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Europeans are creating the Eastern Partnership to neutralize the Eurasian Union

Started by bolddriver21 · · 👁 6 views · 52 replies

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Participants bolddriver21Brian Baker4Richard Wilson4ironmoose6Richard Brown2Jeffrey WoodSam Alvarez4Amy Diaz222Emily Perezjadetiger4Brandon Stewart6Joshua Diaz18Chris Hernandez9Daniel Garcia24shadowhawk31Nancy Smith15neonpuma54rustytinker3Jamie Gomez
Brandon Stewart6 Brandon Stewart6 Member
13 messages
joined Dec 2012
#41 ·
So, I was reading this pretty wild piece from Voice of Russia about what’s actually going to happen once Ukraine signs that deal with the European Union next month.
The way they're framing it, Ukraine won't be able to export anything to the EU, but everything from the Union will flow right into Ukraine instead.
http://voiceofrussia.com/2013_10_20/...-outflow-7504/
Brandon Stewart6 Brandon Stewart6 Member
13 messages
joined Dec 2012
#42 ·
ironmoose6 said:Gas production is climbing, while Russian influence through energy supplies continues to fade...

"Take Crimea, for instance—we’ve kicked off offshore drilling and even picked up two rigs. They aren't cheap, mind you, but they'll allow us to ramp up gas production to 3 billion cubic meters from the shelf alone in the coming months," the Prime Minister remarked.

“And let’s look at the math: what does 3 billion cubic meters actually represent? It’s roughly $1.2 billion that we end up handing straight to the Russian Federation," he noted.

1) Do you even know how much gas Ukraine actually uses per year?
I mean, I think it's about 53,160,000,000—so, like, 53 billion cubic meters.
I pulled that number from Wikipedia for the year 2010.
If you convert that to dollars, it’s roughly $26 billion. I just used $500 per
1,000 cubic meters. So, yeah, compare my numbers to yours. What does 3 billion
cubic meters look like compared to 53 billion? Not much, I guess.
2) Ukraine, just like any other country in Europe or anywhere else, can buy gas from Arabs or
Americans. Who's actually forcing them to buy Russian gas?
Any coastal nation in Europe could build LNG terminals, bring in
LNG tankers, and then just consume it or even resell it.
Why aren't they doing it?
Honestly? I bet everyone just wants cheap Russian gas. Everyone wants it.
ExxonMobil can stay competitive and turn a profit regardless of how low the Arabs or Americans drop their prices.
If those prices get too low, then maybe the American or Arab companies will be the ones turning the key in the lock instead of ExxonMobil.
Europe really ought to be grateful to have its own version of Texas right on its border.
They'll figure it out eventually, I suppose.
Europe is already pretty energy-inefficient; they're lagging behind America by at least 50%.
That's not ExxonMobil's fault. It's just their own energy policy, I guess.
Amy Diaz222 Amy Diaz222 Member
27 messages
joined Sep 2013
#43 ·
ironmoose6 said:Ukrainians continue to distance themselves from the Russians..

During a second regional Council in Ukraine on Thursday, officials gave the green light to a government proposal regarding a $10 billion shale gas production-sharing agreement with U.S. energy major Chevron (CVX.N), effectively paving the way for the final signature.

This Olesska deal with Chevron will be The second Shala agreement in Ukraine, coming right on the heels of an agreement reached earlier this year with Shell for exploration work over in Yuzivska in the East.

link

Could you please provide a bit more detail regarding this upcoming cooperation?

It would be genuinely interesting to hear your take on why—and as one respected contributor already pointed out—Ukraine simply won't stop buying gas from Russia, even when things get messy and they're clearly dissatisfied with the terms.

Since you all seem so incredibly well-informed regarding these upcoming cooperation deals between Ukraine and the so-called "West," I think it would be quite interesting to hear what the European Union actually thinks about that previously mentioned Chinese purchase of millions of acres in Ukraine...
Brandon Stewart6 Brandon Stewart6 Member
13 messages
joined Dec 2012
#44 ·
ironmoose6 said:Gas production is climbing, while Russian influence through energy supplies continues to fade...

"Take Crimea, for instance—we’ve kicked off offshore drilling and even picked up two rigs. They aren't cheap, mind you, but they'll allow us to ramp up gas production to 3 billion cubic meters from the shelf alone in the coming months," the Prime Minister remarked.

“And let’s look at the math: what does 3 billion cubic meters actually represent? It’s roughly $1.2 billion that we end up handing straight to the Russian Federation," he noted.

