Gold: Past, Present, and Future

Anthony Evans78 said:Look, I’m not trying to be rude, but anyone can claim "it’s going up this much" or "it’s dropping that far."
What actually matters is that technical analysis is useless when you're dealing with the precious metals market. You might as well throw your charts out the window. What's the point of staring at old data and trying to predict the future based on what's already happened? It’s basically just reading tea leaves or pulling tarot cards. Especially in a low-volume, manipulated market like silver—where price action often has nothing to do with actual supply and demand. When you have millions of shorted ounces and massive margin hikes hitting the tape, how is a line on a graph supposed to help you?
Did you somehow know the correction was coming from $1,920 down to $1,520? Sorry, but I don't think anyone saw that coming, not even BlackRock or Ben Bernanke 🙂
If Ben Bernanke is so irrelevant, then why are they constantly suppressing the price? It’s hard to argue he doesn't matter when he serves as the ultimate indicator for a dying dollar and the inevitable burst of the massive US Treasury bubble.

Everything you're saying holds water, but look, our friend 😍 Zippy is just applying his own expertise... you can't really fault him for that...
It’s easy for us to talk big when we're just buying physical metal—you wrap it up, tuck it away, and forget where you put it... but actively trading on these massive, volatile global exchanges isn't exactly a walk in the park...🤣

And regarding the market itself—it isn't just silver being manipulated; absolutely everything is subject to play... from the smallest commodity to major industrial assets...😂

That’s exactly why I walked away from trading five years ago. 😉
Back then, you could still trade with some sense, but today? It’s nothing more than a glorified casino. 🙂

Anthony Evans78 said:That’s exactly why I walked away from trading five years ago. 😉
Back then, you could still trade with some sense, but today? It’s nothing more than a glorified casino. 🙂

And to top it off, they basically hand you a revolver with five bullets already in the chamber... 😂

Melissa Sanchez17 said:Melissa Sanchez17 said on Sept 20, 2011. I'm looking for someone who actually knows their way around a chart to weigh in here—am I reading this right? Is gold about to take a dive? My gut tells me we're looking at a correction driven by
a total meltdown across the European Union markets or maybe even the USA... honestly, we might be seeing a repeat of that 2008 mess...

Alright, first off, let me give myself a pat on the back for calling that one correctly 😁. Now, I’d love for someone who's actually glued to the tickers (shout out to masimo1, mizuzul, and the rest of the crew) to break down what's actually triggering this correction, since I'm buried in work right now and can't keep an eye on things.

Check it out—our buddy Melissa Sanchez17 called this September correction coming!

Melissa Sanchez17 said:Check it out—our buddy Melissa Sanchez17 called this September correction coming!

That guy clearly isn't a permabull. Pay attention: true permabulls never see these kinds of corrections coming. They’ll stay glued to their positions all the way through the peak of the final bubble a year from now. Permabulls only see green. That's just how it works—as long as we're riding this bull market, they'll be blind to the downside.

Anthony Evans78 said:Anthony Evans78, how many times are you going to flip-flop? 🙂
I know it's tough to swallow, but you have to realize that TA in the PM market is about as useful as a screen door on a submarine.

Haha, I wish I could actually agree with you for once!
But hey, the wheel keeps turning...

What difference do technical analyses, facts, or indicators even make when we're talking about speculative buying? Absolutely none.
Look, it's not like you're buying from bots; you're buying from other lunatics. They just happen to be named John, Paul, Cham, or Mao instead. You buy when you think it's a good deal; they buy when they think it's a good deal. There's zero logic or analysis involved here.
All five of you have the exact same goal: buy low and sell high.

