Sanctions on Russia

In Russia, a total potato land, they're actually short on the stuff they need to supply their little alternative version of McDonald's...

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...hortage-2022-7

Look, Russia isn't exactly some potato-only nation.
Up until 2014, they were mostly importing the stuff—but once those sanctions hit, they actually stepped up their own production game.
Besides, potatoes originally hail from Central and South America; I think they didn't even make it over to Europe until the 17th century.

Richard Wilson4 said:In Russia, a total potato land, they're actually short on the stuff they need to supply their little alternative version of McDonald's...

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...hortage-2022-7

So, we went from lacking spuds to lacking "absolutely essential" varieties. 🤣

rowdyraven112 said:Most prices are from March. Exchange rate was roughly $1=62 rubles. This link is better than the gambler's, but still wouldn't recommend it because:
1. I have no clue what the actual dollar-to-ruble rate is in Russian banks right now.
2. No idea if prices changed given the inflation over there.
3. The Dollar strengthened against the Euro and the local currency, so you'll get wrong numbers if you use today's exchange rate—it's actually higher, to be more precise.
4. Same goes for the ruble; maybe you get more rubles per $1 now.

I don't really have the time or particularly the desire to sit here and debunk all the misconceptions people in Europe seem to hold, but

when you look at the ruble exchange rate

I'll just drop one link showing the price of diesel
and you can draw your own conclusions. When Sergej fills up the tank in his Lada, he'll still have enough change left over for a "premium" Heineken.
But when Joža fills up his Corvette, he won't even have enough left for a cheap Heineken.

So, despite all the sophisticated wisdom and complex spreadsheets, Sergej can quench his thirst with a Heineken—which somehow always manages to turn up in a Russian pub—while Joža stays thirsty, even though Heineken is available in every single bar and is actually cheaper there than it is in Russia.

urbanotter said:I don't really have the time or particularly the desire to sit here and debunk all the misconceptions people in Europe seem to hold, but

when you look at the ruble exchange rate

I'll just drop one link showing the price of diesel
and you can draw your own conclusions. When Sergej fills up the tank in his Lada, he'll still have enough change left over for a "premium" Heineken.
But when Joža fills up his Corvette, he won't even have enough left for a cheap Heineken.

So, despite all the sophisticated wisdom and complex spreadsheets, Sergej can quench his thirst with a Heineken—which somehow always manages to turn up in a Russian pub—while Joža stays thirsty, even though Heineken is available in every single bar and is actually cheaper there than it is in Russia.

Nice move—you actually linked an article that says the exact opposite:

A strong ruble doesn't mean the Russian economy is handling Western sanctions well. Since the war in Ukraine kicked off, thousands of international companies have pulled out of Russia, leaving behind a massive number of unemployed Russians. Foreign investment took a huge hit, and poverty levels nearly doubled in just the first five weeks of the war, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

'The Russian ruble is no longer an indicator of economic health. Even the U.S. Census Bureau—notorious for tweaking numbers to back the White House—admits that the number of Russians living in poverty jumped from 12 million to 21 million in the first quarter of 2022,' noted Hess.

Anyone arguing that a strong currency equals a healthy economy is clearly missing the point. Following that logic, you could say the economy in Canada is incredibly robust and stable since their currency always stays at about 1:2 against the euro.

urbanotter said:I don't really have the time or particularly the desire to sit here and debunk all the misconceptions people in Europe seem to hold, but

when you look at the ruble exchange rate

I'll just drop one link showing the price of diesel
and you can draw your own conclusions. When Sergej fills up the tank in his Lada, he'll still have enough change left over for a "premium" Heineken.
But when Joža fills up his Corvette, he won't even have enough left for a cheap Heineken.

So, despite all the sophisticated wisdom and complex spreadsheets, Sergej can quench his thirst with a Heineken—which somehow always manages to turn up in a Russian pub—while Joža stays thirsty, even though Heineken is available in every single bar and is actually cheaper there than it is in Russia.

😁

So, what’s actually written in that article, genius? Whose arguments are you even trying to back up here? 🤦

At the end of the day, hey, feel free to fly over to Russia and try exchanging your rubles for dollars at the official rate. If you actually pull that off—fine, I'll admit you're 100% right about everything. Sound good?

