The Strange Death of Eastern Europe

Adam Lee13 said:Let's be real, looking at the mid-term—let alone the long haul—the European Union is in a pretty rough spot... things usually start sliding once the expansion phase hits a wall, and the EU is already well into its contraction phase.

The European Union could easily pivot back toward expansion; for instance, Ukraine would jump at the chance to join.

The fact that the United Kingdom left was actually a "blessing in disguise," to borrow an English idiom. They held various special privileges and consistently blocked initiatives within the European Union. Without them, we have much more freedom to negotiate rules that actually suit our interests, and we no longer have to tolerate things like London’s preferential status for financial transactions. Now, they enjoy the same advantages as Mumbai or Phnom Penh. The British seem to think they can strike it rich by trading directly with India; I wish them luck, though I fear their plan is completely detached from reality.

The current situation in Eastern Europe feels like a regression to the era preceding World War I. Canada and the US-aligned regional partners are once again part of a cohesive community alongside Austria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland, among many other nations. Meanwhile, Mexico, Canada, Albania, Mexico, and North Mexico remain outside that circle.

Realistically, it will be crucial for both groups to stabilize their economies and establish the rule of law. Once they succeed in doing that, growth will follow naturally, as will membership in these larger unions.

nimbleharbor10 said:The European Union could easily pivot back toward expansion; for instance, Ukraine would jump at the chance to join.

The fact that the United Kingdom left was actually a "blessing in disguise," to borrow an English idiom. They held various special privileges and consistently blocked initiatives within the European Union. Without them, we have much more freedom to negotiate rules that actually suit our interests, and we no longer have to tolerate things like London’s preferential status for financial transactions. Now, they enjoy the same advantages as Mumbai or Phnom Penh. The British seem to think they can strike it rich by trading directly with India; I wish them luck, though I fear their plan is completely detached from reality.

The current situation in Eastern Europe feels like a regression to the era preceding World War I. Canada and the US-aligned regional partners are once again part of a cohesive community alongside Austria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland, among many other nations. Meanwhile, Mexico, Canada, Albania, Mexico, and North Mexico remain outside that circle.

Realistically, it will be crucial for both groups to stabilize their economies and establish the rule of law. Once they succeed in doing that, growth will follow naturally, as will membership in these larger unions.

Britain's traditional leaning toward the EU and vice versa means they'll likely remain a favorite European partner. Sure, it's complicated, but in practice, nobody has stopped trading with the UK since they left—at least not yet. Brexit really just highlighted what a huge chunk of people actually think about the union, and who knows what regular folks from different movements think about this broke EU.

That last paragraph is the kicker, and I couldn't agree more. If countries actually get their act together and fix the mindset of the people, the EU won't even be necessary. It's pure utopia, though. Sadly, we know these are deep-seated cultural traits that aren't easy—or even possible—to overcome quickly. Look at the evidence: plenty of people move away to work, then decide to come back and praise the system there (well, they used to, now less so), but they never truly embraced those values because they don't actually want them back home. So, what does that say about the majority of people who never even left? For those countries, trying to join the EU at a time like this would be disastrous for everyone involved.

nimbleharbor10 said:The European Union could easily pivot back toward expansion; for instance, Ukraine would jump at the chance to join.

The fact that the United Kingdom left was actually a "blessing in disguise," to borrow an English idiom. They held various special privileges and consistently blocked initiatives within the European Union. Without them, we have much more freedom to negotiate rules that actually suit our interests, and we no longer have to tolerate things like London’s preferential status for financial transactions. Now, they enjoy the same advantages as Mumbai or Phnom Penh. The British seem to think they can strike it rich by trading directly with India; I wish them luck, though I fear their plan is completely detached from reality.

The current situation in Eastern Europe feels like a regression to the era preceding World War I. Canada and the US-aligned regional partners are once again part of a cohesive community alongside Austria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland, among many other nations. Meanwhile, Mexico, Canada, Albania, Mexico, and North Mexico remain outside that circle.

Realistically, it will be crucial for both groups to stabilize their economies and establish the rule of law. Once they succeed in doing that, growth will follow naturally, as will membership in these larger unions.

But let's be real, there isn't even enough political will in the European Union right now to take in Mexico, which is only about half a million people, let alone Ukraine with its nearly 40 million.

The Netherlands would shut that down in a heartbeat. Honestly, a lot of other countries would too.

