NYSE prices are going absolutely insane

NYSE NYSE

The IDF posted something on Twitter, "...Israeli Air Force is bombing Syrian airfields to block Soviet arms deliveries...".

Even though this was just a throwback to 1973—marking the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War (that whole Syria and Egypt vs. Israel conflict)—and the military was just trying to be historical on their feed, the traders at the NYSE lost their minds.

See, the algorithms picked up on those trigger words: "Syria... Israel... Bombing..." and triggered a massive wave of automated oil buying. Pure panic.

Because of that glitch, crude jumped from $101 to $103 per barrel—and it kept climbing until actual humans stepped in to stop the madness and stabilize the market.

A pretty wild bit of trivia—maybe something you're better off not knowing...

Sforza's people say:
NYSE New York Stock Exchange/New York City Stock Exchange

On the US Army profile on Twitter, a certain piece of information popped up: "..The Israeli Air Force is bombing Syrian airfields to block the delivery of Soviet weaponry...".

Even though this info actually refers back to 1973—marking the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War (that conflict between Syria and Egypt against Israel)—and the US Army just wanted to commemorate it on their feed, the algorithms over at the NYSE went into a total tailspin.

Essentially, the trading bots flagged those high-tension keywords: "Syria... Israel... Bombing..." and triggered a massive panic, sparking an unprecedented wave of automated buying in oil derivatives.

As a result, the price per barrel shot from $101 up to $103, showing a clear upward trend until the "human factor" finally stepped in to calm the madness down.

A rather fascinating bit of trivia, though perhaps one you'd rather not know...

Hmm, I don't know. I'm not seeing any major volatility here.
http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx

Raymond Vaughn8 said:

Sforza's people say:
NYSE New York Stock Exchange/New York City Stock Exchange

On the US Army profile on Twitter, a certain piece of information popped up: "..The Israeli Air Force is bombing Syrian airfields to block the delivery of Soviet weaponry...".

Even though this info actually refers back to 1973—marking the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War (that conflict between Syria and Egypt against Israel)—and the US Army just wanted to commemorate it on their feed, the algorithms over at the NYSE went into a total tailspin.

Essentially, the trading bots flagged those high-tension keywords: "Syria... Israel... Bombing..." and triggered a massive panic, sparking an unprecedented wave of automated buying in oil derivatives.

As a result, the price per barrel shot from $101 up to $103, showing a clear upward trend until the "human factor" finally stepped in to calm the madness down.

A rather fascinating bit of trivia, though perhaps one you'd rather not know...

Hmm, I don't know. I'm not seeing any major volatility here.
http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx

I caught this news on Saturday, back on September 12, 2013.

The whole narrative about how these price hikes actually play out... that's what really caught me off guard.

Sophia Evans2 said:NYSE NYSE

The IDF posted something on Twitter, "...Israeli Air Force is bombing Syrian airfields to block Soviet arms deliveries...".

Even though this was just a throwback to 1973—marking the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War (that whole Syria and Egypt vs. Israel conflict)—and the military was just trying to be historical on their feed, the traders at the NYSE lost their minds.

See, the algorithms picked up on those trigger words: "Syria... Israel... Bombing..." and triggered a massive wave of automated oil buying. Pure panic.

Because of that glitch, crude jumped from $101 to $103 per barrel—and it kept climbing until actual humans stepped in to stop the madness and stabilize the market.

A pretty wild bit of trivia—maybe something you're better off not knowing...

hmmm, I'm honestly not seeing the point of your post??

It’s been like this for ages—real people aren't even making most of the trades anymore:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algorithmic_trading
http://money.cnn.com/2013/07/08/inve...arket-citadel/

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100685958
Algorithms Replacing Wall Street Analysts, Investors

Computers just gobble up massive amounts of data, run it through these heuristic algorithms, and then basically make the "decision" on what to buy or sell and at what price.

