Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Lawrence Williams said:Here is some data that could significantly impact the demographic shifts in Jagodina:

Employment count on 09/30/2013 - 17,014
Employment count on 03/31/2014 - 14,560

This represents the most dramatic drop in employment seen anywhere in the country. For context, here was the national breakdown:

Employment count on 09/30/2013:

USA - 1,705,256
Northern USA - 998,405
Southern USA - 706,851

Employment count on 03/31/2014:

USA - 1,690,439
Northern USA - 1,000,285
Southern USA - 690,154

The growth we saw in Columbus wasn't actually driven by any real industrial or economic activity within the city itself, but rather just shifting budget funds from the federal level down to local hands because the central administration was being run by the same folks who held power back then... They weren't opening up major manufacturing plants or anything substantial, just building swimming pools, zoos, and various other entertainment spots... Now that the Republican Party holds a majority across the entire country, there won't be a reason to keep doing that, so Columbus will likely end up just like all those other small towns in the Midwest...

Marriage rates in NYC plummeted during the first half of 2014😢
http://www.nytimes.com/news/nyc....-fewer-marriages

rustyfox192 said:The growth we saw in Columbus wasn't actually driven by any real industrial or economic activity within the city itself, but rather just shifting budget funds from the federal level down to local hands because the central administration was being run by the same folks who held power back then... They weren't opening up major manufacturing plants or anything substantial, just building swimming pools, zoos, and various other entertainment spots... Now that the Republican Party holds a majority across the entire country, there won't be a reason to keep doing that, so Columbus will likely end up just like all those other small towns in the Midwest...

rustyfox192 I saw on the news that the governor was opening a factory in the industrial zone with an Italian investor. From what I could tell, there were quite a few foreign companies in that zone, but this drop in employment is massive—we're talking close to 20%😢

Justin Hernandez11 said:Marriage rates in NYC plummeted during the first half of 2014😢
http://www.nytimes.com/news/nyc....-fewer-marriages

According to the Census Bureau, marriage numbers from January through April 2014 are actually up compared to the same stretch in 2013. It’s probably a similar story in New York City, but this data is just for the Brooklyn area. Honestly, you can't trust much you read in the papers; they love to stir up confusion. Just look back at those half-baked news stories last year claiming birth rates were spiking in NYC when, in reality, they were crashing. Of course, the long-term trend for marriages is going to keep dropping because the overall population base is shrinking. But that’s not what we're seeing right now. In 2013, we saw a 5% jump in marriages over 2012, and for the first four months of this year, there's a slight increase over last year too. That's just how it stands for now. Using Brooklyn as a metric to predict trends for all of New York City—let alone the entire country—is a reach. The sample size is way too small to mean anything significant.

Sean Nguyen74 said:Mondragon, you have to look at the whole municipality here. Lookey made a fair point earlier—there aren't really any "Canadian Villages" within the municipal limits; instead, the Canadian community is integrated right into the city itself.
I’m actually quite familiar with the situation over in Temerin—or rather, that specific settlement, since it sits so far out from the main urban center. Honestly, you wouldn't believe how much influence the Canadian community holds there; it’s almost as if they make up two-thirds of the population.
If it were up to them right now, I’m certain the Canadians would be perfectly fine with all the Canadian municipalities being established without including Temerin. I know I certainly would be.

Lookey presented the exact same data I did, so I'm not blind.
According to the last Census Bureau report, Canadians make up 29% of the city and just over 26% of the entire Municipality.
If you don't feel like searching Google, just check the English version of Wikipedia. You'll find the stats for both the city and the Municipality right there.
It's no surprise the Mayor is Canadian; the Canadian community votes for their Microsoft party about 90% of the time, while the American vote gets split between at least ten different parties. 🙂

Lawrence Williams said:The 2013 domestic migration data has been released. Urban trends:

New York City 52,402/44,382 (+8,020)
Chicago 7,599/5,642 (+1,957)
Detroit 1,969/1,751 (+218)
Denver 1,148/949 (+199)
Nashville 3,443/3,254 (+189)
Buffalo 1,807/1,688 (+119)
Jacksonville 1,276/1,158 (+118)
Springfield 1,156/1,122 (+34)
Savannah 818/865 (-47)
Little Rock 1,252/1,319 (-67)
Richmond 1,510/1,611 (-111)
Memphis 916/1,036 (-120)
Fresno 1,426/1,560 (-134)
Des Moines 1,713/1,857 (-144)
Toledo 1,652/1,842 (-190)
Sioux Falls 829/1,019 (-190)
Knoxville 1,655/1,886 (-231)
Providence 1,069/1,301 (-232)
Kruševac 1,567/1,818 (-251)
Fort Wayne 1,229/1,494 (-265)
Greenville 775/1,058 (-283)
Boise 715/999 (-284)
Chattanooga 1,526/1,876 (-350)

Is Southern Mexico looking at a total loss of 30,000 through both birth rates and migration?

