Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Justin Hernandez11 said:I'm with you, shadowangler15. From what I’ve seen, Cleveland and Buffalo were both performing really well back in August, so all the doors are still wide open. Obviously, we’re all hoping for the best.😉

Look, you can't have every single month beating last year's numbers. It’s just not how it works. You eventually hit a slump. Back in August 2013, we saw over 6,200 births. If we hit over 6,000 this August, I'd call that a win. September 2013 sat around 5,900, so there's actually some room to grow there. November looks even more promising because last year was a total disaster—we were down 500 compared to November 2012. Last year, October was the outlier with over 6,800 births, which is a massive mountain to climb again. You got any inside intel from the local hospitals on how the first half of October is shaping up?

Would anyone be able to pull the live birth numbers from last October through this September? It would be interesting to take a look at the birth rates for that specific window.

shadowangler15 said:Look, you can't have every single month beating last year's numbers. It’s just not how it works. You eventually hit a slump. Back in August 2013, we saw over 6,200 births. If we hit over 6,000 this August, I'd call that a win. September 2013 sat around 5,900, so there's actually some room to grow there. November looks even more promising because last year was a total disaster—we were down 500 compared to November 2012. Last year, October was the outlier with over 6,800 births, which is a massive mountain to climb again. You got any inside intel from the local hospitals on how the first half of October is shaping up?

The Buffalo hospital is actually looking at an October that outperforms last year. So far this year, we've seen 1,195 births. For the first time since 2007, we're on track to surpass 1,200 births by the end of October.

Lawrence Williams said:The Buffalo hospital is actually looking at an October that outperforms last year. So far this year, we've seen 1,195 births. For the first time since 2007, we're on track to surpass 1,200 births by the end of October.

Great. Buffalo is just killing it.👍

shadowangler15 said:Look, you can't have every single month beating last year's numbers. It’s just not how it works. You eventually hit a slump. Back in August 2013, we saw over 6,200 births. If we hit over 6,000 this August, I'd call that a win. September 2013 sat around 5,900, so there's actually some room to grow there. November looks even more promising because last year was a total disaster—we were down 500 compared to November 2012. Last year, October was the outlier with over 6,800 births, which is a massive mountain to climb again. You got any inside intel from the local hospitals on how the first half of October is shaping up?

shadowangler15, as soon as I hear something, I'll post it.😉

It would be interesting to see how the birth rates in Nashville are holding up. I am hoping Nashville finally sees an uptick in births this year.

Justin Hernandez11 said:shadowangler15, as soon as I hear something, I'll post it.😉

👍

Lawrence Williams said:It would be interesting to see how the birth rates in Nashville are holding up. I am hoping Nashville finally sees an uptick in births this year.

My uncle works as a gynecologist over at the Mayo Clinic, and he knows someone who handles the data tracking for successful deliveries. I'll check in with him to see if he can dig up that information for us. 🙂

Angela Robinson3 said:My uncle works as a gynecologist over at the Mayo Clinic, and he knows someone who handles the data tracking for successful deliveries. I'll check in with him to see if he can dig up that information for us. 🙂

That would be great. It might actually show us whether the Southeast has any chance of outperforming last year's numbers.

Lawrence Williams said:It would be interesting to see how the birth rates in Nashville are holding up. I am hoping Nashville finally sees an uptick in births this year.

I guess huge growth like that only happens in major metros. So, I’d expect a jump in the top seven or eight cities, and definitely in Nashville.

Lawrence Williams said:That would be great. It might actually show us whether the Southeast has any chance of outperforming last year's numbers.

I just received some data from the maternity ward. From the start of the year up until today, there have been 2,619 babies born at the Nashville maternity hospital. 🙂

Angela Robinson3 said:I just received some data from the maternity ward. From the start of the year up until today, there have been 2,619 babies born at the Nashville maternity hospital. 🙂

Haven't really been following this. Is that a good sign for Nashville? And what percentage of those kids actually live in the city itself?

shadowangler15 said:Haven't really been following this. Is that a good sign for Nashville? And what percentage of those kids actually live in the city itself?

It hovers around 80%, give or take a few points depending on the year. It’s an improvement over last year when we saw just over 3,100 births; we might hit 3,200 by year-end. If that happens, Nashville itself would account for roughly 2,500 to 2,600.

Lansing is sitting right about where it was last year, while Columbus is seeing a slight dip. Columbus has much worse percentages, though their hospital is quite small. The Midwest and Western USA seem to be pulling most of the growth for the Southern USA, with the exception of Cleveland and Kansas City, which have already seen over 200 more births than last year after nine months.