And get this—there's this thing called "slicing," where one giant trade that would normally freak out the market gets broken down into hundreds of tiny little pieces, like under $10,000 each. They spread them out across dozens of different firms so they're super hard to track. But honestly? When everyone starts playing the game like that, you're bound to get these insane market swings.

That’s exactly why stuff happens like this, where some totally random storm in the Gulf of Mexico can send the entire oil derivatives market into a tailspin over something trivial. It feels like the whole market is intentionally rigged to be unstable, just so someone can shake things up whenever they feel like it.

bluesurfer6 said:hmmm, I'm honestly not seeing the point of your post??

So, some algorithm is flagging price hikes for crude because it caught keywords like Syria, Israel, or bombing floating around the digital ether—probably some random feed on Twitter. If a janitor hadn't stepped away from his mop for a second, we probably wouldn't even know this was happening.

It’s wild how much we rely on automated junk that spikes prices based on news cycles that are practically ancient history.

Sophia Evans2 said:So, some algorithm is flagging price hikes for crude because it caught keywords like Syria, Israel, or bombing floating around the digital ether—probably some random feed on Twitter. If a janitor hadn't stepped away from his mop for a second, we probably wouldn't even know this was happening.

It’s wild how much we rely on automated junk that spikes prices based on news cycles that are practically ancient history.

Just a quick little correction here, I guess. You don't actually trade oil itself directly on the NYSE—not really, anyway—unless, of course, you're talking about trading the actual stocks of those big oil companies like ExxonMobil.

A computer program just does exactly what it’s told to do, I guess. It follows whatever specific parameters a person sets up for it, and most of the time, you see this happen when someone programs it to trigger a buy or a sell order once a certain price point is hit. Now, people are talking about how just three specific keywords could potentially send oil prices skyrocketing, but I don't know. Maybe. Honestly, I have my doubts. There is just way too much money moving around in that arena for me to believe none of this is being watched closely by some dedicated team of experts who are ready to jump in the second things start looking sideways.

I mean, honestly, I don't think we're looking at some massive price spike here, maybe not even a 2% jump if you really look at the numbers. Oil prices have always been such a rollercoaster, haven't they? It's just how the market works, I guess. You see things like when Obama announces an intervention in Syria, and suddenly everything shifts—prices can swing from something like $7 or $8 all the way up to $110 a barrel practically overnight. And when you consider that Syria isn't exactly a major global oil exporter, it just goes to show how much of this is driven by pure speculation and political tension rather than just actual supply and demand.

So, I was scrolling through the IDF's Twitter feed earlier, and I noticed they posted this update about how the Israeli Air Force is currently hitting airfields over in Syria to try and cut off the flow of Soviet weaponry coming into the region. It’s one of those things that really makes you stop and think about how quickly everything shifts on the ground out there, I guess.

I just realized it now. I mean, it’s kind of wild when you think about it—using a program for such critical, heavy-duty stuff when it doesn't even have the sense to know that the Soviet Union isn't even around anymore. It's just strange, I guess. 😁

Jack Alvarez25 said:Just a quick little correction here, I guess. You don't actually trade oil itself directly on the NYSE—not really, anyway—unless, of course, you're talking about trading the actual stocks of those big oil companies like ExxonMobil.

A computer program just does exactly what it’s told to do, I guess. It follows whatever specific parameters a person sets up for it, and most of the time, you see this happen when someone programs it to trigger a buy or a sell order once a certain price point is hit. Now, people are talking about how just three specific keywords could potentially send oil prices skyrocketing, but I don't know. Maybe. Honestly, I have my doubts. There is just way too much money moving around in that arena for me to believe none of this is being watched closely by some dedicated team of experts who are ready to jump in the second things start looking sideways.