God... this whole topic and your take on it is just a straight-up comedy routine...

(and you're out here talking about "delusions in Europe" 😂 )

Harold Nelson6 said:Nice move—you actually linked an article that says the exact opposite:

A strong ruble doesn't mean the Russian economy is handling Western sanctions well. Since the war in Ukraine kicked off, thousands of international companies have pulled out of Russia, leaving behind a massive number of unemployed Russians. Foreign investment took a huge hit, and poverty levels nearly doubled in just the first five weeks of the war, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

'The Russian ruble is no longer an indicator of economic health. Even the U.S. Census Bureau—notorious for tweaking numbers to back the White House—admits that the number of Russians living in poverty jumped from 12 million to 21 million in the first quarter of 2022,' noted Hess.

Anyone arguing that a strong currency equals a healthy economy is clearly missing the point. Following that logic, you could say the economy in Canada is incredibly robust and stable since their currency always stays at about 1:2 against the euro.

Around here, our dollar has always maintained a steady relationship with the euro.

But the situation with the ruble is fundamentally different; it's traded on the open market where the exchange rate fluctuates based on supply and demand rather than being propped up by Federal Reserve interventions using foreign reserves.

I provided the link specifically so you could see what the actual exchange rate looks like, which is 52.3 rubles per dollar.

As for the rest of the demagoguery—like the stuff being sold in this PDF—I haven't even had the time to sit down and read through it, so feel free to ignore it or just categorize it as political propaganda.

I’m honestly a little nervous about us switching over to the euro. People were originally talking about a rate of $2.50 per 1€, but now all the politicians are claiming the conversion will just happen at "whatever the prevailing market rate happens to be" by January 1st, 2023.

Gas imports: Then vs. Now (weekly average over the last 4 weeks)

2022
LNG 2,732 (38.4%)
Norway 2,711 (38.1%)
Russia 1,009 (14.2%)
Algeria 660 (9.3%)
__________________________
Total: 7,112

2021
Russia 3,057 (41.2%)
Norway 2,018 (27.2%)
LNG 1,654 (22.2%)
Algeria 701 (9.4%)
__________________________
Total: 7,430

Currently, Europe has sourced 6,103 out of the 7,430 units imported during this same period last year from sources other than Russia. This means Europe's reliance on Russia has dropped from 40% down to just 17%.

Meanwhile, Russian gas exports to Europe have plummeted from 3 billion to 1 billion...

Counting oil doesn't make sense here. Europe isn't dependent on Russia for oil at all. By the end of the year, 98% of oil will be imported from other sources.

By next year, gas dependency on Russia will drop to just 10%. That doesn't grant them any real leverage for blackmailing us. Even if they cut everything off entirely, we’d just pivot to other energy sources to cover that 10% gap... It's manageable. Households might see slightly higher electric bills or a bit less heat, but that's about it.

The Germans claim they can reach full energy independence by 2024, which is only 17 months away.

In short, whatever Putin tries to pull this winter won't matter much. His time is running out...

dustyowl29 said:I’m honestly a little nervous about us switching over to the euro. People were originally talking about a rate of $2.50 per 1€, but now all the politicians are claiming the conversion will just happen at "whatever the prevailing market rate happens to be" by January 1st, 2023.

There isn't really anything to worry about here. The official rate of 7.53 was confirmed today, so I'm not sure what the politicians are even talking about. Maybe Kolakušić is the only one.

Jack Hill2 said:Gas imports: Then vs. Now (weekly average over the last 4 weeks)

2022
LNG 2,732 (38.4%)
Norway 2,711 (38.1%)
Russia 1,009 (14.2%)
Algeria 660 (9.3%)
__________________________
Total: 7,112

2021
Russia 3,057 (41.2%)
Norway 2,018 (27.2%)
LNG 1,654 (22.2%)
Algeria 701 (9.4%)
__________________________
Total: 7,430

Currently, Europe has sourced 6,103 out of the 7,430 units imported during this same period last year from sources other than Russia. This means Europe's reliance on Russia has dropped from 40% down to just 17%.

Meanwhile, Russian gas exports to Europe have plummeted from 3 billion to 1 billion...

Counting oil doesn't make sense here. Europe isn't dependent on Russia for oil at all. By the end of the year, 98% of oil will be imported from other sources.

