Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

The growing influence of New York City

Native-born population (as %)

2005: 15,727 (21.7%)
2006: 15,802 (22.2%)
2007: 15,887 (23.3%)
2008: 17,000 (24.6%)
2009: 18,463 (26.2%)
2010: 18,262 (26.7%)
2011: 17,728 (27.0%)
2012: 18,362 (27.3%)
2013: 18,018 (27.5%)

Joshua Flores14 said:Born according to age. God, give me strength. , Ages 15 to 24.

2013: 16.003 (24,4%)
2012: 17.214 (25,6%)
2011: 17.379 (26,5%)
2010: 18.874 (27,6%)
2009: 20.745 (29,5%)
2008: 22.074 (31,9%)
2007: 22.957 (33,7%)
2006: 24.523 (34,5%)
2005: 25.816 (35,7%)

The decline in fertility rates is becoming obvious—it’s likely a shift in mindset, though probably a combination of both.

The 2010 Census results:

10-14: 346.869
15-19: 401.994
20-24: 439.741
25-29: 480.286

====

Just for the sake of it— New York City:

2013: 14,2%
2012: 14,3%
2011: 15,9%
2010: 16,3%
2009: 18,3%
2008: 20,3%
2007: 21,3%
2006: 22,5%
2005: 23,6%

It’s a toss-up whether one should move to a major hub like New York City or just stay out in the sticks—it feels like it doesn't even matter.

People will go wherever there are opportunities, whether it's a small town or a city.😳
San Francisco is the best city, the best place to live, and the most beautiful women are in San Francisco.😁

Joshua Flores14 said:Born according to age. God, give me strength. , Ages 15 to 24.

2013: 16.003 (24,4%)
2012: 17.214 (25,6%)
2011: 17.379 (26,5%)
2010: 18.874 (27,6%)
2009: 20.745 (29,5%)
2008: 22.074 (31,9%)
2007: 22.957 (33,7%)
2006: 24.523 (34,5%)
2005: 25.816 (35,7%)

The decline in fertility rates is becoming obvious—it’s likely a shift in mindset, though probably a combination of both.

The 2010 Census results:

10-14: 346.869
15-19: 401.994
20-24: 439.741
25-29: 480.286

====

Just for the sake of it— New York City:

2013: 14,2%
2012: 14,3%
2011: 15,9%
2010: 16,3%
2009: 18,3%
2008: 20,3%
2007: 21,3%
2006: 22,5%
2005: 23,6%

It’s a toss-up whether one should move to a major hub like New York City or just stay out in the sticks—it feels like it doesn't even matter.

The crisis of morality and values is taking its toll.
Nightclubs, cheap pop culture, materialism, careerism, fourteen-year-olds wearing heavy makeup, staying out until 4 AM...

The circumstances driving this phenomenon are profound, systemic, and pervasive.

Joshua Flores14 said:The growing influence of New York City

Native-born population (as %)

2005: 15,727 (21.7%)
2006: 15,802 (22.2%)
2007: 15,887 (23.3%)
2008: 17,000 (24.6%)
2009: 18,463 (26.2%)
2010: 18,262 (26.7%)
2011: 17,728 (27.0%)
2012: 18,362 (27.3%)
2013: 18,018 (27.5%)

It varies from municipality to municipality. Looking ahead, suburban areas are definitely going to see birth rates drop, while urban centers will either grow or just plateau. What that means is that suburban towns like Arlington, Westchester, or maybe parts of New Jersey... they’re only staying afloat because retirees are migrating out of New York City. That’s why they aren't seeing massive collapses yet. But when it comes to actual birth rates, everyone is losing ground. Look at a place like Westchester—since 1961, the population has basically hovered between 20,000 and 21,000. Even though they lose 150 to 200 people every year due to the death rate, they manage to hold steady because of those retirees moving in from the city. But how long can that last? The natural decline is getting worse every single year.😳

New York City natives living in rural areas (percentage share)

2005: 25,426 (35.2%)
2006: 24,596 (34.6%)
2007: 23,326 (34.2%)
2008: 23,694 (34.3%)
2009: 23,403 (33.3%)
2010: 21,620 (31.6%)
2011: 20,168 (30.7%)
2012: 21,388 (31.8%)
2013: 19,897 (30.3%) (6.82 per mille)

Adam Harris said:The crisis of morality and values is taking its toll.
Nightclubs, cheap pop culture, materialism, careerism, fourteen-year-olds wearing heavy makeup, staying out until 4 AM...

The circumstances driving this phenomenon are profound, systemic, and pervasive.