I mean, honestly, I don't think we're looking at some massive price spike here, maybe not even a 2% jump if you really look at the numbers. Oil prices have always been such a rollercoaster, haven't they? It's just how the market works, I guess. You see things like when Obama announces an intervention in Syria, and suddenly everything shifts—prices can swing from something like $7 or $8 all the way up to $110 a barrel practically overnight. And when you consider that Syria isn't exactly a major global oil exporter, it just goes to show how much of this is driven by pure speculation and political tension rather than just actual supply and demand.

So, I was scrolling through the IDF's Twitter feed earlier, and I noticed they posted this update about how the Israeli Air Force is currently hitting airfields over in Syria to try and cut off the flow of Soviet weaponry coming into the region. It’s one of those things that really makes you stop and think about how quickly everything shifts on the ground out there, I guess.

I just realized it now. I mean, it’s kind of wild when you think about it—using a program for such critical, heavy-duty stuff when it doesn't even have the sense to know that the Soviet Union isn't even around anymore. It's just strange, I guess. 😁

Exactly...

Jack Alvarez25 said:Just a quick little correction here, I guess. You don't actually trade oil itself directly on the NYSE—not really, anyway—unless, of course, you're talking about trading the actual stocks of those big oil companies like ExxonMobil.

A computer program just does exactly what it’s told to do, I guess. It follows whatever specific parameters a person sets up for it, and most of the time, you see this happen when someone programs it to trigger a buy or a sell order once a certain price point is hit. Now, people are talking about how just three specific keywords could potentially send oil prices skyrocketing, but I don't know. Maybe. Honestly, I have my doubts. There is just way too much money moving around in that arena for me to believe none of this is being watched closely by some dedicated team of experts who are ready to jump in the second things start looking sideways.

I mean, honestly, I don't think we're looking at some massive price spike here, maybe not even a 2% jump if you really look at the numbers. Oil prices have always been such a rollercoaster, haven't they? It's just how the market works, I guess. You see things like when Obama announces an intervention in Syria, and suddenly everything shifts—prices can swing from something like $7 or $8 all the way up to $110 a barrel practically overnight. And when you consider that Syria isn't exactly a major global oil exporter, it just goes to show how much of this is driven by pure speculation and political tension rather than just actual supply and demand.

So, I was scrolling through the IDF's Twitter feed earlier, and I noticed they posted this update about how the Israeli Air Force is currently hitting airfields over in Syria to try and cut off the flow of Soviet weaponry coming into the region. It’s one of those things that really makes you stop and think about how quickly everything shifts on the ground out there, I guess.

I just realized it now. I mean, it’s kind of wild when you think about it—using a program for such critical, heavy-duty stuff when it doesn't even have the sense to know that the Soviet Union isn't even around anymore. It's just strange, I guess. 😁

Bottom line? Computers can't actually grasp the meaning behind a sentence or understand context. They’re just hunting for keywords. It's basically the same deal as a Google search bot.

It’s almost comforting, in a dark way—knowing the stability of the entire global economy rests on machines that are about as smart as a gut parasite in an ant.

A simple three-step scheme:

Buy up massive amounts of oil on the commodities market through a series of small, quiet trades.

Hack the IDF website and blast out a fake headline claiming Israel launched simultaneous air, missile, and ground strikes against Iran and Iraq.

Wait for the prices to skyrocket—then sell everything.

Gary Wilson said:A simple three-step scheme:

Buy up massive amounts of oil on the commodities market through a series of small, quiet trades.

Hack the IDF website and blast out a fake headline claiming Israel launched simultaneous air, missile, and ground strikes against Iran and Iraq.

Wait for the prices to skyrocket—then sell everything.

Basically, a simple plan za zavrsiti u zatvor.

Like I’ve mentioned before, computers just execute their tasks based on the parameters they're given, they don't exactly go browsing through IDF websites or scrolling through Facebook profiles, I guess.