I'm no trader, but sometimes I feel the itch. Ever since I started following the gold market—which hasn't been very long, honestly—this whole thing reminds me of a game of ping pong. It just bounces between 1500 and 1900. Part of me wants to (speculatively) buy at 1500 and just sit on it for a couple of months.
It would be pretty ironic if I actually made money on that, only to watch the bubble burst and lose every cent of profit on my physical holdings. Haha. If that happens, I’ll be back on this forum complaining that the bulls with the most posts owe me an apology.😬

neondriver5 said:Haha, I wish I could actually agree with you for once!
But hey, the wheel keeps turning...

What difference do technical analyses, facts, or indicators even make when we're talking about speculative buying? Absolutely none.
Look, it's not like you're buying from bots; you're buying from other lunatics. They just happen to be named John, Paul, Cham, or Mao instead. You buy when you think it's a good deal; they buy when they think it's a good deal. There's zero logic or analysis involved here.
All five of you have the exact same goal: buy low and sell high.

I'm no trader, but sometimes I feel the itch. Ever since I started following the gold market—which hasn't been very long, honestly—this whole thing reminds me of a game of ping pong. It just bounces between 1500 and 1900. Part of me wants to (speculatively) buy at 1500 and just sit on it for a couple of months.
It would be pretty ironic if I actually made money on that, only to watch the bubble burst and lose every cent of profit on my physical holdings. Haha. If that happens, I’ll be back on this forum complaining that the bulls with the most posts owe me an apology.😬

And how exactly are you supposed to speculate without analysis? That’s a bold new strategy right there. Look, there is undeniably a bull market in precious metals. And newsflash: Buy and hold isn't the only way to play this game.

neondriver5 said:Haha, I wish I could actually agree with you for once!
But hey, the wheel keeps turning...

What difference do technical analyses, facts, or indicators even make when we're talking about speculative buying? Absolutely none.
Look, it's not like you're buying from bots; you're buying from other lunatics. They just happen to be named John, Paul, Cham, or Mao instead. You buy when you think it's a good deal; they buy when they think it's a good deal. There's zero logic or analysis involved here.
All five of you have the exact same goal: buy low and sell high.

I'm no trader, but sometimes I feel the itch. Ever since I started following the gold market—which hasn't been very long, honestly—this whole thing reminds me of a game of ping pong. It just bounces between 1500 and 1900. Part of me wants to (speculatively) buy at 1500 and just sit on it for a couple of months.
It would be pretty ironic if I actually made money on that, only to watch the bubble burst and lose every cent of profit on my physical holdings. Haha. If that happens, I’ll be back on this forum complaining that the bulls with the most posts owe me an apology.😬

It's apples and oranges again. What does post count have to do with actual opinions? There’s a massive difference between realizing gold performs well in a bull market and being some permabull who thinks it just climbs forever without correction (and then blaming "market manipulation" once it actually dips).

Look, you have a mountain of books at your disposal. Just type "commodity trading" into Google or Amazon and go educate yourselves. Mining stocks are just regular equities; they aren't some mystical entity, though they do swing based on Wall Street trends and whatever the current price of gold or silver happens to be. Claiming there’s no such thing as trading gold, miners, or any of these various analytical approaches is honestly just laughable.

Basically, central banks on both sides of the pond teamed up to make sure gold wouldn't step up and start acting like a real alternative currency instead of just some shiny metal sitting in a vault.
http://www.sprott.com/media/104644/ID-Feb-3-2012.pdf

$1500? That’s just a number on a screen. You aren't going to find any actual physical gold for $1500 anymore. 🙂
Besides, you can always try selling your physical stash to me at the spot price whenever you feel like it. 😁
And don't kid yourself about who you're trading with; when bots handle over three-quarters of the volume on the NYSE, you're basically just playing against algorithms. 🙂

Anthony Evans78 said:$1500? That’s just a number on a screen. You aren't going to find any actual physical gold for $1500 anymore. 🙂
Besides, you can always try selling your physical stash to me at the spot price whenever you feel like it. 😁
And don't kid yourself about who you're trading with; when bots handle over three-quarters of the volume on the NYSE, you're basically just playing against algorithms. 🙂

Gold probably isn't dropping below 1,520 anytime soon—that much is a given. But I don't get the obsession with "physical gold." It’s not exactly rocket science to calculate the spread between the spot price and what you're actually paying to hold a bar in your hand.