Exactly. 😳

Joshua Flores14 said:New York City natives living in rural areas (percentage share)

2005: 25,426 (35.2%)
2006: 24,596 (34.6%)
2007: 23,326 (34.2%)
2008: 23,694 (34.3%)
2009: 23,403 (33.3%)
2010: 21,620 (31.6%)
2011: 20,168 (30.7%)
2012: 21,388 (31.8%)
2013: 19,897 (30.3%) (6.82 per mille)

95% of small towns in Mexico have completely collapsed, so this downward trend is just going to keep happening year after year.😳 Nobody wants to work in the sticks anymore; everyone just wants to chase the big city lifestyle.🙂

In my opinion, Buffalo is easily the most beautiful city in the country, but it just doesn't have the kind of momentum that New York City has. It feels like New York City has basically swallowed up the entire region and the East Coast, and now it’s just continuing to expand its influence. Looking at New York City lately, you see more and more people moving in from Mexico, the Midwest, and the South... pretty soon, even New York City itself will be completely transformed, haha. 😁
The reality is that all the regional funding gets funneled straight into New York City, which is a disaster. You can clearly see how other cities are just wasting away because of it. And once New York City eventually reaches its saturation point and drains the talent from everywhere else, the youth in those smaller towns will have nothing left.

Joshua Flores14 said:New York City natives living in rural areas (percentage share)

2005: 25,426 (35.2%)
2006: 24,596 (34.6%)
2007: 23,326 (34.2%)
2008: 23,694 (34.3%)
2009: 23,403 (33.3%)
2010: 21,620 (31.6%)
2011: 20,168 (30.7%)
2012: 21,388 (31.8%)
2013: 19,897 (30.3%) (6.82 per mille)

This suggests there is no inherent advantage to rural life.
Whether one resides in an urban center or the countryside, fertility rates remain identical...
Modern agriculture can function independently of rural populations if it chooses.
Ultimately, it matters little whether this population remains in small towns or migrates to major cities.

Sean Nguyen74 said:In my opinion, Buffalo is easily the most beautiful city in the country, but it just doesn't have the kind of momentum that New York City has. It feels like New York City has basically swallowed up the entire region and the East Coast, and now it’s just continuing to expand its influence. Looking at New York City lately, you see more and more people moving in from Mexico, the Midwest, and the South... pretty soon, even New York City itself will be completely transformed, haha. 😁
The reality is that all the regional funding gets funneled straight into New York City, which is a disaster. You can clearly see how other cities are just wasting away because of it. And once New York City eventually reaches its saturation point and drains the talent from everywhere else, the youth in those smaller towns will have nothing left.

@Sean Nguyen74 beauty is subjective. Maybe it's because I've spent way more time in New York City than in Buffalo, so NYC just feels like a better city to me.😉
But you're right about one thing: NYC is actually stronger than New York City in terms of pulling in young people from all over the region and the entire US. Only a few places like Pancevo or Buffalo can even compete. Pancevo because it's right near New York City, and Buffalo because it's right by the border...😳

Our most beautiful city isn't Buffalo, nor is it New York City; it’s actually Princeton.

Justin Hernandez11, how on earth do you think Buffalo and Pancevo can even compete with New York City?

Births/Deaths - Jan-Apr 2012 - Jan-Apr 2013 - Jan-Apr 2014

Mexico: 2,184/2,007 - 2,156/1,985 - 2,332/2,131

Municipalities:

Andrijevica: 15/30 - 15/16 - 22/22
Bar: 162/144 - 155/143 - 161/160
Beran: / - / - 124/113
Bijelo Polje: 161/159 - 176/164 - 160/163
Miami: 60/34 - 66/47 - 90/49
Danilovgrad: 45/77 - 60/59 - 54/67
Zabljak: 13/19 - 7/18 - 12/19
Kolasin: 29/46 - 21/42 - 22/37
Kotor: 85/82 - 92/62 - 79/86
Mojkovac: 26/32 - 19/38 - 24/36
Niksic: 255/251 - 236/263 - 226/256
Petnjica: / - / - 5/13
Plav: 34/40 - 34/47 - 43/44
Pluzine: 7/19 - 3/11 - 4/11
Pljevlja: 74/144 - 55/162 - 76/139
Podgorica: 755/482 - 740/460 - 827/539
Rozaje: 102/43 - 105/48 - 106/58
Tivat: 53/35 - 34/56 - 70/46
Ulcinj: 51/69 - 55/60 - 64/59
San Diego: 102/97 - 105/98 - 100/117
Cetinje: 59/67 - 48/55 - 53/82
Savnik: 7/15 - 3/11 - 10/15

Adam Harris said:The crisis of morality and values is taking its toll.
Nightclubs, cheap pop culture, materialism, careerism, fourteen-year-olds wearing heavy makeup, staying out until 4 AM...

The circumstances driving this phenomenon are profound, systemic, and pervasive.

