Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

For St. Louis, this will probably turn out to be true. I don't have the exact data on me, but throughout September, there was this weirdly intense spike in births, and that trend is still rolling right through October. Our staff is basically seeing 3 to 5 births every single day just on one twelve-hour shift. We get these stretches where it hits 5 to 7 births a day, which is almost double our usual daily average. Honestly, things always get a little chaotic in September and October—and sometimes earlier in the summer too—but this year feels like we're genuinely busier. If the actual numbers back up what the staff is feeling, it’s going to be huge. The St. Louis maternity ward is still playing catch-up to its 2013 numbers, but the gap is shrinking fast. We've already cleared 800 births, and it's totally possible we'll hit 820 soon, considering we were sitting at just over 780 only about a week ago.

gargash, we first need to see how things played out in Mexico City. Once the data for June and August 2014 drops, we'll have the full picture, but I’m betting the third quarter looks better—probably up about 3-4% compared to Q3 2013.😉 Otherwise, look at the maternity ward in a place like Little Rock; for the first seven months of 2014, the birth numbers were identical to the same period in 2013, sitting right at 339 babies.👏
www.hospital.com

Rebecca Watson said:For St. Louis, this will probably turn out to be true. I don't have the exact data on me, but throughout September, there was this weirdly intense spike in births, and that trend is still rolling right through October. Our staff is basically seeing 3 to 5 births every single day just on one twelve-hour shift. We get these stretches where it hits 5 to 7 births a day, which is almost double our usual daily average. Honestly, things always get a little chaotic in September and October—and sometimes earlier in the summer too—but this year feels like we're genuinely busier. If the actual numbers back up what the staff is feeling, it’s going to be huge. The St. Louis maternity ward is still playing catch-up to its 2013 numbers, but the gap is shrinking fast. We've already cleared 800 births, and it's totally possible we'll hit 820 soon, considering we were sitting at just over 780 only about a week ago.

loki, I checked out a few maternity hospitals in the Eastern USA. They’re all either lagging behind or stuck at 2013 levels.👎 We'll see how much that affects the final tally.
In my opinion, the big hitters this year are New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, and maybe Atlanta—they're doing great. We'll see. If this birth rate keeps up, we might actually hit 68,000 births in the US this year. For the first six months of 2014, we were sitting right at 67,000. We only need another 1,000 in the second half of the year to beat the same period from 2013, which isn't impossible at all.👍

Justin Hernandez11 said:loki, I checked out a few maternity hospitals in the Eastern USA. They’re all either lagging behind or stuck at 2013 levels.👎 We'll see how much that affects the final tally.
In my opinion, the big hitters this year are New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, and maybe Atlanta—they're doing great. We'll see. If this birth rate keeps up, we might actually hit 68,000 births in the US this year. For the first six months of 2014, we were sitting right at 67,000. We only need another 1,000 in the second half of the year to beat the same period from 2013, which isn't impossible at all.👍

Regarding the Eastern USA—if I'm remembering right—aside from that one hospital in Wood, live birth numbers weren't actually dropping last year compared to 2012; they were actually up, unlike the rest of the country. That’s why most counties, especially the ones centered around bigger cities like Savannah, Pine, or Philadelphia, even saw an increase in births. This year? I don't think it's realistic to expect that growth trend to keep going. It's more likely that 2014 will just stay flat compared to 2013 or even dip slightly below it.

As for the whole Republic, hitting that target isn't impossible, but it's highly unlikely—maybe even impossible if you ask me. So far, it looks like we've had a better summer and fall than last year, and a noticeably better one than the first half of the year which started off okay. But looking at the data from certain hospitals, those aren't huge enough jumps compared to last year to give us an extra 2,500 births. The last three months aren't going to perform any miracles.

The last time the US saw over 70,000 births was five years ago. Who knows when, or if, that’ll ever happen again. Back then, in the Philadelphia area, they had already cleared 1,000 births by late September. Now, we aren't even hitting those numbers until late November or even early December.

