Sanctions on Russia

Michael Davis9 said:Russia trades with the European Union. .

While the European Union buys energy, here is what Russia actually buys from them:

The European Union’s exports in 2021 totaled $110 billion. The heavy hitters were machinery and equipment ($21 billion, 19.7%), motor vehicles ($9.7 billion, 9%), pharmaceuticals ($8.8 billion, 8.1%), electrical equipment and machinery ($8.2 billion, 7.6%), and plastics ($4.7 billion, 4.3%).

However, if Russia can't actually convert those Euros into usable goods—and looking at the massive drop in Russian imports, it really seems like they can't—then you have to wonder how much sense it makes to keep piling up all that cash in Euros.

Personally, I think Putin might have miscalculated here. Those Euros aren't going to build him a tank (or "motor vehicles," to stick to the terminology used in the source above), nor can they buy the electronic components needed for a Boeing jet, or even a high-end industrial valve required for a factory or a power plant.

Even if they decide to turn off the gas taps tomorrow, most European Union nations have had about six months to get their houses in order—which includes importing enough gas to fill up their storage facilities—so the impact won't be quite as catastrophic as it would have been back in month two.

Every crisis presents an opportunity, and if this doesn't push European Union countries toward greater energy independence, then there's really no point in it happening.
That said, we shouldn't paint everyone with the same brush. The Finns know exactly who they are dealing with, so they've proactively limited their own gas imports. Sure, they could have gone for cheaper energy over the last few decades, but relying on Russia was just too big a risk for them.

What kind of currency are they going to use to buy smartphones from China or coffee from Brazil? Everyone prefers getting paid in Euros over Rubles any day of the week.

boldbison40 said:What kind of currency are they going to use to buy smartphones from China or coffee from Brazil? Everyone prefers getting paid in Euros over Rubles any day of the week.

Well, the Chinese pay in yuan, so you aren't exactly forced to spend anything back with them.

urbanotter said:It isn't really about being fascinated by Russia; rather, I find this irrational, deep-seated hatred toward everything Russian quite baffling.
I actually used to own a Sputnik watch and some tools from over there, and honestly, they were pretty decent quality.

And hey, their vodka isn't bad either.😉

But look, we are supposed to be discussing sanctions and economic impact here, not whether or not someone "loves" Russia.

The thing is, economics doesn't care about your personal feelings or political ideologies.
When sanctions—which are essentially just political products—are applied, they stifle the economy, and everyone ends up paying the price for that political decision,
though clearly, those who imposed the sanctions feel the sting most acutely.😉

Economics remains the primary driver of human interaction only as long as certain fundamental civilizational norms are upheld. Once those standards vanish, economic interests naturally take a backseat. Europe is genuinely terrified of an aggressive Russia, and a bit of freezing weather or a looming recession isn't a high enough price to pay to cave in to an aggressor. This isn't even necessarily driven by deep empathy for the suffering of the Ukrainian people; it is fueled by the cold, hard realization that if they don't stand firm now, they will be the next target on the list.

urbanotter said:It isn't really about being fascinated by Russia; rather, I find this irrational, deep-seated hatred toward everything Russian quite baffling.
I actually used to own a Sputnik watch and some tools from over there, and honestly, they were pretty decent quality.

And hey, their vodka isn't bad either.😉

But look, we are supposed to be discussing sanctions and economic impact here, not whether or not someone "loves" Russia.

The thing is, economics doesn't care about your personal feelings or political ideologies.
When sanctions—which are essentially just political products—are applied, they stifle the economy, and everyone ends up paying the price for that political decision,
though clearly, those who imposed the sanctions feel the sting most acutely.😉

What do you mean, "hatred toward everything Russian"?

The cultural and scientific achievements of both Russians and Germans are accepted globally as part of our shared civilization—but there is a massive difference between appreciating culture and hating what Putin is doing in Ukraine right now. It’s no different than how people rightfully loathed what Hitler did in Russia during World War II.