And even if news like that actually moves the needle, it’s usually just a flash in the pan if the info turns out to be fake. For instance, regarding oil, there was that false report about those missile launches toward Syria about 15 days ago. It only lasted maybe ten minutes, and the price jumped a couple percent at most. Once you factor in all those brokerage commissions, you might actually end up losing money, especially if you spread that trade out over a bunch of tiny transactions.

Trust me, some of the sharpest minds alive are working these markets today, and honestly, it's incredibly hard to pull a fast one on them.😢

Jack Alvarez25 said:Basically, a simple plan za zavrsiti u zatvor.

Like I’ve mentioned before, computers just execute their tasks based on the parameters they're given, they don't exactly go browsing through IDF websites or scrolling through Facebook profiles, I guess.

And even if news like that actually moves the needle, it’s usually just a flash in the pan if the info turns out to be fake. For instance, regarding oil, there was that false report about those missile launches toward Syria about 15 days ago. It only lasted maybe ten minutes, and the price jumped a couple percent at most. Once you factor in all those brokerage commissions, you might actually end up losing money, especially if you spread that trade out over a bunch of tiny transactions.

Trust me, some of the sharpest minds alive are working these markets today, and honestly, it's incredibly hard to pull a fast one on them.😢

Honestly, I didn't expect anyone to take this seriously. This was meant to be a joke—pretty much a commentary on the entire thread.

And let's be clear: while the computers are handling the trades, you can bet the brokers and dealers aren't just hanging out in the cafeteria gossiping about nonsense.

Gary Wilson said:Honestly, I didn't expect anyone to take this seriously. This was meant to be a joke—pretty much a commentary on the entire thread.

And let's be clear: while the computers are handling the trades, you can bet the brokers and dealers aren't just hanging out in the cafeteria gossiping about nonsense.

I guess when there’s serious money on the line, it’s hard not to get tunnel vision and miss the bigger picture😁.

There have been quite a few movies out there about this kind of thing, you know, stock market sabotage. Like one of the recent Bond movies, Casino Royale, where they tried to sabotage a new plane just to make certain stock prices plummet.
I think maybe Pehlin123 was in a movie with Travolt... I can't quite remember the details... something about sabotage in the underworld to manipulate the price of gold, I believe.

And then, of course, there's that "lucky break" situation with Eddie Murphy where they were basically sabotaging the saboteurs using orange crop reports.

I clearly remember some film critic saying he couldn't wrap his head around how they actually made their fortune, though he admitted it was just how the movie played out (back then, most of us felt like the American market was way too complex and far beyond our reach). But years later, I found out that making that kind of money through insider information—we're talking 1,000% returns or even more—is actually entirely possible.

Look, I'm not even talking about movies here, I'm talking about THIS:

http://www.securitiestechnologymonit.../-25628-1.html
Universities put “ Blue gen ” Machines in Cloud to Help Hedge Funds trade Two hedge funds and another based on Long Island – ara set to tap high-performance computing Systems owned by Stony Brook University through a “ Cloud ” of networks that connect firms

So, what actually is Blue gen?

http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/history/ib...cons/bluegene/
Whereas IBM’s previous champ, IBM Deep Blue ®, had 32 processors and could calculate about 200 million potential chess moves per second in its historic six-game victory over a chess grand master in 1997, Blue Gene/L used 131,000 processors to routinely handle 280 trillion operations every second. A single scientist with a calculator would have to work nonstop for 177,000 years to perform the operations that Blue gen could do in One second. The Blue gen/L was also noteworthy for its choice of operating system, linux ® , and its support for The development of open source applications.

Blah blah blah... this news is like 15 years old. Modern computers today are like 10,000 times faster than this stuff.

Jack Alvarez25 said:I guess when there’s serious money on the line, it’s hard not to get tunnel vision and miss the bigger picture😁.

There have been quite a few movies out there about this kind of thing, you know, stock market sabotage. Like one of the recent Bond movies, Casino Royale, where they tried to sabotage a new plane just to make certain stock prices plummet.
I think maybe Pehlin123 was in a movie with Travolt... I can't quite remember the details... something about sabotage in the underworld to manipulate the price of gold, I believe.

