Sanctions on Russia

casualtiger2 said:Switzerland has officially adopted all the sanctions agreed upon by the European Union.

Now Switzerland is freezing Russian accounts too.

I’m probably not smart enough to weigh in on Switzerland or the impact of CB Russia sanctions.🤔

In the short term, specifically this last part, it could be a real headache for Russia and offer some decent help in the current situation.

But it could also mess up relations down the road, calling Switzerland's neutrality into question and potentially hurting its core economic sectors. By making CBs feel less "untouchable," it might just push other countries to diversify away from Western financial markets, which would make any future sanctions much less effective against them.🤔

Just my two cents, though. Do we have any actual macroeconomists on here? 😁

wiredseal7 said:Fine, go ahead with the financial sanctions, but this move is just plain stupid.

Either way, Russia and the European Union are just screwing each other over here—meanwhile, third parties who didn't join the flight ban are going to make a killing.

Their airlines get to take the cheaper routes and undercut Europeans on pricing. The Chinese will lead the charge, and from what I've heard, neither the Japanese nor the Koreans have put similar embargos in place.

Then you've got the Sultan and Dubai, who are going to rake in the profits from all of this. Even Europeans will end up lining Iran's pockets for transit rights, which is sure to piss off the hawks, AIPAC, and Israel.

Rachel Allen55 said:At the end of the day, it’s a total mess. United Airlines basically said that flying to Japan—whether it's cargo or passenger service in South Asia—is absolutely killing their business. If they don't get flights back over Russia by May 3rd, United is pulling the plug. And who knows what happens to those massive planes they used for the Japan and China routes once they're grounded.

Right now, it's just a free ride for Japanese, Chinese, and other neutral airlines, since they can fly over Russia without any issues.

Germany is the only one that actually pushed the flight ban until May 3rd.

Japan, Korea, and Taiwan might eventually jump on board with the sanctions, but it really depends on how far they're willing to go...
Maybe there's actually a real solution for Europe: just ban every single aircraft coming out of Russian airspace entirely, regardless of where they're registered or where they started their journey.

steelraven74 said:Sanctions are mostly going to hit Russia and Europe; it’s not like Russia is Sierra Leone where nobody in Europe would bother trading with them anyway.
America is happy as can be, and the defense contractors are loving it.

Spot on... the whole play here is to drain Russia's bank account while simultaneously tanking the European standard of living, basically forcing them to stay dependent on the US.

Once that's settled, the US can shift its full attention toward China.

It's pretty obvious where their foreign policy is headed... which is exactly why they need a Democratic win again, both in Congress and in the presidential election.

The Executive Board of the International Olympic Committee (IOC) has just issued a recommendation to all international sports federations to ban any Russian or Belarusian athletes and officials from competing entirely due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The IOC is justifying this massive move by claiming they need to "protect the integrity of global sporting events and ensure the safety of the competitors."

FIFA might actually kick them out of the World Cup soon, and honestly, UEFA has already basically given them the boot. Even major universities across the States and Germany are starting to cut ties completely.
They're even pulling vodka off the shelves in grocery stores everywhere. The Czech Republic, Latvia, and Lithuania aren't issuing visas to Russians anymore, and now the Czech Republic is calling on the rest of the Schengen Area to step up and do the same. Meanwhile, over in the UK, they're looking at shutting down ports to any Russian ship and even pushing for a total suspension of their Interpol membership.

Vladimir Vladimirovich, you really are a gift from above, truly one in a billion.

Maersk is getting ready to pull out of the Russian market, which pretty much means we can expect the rest of the big players from Europe to follow suit very soon too.

Anthony Hill5 said:It is the central bank's assets held abroad that have been frozen, not those within Russia. This morning, the Central Bank burned through 7 billion dollars just to stabilize the Ruble. One has to wonder: how much longer can they sustain this before they completely exhaust the reserves they actually hold in Russia?

Honestly, today might be the worst day Russian finance has seen in decades.
Just heard it on RT...
🕺

What kind of sanctions are we even talking about if gas, oil, and all those other commodities are still flowing straight into Europe?
How on earth are they paying for it if everything is frozen? You can bet your life Russia isn't giving it away for free.

How on earth is Vladimir Vladimirovič going to squeeze the hard currency out of his inner circle, though? I mean, what do you all think? He’s absolutely desperate to fund this war and keep his regime from crumbling.
It’s one thing to pass a law forcing corporations to sell off 80% of their foreign reserves, but how do you catch the guys who are just stuffing Euros and Dollars under their mattresses? Maybe they'll try something shady like those pyramid schemes we saw back in the day in places like Mexico during the nineties? I honestly wonder if it'll even work if that 20% interest rate from the central bank
doesn't do the trick.

bluemason3 said:Nobody actually has a bunker filled with stacks of cash. My best guess is gold reserves, though even those don't necessarily have to be physically located in the country that technically owns them.

Generally speaking, most other reserves are parked "somewhere" in foreign nations (think government bonds, accounts in foreign banks, or even the holdings of other central banks), except that Russia has spent the last few years trying pretty hard to cut its ties to Western financial systems. Because of that, a good chunk of it is likely out of reach of any sanctions.

I suspect the West might have had control over maybe 50% of the Russian reserves until recently, though there are rumors they pulled some of that money out right before the invasion started.