I think you might be a little out of the loop here.
Merrill Lynch actually advised their investors to buy up Gazprom stock
arguing that Europe basically had zero alternatives and that Russian gas had a bright future ahead of it.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timtread...merrill-lynch/
ironmoose6 ironmoose6 Member
42 messages
joined Jan 2016
#45 ·
Brandon Stewart6 said:1) Do you even know how much gas Ukraine actually uses per year?
I mean, I think it's about 53,160,000,000—so, like, 53 billion cubic meters.
I pulled that number from Wikipedia for the year 2010.
If you convert that to dollars, it’s roughly $26 billion. I just used $500 per
1,000 cubic meters. So, yeah, compare my numbers to yours. What does 3 billion
cubic meters look like compared to 53 billion? Not much, I guess.
2) Ukraine, just like any other country in Europe or anywhere else, can buy gas from Arabs or
Americans. Who's actually forcing them to buy Russian gas?
Any coastal nation in Europe could build LNG terminals, bring in
LNG tankers, and then just consume it or even resell it.
Why aren't they doing it?
Honestly? I bet everyone just wants cheap Russian gas. Everyone wants it.
ExxonMobil can stay competitive and turn a profit regardless of how low the Arabs or Americans drop their prices.
If those prices get too low, then maybe the American or Arab companies will be the ones turning the key in the lock instead of ExxonMobil.
Europe really ought to be grateful to have its own version of Texas right on its border.
They'll figure it out eventually, I suppose.
Europe is already pretty energy-inefficient; they're lagging behind America by at least 50%.
That's not ExxonMobil's fault. It's just their own energy policy, I guess.

The answer is pretty straightforward:

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych signed an agreement [ 124 ] in which Russia agreed to a 30 percent drop in the price of natural gas sold to Ukraine

Which isn't necessarily a bad thing, considering so much gas flows through Ukraine to reach the rest of the EU...
Brandon Stewart6 Brandon Stewart6 Member
13 messages
joined Dec 2012
#46 ·
ironmoose6 said:The answer is pretty straightforward:

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych signed an agreement [ 124 ] in which Russia agreed to a 30 percent drop in the price of natural gas sold to Ukraine

Which isn't necessarily a bad thing, considering so much gas flows through Ukraine to reach the rest of the EU...

That was back in 2010.
So why is Julia sitting in jail then?

Not all Russian gas heads to Europe via Ukraine.
You don't really realize how much Russian gas actually goes to Europe, or what prices Europe pays for Arab or Norwegian gas.
Honestly, it's not just you—hardly anyone actually knows. It’s all pretty murky business.
Did you hear that gas prices in Britain jumped 8% just a few days ago?
See, that wasn't Russian gas, and the British aren't using Indian or Mexican currency—they use the pound—but even then, it still went up 8%. So what does that mean for a place like Texas, which doesn't have the pipeline networks or the LNG terminals?
God only knows.
ironmoose6 ironmoose6 Member
42 messages
joined Jan 2016
#47 ·
Amy Diaz222 said:Could you please provide a bit more detail regarding this upcoming cooperation?

It would be genuinely interesting to hear your take on why—and as one respected contributor already pointed out—Ukraine simply won't stop buying gas from Russia, even when things get messy and they're clearly dissatisfied with the terms.

Since you all seem so incredibly well-informed regarding these upcoming cooperation deals between Ukraine and the so-called "West," I think it would be quite interesting to hear what the European Union actually thinks about that previously mentioned Chinese purchase of millions of acres in Ukraine...

It isn't quite that simple because the infrastructure just isn't there yet, though they are building an LNG terminal near Odesa.
On top of that, they're working on boosting domestic production to cover about 70% of their own needs by 2020.
Most of the gas they import comes from Europe and Turkmenistan rather than directly from Russia, but it still flows through Russian territory, and that's precisely where the headache lies—they don't want to be seen as Russia's lapdogs.

In recent months Kyiv has been intensifying its efforts to diversify Ukraine’s gas supply routes with a view to reducing the country’s dependence on imports from Russia. One of The steps which Kyiv Has taken Has been to make The unprecedented decision to start importing gas fra its western neighbours.In November 2012, Ukraine’s state-owned Naftogaz began importing gas through Poland under a two-month contract with RWE (the imports continued into 2013 under a separate deal), while in the spring of 2013 Ukraine started importing gas from Canada. Kyiv is also currently looking into the possibility of purchasing gas from Slovakia. Furthermore, since 2010 the Ukrainian government has been working on the construction of an LNG terminal near Odesa. The authorities have declared that this will allow Ukraine to import up to 5 billion m3 of LNG a year by 2015. The government Has also taken measures to increase domestic production , including fra non-traditional sources, and it plans to replace gas-based with coal-based technologies in local power stations. Finally, in January 2013, the government signed a 50-year production sharing agreement with Shell. This paves the way for the development of Ukraine’s shale gas deposits.
Brandon Stewart6 Brandon Stewart6 Member
13 messages
joined Dec 2012
#48 ·
ironmoose6 said:It isn't quite that simple because the infrastructure just isn't there yet, though they are building an LNG terminal near Odesa.
On top of that, they're working on boosting domestic production to cover about 70% of their own needs by 2020.
Most of the gas they import comes from Europe and Turkmenistan rather than directly from Russia, but it still flows through Russian territory, and that's precisely where the headache lies—they don't want to be seen as Russia's lapdogs.