Alright, just a few miles outside of New York City and I’ve gotta say:

Current spot at calculation: $1,779.
USD/USA 1.3313
unca: 31.10348
$43,358.94 per kilo. That’s their asking price in USA.
32.15 ounces equals 1,000 grams. Simple enough.
They’re asking $1,795.41 per ounce. That’s their asking price in USD.
Up $16.41 per ounce over the spot price.
Up 0.92% against the spot price.

So, the price is sitting at 0.92% above spot. If you want to get closer to the more established markets, you’re looking at something like Proaurum at 0.61% over spot, or Goldman Sachs at 0.51%.

Look, I went with the 1,000-gram bar because that minimizes the labor component. When you're comparing the price of physical gold against the spot price, you aren't looking at the cost of shipping or logistics—you're looking at the metal itself. Simple as that.

So, today marks my one-year anniversary -> in gold 😍

Looking back at year one, I’m actually pretty happy with a ~ 25% return (after accounting for margins). When you really sit down and crunch the numbers—it turns out my gains are basically equivalent to a 26% monthly salary bump...

As for the long game, I’m not going to lose any sleep until the price climbs past the 1980 inflation-adjusted mark. (That puts the target at roughly $2,400 based on current math). I’ll probably look to buy more—maybe even double my position—by this summer, assuming I can catch a decent correction. Everything feels like it's heading toward another significant dip in the S&P 500 or perhaps just a much stronger Dollar.

Of course, none of this profit is truly "real" until I actually sell or swap it. 😁

quiettrucker12, when I say physical gold, I mean the kind you can actually hold in your hands, not some digital number sitting in a bank account somewhere.
If you can't reach out and touch it, what's the point? It might as well not even exist.

Anthony Evans78 said:quiettrucker12, when I say physical gold, I mean the kind you can actually hold in your hands, not some digital number sitting in a bank account somewhere.
If you can't reach out and touch it, what's the point? It might as well not even exist.

The distinction between physical and paper assets is obvious—that’s trivial. My point was about the price gap between physical and "paper" gold.

Take another look at your own post:

Anthony Evans78 said:quiettrucker12, when I say physical gold, I mean the kind you can actually hold in your hands, not some digital number sitting in a bank account somewhere.
If you can't reach out and touch it, what's the point? It might as well not even exist.

For the millionth time, you're trying to argue there's a price difference between physical and "paper" gold. I'll lay out the math proving they're the same, and you'll just ignore it again.

Bringing up allocation is just moving the goalposts and dodging the issue. I didn't even mention allocation to begin with. Besides, in the US, you can't even get close to spot prices through certain channels without massive markups. Trying to judge gold prices based on some niche market quirks or shady dealer margins is just bad logic.

I've said it a thousand times already: the price of physical gold and paper gold is eventually going to decouple. That’s a given.
When the value of that paper hits zero, what happens to the millions of people who think they own gold, but really just hold a worthless scrap of paper or some digital entry?
Just because US law makes it impossible for regular citizens to protect their purchasing power by buying precious metals doesn't mean the law is right. It’s the exact opposite. Are you going to pay for a CBS subscription just because you have a radio in your car? I know I won't.
And why would I even bother buying it here in the States? 🙂

Anthony Evans78 said:I've said it a thousand times already: the price of physical gold and paper gold is eventually going to decouple. That’s a given.
When the value of that paper hits zero, what happens to the millions of people who think they own gold, but really just hold a worthless scrap of paper or some digital entry?
Just because US law makes it impossible for regular citizens to protect their purchasing power by buying precious metals doesn't mean the law is right. It’s the exact opposite. Are you going to pay for a CBS subscription just because you have a radio in your car? I know I won't.
And why would I even bother buying it here in the States? 🙂

That’s the dream, anyway, but it never actually happens. 😁 Right now, there is zero difference between physical premiums and the spot price.

