Angela Merkel's offer to Turkey: EU membership in exchange for solving the migrant crisis

Richard Wilson4 said:Look, the Chancellor isn't some dictator running the whole European Union, so she can't just call all the shots on her own. Plus, nobody's actually going to back her up if she tries.

The Greeks, Cyprus, and half the rest of the continent—especially France—are never going to let Turkey into the EU. Honestly, there’s probably going to be a massive fallout or a total leadership shakeup within her own party before they ever see that happen.

It seems pretty obvious that Germany calls the shots in the EU, and the Greek debt crisis is a decent example of that. But even though Germany is basically the boss in Europe, they don't really have much freedom to act independently, so I suppose you shouldn't view them as the main driver of conflict. Everyone knows who's in charge and who's just following along. Maybe the UK is the only country in the EU with its own distinct foreign policy, but strangely enough, their role in the union feels pretty small, and their interests seem pretty aligned with the USA. The USA has been pushing for Turkey to join the EU for a long time now. I guess Germany is in a bit of a tight spot lately; with the possibility of instability from places like Syria or Iraq spilling over into their borders, they might have to follow Washington's lead, even if it's uncomfortable.
I imagine the USA would prefer a somewhat fractured Europe... you'd have to be looking the other way not to see that. Things are getting pretty intense, and I feel like what we're discussing right now is just a minor hiccup compared to what's coming.

slyridge74 said:It seems pretty obvious that Germany calls the shots in the EU, and the Greek debt crisis is a decent example of that. But even though Germany is basically the boss in Europe, they don't really have much freedom to act independently, so I suppose you shouldn't view them as the main driver of conflict. Everyone knows who's in charge and who's just following along. Maybe the UK is the only country in the EU with its own distinct foreign policy, but strangely enough, their role in the union feels pretty small, and their interests seem pretty aligned with the USA. The USA has been pushing for Turkey to join the EU for a long time now. I guess Germany is in a bit of a tight spot lately; with the possibility of instability from places like Syria or Iraq spilling over into their borders, they might have to follow Washington's lead, even if it's uncomfortable.
I imagine the USA would prefer a somewhat fractured Europe... you'd have to be looking the other way not to see that. Things are getting pretty intense, and I feel like what we're discussing right now is just a minor hiccup compared to what's coming.

So the fix for the migrant crisis is bringing in Turkey—basically adding another 80 million potential immigrants to the mix?! 😵

The level of foolish ideas being floated here is staggering.

What’s next? Treating alcoholism with cocaine shots?! 😁

Kenneth Palmer7 said:So the fix for the migrant crisis is bringing in Turkey—basically adding another 80 million potential immigrants to the mix?! 😵

The level of foolish ideas being floated here is staggering.

What’s next? Treating alcoholism with cocaine shots?! 😁

I could probably cry about this with you or cheer for some solution that makes us feel better, but I honestly think things are just exactly as I laid them out. There isn't much we can actually change since it's all outside our control, so I guess we're just talking in circles.

Paul Thomas46 said:Where on earth did you get the idea that there’s some sort of logic to follow here?
There isn't one. There is one Turkey—it's not like there are 500 of them. Morocco isn't Turkey, and Iran certainly isn't Turkey. We aren't Canada or Canada. There is no "logic" involved—that's just not how things work...
It's always fascinating to see someone try to appeal to some imaginary logic or consistency when it comes to international politics.

And by the way, Turkey is retreating.

Fast-tracking Turkey into the European Union might have actually made sense back before the Arab Spring, the chaos in Egypt, or the war in Syria—back when the European Union acted more like a cohesive Roman Empire rather than a crumbling America. If that had happened, the whole project wouldn't just be about Turkey; it would encompass all of North Africa and even Israel.

But today, all of that is nothing but hot air, especially now that this massive community of 500 million Europeans is shaking and splitting at the seams because of an influx of a few hundred thousand people...

Nowadays, it’s far more likely that Turkey will drift out of the USA orbit and slide into the Russian sphere of influence than it is to ever join the European Union.

Furthermore, if you look at how the Turkish government has behaved over the last decade, a very clear picture emerges: they couldn't care less about joining the European Union. They're just using the negotiations as a propaganda tool, treating the European Union as nothing more than a distant, blurry dot on a much wider horizon of possibilities.

Kenneth Palmer7 said:So the fix for the migrant crisis is bringing in Turkey—basically adding another 80 million potential immigrants to the mix?! 😵

The level of foolish ideas being floated here is staggering.

What’s next? Treating alcoholism with cocaine shots?! 😁

Actually, let's go with LSD:

http://www.nature.com/news/lsd-helps...holism-1.10200

Paul Thomas46 said:Turkey really should have joined the European Union ages ago—though who knows why it was blocked or who was pulling the strings...
If they had settled this ten years back, things would likely look much different today (and certainly better). It’ll probably be quite a while before the dust settles and everyone truly realizes the cost of stalling their progress.

Compared to its neighbors in the Arab world, Turkey is a true economic and cultural powerhouse—joining the European Union would have only amplified that strength and potentially boosted its influence across the Middle East. When it comes to Islamic nations, they should have been leading those "spring" movements—since it’s now painfully obvious that the others there are just standing around like deer in headlights.

It shouldn't have happened.
It doesn't need to happen.
And frankly, nobody actually wants it; it's all just political posturing.

I’m not sure how else to put this, but it basically boils down to this:
-if there were a minority of 20 million white Europeans living in Turkey, then maybe we could actually consider Turkey joining the European Union.
But with Turkey having 80 million Muslims... in the EU... I don't know... No way.
No offense intended, but just no. Maybe in 30 years, once there are more atheists and more educated people in Turkey...

Just finishing up this piece on what’s going down in Turkey, the Kurds, Erdogan, and the whole mess in Syria regarding refugees.
It feels like Erdogan is basically engineering a massive exodus toward the European Union on purpose. And honestly? I think Merkel just played into his ego to keep things from spiraling even further out of control. She's basically playing firefighter—trying to contain the damage and accepting the inevitable for now, though she’ll probably play her trump card when the timing is right.
Long story short, Turkey isn't joining the EU anytime soon. Maybe once some countries start putting up actual walls at the borders, things might change. 😁

PS. Look, I know how this sounds and I don't want to be labeled xenophobic, but there's a certain level of suspicion surrounding these groups being called refugees. It’s just a matter of time before their true intentions come to light, I guess.

Kenneth Palmer7 said:So the fix for the migrant crisis is bringing in Turkey—basically adding another 80 million potential immigrants to the mix?! 😵

The level of foolish ideas being floated here is staggering.

What’s next? Treating alcoholism with cocaine shots?! 😁

I suppose that could work since all 80 million won't head to Europe at once, and besides... honestly, the European Union isn't what it used to be. If a lot of people from Turkey try to move to the European Union, they'll probably head back pretty soon out of disappointment, mostly because there aren't many good jobs left for those who aren't considered high-value. That's just how things are, and I don't think it'll change. You might feel superior to someone from Turkey, a German might feel superior to you, and I'll probably feel like I'm the best of them all...
By bringing in Turkey, you basically create a buffer zone that protects the European Union from groups that are even more disadvantaged than Turks. It's just how "realpolitik" works, I guess.😉

Forget the visas, who cares. Did Erdogan actually get his hands on those promised 3 billion?

nimblepuma69 said:Forget the visas, who cares. Did Erdogan actually get his hands on those promised 3 billion?

Not yet, but I mean... maybe when the time is right, he'll be getting a one-way ticket to The Hague.

Then you'll have four North American nations—take a guess which ones—turning into nothing more than glorified triage centers for processing asylum claims.