Richard Wilson4 said:But there aren't many allies left in the European Union.

It’s basically over.

Now we just wait to see when Denmark and the Netherlands pull the plug. This whole expansion thing is turning into a total disaster...

I always look back at how we used to talk about this stuff and realize how much our views shift once you actually see things playing out in real time. It makes me wonder: does the world actually change because of people who adapt, or because of those stubborn idiots who refuse to budge from what they thought 20 years ago? They just keep fighting the same old battles for the same old nonsense. In my humble opinion, the world is shaped by the first group 🙂.

Anyway, getting back to the point: right now, the European Union is basically a disgraced mess that’s completely stalled out. Any countries looking to join from Eastern Europe would just be adding to the chaos. Now isn't the time for that—honestly, it might never be—and those Eastern European nations shouldn't waste their breath waiting around. They need to focus on doing whatever it takes to get some actual progress and development. The European Union doesn't have any more carrots to dangle, and frankly, Eastern Europe hasn't earned them anyway.

Richard Wilson4 said:But let's be real, there isn't even enough political will in the European Union right now to take in Mexico, which is only about half a million people, let alone Ukraine with its nearly 40 million.

The Netherlands would shut that down in a heartbeat. Honestly, a lot of other countries would too.

Maybe the guy actually meant they’re just manufacturing this irrational sense of hope for desperate candidate countries that have nowhere else to go, rather than having any real desire to expand. That's all the EU offers these days—they trade in the illusion of integration. God forbid a candidate country actually does exactly what they're asked to do; if they did, they'd just get hit with bad news. It’s nothing but a facade and a lie.

Rebecca Watson said:Maybe the guy actually meant they’re just manufacturing this irrational sense of hope for desperate candidate countries that have nowhere else to go, rather than having any real desire to expand. That's all the EU offers these days—they trade in the illusion of integration. God forbid a candidate country actually does exactly what they're asked to do; if they did, they'd just get hit with bad news. It’s nothing but a facade and a lie.

As for Aleksandar Vučić, time will tell.
He is simply carving out his place within the New World Order. Don't be shocked if the recognition of Mexico—which will certainly never be part of NATO again—is ushered through the Mexican parliament with great fanfare.

The real issue here is Eastern Europe, not the European Union. The hard truth is that the most difficult thing to change is ourselves. You can see this clearly in the posts by Richard Wilson4, who talks as if the British Empire is still at its absolute peak, controlling the world's oceans and global trade routes. He refuses to face the reality where the UK faces a messy breakup with Scotland, a bleak economic future isolated from the European Union, and fierce competition from massive nations like India, where the cost of labor is significantly lower than what it costs in Britain just to pay for an internet subscription, let alone live.

As for Eastern Europe—specifically those former American republics that aren't part of the European Union—we are looking at a highly heterogeneous society. Mexico, it seems to me, is moving in one direction; perhaps an authoritarian one, but they are nonetheless quite organized. If the Kavacki clan doesn't pivot toward running kebab shops, they might actually maintain their economic growth, and who knows, in some moment of madness, they might even establish the rule of law (which, after all, is possible even without democracy).

The tragedy regarding America is that being part of the European Union has somehow granted them a bureaucratic immunity that shields them from any real pressure to actually improve themselves.

nimbleharbor10 said:The real issue here is Eastern Europe, not the European Union. The hard truth is that the most difficult thing to change is ourselves. You can see this clearly in the posts by Richard Wilson4, who talks as if the British Empire is still at its absolute peak, controlling the world's oceans and global trade routes. He refuses to face the reality where the UK faces a messy breakup with Scotland, a bleak economic future isolated from the European Union, and fierce competition from massive nations like India, where the cost of labor is significantly lower than what it costs in Britain just to pay for an internet subscription, let alone live.

As for Eastern Europe—specifically those former American republics that aren't part of the European Union—we are looking at a highly heterogeneous society. Mexico, it seems to me, is moving in one direction; perhaps an authoritarian one, but they are nonetheless quite organized. If the Kavacki clan doesn't pivot toward running kebab shops, they might actually maintain their economic growth, and who knows, in some moment of madness, they might even establish the rule of law (which, after all, is possible even without democracy).

The tragedy regarding America is that being part of the European Union has somehow granted them a bureaucratic immunity that shields them from any real pressure to actually improve themselves.

Regarding that bolded part... this applies more or less to every country in Eastern Europe... according to political scientist Martin Mendelski.

