashed exports to Europe even further just to rein in domestic prices. Elections are right around the corner, and Joe Biden is sitting on his worst approval ratings in US history.

What’s the deal with the supply from Qatar? Three months ago, the Germans were all over the news claiming they’d struck a deal, only for the Qatari side to turn around and say they hadn't a clue what anyone was talking about. Typical.
Now they’re trekking across Africa begging for scraps, just so Olaf Scholz can stand up and give some grand speech about "progress" without actually delivering a single thing. In plain English? It's nothing but heavy-handed posturing, much like their dealings with the Qataris.

In short, how we handle this winter depends entirely on whether Putin and Russia decide to be merciful. Just my luck.

Nancy Gomez26 said:That all sounds fine, but what use are pistons in an electric vehicle? 😁
I am not worried about the Germans. They are panicking right now because they are used to organizing everything years in advance—which is how serious nations actually operate—but now the variables are shifting on so many fronts that precise forecasting is impossible. When you can't predict the future, you can't prepare for it, and that is where the panic sets in.
Sure, the Chinese could build a Mercedes, and it would certainly be cheaper—but nobody (at least not the people currently buying new Mercedes models) would actually buy it. Even if Mercedes opened a plant in China (they likely already have them there), a car coming off that specific line wouldn't sell in the European Union or the USA. If I am paying for a Mercedes here, I expect it to be 'made in Germany,' whether it was assembled on a Friday afternoon or a Monday morning. Since the market has gone global, sourcing materials won't be an issue, but the cost will rise while margins shrink. Those with enough money to afford a brand-new luxury car? They won't care either way.

I agree with you regarding Mercedes, but I think the main point is something else.
About 50 years ago, the whole West—especially the USA—was obsessed with Made in Japan cars. That same Japan and its entire auto industry basically buried the American auto industry, and look at us now—Toyota is the biggest vehicle manufacturer in the world.
Then, about 30 years ago, the world started loving Korean cars, and now those same Westerners are buying them by the millions. They aren't lagging behind their Western competitors one bit when it comes to quality, or especially when you look at the feature levels.
I've seen all sorts of nonsense being said here about China, which a lot of people on these forums seriously underestimate (not talking about you, though)—whether it's due to their own blindness, just being naive, or some kind of indoctrination. They view China as nothing more than a massive factory for screws, cheap electronics, junk, and other low-grade stuff. They think China is just like Russia, thinking all those trillions of dollars they earn are just being burned on weapons and buying social peace like Ruje.

urbanotter said:It feels like my crystal ball gave me a fair warning about what was coming in my later years, so I took some cash and put it into "hard currency" at the bank, just so I'd have a cushion to pay for my coffee and my tech gear when things got tough.

Though, if I'm being honest, I feel like I've lost about $10,000 in purchasing power with that "hard currency."
Luckily, I picked up some "gold bullion"; people say the price is trending upward.
My daughter used a bit of credit and some savings to buy a new apartment, arguing that, much like back in the old days, the safest bet is always bricks and mortar.
My son and I are also prepping, just hoping he can finish one more stint at work and pull in a few extra thousand dollars.

In a way, I'm starting to feel better about everything; it feels like the old ways are returning, and I've somehow become an even bigger fool than I was back in the old country.

It’s funny, really. I can't stand the West, yet here I am saving in their "sinful" currency. I claim to dislike the West, but my son is out there making his living over there... 🤔

I say I hate the West, but I’m out here buying Swiss investment gold.... 🤷

hollowdriver13 said:It’s funny, really. I can't stand the West, yet here I am saving in their "sinful" currency. I claim to dislike the West, but my son is out there making his living over there... 🤔

I say I hate the West, but I’m out here buying Swiss investment gold.... 🤷

Total hipster rebellion.

Nancy Gomez26 said:That all sounds fine, but what use are pistons in an electric vehicle? 😁
I am not worried about the Germans. They are panicking right now because they are used to organizing everything years in advance—which is how serious nations actually operate—but now the variables are shifting on so many fronts that precise forecasting is impossible. When you can't predict the future, you can't prepare for it, and that is where the panic sets in.
Sure, the Chinese could build a Mercedes, and it would certainly be cheaper—but nobody (at least not the people currently buying new Mercedes models) would actually buy it. Even if Mercedes opened a plant in China (they likely already have them there), a car coming off that specific line wouldn't sell in the European Union or the USA. If I am paying for a Mercedes here, I expect it to be 'made in Germany,' whether it was assembled on a Friday afternoon or a Monday morning. Since the market has gone global, sourcing materials won't be an issue, but the cost will rise while margins shrink. Those with enough money to afford a brand-new luxury car? They won't care either way.

You can't seriously think I don't realize electric cars don't have pistons; you're just grasping at descriptive metaphors to try and prove to me that every product starts from raw materials and
I drove a Mercedes for several years before my daughter "stole" it from me—it was an A 180.
Ten years ago, it was the perfect city car; there was enough room for four grown adults, it had a low floor since the battery was tucked under the passenger side, and the seats were high enough that you just slide right into them, much like the Grand Cherokee I drive now.

Regarding the Chinese auto industry, you should really look into ten of their brands and models that will be dominating the roads in Russia soon; some of those buyers who have the cash for a Mercedes will end up buying one regardless of the price tag.

That represents that 5% mentioned by the blogger Krule in his live stream, which is essentially like having one rotten apple in a basket—it eventually spoils the whole lot.

https://hr.expertevolux.com/top-samy...lej-iz-kitaja/

Instead of worrying about what 95% of Russians will be driving, maybe you should focus more on what we'll be driving ourselves.
I've been hearing that the price of used cars in Germany has spiked significantly, and it seems like Germans are increasingly turning away from new models in favor of second-hand ones.

It seems the prevailing wisdom here is "I don't care if my neighbor's cow dies, as long as mine stays healthy."

As Mirjana Hrga wrote on her profile recently, the last true "macho men" were the ones from the 90s; those guys knew how to strip down and reassemble an AK-47, whereas today's crowd is carrying Vuitton bags and wearing feathers around their necks.

Either that, or I'll just make you laugh or cry.

Do yourself a favor and pick up a Mercedes as soon as you can, while they're still actually available on the market

Why avocado though? I heard there’s a shortage going on over in the States.