Sanctions on Russia

Michael Ortiz68 said:What actually happened to Gojko Drljača? 😲

Did his student contract expire? Or maybe it was canceled due to force majeure? 🤔

dustyowl29 said:All we’re missing now is Apple..

Well, Apple actually suspended sales in Russia back on March 1st.

While energy costs across Europe continue their dizzying climb, Russia is burning through massive quantities of natural gas, according to an analysis by ABC News.

Reports indicate that a facility located near the border with Finland is flaring gas valued at an estimated $10 million every single day.
Experts suggest this gas would have previously been exported to Germany.
The German ambassador to the United Kingdom told ABC News that Russia is simply burning the gas because they "couldn't sell it anywhere else."

Scientists are expressing deep concern over the massive amounts of carbon dioxide and soot being released, which threatens to accelerate the melting of Arctic ice.
Analysis from Wood Mackenzie shows that roughly 4.34 million cubic meters of gas are being flared daily.
This is originating from a new LNG plant in Port Arthur, located northwest of Saint Petersburg.

The first signs that something was amiss came from citizens in Finland who noticed a massive flame on the horizon near the border earlier this summer.
Port Arthur sits near a compressor station at the start of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which carries gas under the sea to Germany.
Supplies through the pipeline have been restricted since mid-July, with the Russians blaming technical malfunctions for the shortage, while Germany maintains it was a purely political move following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

However, since June, researchers have observed a significant spike in heat radiating from the site—a byproduct of the gas flaring process.

...
While gas flaring is standard practice at processing plants—usually handled for technical or safety reasons—the sheer scale of this combustion has left experts baffled.

"I have never seen an LNG plant swell like this," said Dr. Jessica McCarty, a satellite data expert from the University of Miami in Ohio.
"Starting around June, we saw this enormous spike, and it just hasn't subsided. It has remained unnaturally high."
Miguel Berger, the German ambassador to the United Kingdom, told ABC News that European efforts to reduce reliance on Russian gas "are having a profound impact on the Russian economy."

"They simply don't have anywhere else to sell their gas, so they are forced to burn it," he suggested.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-62652133

TOKYO -- Europe’s anxieties regarding gas shortages heading into winter might just be getting bypassed, thanks to an unexpected white knight: China.

The world’s largest buyer of liquefied natural gas is offloading some of its surplus cargoes because domestic energy demand has cratered. This has provided the spot market with a massive influx of supply that Europe has been quick to snap up, even with the higher price tags.

As a consequence, European LNG imports have surged by 60% year-over-year during the first half of this year, according to data from Bloomberg. The 53 million tons purchased by the bloc actually outpaces the imports of both China and Japan, pushing European gas storage levels up to 77%.

If this current trajectory holds, Europe will likely hit its target of filling 80% of its gas storage capacity by November.

However, while China's economic slowdown has offered Europe some much-needed breathing room, it comes with a significant catch. As soon as economic activity in that communist nation picks back up, the situation could flip overnight. It also leaves Europe increasingly reliant on Beijing for its energy needs, which runs directly counter to the geopolitical push by the USA and its allies to defend the liberal international order.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...th-LNG-resales

Everyone is fleeing Russia, yet according to the latest projections, their GDP is only dipping by 2%.

gentleviper62 said:Everyone is fleeing Russia, yet according to the latest projections, their GDP is only dipping by 2%.

Yeah, right.

Michael Ortiz68 said:What actually happened to Gojko Drljača? 😲

If you look at the old Goebbels playbook that Russian propaganda relies on, they’re evolving. They used to throw a hundred lies and a half-truth at the wall to see what stuck, but now they've refined the craft. It's much more insidious: just one lie, one half-truth, and one undeniable truth that everyone already knows. It's cleaner, it's sharper, and frankly, it's far more dangerous.
Best regards,

gentleviper62 said:Everyone is fleeing Russia, yet according to the latest projections, their GDP is only dipping by 2%.

Which "latest estimates" are we talking about here?

Michael Ortiz68 said:Which "latest estimates" are we talking about here?

Russian:

12.36

The Russian government just dialed back its forecast for the 2022 economic slump.

The Russian economy is looking at a contraction of just over two percent this year—which is actually way milder than everyone was bracing for—and inflation should be staying relatively chill too, according to Vice Prime Minister Andrej Belousov.