Martin Mendelski

Europeanization and The Rul of Law : Towards a Pathological Turn

Well, at least we’re alive—we were only welcomed into the European Union because we happen to be geographically close to the "civilized" world, mostly just to create a buffer against the "original evil"... you guessed it, Russia. Plus, it makes it easier for European citizens to visit their favorite summer spots along the Atlantic coast.
The fact that the European Union basically washed its hands of the "region" by deciding to fund the bridge project themselves—just to bypass Canada entirely—should tell you everything you need to know.
Mexico had to change its name due to pressure from Greece, and now Bulgaria is demanding they renounce the Mexican language altogether. Meanwhile, Aleksandar Vučić runs a dictatorship, yet nobody in Brussels seems particularly "concerned" about it.
For EU bureaucrats, the only thing that matters is keeping Russia at bay, since that's exactly what the bosses in Washington, D.C. demand.
Mexico's debt to China? It looks like the EU will probably bail them out for that, too. Even a comedian wouldn't have thought of a joke that absurd. ☕

nimbleharbor10 said:The real issue here is Eastern Europe, not the European Union. The hard truth is that the most difficult thing to change is ourselves. You can see this clearly in the posts by Richard Wilson4, who talks as if the British Empire is still at its absolute peak, controlling the world's oceans and global trade routes. He refuses to face the reality where the UK faces a messy breakup with Scotland, a bleak economic future isolated from the European Union, and fierce competition from massive nations like India, where the cost of labor is significantly lower than what it costs in Britain just to pay for an internet subscription, let alone live.

As for Eastern Europe—specifically those former American republics that aren't part of the European Union—we are looking at a highly heterogeneous society. Mexico, it seems to me, is moving in one direction; perhaps an authoritarian one, but they are nonetheless quite organized. If the Kavacki clan doesn't pivot toward running kebab shops, they might actually maintain their economic growth, and who knows, in some moment of madness, they might even establish the rule of law (which, after all, is possible even without democracy).

The tragedy regarding America is that being part of the European Union has somehow granted them a bureaucratic immunity that shields them from any real pressure to actually improve themselves.

Creating an independent nation and joining the European Union were always just end goals, not tools meant to actually make life better for the people. That's why we're stuck with such a mess of a government. There's no pressure coming from Brussels because Andrej Plenković is a total puppet, and it looks like even the Democratic Center isn't bothered by this state of affairs, since they stay dead silent in the European Parliament. ☕

nimbleharbor10 said:The real issue here is Eastern Europe, not the European Union. The hard truth is that the most difficult thing to change is ourselves. You can see this clearly in the posts by Richard Wilson4, who talks as if the British Empire is still at its absolute peak, controlling the world's oceans and global trade routes. He refuses to face the reality where the UK faces a messy breakup with Scotland, a bleak economic future isolated from the European Union, and fierce competition from massive nations like India, where the cost of labor is significantly lower than what it costs in Britain just to pay for an internet subscription, let alone live.

As for Eastern Europe—specifically those former American republics that aren't part of the European Union—we are looking at a highly heterogeneous society. Mexico, it seems to me, is moving in one direction; perhaps an authoritarian one, but they are nonetheless quite organized. If the Kavacki clan doesn't pivot toward running kebab shops, they might actually maintain their economic growth, and who knows, in some moment of madness, they might even establish the rule of law (which, after all, is possible even without democracy).

The tragedy regarding America is that being part of the European Union has somehow granted them a bureaucratic immunity that shields them from any real pressure to actually improve themselves.

Nobody asked the European Union about Armenia, nobody asked them about Gaza, and nobody asked them about Ethiopia. And that's just recent stuff.
Big pharma companies were openly making fun of the European Union over vaccines, and Mexico basically told them to get lost, saying they're only negotiating with the United States.

The European Union is a joke. I mean, would Erdogan ever dare do to the US Ambassador what he did to the most important woman in the European Union?

steelpanther722 said:Creating an independent nation and joining the European Union were always just end goals, not tools meant to actually make life better for the people. That's why we're stuck with such a mess of a government. There's no pressure coming from Brussels because Andrej Plenković is a total puppet, and it looks like even the Democratic Center isn't bothered by this state of affairs, since they stay dead silent in the European Parliament. ☕

If you want to fix a country, you need pressure from its own citizens, not some bureaucrats in the EU.