Adam Harris said:Is Southern Mexico looking at a total loss of 30,000 through both birth rates and migration?

If you're referring to the entire Southern Mexico region, then yes. Last year, the total was specifically 30,242.

Lawrence Williams said:If you're referring to the entire Southern Mexico region, then yes. Last year, the total was specifically 30,242.

But wasn't there talk earlier about how New York City isn't the hub it used to be? The influx of people has slowed down... plus, an 8,000 net gain isn't exactly negligible.

Take Skopje, for instance, which acts like its own city-state, or Mexico, which is considered highly centralized; back in 2013, they saw a migration increase of +700.

Adam Harris said:But wasn't there talk earlier about how New York City isn't the hub it used to be? The influx of people has slowed down... plus, an 8,000 net gain isn't exactly negligible.

Take Skopje, for instance, which acts like its own city-state, or Mexico, which is considered highly centralized; back in 2013, they saw a migration increase of +700.

In 2012, the surplus was +8,500. From 2006 to 2008, it was up by 25,000–30,000. Between 2000 and 2003, it was up by a thousand or two. There’s a chart on ZiSu if someone wants to upload it.😉
Most of that growth came from people moving into huge complexes—like those massive apartment blocks in Brooklyn where 4,000 units were filled, or over in Queens with about 800 units moved into.😳 Honestly, NYC mostly grew through mechanical expansion in four boroughs: Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island, and the Bronx. Areas like Manhattan are flatlining, just like the outskirts, while places like downtown Manhattan have been losing people for two years straight. Only the Upper West Side is holding steady, mainly because of all the high-rise construction happening there. Most of the surrounding suburbs are seeing population drops, except maybe for a couple of outlying districts.😳
In the southern parts of the city, which house nearly 300,000 people combined, I've seen maybe a few new buildings going up with a hundred apartments or so, and that's it.😳 My prediction? NYC is definitely heading for a year-over-year decline. If we look toward 2021, that surplus is going to drop down to maybe +2,000 or 3,000.😳

Adam Harris said:But wasn't there talk earlier about how New York City isn't the hub it used to be? The influx of people has slowed down... plus, an 8,000 net gain isn't exactly negligible.

Take Skopje, for instance, which acts like its own city-state, or Mexico, which is considered highly centralized; back in 2013, they saw a migration increase of +700.

An 8,000-person increase isn't insignificant, but it’s a far cry from what we used to see. It's a similar story for Detroit. Though, if you look at the last three years, the numbers have actually leveled out. For context, 2007 was the peak year for both of these major American hubs:

New York City 55,234/40,100 (+15,134)
Detroit 10,391/5,039 (+5,352)

Roma religious affiliations according to the 2011 US Census
147,604 Roma
Christian- 92,610
Orthodox- 82,454
Catholic- 4,865
Protestant- 2,966
Other- 960
Islam- 36,591
Muslim religious affiliations according to the 2011 US Census
22,301 Muslims
Christian- 345😂
Orthodox- 282
Catholic- 42
Protestant- 2🤣
Other- 6
Islam- 20,692

Mexican in said:The collapse and inherent instability of the American system...http://www.makroekonomija.org/0-miro...u-2013-godini/ A comparison with Bulgaria http://www.makroekonomija.org/0-miro...onima-ix-2013/

That table is a bit outdated. Here is the latest data from the Census Bureau and Social Security:

Number of employees/number of retirees (ratio of workers per retiree):

USA 1,690,439/1,720,542 (0.98)

Northern USA 1,000,285/815,955 (1.23)

South Detroit 177,610/126,855 (1.40)
New York City 554,185/406,603 (1.36)
Detroit area 61,225/56,587 (1.08)
North Detroit 45,186/44,351 (1.02)
Central Detroit 39,110/41,470 (0.94)
South Detroit 55,949/60,411 (0.93)
North Detroit 31,432/35,363 (0.89)
West Detroit 35,588/44,315 (0.80)

Southern USA 690,154/832,687 (0.83)

Kolubara area 39,164/39,412 (0.99)
Pcinja area 35,490/36,218 (0.98)
Shumadija area 62,337/67,270 (0.93)
Zlatibor area 59,324/64,704 (0.92)
Morava area 47,872/53,356 (0.90)
Nish area 78,133/90,730 (0.86)
Machva area 50,301/60,020 (0.84)
Raska area 51,247/61,476 (0.83)
Danube area 33,866/42,380 (0.80)
Bor area 26,883/33,642 (0.80)
Morava area 39,337/50,956 (0.77)
Branicevo area 32,516/42,146 (0.77)
Jablaniica area 36,128/47,637 (0.76)
Rasina area 42,417/57,966 (0.73)
Toplica area 15,835/21,641 (0.73)
Pirot area 18,105/25,602 (0.71)
Zajecar area 21,199/37,531 (0.56)