And then, of course, there's that "lucky break" situation with Eddie Murphy where they were basically sabotaging the saboteurs using orange crop reports.

I clearly remember some film critic saying he couldn't wrap his head around how they actually made their fortune, though he admitted it was just how the movie played out (back then, most of us felt like the American market was way too complex and far beyond our reach). But years later, I found out that making that kind of money through insider information—we're talking 1,000% returns or even more—is actually entirely possible.

I wouldn't base my actual stance on Hollywood fantasies. In a movie, anything goes.

What we’re really looking at here is the age-old, fundamental question: Are markets efficient?
Let me lay out a few premises:
An efficient market doesn't require that the market price equals the intrinsic value at every single point in time. However, pricing errors must be unbiased—meaning any deviations should be purely random.

From this, it follows that a stock's value can be overvalued or undervalued, and there should be equal chances for both, regardless of the price-to-earnings ratio.

And if that holds true, then no specific group of investors should be able to consistently identify undervalued or overvalued stocks using any particular investment strategy.😁

Of course, all of that theory goes out the window if someone is sitting on insider information.

Gary Wilson said:I wouldn't base my actual stance on Hollywood fantasies. In a movie, anything goes.

What we’re really looking at here is the age-old, fundamental question: Are markets efficient?
Let me lay out a few premises:
An efficient market doesn't require that the market price equals the intrinsic value at every single point in time. However, pricing errors must be unbiased—meaning any deviations should be purely random.

From this, it follows that a stock's value can be overvalued or undervalued, and there should be equal chances for both, regardless of the price-to-earnings ratio.

And if that holds true, then no specific group of investors should be able to consistently identify undervalued or overvalued stocks using any particular investment strategy.😁

Of course, all of that theory goes out the window if someone is sitting on insider information.

I was only bringing up movies because they deal with attempts to manipulate the market...

Now, regarding what you said about price, I think you're absolutely spot on. I’d probably just add that market prices are ultimately driven by buyer psychology. You could have some fundamental analyst walking on his hands claiming a certain stock is worth way more, but if the market doesn't see it, well, it doesn't matter.

That's why I tend to rule out computer programs as being the "magic key" to trading. Sure, a program can beat a chess grandmaster at a game where the rules and goals are set, but I haven't seen a program that can calculate that, say, NVIDIA will hit a specific price in six months. How is a program supposed to know if some mess is going to break out in the Gulf of Mexico, or if some team of scientists is suddenly going to announce they've cracked cold fusion?

Honestly, I'd sooner bet on a psychic in Milan than on some algorithm. 😁

Jack Alvarez25 said:Basically, a simple plan za zavrsiti u zatvor.

Like I’ve mentioned before, computers just execute their tasks based on the parameters they're given, they don't exactly go browsing through IDF websites or scrolling through Facebook profiles, I guess.

And even if news like that actually moves the needle, it’s usually just a flash in the pan if the info turns out to be fake. For instance, regarding oil, there was that false report about those missile launches toward Syria about 15 days ago. It only lasted maybe ten minutes, and the price jumped a couple percent at most. Once you factor in all those brokerage commissions, you might actually end up losing money, especially if you spread that trade out over a bunch of tiny transactions.

Trust me, some of the sharpest minds alive are working these markets today, and honestly, it's incredibly hard to pull a fast one on them.😢

They might not be the smartest people alive,
but they've somehow managed to get their hands on all the capital and now they're just out there calling all the shots. 😁

Charles Lopez3 said:They might not be the smartest people alive,
but they've somehow managed to get their hands on all the capital and now they're just out there calling all the shots. 😁

I mean, when you think about it, the people who have actually managed to build up some real capital usually end up handing that money over to someone else to trade on the market for them. That’s really what I’m talking about—those specific individuals. And since there is just so much money moving around the market these days, I guess it isn't exactly a struggle for them to pay someone who actually has the brains and the intuition to handle it properly.