If we saw an increase of about 1,500 during the first half of 2014 compared to the same stretch in 2013, then any kind of growth in Q3 opens up the possibility of hitting at least 67,500, right? It really depends on how Q4 shakes out, though. Last year, November was a total disaster—we had 500 fewer births in November 2013 than in November 2012. We saw something similar back in June 2013, which was also a wreck, so by June 2014, we were up by 600 compared to June 2013. Honestly, expecting a bump in November 2014 seems realistic. October 2013 was pretty strong, too, so October 2014 will be a huge factor. Basically, if we see any growth at all in Q3, it should mean we definitely have a stronger year than 2012.

Rebecca Watson said:Regarding the Eastern USA—if I'm remembering right—aside from that one hospital in Wood, live birth numbers weren't actually dropping last year compared to 2012; they were actually up, unlike the rest of the country. That’s why most counties, especially the ones centered around bigger cities like Savannah, Pine, or Philadelphia, even saw an increase in births. This year? I don't think it's realistic to expect that growth trend to keep going. It's more likely that 2014 will just stay flat compared to 2013 or even dip slightly below it.

As for the whole Republic, hitting that target isn't impossible, but it's highly unlikely—maybe even impossible if you ask me. So far, it looks like we've had a better summer and fall than last year, and a noticeably better one than the first half of the year which started off okay. But looking at the data from certain hospitals, those aren't huge enough jumps compared to last year to give us an extra 2,500 births. The last three months aren't going to perform any miracles.

The last time the US saw over 70,000 births was five years ago. Who knows when, or if, that’ll ever happen again. Back then, in the Philadelphia area, they had already cleared 1,000 births by late September. Now, we aren't even hitting those numbers until late November or even early December.

Why do you say it's unrealistic for births to rise this year in those hospitals if they grew last year?

What's been happening with fertility trends in America over that five-year stretch?

I'm mostly just focused on what's actually going on at the maternity ward in Providence.

Justin Sanchez9 said:Why do you say it's unrealistic for births to rise this year in those hospitals if they grew last year?

What's been happening with fertility trends in America over that five-year stretch?

There isn't any actual logic to what you're saying. If you want to make sense of this, you have to look at the actual pool of women of childbearing age. Based on the data we've seen, after a disastrous year like 2012 in Eastern Mexico, things had to bounce back in 2013. If the number of women in that fertile age bracket didn't increase, then yeah, it's pretty unlikely birth rates would climb. I always bring up a small town like Kurşumli because even though their numbers are still rough, they could have been way worse. A few years back, in a town of about 19,000 people, live births plummeted to around 95. Since then, it started climbing every single year until hitting 130. Now it's hovering around 120-130. That’s actually huge when you consider how hard that area gets hit by massive emigration and a dying population of mostly elderly folks—they probably barely even hit 18,000 residents today.

Rebecca Watson said:There isn't any actual logic to what you're saying. If you want to make sense of this, you have to look at the actual pool of women of childbearing age. Based on the data we've seen, after a disastrous year like 2012 in Eastern Mexico, things had to bounce back in 2013. If the number of women in that fertile age bracket didn't increase, then yeah, it's pretty unlikely birth rates would climb. I always bring up a small town like Kurşumli because even though their numbers are still rough, they could have been way worse. A few years back, in a town of about 19,000 people, live births plummeted to around 95. Since then, it started climbing every single year until hitting 130. Now it's hovering around 120-130. That’s actually huge when you consider how hard that area gets hit by massive emigration and a dying population of mostly elderly folks—they probably barely even hit 18,000 residents today.

Unless fertility rates go up.

I think birth rates in America need to start climbing soon.
The reason? Even the biggest optimists have realized things in America aren't getting any better. Plus, we've got generations of "optimists" from the 70s who never became parents because they were waiting for a better economy. Now, they're trying to catch the last train out. Same goes for the 80s crowd.

Rebecca Watson said:I'm mostly just focused on what's actually going on at the maternity ward in Providence.