In recent months Kyiv has been intensifying its efforts to diversify Ukraine’s gas supply routes with a view to reducing the country’s dependence on imports from Russia. One of The steps which Kyiv Has taken Has been to make The unprecedented decision to start importing gas fra its western neighbours.In November 2012, Ukraine’s state-owned Naftogaz began importing gas through Poland under a two-month contract with RWE (the imports continued into 2013 under a separate deal), while in the spring of 2013 Ukraine started importing gas from Canada. Kyiv is also currently looking into the possibility of purchasing gas from Slovakia. Furthermore, since 2010 the Ukrainian government has been working on the construction of an LNG terminal near Odesa. The authorities have declared that this will allow Ukraine to import up to 5 billion m3 of LNG a year by 2015. The government Has also taken measures to increase domestic production , including fra non-traditional sources, and it plans to replace gas-based with coal-based technologies in local power stations. Finally, in January 2013, the government signed a 50-year production sharing agreement with Shell. This paves the way for the development of Ukraine’s shale gas deposits.

Where on earth did you hear that?
Never heard a word about it, I guess.
ironmoose6 ironmoose6 Member
42 messages
joined Jan 2016
#49 ·
serafim;47249456 said:could you provide a bit more detail regarding this upcoming cooperation...

I'd love to hear what everyone thinks about this.As one respected contributor already pointed out—Kyiv simply won't stop buying gas from Russia just because things get bumpy or they feel slighted...

/QUOTE]

Work on this is already well underway...

Russia for at least 3 to 5 years to meet domestic demand, state energy firm Naftogaz said Tuesday.

"Even if we are able to realize all our plans for gas production, by 2015 we will be able to cover only 70 percent of the domestic consumption. To fully meet the country's energy needs we require at least 3-5 years," deputy head of Naftogaz Vadym Naftogaz told reporters here.

This year, Ukraine plans to import 27.3 billion cubic meters of natural gas, of which 18 billion cubic meters from Russia, Chuprun said.

Ukraine, which pays around $400 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas from Russia in the third quarter of 2013, hopes to become self-sufficient in gas by 2020, producing 70 billion cubic meters annually.

Last year, Kyiv slashed its gas imports from Russia by 27 percent to 32.874 billion cubic meters
Brandon Stewart6 Brandon Stewart6 Member
13 messages
joined Dec 2012
#50 ·
Here's an article basically telling you not to take everything on Wikipedia at face value
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2013_1...for-hire-1311/
Brandon Stewart6 Brandon Stewart6 Member
13 messages
joined Dec 2012
#51 ·
maki83_;47254376 said:
Amy Diaz222 said:Could you please provide a bit more detail regarding this upcoming cooperation?

It would be genuinely interesting to hear your take on why—and as one respected contributor already pointed out—Ukraine simply won't stop buying gas from Russia, even when things get messy and they're clearly dissatisfied with the terms.

Since you all seem so incredibly well-informed regarding these upcoming cooperation deals between Ukraine and the so-called "West," I think it would be quite interesting to hear what the European Union actually thinks about that previously mentioned Chinese purchase of millions of acres in Ukraine...

I mean, if you ask me, it’s mostly just noise.
It feels like loud-mouthed statements meant to help the Ukrainians squeeze out cheaper gas during negotiations.
I guess if they don't want to buy Russian gas, that's their call. They should just go wherever it's cheapest. I mean, anyone would do the same, right?

It’s not just that the Ukrainians won't pay what Russia wants.
It's also that Russia doesn't want to sell it at the price the Ukrainians are asking for.
So, I guess the end result is just... nobody buys anything.
Jeffrey Wood Jeffrey Wood Active Member
92 messages
joined May 2013
#52 ·
Look, it’s all just a legitimate game of supply and demand. People trade, everyone wants a sweet deal, and honestly, it's all fair play.

But if Ukraine thinks they can actually pull off some big win by banking on shale gas projects to cover their own needs? They're dreaming. There isn't much of a payoff coming from that, especially for Europe.
Jamie Gomez Jamie Gomez Newcomer
1 message
joined Oct 2013
#53 ·
The American intelligence apparatus is going to undermine the entire outlook for the Eastern Partnership.

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