Amanda Allen4 said:What do you mean, "hatred toward everything Russian"?

The cultural and scientific achievements of both Russians and Germans are accepted globally as part of our shared civilization—but there is a massive difference between appreciating culture and hating what Putin is doing in Ukraine right now. It’s no different than how people rightfully loathed what Hitler did in Russia during World War II.

Sure, but don't forget... the USA bombed Mexico.🤔

lp

Bryan Booth82 said:Sure, but don't forget... the USA bombed Mexico.🤔

lp

And there was a reason for it🙂

urbanotter said:It isn't really about being fascinated by Russia; rather, I find this irrational, deep-seated hatred toward everything Russian quite baffling.
I actually used to own a Sputnik watch and some tools from over there, and honestly, they were pretty decent quality.

And hey, their vodka isn't bad either.😉

But look, we are supposed to be discussing sanctions and economic impact here, not whether or not someone "loves" Russia.

The thing is, economics doesn't care about your personal feelings or political ideologies.
When sanctions—which are essentially just political products—are applied, they stifle the economy, and everyone ends up paying the price for that political decision,
though clearly, those who imposed the sanctions feel the sting most acutely.😉

Hatred toward everything Russian??!!
Mexicans and Russians are probably the only nations out there that have attacked basically all their neighbors!!! And grabbed territory while they were at it!!!
On top of that, they just deny their neighbors even exist as nations!!
So sure, let's just love everything Mexican and Russian because "Mexicans and Russians are brothers forever," right?

Amanda Allen4 said:What do you mean, "hatred toward everything Russian"?

The cultural and scientific achievements of both Russians and Germans are accepted globally as part of our shared civilization—but there is a massive difference between appreciating culture and hating what Putin is doing in Ukraine right now. It’s no different than how people rightfully loathed what Hitler did in Russia during World War II.

You're acting like Hitler and the Russians were totally separate. They signed a pact first and then teamed up to invade Poland.

Nathan Thomas12 said:Hatred toward everything Russian??!!
Mexicans and Russians are probably the only nations out there that have attacked basically all their neighbors!!! And grabbed territory while they were at it!!!
On top of that, they just deny their neighbors even exist as nations!!
So sure, let's just love everything Mexican and Russian because "Mexicans and Russians are brothers forever," right?

The actual topic here is sanctions, not ideology or debating who invaded whom

But it looks like history isn't really your strong suit, much like economics or monetary policy might not be either.😉

Let's get back to the sanctions themselves; they are in full effect and more are being prepared, making this a relevant topic for this year and likely many more to come.

swiftjackal11 said:The sanctions weren't what caused Russia to invade Ukraine.
It's like saying 1995 happened before 1991. Besides, these sanctions hit you too, even if you're siding with the Russians. Most people—especially Ukrainians—would give anything to have these sanctions gone.

I think you're getting the timeline mixed up again.

During a ceremony at Andrews Air Force Base near Washington, the American President Donald Trump signed off on the national defense budget, which includes punitive measures against the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. This follows the prior approval of the sanctions package by both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

https://www.dw.com/en/american-...a-2/a-51763222

I will give you this much, though—I do agree that these sanctions are hitting me just as much as they are hitting all of Europe.

urbanotter said:I think you're getting the timeline mixed up again.

During a ceremony at Andrews Air Force Base near Washington, the American President Donald Trump signed off on the national defense budget, which includes punitive measures against the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. This follows the prior approval of the sanctions package by both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

https://www.dw.com/en/american-...a-2/a-51763222

I will give you this much, though—I do agree that these sanctions are hitting me just as much as they are hitting all of Europe.