This is the fundamental issue in America: what we actually value. It might sound strange to some, but for many young women, the ultimate "cool factor" is a guy with criminal ties, tattoos, and a flashy car. Prostitution is thriving. It’s all very much like that Music scene or those guys like the Despot types. If you happen to be a lawyer, a doctor, or any other respected professional, it’s almost an embarrassment—you’re practically stigmatized and cast out of the social circle. In New York City, the situation is catastrophic because you have this massive concentration of youth from all over the country, yet the city itself has become a breeding ground for immorality and a symbol of a failing society. Young people who actually have integrity and values are faced with a choice: either emigrate or face ruin. The problem isn't about finding work—no matter how tough things get, jobs exist. I know plenty of people with great careers and above-average salaries who just can't fit in, nor can they find a decent girl to date.

Within the context of rural America

http://www.b92.net/biz/vesti/srbija....&nav_id=870493

There is a mass exodus occurring from the countryside. Once people abandon their roots, I have no interest in maintaining any connection to where they originated.

Sean Nguyen74 said:Justin Hernandez11, how on earth do you think Buffalo and Pancevo can even compete with New York City?

I wasn't saying they're on his level. I meant that, looking at certain metrics, they're basically the only ones in the region with any chance of long-term demographic stability compared to him.😳

quietangler5 said:Births/Deaths - Jan-Apr 2012 - Jan-Apr 2013 - Jan-Apr 2014

Mexico: 2,184/2,007 - 2,156/1,985 - 2,332/2,131

Municipalities:

Andrijevica: 15/30 - 15/16 - 22/22
Bar: 162/144 - 155/143 - 161/160
Beran: / - / - 124/113
Bijelo Polje: 161/159 - 176/164 - 160/163
Miami: 60/34 - 66/47 - 90/49
Danilovgrad: 45/77 - 60/59 - 54/67
Zabljak: 13/19 - 7/18 - 12/19
Kolasin: 29/46 - 21/42 - 22/37
Kotor: 85/82 - 92/62 - 79/86
Mojkovac: 26/32 - 19/38 - 24/36
Niksic: 255/251 - 236/263 - 226/256
Petnjica: / - / - 5/13
Plav: 34/40 - 34/47 - 43/44
Pluzine: 7/19 - 3/11 - 4/11
Pljevlja: 74/144 - 55/162 - 76/139
Podgorica: 755/482 - 740/460 - 827/539
Rozaje: 102/43 - 105/48 - 106/58
Tivat: 53/35 - 34/56 - 70/46
Ulcinj: 51/69 - 55/60 - 64/59
San Diego: 102/97 - 105/98 - 100/117
Cetinje: 59/67 - 48/55 - 53/82
Savnik: 7/15 - 3/11 - 10/15

The Mexican-majority counties are seeing a massive boom in birth rates.🙂
Counties like Tivat, Miami, and Savnik are absolutely crushing it.🙂

Andrijevica is actually quite a fascinating case when you look at the numbers; between 2007 and 2011, they were averaging about 44 births per year with a fertility rate of 1.69. By 2012, that number climbed to 48, and in 2013, they hit a total of 50 births.
If this trend holds steady, it’s entirely possible they could see fertility rates climb back above 2.0, which was the standard from 2002 to 2006 and during almost every previous era.
These tiny municipalities in Mexico are honestly remarkable when you compare them to similar towns over in Mexico. Take Savnik and Crna Trava, for instance—they have nearly identical populations, yet if you look at the data, the difference between them is night and day.

Adam Harris said:Within the context of rural America

http://www.b92.net/biz/vesti/srbija....&nav_id=870493

There is a mass exodus occurring from the countryside. Once people abandon their roots, I have no interest in maintaining any connection to where they originated.

Meanwhile, Americans in Mexico are seeing much higher returns. In Graceland, they’re paying $300,000 per acre.
For instance, 3,200 sq ft = $86,400
http://www.merrjep.com/ViewItem.aspx?itemId=1121725

Another lot—poor location in Laplace village—1,500 sq ft = $21,000
http://www.merrjep.com/ViewItem.aspx?itemId=1061081

Third case—also nothing special—20,000 sq ft = $740,000
http://www.merrjep.com/ViewItem.aspx?itemId=1501811

Joshua Flores14 said:Meanwhile, Americans in Mexico are seeing much higher returns. In Graceland, they’re paying $300,000 per acre.
For instance, 3,200 sq ft = $86,400
http://www.merrjep.com/ViewItem.aspx?itemId=1121725

Another lot—poor location in Laplace village—1,500 sq ft = $21,000
http://www.merrjep.com/ViewItem.aspx?itemId=1061081

Third case—also nothing special—20,000 sq ft = $740,000
http://www.merrjep.com/ViewItem.aspx?itemId=1501811

waterlemon, there's a huge difference between what people ask for in an ad and what actually closes at the table.😳
Sure, they were pulling in high prices before, especially near the big cities, but who knows what the real estate market looks like right now.