If I actually managed to become some kind of top-tier meteorologist, I guess you have to wonder if they wouldn't eventually just pull me aside from some big investment fund or something to forecast the weather down in Florida while those orange groves are growing, right? It seems like that would be one of those jobs where the stakes are actually pretty high, I suppose, since everything depends on whether the frost hits or not.

I mean, if you were actually a top-tier agronomist—one of those experts they fly out to oversee massive operations—don't you think some investment fund would eventually reach out and ask you to step in? I guess they’d want you to run a full crop yield assessment for their orange groves based on those recent forecasts, right? It seems like that would be pretty much standard procedure if they wanted to make sure their projections weren't totally off base.

I mean, if you were actually some kind of top-tier analyst, wouldn't they be beating down your door to have you run projections on orange prices based on the harvest yields? I guess it's just one of those things where people assume that if you're good at numbers, you should be able to predict every little thing, like how much fruit is going to be hitting the shelves in Florida next season. Maybe they would, or maybe they wouldn't, because honestly, even with all the data in the world, nature can be pretty unpredictable, don't you think?

I mean, I don't know, maybe it’s just because people like that are already on the payroll for those hedge funds, I guess.

Just please, don't even get me started on asking what oranges have to do with the market, because I honestly don't have the energy to sit here and try to dig through the data to figure out exactly how many billions upon billions of dollars that specific sector is actually worth.

Jack Alvarez25 said:I was only bringing up movies because they deal with attempts to manipulate the market...

Now, regarding what you said about price, I think you're absolutely spot on. I’d probably just add that market prices are ultimately driven by buyer psychology. You could have some fundamental analyst walking on his hands claiming a certain stock is worth way more, but if the market doesn't see it, well, it doesn't matter.

That's why I tend to rule out computer programs as being the "magic key" to trading. Sure, a program can beat a chess grandmaster at a game where the rules and goals are set, but I haven't seen a program that can calculate that, say, NVIDIA will hit a specific price in six months. How is a program supposed to know if some mess is going to break out in the Gulf of Mexico, or if some team of scientists is suddenly going to announce they've cracked cold fusion?

Honestly, I'd sooner bet on a psychic in Milan than on some algorithm. 😁

I think we're talking about investor psychology (what you call buyer behavior), and naturally, that dictates the strategies people choose.
While I don't believe computers are the ultimate authority—in my view, they aren't "trading" on their own, but rather executing based on preset buy or sell parameters, since I find it hard to believe they attempt any kind of actual forecasting, especially regarding the "distant" future even a few days out—I still wouldn't dismiss them entirely.

In that sense (without saying they shouldn't be singled out or excluded), I'd offer one example under one specific condition:
The condition being that price fluctuations are essentially stochastic in nature.

Here is an example: I recently read that police computers in the USA can predict when and where crimes will occur with impressive accuracy. The whole concept relies on experience—essentially historical data on crime patterns and locations combined with the laws of probability. Naturally, these computers house massive amounts of information that gets updated daily, using probability to calculate the likelihood of a crime repeating. I think we can all agree that crime (its frequency, type, timing, location, and method) behaves like a stochastic variable. It has reached the point where computers can predict the timing and location of events, allowing police to intervene preventatively, and the results have been anything but negligible.

My take is that in the long run (if not already!), computers might be able to predict not necessarily exact prices, but perhaps the best buy/sell ranges—maybe starting as advisory tools, and who knows what later... Certainly, the variables influencing price movements are far more complex and numerous than the patterns used to track crime, but hey, "they laughed at the guy who invented penicillin," too.

The last person I recall actually pulling off a similar stunt on the stock market was some British trader who somehow managed to get wind before anyone else that Napoleon had suffered a crushing defeat in battle.