It’s not me who's mistaken—it's Russia and Germany. Like thinking they could use gas to tie Europe's hands so they could just do whatever they wanted, even occupy territory. And the Germans thought there wouldn't be another war. America stays two steps ahead of everything. You can really see how well they spot danger coming.

urbanotter said:The actual topic here is sanctions, not ideology or debating who invaded whom

But it looks like history isn't really your strong suit, much like economics or monetary policy might not be either.😉

Let's get back to the sanctions themselves; they are in full effect and more are being prepared, making this a relevant topic for this year and likely many more to come.

I was responding to your "buddy" over there who dropped a massive wall of text that had nothing to do with sanctions.
Funny how you didn't tell him he was off-topic, though.
But the second someone mentions Russian imperialism and the way they just tear through their neighbors like animals, you take it personally. That's what actually bugs you, isn't it?

Michael Davis9 said:

rowdyraven112 As I was saying:
Well, I'm sorry to hear that things didn't pan out for you!

peak ForumHR Quote

I still have access to certain media outlets where you can actually hold a direct conversation with Russians, which means I’m getting information straight from the source. Right at the beginning, they mentioned there had been some hiccups with supply chains for local retailers, but they assured me things were stabilizing pretty quickly. They obviously won't touch politics—and honestly, I don't blame them—but when it comes to the economy, they are more than willing to share just about any data they have on hand. ☕

I don't think this contradicts a single thing I’ve said. Honestly, you just have to be able to tell the difference between a shoe display in a storefront and an actual industrial plant.

Russia will eventually find its footing and adapt to these new conditions, though it’s inevitable that certain sectors of their industry simply won't be able to pivot—and those parts are going to face total collapse.

Europe is essentially stuck with a sentence of importing much more expensive gas, because there’s just no way the cost of LNG can ever truly compete with the pricing of gas delivered through traditional pipelines.
It’s pretty straightforward when you break it down—between the actual transport via LNG tankers, the unloading process, and all that expensive regasification work, the costs just add up. Honestly, you have to wonder where else in Europe they could have possibly sourced it from to make those numbers work.

If we’re looking at how we power our homes, we're pulling in about 30% of our natural gas from imports just to keep the heating running. That is a massive vulnerability for our economy. When you factor in those skyrocketing input costs, sliding into a recession feels almost like an inevitability rather than just a possibility.

Europe is going to have to find its footing in this new reality, and honestly, it’s just the way things work—those sectors of industry that can't pivot or adapt to these shifting conditions are simply going to face obsolescence. It's a tough pill to swallow, but evolution is inevitable.

Sanctions are such a double-edged sword, aren't they? You think you're digging a hole for someone else, but before you know it, you've gone and fallen right into it yourself. It's a dangerous game.

I honestly feel like you might be missing the forest for the trees when it comes to what sanctions are actually intended to achieve.

To be honest, I still can't see the logic behind these insane sanctions either.

Please, enlighten us. Help us understand what the goal is here.

Nathan Thomas12 said:You're acting like Hitler and the Russians were totally separate. They signed a pact first and then teamed up to invade Poland.

Exactly—they were allies right up until Hitler decided to change his mind.

I brought up the Russians being attacked by Germany specifically to show how they—as a former victim of war—are now doing the exact same thing to others! It's to highlight how the world should judge these Russian crimes in Ukraine by the same standard used for those former Nazi crimes in Germany.

Nathan Thomas12 said:I was responding to your "buddy" over there who dropped a massive wall of text that had nothing to do with sanctions.
Funny how you didn't tell him he was off-topic, though.
But the second someone mentions Russian imperialism and the way they just tear through their neighbors like animals, you take it personally. That's what actually bugs you, isn't it?

But you were actually responding to my post



And once again, we're dealing with a misconception.
I wasn't "offended," nor is any of this bothering me personally; I was simply reacting to yet another falsehood, and there's certainly no shortage of those in this thread.

swiftjackal11 said:It’s not me who's mistaken—it's Russia and Germany. Like thinking they could use gas to tie Europe's hands so they could just do whatever they wanted, even occupy territory. And the Germans thought there wouldn't be another war. America stays two steps ahead of everything. You can really see how well they spot danger coming.