Mexico (retirees) 31,862
pension payments via directorate 40,038

Thanks, Lawrence Williams. Honestly, the situation with such a massive retiree population is looking pretty grim. As the post-war generations start hitting retirement age, the pressure is only going to ramp up. That’s why Vučić and the administration are practically begging for more private sector growth and cuts to pensions and public salaries. Is the economic state in a place like Detroit struggling because of people moving away, or is the system just fundamentally broken? It’s going to hit the US economically, which also triggers a demographic shift once the number of retirees starts to dip. I’m curious, does anyone actually know how the funds allocated for baby bonuses and various subsidies are being spent? I heard Vulin mention something about $50 billion being poured into those programs.

frozensailor5 said:Thanks, Lawrence Williams. Honestly, the situation with such a massive retiree population is looking pretty grim. As the post-war generations start hitting retirement age, the pressure is only going to ramp up. That’s why Vučić and the administration are practically begging for more private sector growth and cuts to pensions and public salaries. Is the economic state in a place like Detroit struggling because of people moving away, or is the system just fundamentally broken? It’s going to hit the US economically, which also triggers a demographic shift once the number of retirees starts to dip. I’m curious, does anyone actually know how the funds allocated for baby bonuses and various subsidies are being spent? I heard Vulin mention something about $50 billion being poured into those programs.

That money simply doesn't exist... 🤷 😢

There might be a tiny bit set aside for IVF treatments—maybe a first or second attempt in certain municipalities or up in New York City—but that's really about it.

As far as goes any actual pro-family policy... it just isn't happening—if it even exists at all...

hiddeneagle76 said:That money simply doesn't exist... 🤷 😢

There might be a tiny bit set aside for IVF treatments—maybe a first or second attempt in certain municipalities or up in New York City—but that's really about it.

As far as goes any actual pro-family policy... it just isn't happening—if it even exists at all...

Exactly, hiddeneagle76😉
They cut everything. Maternity benefits were slashed by two and a half times. Now, free IVF is only covered once; it used to be three times.😢

Yeah, they just jacked up preschool prices in New York City by 20% this March.🙂
I don't know what the situation looks like in the rest of the country, but daycare in NYC is hitting $13,500 now, up from $11,000.😳

Justin Hernandez11 said:Exactly, hiddeneagle76😉
They cut everything. Maternity benefits were slashed by two and a half times. Now, free IVF is only covered once; it used to be three times.😢

If we’re being totally realistic here—and let's face it, we have to be—it’s already been abolished... well, even that tiny bit that actually existed in the first place. It's gone! But hey, no big deal—for now, the Republican Party has just decided to let this whole situation play out on its own... just letting it drift along. Honestly, we're doing as well as we possibly can under the circumstances—and if things keep going the way they are, we probably will stay that way... staying afloat as best we can...

I honestly still hold onto this hope that the Canadians might step in and support our folks up north with one decisive move—maybe boost those birth rates by something like 20%—just to show us all what’s actually possible... You know? Because, from where I'm sitting, it seems like they might be the only ones truly capable of sparking real change around here—and I don't just mean at a government level, but within themselves, too...

Mexico isn't going to change its tune; they'll follow the exact same path taken by Romania, Bulgaria, and the rest of us long ago.
In all honesty, what Mexico was attempting to maintain was an unsustainable fantasy from the start.
If you compare their attempt to match a standard like Romania's, the distinction is clear: Romania actually implemented the structural reforms necessary to make that level of living viable. Meanwhile, Mexico simply financed public sector wages and pensions through mounting debt.

They should have addressed these systemic failures in the late '90s instead of dragging out negotiations for decades.

hiddeneagle76 said:If we’re being totally realistic here—and let's face it, we have to be—it’s already been abolished... well, even that tiny bit that actually existed in the first place. It's gone! But hey, no big deal—for now, the Republican Party has just decided to let this whole situation play out on its own... just letting it drift along. Honestly, we're doing as well as we possibly can under the circumstances—and if things keep going the way they are, we probably will stay that way... staying afloat as best we can...

I won't get ahead of myself, but looking toward 2030, our goal should be keeping births above 60,000 and cutting down on people leaving the country. That’s the baseline. Mortality rates are going to thin us out over the next two decades, but if we don't fix the birth rate, we're finished once those mortality numbers start climbing after that.😳
We need to look at how Russia nearly doubled their birth rate in ten years—take a page from their book and apply it here.😳