While the Russian economy has definitely taken some hits from all those massive sanctions Western nations slapped on them following the invasion of Ukraine, it turns out the fallout isn't quite as catastrophic as the early doomsday scenarios suggested, per Reuters.

On Monday, Belousov mentioned that Russian GDP will drop by "a little more than two percent" this year, and they’re aiming for no more than a one percent dip in 2023.

I mean, the Russians have been pretty consistent with their story so far, so why wouldn't we just take them at their word instead of worrying about all those fancy independent analyses? It's all just a bunch of nonsense anyway, haha! ☕

Gregory Ramos3 said:Russian:

12.36

The Russian government just dialed back its forecast for the 2022 economic slump.

The Russian economy is looking at a contraction of just over two percent this year—which is actually way milder than everyone was bracing for—and inflation should be staying relatively chill too, according to Vice Prime Minister Andrej Belousov.

While the Russian economy has definitely taken some hits from all those massive sanctions Western nations slapped on them following the invasion of Ukraine, it turns out the fallout isn't quite as catastrophic as the early doomsday scenarios suggested, per Reuters.

On Monday, Belousov mentioned that Russian GDP will drop by "a little more than two percent" this year, and they’re aiming for no more than a one percent dip in 2023.

I mean, the Russians have been pretty consistent with their story so far, so why wouldn't we just take them at their word instead of worrying about all those fancy independent analyses? It's all just a bunch of nonsense anyway, haha! ☕

Huehue

boldotter2 said:Did his student contract expire? Or maybe it was canceled due to force majeure? 🤔

Well, Apple actually suspended sales in Russia back on March 1st.

Honestly, they should just cut off support entirely—let's see how everyone likes having a drawer full of useless bricks.

dustyowl29 said:Honestly, they should just cut off support entirely—let's see how everyone likes having a drawer full of useless bricks.

It’s a moot point if Russia already controls the actual physical servers used for updates—plus, people might just find a way to jailbreak them anyway. But would Apple really tank their reputation over this? Think about how many governments might slap them with software restrictions or oversight because of a move like that—especially since China is such a massive market for them.

At least you didn't suggest car companies should use over-the-air updates to remotely disable the brakes on Russian drivers.

Europe is filling up its gas storage ahead of schedule!!! Meanwhile, the Kremlin keeps trying to convince us we’re all gonna freeze or end up heating our houses with firewood!!!
How does that even work? 🤦

https://uploadwikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0a/Monthly_gas_supply_balance_in_the_European_Union%2 C_2014-2021.png

If you take a quick look at this Wikipedia chart, it’s pretty obvious what's happening. It looks like European storage facilities might actually get filled up earlier this summer thanks to LNG—which is already being produced elsewhere. We're also seeing gas coming through non-Russian pipelines, basically just moving stuff from one storage spot to another. Basically, those dark blue and light green sections on the graph are climbing much earlier than they usually do.
The big question now is whether that dark blue and light green can keep growing enough to last through the winter, and more importantly, at what price? We're looking at lower gas consumption targets too, since everyone is pivoting toward more heating oil and coal.

Honestly, you can already see the pattern with ExxonMobil. It doesn't look like they've been ordered to cut off the supply entirely; it’s more like they're trying to deliver as little as possible while still squeezing out the same profit. Eventually, they'll probably crank the valves back open just to tank prices and screw over the competition in the LNG business. It’s a classic move—the tighter they squeeze the valves now, the faster they build up their rivals.
But hey, war is war. With people as reckless as Vladimir Putin, anything is on the table.

rustywalker82 said:https://uploadwikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0a/Monthly_gas_supply_balance_in_the_European_Union%2 C_2014-2021.png

If you take a quick look at this Wikipedia chart, it’s pretty obvious what's happening. It looks like European storage facilities might actually get filled up earlier this summer thanks to LNG—which is already being produced elsewhere. We're also seeing gas coming through non-Russian pipelines, basically just moving stuff from one storage spot to another. Basically, those dark blue and light green sections on the graph are climbing much earlier than they usually do.
The big question now is whether that dark blue and light green can keep growing enough to last through the winter, and more importantly, at what price? We're looking at lower gas consumption targets too, since everyone is pivoting toward more heating oil and coal.