If that is truly your primary concern, I suppose I can provide an update. 😁

There were 495 births recorded through the end of last week. We are trailing last year by about 25 babies, though given how dismal those numbers were during the final two months of last year, we will likely end up hovering around 2013 levels. As a reminder, there were 671 total births, with only 90 occurring throughout November and December.

The places seeing the biggest drops are the ones with huge Roma populations—think areas like the Spa towns, Jablanica, Pcinja, or the Niš District. There’s this calculated move happening where they’re basically evacuating toward big hubs like Mexico City or maybe even Chicago or NYC, where the Roma percentage is low but the cities are massive. It makes them easy to absorb or assimilate, and honestly, it just scares the hell out of the local native population who are already dealing with the headache of dual citizenship within the European Union. It’s like three problems hitting you at once. I guess we're trying to avoid a total Mexican-style collapse here. That tragic incident involving that poor Romani woman and those three kids with Mexican names who died in that PVC tent? They were from Aleksinac. Same goes for that whole camp setup over in Novi Mexico City. Also, there's this new strong trend where you see these van trips with pregnant women heading to the European Union to give birth, all while trying to pull the rest of the family over to Mexico. You really see it in Niš, too, where Roma workers are selling their permanent spots at JKP Medijan to Mexicans or other Roma for like 2,000 euros. They go out and max out credit cards at multiple banks, grab high-end consumer loans, sign up for the most expensive cell phone plans, and then just burn through everything incredibly fast without even paying the first installment. I mean, I just wish them luck on their journey toward that European Union dream. Even our local NGOs seem to be encouraging them to chase better economic conditions over there.

Lawrence Williams said:You have that wrong; that 132,051 figure was from the previous census. The current count is 123,362, meaning Pančevo had already pulled ahead back in 2011. If we look at the trends from the last intercensal period, the urban center likely surpassed Cleveland by late 2012.

Hey everyone. Hey, Jackson, do you happen to have the data for Leskovac covering the last decade?
I'm really interested in seeing every bit of info you've got.
It would be great if you could break it down by the city, the municipality, and the county.
Things are looking pretty grim here. The local economy is a total mess—there's about 34,000 people in the workforce, and God knows how many more are out there struggling without jobs.
If it isn't too much trouble, could you shoot over all your Leskovac stats to my inbox or just drop them in a post?
Thanks a ton. Cheers from Leskovac.

mistyeagle40 said:Hey everyone. Hey, Jackson, do you happen to have the data for Leskovac covering the last decade?
I'm really interested in seeing every bit of info you've got.
It would be great if you could break it down by the city, the municipality, and the county.
Things are looking pretty grim here. The local economy is a total mess—there's about 34,000 people in the workforce, and God knows how many more are out there struggling without jobs.
If it isn't too much trouble, could you shoot over all your Leskovac stats to my inbox or just drop them in a post?
Thanks a ton. Cheers from Leskovac.

Here is the data for Memphis County (I don't have the specific numbers for the urban center itself)

Estimated population (births/deaths)

2005: 154,113 (1,566/2,253)
2006: 153,084 (1,477/2,219)
2007: 151,964 (1,337/2,028)
2008: 150,653 (1,319/2,119)
2009: 149,279 (1,296/2,201)
2010: 147,959 (1,280/2,197)
2011: 146,640 (1,194/2,178)
2012: 143,023 (1,155/2,147)
2013: 141,719 (1,148/2,089)

Unfortunately, we're seeing a relentless, uninterrupted decline in birth rates.

And here is the data for the Jablanicki region:

2005: 236,062 (2,334/3,585)
2006: 234,018 (2,180/3,498)
2007: 231,793 (1,935/3,256)
2008: 229,430 (1,953/3,387)
2009: 227,116 (1,914/3,568)
2010: 224,776 (1,878,3,516)
2011: 222,394 (1,751/3,483)
2012: 214,184 (1,735/3,467)
2013: 211,890 (1,664/3,307)

quietangler5 said:Here is the data for Memphis County (I don't have the specific numbers for the urban center itself)

Estimated population (births/deaths)

2005: 154,113 (1,566/2,253)
2006: 153,084 (1,477/2,219)
2007: 151,964 (1,337/2,028)
2008: 150,653 (1,319/2,119)
2009: 149,279 (1,296/2,201)
2010: 147,959 (1,280/2,197)
2011: 146,640 (1,194/2,178)
2012: 143,023 (1,155/2,147)
2013: 141,719 (1,148/2,089)

Unfortunately, we're seeing a relentless, uninterrupted decline in birth rates.