You also have to keep in mind that the EU produces about 20% of its own needs
and that percentage is going up given how prices look right now.
Last year, America produced 30% of its own gas needs.
With new gas fields opening up in the Midwest, that should climb to 40% this year.

Plus, ExxonMobil is set to open a few more wells in the Adriatic Sea, so we're looking at 50% domestic gas production by next year.
http://www.energetika-net.com/vijest...-jadranu-34994

gentlestag15 said:You also have to keep in mind that the EU produces about 20% of its own needs
and that percentage is going up given how prices look right now.
Last year, America produced 30% of its own gas needs.
With new gas fields opening up in the Midwest, that should climb to 40% this year.

Plus, ExxonMobil is set to open a few more wells in the Adriatic Sea, so we're looking at 50% domestic gas production by next year.
http://www.energetika-net.com/vijest...-jadranu-34994

That makes the Russian influence even weaker. They only account for 14% of the supply right now. If they drop to 7-8% over the next year, Putin won't be able to bark for a long time...

Jack Hill2 said:That makes the Russian influence even weaker. They only account for 14% of the supply right now. If they drop to 7-8% over the next year, Putin won't be able to bark for a long time...

You're only looking at imports and totally ignoring domestic production within the European Union.
The EU actually has plenty of room to ramp up its own gas production, mostly because they basically let their local industry rot while relying on cheap imports.
There’s a clear, steady decline happening here, and half the truth is that a huge chunk of that was produced by VB, which isn't even part of the European Union anymore.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...uropean-union/

urbanotter said:Around here, our dollar has always maintained a steady relationship with the euro.

But the situation with the ruble is fundamentally different; it's traded on the open market where the exchange rate fluctuates based on supply and demand rather than being propped up by Federal Reserve interventions using foreign reserves.

I provided the link specifically so you could see what the actual exchange rate looks like, which is 52.3 rubles per dollar.

As for the rest of the demagoguery—like the stuff being sold in this PDF—I haven't even had the time to sit down and read through it, so feel free to ignore it or just categorize it as political propaganda.

The ruble isn't "on the market." Are you lying to yourself or just to us?
Russia has banned foreigners from selling stocks, capped how many rubles citizens can swap for dollars, interest rates are north of 10%, and exporters are forced to hand over 80% of their hard currency to the state.
These brutal restrictions have completely choked any chance of converting rubles to dollars. If they actually let the market breathe and lifted those bans, the ruble would tank instantly.
If you’re holding a million dollars in Russia, sure, you can swap them for rubles at the official rate right now. But if you’ve got a million rubles? Nobody is giving you a single dollar.

Yeah, sure—you can only pay with rubles if you're shopping exclusively in Russia.
China pays for their oil using yuan.

dustyowl29 said:Yeah, sure—you can only pay with rubles if you're shopping exclusively in Russia.
China pays for their oil using yuan.

Look, you're totally missing the point. The actual issue here is that some guy in Moscow—he LITERALLY cannot just walk into a local bank or a currency exchange and swap his rubles for dollars at the official rate. He can't. It's impossible.

Whether people are using rubles to buy stuff or not is completely irrelevant to the core problem.

It’s like Germans having to scramble onto some shady black market just to grab a massive pile of rubles at a ridiculous 150-to-1 exchange rate against the euro, only to then turn around and pay for gas using whatever official Russian rate they decide to set that day.

Or, you know, we could just happily pay for all the gas in rubles, since apparently, we can just pick them up from your citizens or whoever else happens to be selling them on the street.

Brenda Murphy3 said:Look, you're totally missing the point. The actual issue here is that some guy in Moscow—he LITERALLY cannot just walk into a local bank or a currency exchange and swap his rubles for dollars at the official rate. He can't. It's impossible.

Whether people are using rubles to buy stuff or not is completely irrelevant to the core problem.

Can I just walk into a bank here in the States with a handful of rubles and expect to get euros for them?
Or would a German in Germany be able to do that?

gentlestag15 said:Can I just walk into a bank here in the States with a handful of rubles and expect to get euros for them?
Or would a German in Germany be able to do that?

Honestly, I have no clue.

Just call up some random bank and ask. If they even allow it—I think the rate is around 120 rubles per Euro, not that total nonsense the Russians officially claim. I'm pretty sure you could pull it off.