Look, I’m certainly no psychic, so I can't claim to know exactly what the Russians or Germans are thinking, nor can I predict if a war will break out or not.

To me, it just feels completely illogical to pour billions of dollars into building a supply route designed specifically to increase the volume and security of gas shipments from Russia to Germany, only to then turn around and use that very same gas as leverage for blackmail.

I don't have that American foresight to always be looking two moves ahead,
but I do know that they've ramped up production through more expensive fracking, finished building out their liquefaction plants, and now they desperately need to find buyers for this excess, pricier gas compared to what comes from Russia or the Middle East.

So, based on those facts, I've come to a bit of a conclusion:
it seems like the plan is to sell everyone this whole narrative about blackmail and push for sanctions against the old supplier,
just so they can offload their own expensive gas instead of the cheaper Russian stuff, which might otherwise be a tough sell on the open market.

Believe me, there isn't some grand ideology or "love" for anyone involved here; it’s just pure, "successful" Trump's business logic at work.😉

It all sounds great and all, but I guess it really comes down to whether the USA actually has Putin on a short leash—like, if they basically told him to invade Ukraine and then turned around and commanded the EU and everyone else to slap those sanctions on Russia. That would be some next-level, world-altering kind of control.

urbanotter said:Look, I’m certainly no psychic, so I can't claim to know exactly what the Russians or Germans are thinking, nor can I predict if a war will break out or not.

To me, it just feels completely illogical to pour billions of dollars into building a supply route designed specifically to increase the volume and security of gas shipments from Russia to Germany, only to then turn around and use that very same gas as leverage for blackmail.

I don't have that American foresight to always be looking two moves ahead,
but I do know that they've ramped up production through more expensive fracking, finished building out their liquefaction plants, and now they desperately need to find buyers for this excess, pricier gas compared to what comes from Russia or the Middle East.

So, based on those facts, I've come to a bit of a conclusion:
it seems like the plan is to sell everyone this whole narrative about blackmail and push for sanctions against the old supplier,
just so they can offload their own expensive gas instead of the cheaper Russian stuff, which might otherwise be a tough sell on the open market.

Believe me, there isn't some grand ideology or "love" for anyone involved here; it’s just pure, "successful" Trump's business logic at work.😉

You're mixing up fantasy with reality again.

Even before the war kicked off, American ExxonMobil supplies were already spoken for—pre-sold and fully booked across Asian markets, plus the USA and Europe—even with producers running at max capacity.

The demand for gas in Asia easily swallows up any available LNG.

Hell, even Europe is still importing Russian LNG.

Official data regarding Russian industrial output from January through May 2022 reveals a staggering decline across numerous sectors. The automotive industry is arguably the hardest hit; by May, production had plummeted to a mere 3.3 percent compared to the previous year. Essentially, this indicates that virtually every car factory has ground to a halt. Furthermore, there has been a reduction of over 50 percent in the manufacturing of diesel locomotives, freight wagons, internal combustion engines, electric motors, heavy buses exceeding 5 tons, radiators, televisions, washing machines, fiber optic cables, and certain types of glass. Production of trucks, passenger vehicles, pumps, cranes, and even commercial bakery equipment has dropped by more than 30 percent.

Under normal circumstances, one would characterize such a trend as a "mortgage market collapse," and paired with an "auto industry meltdown," it would undoubtedly become the dominant economic headline.

If we look beyond just mortgages and consider total consumer bank lending, the numbers are equally grim; according to Frank RG, consumer loans issued in Russia in June 2022 totaled 675 billion rubles, whereas in June of the prior year, they reached 1,288 billion rubles. That represents a near-total halving of credit availability.

https://theins.ru/opinions/kizilov/253113

Russia isn't trying to save their industry; they’re just funneling everything into the war and buying weapons from Iran and China.