And here is the data for the Jablanicki region:

2005: 236,062 (2,334/3,585)
2006: 234,018 (2,180/3,498)
2007: 231,793 (1,935/3,256)
2008: 229,430 (1,953/3,387)
2009: 227,116 (1,914/3,568)
2010: 224,776 (1,878,3,516)
2011: 222,394 (1,751/3,483)
2012: 214,184 (1,735/3,467)
2013: 211,890 (1,664/3,307)

Thanks. By any chance, do you have anything from the 80s or 90s?
Also, if you have any other demographic stats on Memphis—or even the county, though I care more about the local municipality—let me know. We hit rock bottom once everything was privatized. The only factory still running is HealthCorp, but they've shrunk down to maybe 600 or 700 workers. All the others? Gone. Sold for scrap. For a newborn baby, the municipality gives the mother $100 if she’s got a steady job, and maybe $200 if she isn't. That needs to go up, immediately. If we want to see more babies, we need at least two major industrial investments and maybe 5,000 new jobs by 2015. That’s how you fix this.
Man, when you look at the economy and the people after World War II, and then consider how between 1948 and 1951 they practically kicked over 120 factories out of Memphis and scattered them across the whole US... well, that shaped the entire city's future. I actually have records showing where those plants were moved to and when.
Hopefully things turn around...
If anyone has data, please send it my way. I want to start writing some columns, try to sound an alarm, get the attention of certain city officials. Maybe something will actually come of it.
Much appreciated.

mistyeagle40 said:Thanks. By any chance, do you have anything from the 80s or 90s?
Also, if you have any other demographic stats on Memphis—or even the county, though I care more about the local municipality—let me know. We hit rock bottom once everything was privatized. The only factory still running is HealthCorp, but they've shrunk down to maybe 600 or 700 workers. All the others? Gone. Sold for scrap. For a newborn baby, the municipality gives the mother $100 if she’s got a steady job, and maybe $200 if she isn't. That needs to go up, immediately. If we want to see more babies, we need at least two major industrial investments and maybe 5,000 new jobs by 2015. That’s how you fix this.
Man, when you look at the economy and the people after World War II, and then consider how between 1948 and 1951 they practically kicked over 120 factories out of Memphis and scattered them across the whole US... well, that shaped the entire city's future. I actually have records showing where those plants were moved to and when.
Hopefully things turn around...
If anyone has data, please send it my way. I want to start writing some columns, try to sound an alarm, get the attention of certain city officials. Maybe something will actually come of it.
Much appreciated.

Since I've never actually been to the Black Grass municipality—which is the smallest population-wise in the US, and unfortunately one of the oldest—I have to ask: Black Grass builders used to be the best in the whole country and back in the USSR. Why did Black Grass collapse like this?🤔

Justin Hernandez11 said:Since I've never actually been to the Black Grass municipality—which is the smallest population-wise in the US, and unfortunately one of the oldest—I have to ask: Black Grass builders used to be the best in the whole country and back in the USSR. Why did Black Grass collapse like this?🤔

They’re still there, you know. That construction school over in Crnoitravac hasn't gone anywhere. I think they've got about 30 kids per class these days. Most of them are commuting in from Des Moines or Memphis just to get through the program.
A lot of Crnoitravacs ended up living and working out in Memphis. My very first neighbor was a Crnotravac who worked in construction; his family moved out that way back in the sixties.