It’s also a massive question mark how China will handle trade with Russia while these sanctions are in play. They seem to be playing both sides right now, and honestly, it looks like they aren't entirely sure what their own move should be.

Yeah, totally. Especially when it comes to tech and electronics.

China makes a ton of electronics on their own, but most of those chips and components are either patented by the West or actually made in the West—you know, that part of Asia that stays aligned with us.

I guess it would be pretty hard for them to risk smuggling stuff to Russia if they might lose their licenses.

Besides, I think Vietnam is just waiting for an excuse to swoop in and take over that production anyway.

bluemason3 said:I’m probably not smart enough to weigh in on Switzerland or the impact of CB Russia sanctions.🤔

In the short term, specifically this last part, it could be a real headache for Russia and offer some decent help in the current situation.

But it could also mess up relations down the road, calling Switzerland's neutrality into question and potentially hurting its core economic sectors. By making CBs feel less "untouchable," it might just push other countries to diversify away from Western financial markets, which would make any future sanctions much less effective against them.🤔

Just my two cents, though. Do we have any actual macroeconomists on here? 😁

Everything you're saying holds water, especially since they clearly spent a long time weighing their options before acting.
At the end of the day, most people are standing with Ukraine, so politicians basically had no choice but to respond.
Personally, I’m glad they finally stepped away from their usual pragmatism (which, granted, is usually pretty useful)
just to sacrifice a little cash and comfort.
There isn't really room for "neutrality" right now while kids are hunkering down in shelters.
The only real shot at lasting peace in Europe is finding a way to get that madman out of power.

Putin and Lukashenko bundled together. I suppose we have to ask ourselves—what is two lives actually worth when weighed against millions?

Following BP's lead, Shell is pulling out of Russia

Shell intends to exit equity partnerships held with Gazprom entities

LONDON, February 28, 2022 – The board of shell plc (“Shell”) announced today that they are planning to pull out of their joint ventures with Gazprom and related entities—that includes their 27.5 percent stake in the Sakhalin-II LNG facility, their 50 percent share in the Salym petroleum Development and The Gydan Energy ventur. Plus, shell also intends to end its involvement in The Norf stream 2 pipeline project.

“WE ara shocked by The loss of Life in Ukraine, which we deplore, resulting from a senseless act of military aggression which threatens European security,” stated Shell’s CEO, Ben van Beurden.

Ukraine and other countries Has been working together to manage The company ’ response to this whole crisis on the ground. On top of that, shell will also work with aid partners and humanitarian agencies to Help in The relief effort.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-r...-entities.html>

steelraven74 said:What kind of sanctions are we even talking about if gas, oil, and all those other commodities are still flowing straight into Europe?
How on earth are they paying for it if everything is frozen? You can bet your life Russia isn't giving it away for free.

Sanctions aren't meant to starve a nation to death. Think of it like this: would people survive on nothing but checks if nobody was buying their essential exports?

steelraven74 said:What kind of sanctions are we even talking about if gas, oil, and all those other commodities are still flowing straight into Europe?
How on earth are they paying for it if everything is frozen? You can bet your life Russia isn't giving it away for free.

That's putting it lightly... there aren't any...

It’s all just a way to pull the wool over people's eyes so they don't realize the Ukrainians were basically thrown under the bus.

Look, I’m telling you, people throw around talk of slapping sanctions on the central bank like it's some kind of joke. It's basically just mindless chatter at this point. 😳

Matthew Rodriguez9 said:Spot on... the whole play here is to drain Russia's bank account while simultaneously tanking the European standard of living, basically forcing them to stay dependent on the US.

Once that's settled, the US can shift its full attention toward China.

It's pretty obvious where their foreign policy is headed... which is exactly why they need a Democratic win again, both in Congress and in the presidential election.

I suspect the Chinese are well aware of this strategy,
so the real question is how they’ll ultimately react, because seeing Russia reduced to a mere pawn isn't exactly something that aligns with their own interests.

And since a major confrontation between China and the USA isn't far off, I imagine many people on this forum will find themselves living through it.

Any kind of sanctions—let's be honest—are a direct hit to global trade, but there are always winners and losers in these games. When you actually sit down and weigh what Russia stands to gain against what the West is aiming for, it becomes painfully obvious: Russia is going to walk away with the short-term win here.

What’s actually left for the sanctions to do?

#kocar# said:
I mean, I suspect the folks over in China are pretty aware of this
so it’s really more about how they decide to play their hand in the end, since turning Russia into just some random pawn doesn't exactly look great for them.
And honestly, a major showdown between China and the USA feels like it could be right around the corner; I bet a lot of people hanging out on this forum are going to feel that one personally.

Back in the 60s, you had these types of armchair analysts predicting a massive clash between the USA and the USSR within this very decade.
I guess we should ask what Russia actually means to China in any real sense? Politically, they’re like a dead man who somehow crawled back to life lately thanks to aggressive moves, military muscle, and high oil prices. Economically, they basically just export hydrocarbons, minerals, and grain. Tech-wise and organizationally, they seem to be lagging behind the rest of the modern world by at least a decade. And trade-wise, their balance with Russia is like 1:10 compared to what they pull in from the USA—and that’s not even counting the West or everyone else standing with them.
If you really think China is going to side with Russia and just casually walk away from a market worth well over a trillion bucks a year just to protect maybe 60 billion they get from Russia, well, you might want to rethink that.