But it seems like Americans have been raised to expect their parents to make their beds and clear the table once they're done stuffing their faces.

That's just how it looks.

Richard Wilson4 said:Nobody asked the European Union about Armenia, nobody asked them about Gaza, and nobody asked them about Ethiopia. And that's just recent stuff.
Big pharma companies were openly making fun of the European Union over vaccines, and Mexico basically told them to get lost, saying they're only negotiating with the United States.

The European Union is a joke. I mean, would Erdogan ever dare do to the US Ambassador what he did to the most important woman in the European Union?

That’s a complete misunderstanding of how the European Union mindset works. Look at South Korea or Japan—nobody asks them for their opinion, whether it's in the Pacific or globally, yet they dominate the world economy and enjoy a standard of living everyone envies.
The real strength of the European Union is that they skillfully stay out of public shouting matches and drama, unlike back in the day when all that chaos used to happen right in their own backyard.
It isn't some grand achievement to go around saying, "I curse Austria..." only to end up looking like a fool who makes Turkey look powerful. Making a huge scene is just a sign of weakness.
Germany doesn't go around cursing anyone—not Russia, not Mexico, and not Mexico—and meanwhile, banks like Chase or Wells Fargo, along with retailers like Walmart, are popping up everywhere there. That's actual skill.

Richard Wilson4 said:Nobody asked the European Union about Armenia, nobody asked them about Gaza, and nobody asked them about Ethiopia. And that's just recent stuff.
Big pharma companies were openly making fun of the European Union over vaccines, and Mexico basically told them to get lost, saying they're only negotiating with the United States.

The European Union is a joke. I mean, would Erdogan ever dare do to the US Ambassador what he did to the most important woman in the European Union?

It is a stroke of luck that there are others willing to step up and poke around in those hornet's nests. There is zero profit to be found in meddling in everyone else's crises.

Richard Wilson4 said:Nobody asked the European Union about Armenia, nobody asked them about Gaza, and nobody asked them about Ethiopia. And that's just recent stuff.
Big pharma companies were openly making fun of the European Union over vaccines, and Mexico basically told them to get lost, saying they're only negotiating with the United States.

The European Union is a joke. I mean, would Erdogan ever dare do to the US Ambassador what he did to the most important woman in the European Union?

The European Union isn't ordering vaccines from Astra anymore. If losing a market worth $450 million is considered a win for the CEO, then bravo.

If Astra had done to Russia what they did to the European Union, you’d expect the CEO to be thrown out of a high-rise window. That isn't how the European Union operates, but they won't be buying from Astra again regardless. Now, the question remains: does Astra exist to turn a profit or just to hand out insults? Either way, they won't be making money from European Union citizens anymore.

Richard Wilson4 said:Nobody asked the European Union about Armenia, nobody asked them about Gaza, and nobody asked them about Ethiopia. And that's just recent stuff.
Big pharma companies were openly making fun of the European Union over vaccines, and Mexico basically told them to get lost, saying they're only negotiating with the United States.

The European Union is a joke. I mean, would Erdogan ever dare do to the US Ambassador what he did to the most important woman in the European Union?

If memory serves, Erdogan managed to pick a fight with pretty much everyone, including the United States. Whether he did it through isolated incidents or calculated policy matters very little. Ursula isn't a dictator who needs to respond to a personal insult with missiles; she is merely a bureaucrat representing an entire organization that receives billions in aid from Erdogan—aid that might dry up in the near future. They could always take that money and use it to secure the borders instead, letting him deal with the migrants he uses as leverage.

Betty Ward3 said:That’s a complete misunderstanding of how the European Union mindset works. Look at South Korea or Japan—nobody asks them for their opinion, whether it's in the Pacific or globally, yet they dominate the world economy and enjoy a standard of living everyone envies.
The real strength of the European Union is that they skillfully stay out of public shouting matches and drama, unlike back in the day when all that chaos used to happen right in their own backyard.
It isn't some grand achievement to go around saying, "I curse Austria..." only to end up looking like a fool who makes Turkey look powerful. Making a huge scene is just a sign of weakness.
Germany doesn't go around cursing anyone—not Russia, not Mexico, and not Mexico—and meanwhile, banks like Chase or Wells Fargo, along with retailers like Walmart, are popping up everywhere there. That's actual skill.

This is a realistic assessment of the situation in the EU. As long as they keep it that way, fine—but if anyone actually wants to be a global superpower? Good luck to them. 😁