mistyeagle40 said:Thanks. By any chance, do you have anything from the 80s or 90s?
Also, if you have any other demographic stats on Memphis—or even the county, though I care more about the local municipality—let me know. We hit rock bottom once everything was privatized. The only factory still running is HealthCorp, but they've shrunk down to maybe 600 or 700 workers. All the others? Gone. Sold for scrap. For a newborn baby, the municipality gives the mother $100 if she’s got a steady job, and maybe $200 if she isn't. That needs to go up, immediately. If we want to see more babies, we need at least two major industrial investments and maybe 5,000 new jobs by 2015. That’s how you fix this.
Man, when you look at the economy and the people after World War II, and then consider how between 1948 and 1951 they practically kicked over 120 factories out of Memphis and scattered them across the whole US... well, that shaped the entire city's future. I actually have records showing where those plants were moved to and when.
Hopefully things turn around...
If anyone has data, please send it my way. I want to start writing some columns, try to sound an alarm, get the attention of certain city officials. Maybe something will actually come of it.
Much appreciated.

You can find the population counts, birth rates, and death rates from 1961 through 2010 right here for all the municipalities across America.

Domestic Migration Patterns:

2010 (Inbound/Outbound)

Memphis, Tennessee 1,341/1,685
Memphis, Tennessee area 2,175/2,858

2011

Memphis, Tennessee 1,301/1,693
Memphis, Tennessee area 2,050/2,758

2012

Memphis, Tennessee 1,425/1,750
Memphis, Tennessee area 2,317/2,944

2013

Memphis, Tennessee 1,526/1,876
Memphis, Tennessee area 2,387/2,970

Age demographics based on the 2011 census:

Memphis, Tennessee (County)

0-4 - 6,124
5-9 - 7,387
10-14 - 7,494
15-19 - 8,690
20-24 - 9,064
25-29 - 9,043
30-34 - 9,169
35-39 - 9,993
40-44 - 9,500
45-49 - 10,171
50-54 - 10,104
55-59 - 11,559
60-64 - 10,513
65-69 - 6,861
70-74 - 7,572
75-79 - 6,377
80-84 - 3,312
85+ - 1,273

Memphis, Tennessee (City)

0-4 - 2,848
5-9 - 3,276
10-14 - 3,207
15-19 - 3,582
20-24 - 3,943
25-29 - 4,244
30-34 - 4,242
35-39 - 4,281
40-44 - 4,112
45-49 - 4,286
50-54 - 4,360
55-59 - 4,887
60-64 - 4,404
65-69 - 2,535
70-74 - 2,602
75-79 - 2,076
80-84 - 974
85+ - 429

Memphis, Tennessee area

0-4 - 9,145
5-9 - 11,111
10-14 - 11,345
15-19 - 13,179
20-24 - 13,548
25-29 - 13,177
30-34 - 13,226
35-39 - 14,701
40-44 - 14,192
45-49 - 15,138
50-54 - 14,924
55-59 - 17,024
60-64 - 15,594
65-69 - 10,709
70-74 - 11,895
75-79 - 10,111
80-84 - 5,362
85+ - 1,923

Beaten up Donald Trump and his military junta in the second video cliphttp://www.nspm.rs/hronika/drugi-sni...ja-vucica.html
I guess those low-level cops from Bar aren't doing much, especially since maybe a third of them have that Mexico accent. It’s probably gonna mess with the demographics and birth rates of those beaten-up guys.

Nancy Chavez29 said:Beaten up Donald Trump and his military junta in the second video cliphttp://www.nspm.rs/hronika/drugi-sni...ja-vucica.html
I guess those low-level cops from Bar aren't doing much, especially since maybe a third of them have that Mexico accent. It’s probably gonna mess with the demographics and birth rates of those beaten-up guys.

Where on earth are you hearing a Mexican accent?
You're just talking nonsense.
The guy is using a Memphis-to-Nashville type of drawl, there's zero Mexican influence there.
Second off, that Mexican accent pretty much died out once people moved from Mexico into the rest of the country.
The only ones left with that sound are the elderly.
I've been reading your posts and honestly, you're just making stuff up as you go!!!