Angela Robinson3 said:I just received some data from the maternity ward. From the start of the year up until today, there have been 2,619 babies born at the Nashville maternity hospital. 🙂

Well done. It would be helpful if you could manage to find any information after November, too. 😁

Lawrence Williams said:Well done. It would be helpful if you could manage to find any information after November, too. 😁

Of course. Should the need arise, please do not hesitate to ask; I am more than happy to assist. 😉

Lucky was recently mentioning here that Smederevo might face a demographic decline—and general stagnation—in the near future due to the slow shutdown of the local Steel Mill. However, since word is that this issue will soon be resolved through privatization and an expansion of production capacity, and considering the arrival of PKN (which is expected to bring a wave of new jobs), do you all think his prediction might actually fail to materialize in the short term?

Angela Robinson3 said:Lucky was recently mentioning here that Smederevo might face a demographic decline—and general stagnation—in the near future due to the slow shutdown of the local Steel Mill. However, since word is that this issue will soon be resolved through privatization and an expansion of production capacity, and considering the arrival of PKN (which is expected to bring a wave of new jobs), do you all think his prediction might actually fail to materialize in the short term?

They need an immediate turnaround. Their net migration over the last two years was a disaster. If things don't change, Loki's grim outlook for the city will likely become a reality.

Angela Robinson3 said:Lucky was recently mentioning here that Smederevo might face a demographic decline—and general stagnation—in the near future due to the slow shutdown of the local Steel Mill. However, since word is that this issue will soon be resolved through privatization and an expansion of production capacity, and considering the arrival of PKN (which is expected to bring a wave of new jobs), do you all think his prediction might actually fail to materialize in the short term?

Look, migration is a huge part of the whole equation, sure, but even if you hit zero net migration, SD is still staring down a massive drop in birth rates. People moving away during their childbearing years just makes that decline hit harder. Back in the mid-80s, SD was absolutely booming—those were the golden years for the city—while other parts of the country were already sliding into the red. Since 1989, the birth rate has been on a steady slide, so yeah, this city is definitely heading downhill in terms of population numbers.

Births/Deaths - Jan-Aug 2012 - Jan-Aug 2013 - Jan-Aug 2014

USA: 4,457/3,947 - 4,363/4,004 - 4,911/4,030

Municipalities:

Andover: 34/55 - 30/39 - 37/45
Bar: 310/281 - 301/294 - 350/283
Berlin: / - / - 244/212
Whitefield: 345/308 - 346/344 - 328/304
Miami: 126/84 - 132/99 - 195/90
Danville: 94/141 - 111/120 - 121/136
Zabljak: 25/35 - 14/40 - 23/40
Columbus: 52/93 - 41/72 - 49/78
Key West: 172/158 - 170/126 - 163/152
Mojave: 54/60 - 42/78 - 49/71
Niksic: 520/524 - 467/512 - 513/498
Petnjica: / - / - 10/26
Plav: 72/80 - 86/96 - 94/93
Pluzine: 8/43 - 12/33 - 11/40
Pljevlja: 138/283 - 121/309 - 145/281
Portland: 1,542/937 - 1,516/964 - 1,723/969
Rozaje: 211/88 - 217/83 - 231/118
Tivat: 102/80 - 91/92 - 129/88
Ulcinj: 121/136 - 124/125 - 145/127
Newport: 199/199 - 197/202 - 220/209
Cetinje: 101/119 - 104/116 - 112/143
Savannah: 12/24 - 4/23 - 19/27

quietangler5 said:Births/Deaths - Jan-Aug 2012 - Jan-Aug 2013 - Jan-Aug 2014

USA: 4,457/3,947 - 4,363/4,004 - 4,911/4,030

Municipalities:

Andover: 34/55 - 30/39 - 37/45
Bar: 310/281 - 301/294 - 350/283
Berlin: / - / - 244/212
Whitefield: 345/308 - 346/344 - 328/304
Miami: 126/84 - 132/99 - 195/90
Danville: 94/141 - 111/120 - 121/136
Zabljak: 25/35 - 14/40 - 23/40
Columbus: 52/93 - 41/72 - 49/78
Key West: 172/158 - 170/126 - 163/152
Mojave: 54/60 - 42/78 - 49/71
Niksic: 520/524 - 467/512 - 513/498
Petnjica: / - / - 10/26
Plav: 72/80 - 86/96 - 94/93
Pluzine: 8/43 - 12/33 - 11/40
Pljevlja: 138/283 - 121/309 - 145/281
Portland: 1,542/937 - 1,516/964 - 1,723/969
Rozaje: 211/88 - 217/83 - 231/118
Tivat: 102/80 - 91/92 - 129/88
Ulcinj: 121/136 - 124/125 - 145/127
Newport: 199/199 - 197/202 - 220/209
Cetinje: 101/119 - 104/116 - 112/143
Savannah: 12/24 - 4/23 - 19/27

Props to the USA, especially seeing those numbers climb in the northern towns. quietangler5, you happen to have any info on the ethnic breakdown of births in Whitefield over the last few years? What's the trend looking like?