Honestly, you can already see the pattern with ExxonMobil. It doesn't look like they've been ordered to cut off the supply entirely; it’s more like they're trying to deliver as little as possible while still squeezing out the same profit. Eventually, they'll probably crank the valves back open just to tank prices and screw over the competition in the LNG business. It’s a classic move—the tighter they squeeze the valves now, the faster they build up their rivals.
But hey, war is war. With people as reckless as Vladimir Putin, anything is on the table.

Since Chevron has always been more expensive than pipeline gas, ExxonMobil would primarily be crashing the price for themselves and anyone capable of supplying the European Union via pipeline. Likely, Chevron prices would drop too, but pipeline gas would plummet much further. The European Union should have enough LNG terminals and contracted volumes to resell if there is sufficient pipeline gas available (or pay penalties to suppliers if they don't take delivery). Naturally, the price gap between Chevron and pipeline gas could partially offset those costs. In that scenario, one might actually have it both ways: a secure supply and cheaper gas. Long-term, the strategy must involve building pipelines to other suppliers: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, North Africa, or ramping up Mediterranean extraction... all while keeping the existing infrastructure ready for any potential future business with the Russians.

It’s not exactly a walk in the park trying to justify massive investments in new gas infrastructure when the rest of the world is supposed to be dumping insane amounts of cash into renewables. Check out this chart showing how global energy consumption has grown by source over the years:

https://www.researchgate.net/publica...onsumption.png

Anyone can sit there and draw pretty little graphs projecting how the world will decarbonize, but actually pulling it off is a whole different story. When a tiny dip in fossil fuel supply causes prices to spike several times over, things get messy fast. That volatility bleeds straight into the real economy, and suddenly you're being told to "invest" right when everyone is staring down huge deficits.
Energy sanctions are a bad move. What the world actually needs is cheaper fossil fuel energy first, which would then give governments the breathing room to actually push people toward sustainable options without breaking the bank.

Michael Ortiz68 said:What actually happened to Gojko Drljača? 😲

The news providing some much-needed optimism here is that European gas storage levels have already hit the targets we didn't expect to see for another two months. This puts that brutal Russian autocratb> in a massive bind: he either has to stop weaponizing energy supplies in this global conflict, or he has to double down on his insane crusade to tear down economic bridges with the West, effectively killing off any energy business with liberal democracies entirely. If he takes that second path, this frantic dictator loses all profit potential, though he can certainly continue to inflict damage on the European Union. At this point, the "logic" behind Putin's policy seems to have devolved into nothing more than global, half-baked sabotage.
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Even the Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States wouldn't be as incredibly blunt toward Putin as Gojko Drljača is being here. 👍

Maybe storage is filling up because industry isn't buying gas at these prices?
The US government is paying insane amounts right now just to top off reserves—it’s all about "security," apparently.

I'm just guessing here—there's no other logic to this market mess. Someone is buying at these rates. If it isn't the seasonal rush of public tenders for state institutions (like our local school districts, for example), then who?

How quickly those storage reserves get drained is going to depend heavily on how cold this winter gets and whether we get enough wind to keep those turbines spinning. If both of those factors turn out to be unpredictable, don't expect gas prices to drop anytime soon.

Honestly, we’re getting pretty lucky right now because a lot of the heavy industrial players have scaled back production, which has helped ease some of the pressure. But if you ask me, the whole thing smells fishy. It feels like someone either made a massive miscalculation, or we're looking at a massive scam on a European Union scale—kind of like the mess we've been seeing over at ExxonMobil. ☕

One day you're looking at a company needing maybe 7 or 8 billion, then the finance folks start talking about "just a few" billion, and before you know it, step by step, they could somehow balloon those deficits into the trillions by next winter. 🤣

The American energy provider NextEra Energy has requested a multi-billion dollar loan from the government. According to CEO Veli-Matti Reinikkala, the company is facing much higher collateral requirements when purchasing power due to skyrocketing electricity prices across European markets.

wiredseal7 said:Maybe storage is filling up because industry isn't buying gas at these prices?
The US government is paying insane amounts right now just to top off reserves—it’s all about "security," apparently.

I'm just guessing here—there's no other logic to this market mess. Someone is buying at these rates. If it isn't the seasonal rush of public tenders for state institutions (like our local school districts, for example), then who?

Half of our local industries that rely on gas could just pull the plug entirely if prices stay six times higher than they were last year. Nobody can afford that.

It would be like if gas prices at $4.00 suddenly jumped to $27 per gallon. No one would be driving, guaranteed...