Anthony Evans78 said:I've said it a thousand times already: the price of physical gold and paper gold is eventually going to decouple. That’s a given.
When the value of that paper hits zero, what happens to the millions of people who think they own gold, but really just hold a worthless scrap of paper or some digital entry?
Just because US law makes it impossible for regular citizens to protect their purchasing power by buying precious metals doesn't mean the law is right. It’s the exact opposite. Are you going to pay for a CBS subscription just because you have a radio in your car? I know I won't.
And why would I even bother buying it here in the States? 🙂

Instead of actually addressing my point—which was that there is no price gap between physical and paper gold (there wasn't one in 1920 or 1520 either)—you’re pivoting to talk about US laws and CBS subscriptions.

What does gold allocation have to do with US legislation?

And what does where you store your gold have to do with the spread between physical and "paper" prices?

Whether you bring your gold into the US or keep it overseas is completely irrelevant to this conversation about the physical-vs-spot price gap.

Silverstein said:I told you prices were going to decouple. Everything points to that happening.

Maybe we’re hitting the tail end of the final bubble, maybe we aren't. Who knows? The bottom line is that there hasn't been any meaningful difference between physical prices and spot prices for basically the entire decade of this bull market.

Silverstein said:You were the one who brought up the distinction between legal and illegal stuff in America first—go back and check your own post.🙂

Look, regarding post 2655—following your 2654—you’re pivoting to this whole "offshore allocation" thing for no reason. You're basically implying I'm talking about moving assets abroad, which isn't what I said. I was just listing physical prices where they're actually available for purchase. Since you want to get into these allocation schemes, we should probably address the reality of our domestic market. There’s a reason everyone assumes you have to buy physical bullion overseas. It’s not some grand scheme about allocation; it’s just basic procurement and price.

Silverstein said:Since we’re talking about the American gold market—something you already brought up—it’s worth looking at the absolute stupidity of the customs duties here. They make it impossible for anyone except the Federal Reserve to import gold or any other precious metals. It's ridiculous.

Comparing Vani to America is just a pointless distraction.

Silverstein said:If my train of thought is getting too complicated or jumping five steps ahead, no big deal. Let's just take it one step at a time.🙂

"Gold is money," "it’ll never be part of a bubble," "physical prices will decouple from paper prices"—it’s the same loop every single time. Honestly, it isn't rocket science. Every gold bug out there recites this exact same script, but I don't get why we need to hear these same three talking points repeated ad nauseam. We've all heard it a thousand times already.

Silverstein said:And let’s not forget that the spot price for physical gold actually costs you more than just half or one percent above the market rate. Are you ignoring shipping and storage? That’s the fundamental difference between paper and physical—at least right now. Online IOU gold has zero overhead besides maybe a commission. Physical gold comes with all those extra baggage items I just mentioned.

What does any of that have to do with the physical-spot price decoupling? Is this just another pivot away from the actual topic? Shipping costs for something like gold are negligible, and the same goes for storage. Storage fees are roughly on par with what you'd pay in broker commissions. Why do you think Mora can fly in from Switzerland and sell to us practically at spot? The real downsides, risks, and potential costs of physical gold are the massive bid-ask spread and the risk of theft (insurance). If you're worried about spreads, just look at what dealers are paying for buybacks.

Bottom line: what I quoted neither

1. has anything to do with a potential split between physical prices and "paper" or spot or whatever else
2. relates to how physical gold prices end up being practically equal to spot

And what kind of exporters are we even supposed to be? 😍

http://hr.seebiz.eu/valute-i-robe/iz...puta/ar-27674/

James Turk on gold and silver

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...26_Silver.html

Ben’s doing a live conference tomorrow. Honestly, knowing him, everything could just flip green—it’s been pretty much his track record up to this point 😍
So, what’s everyone thinking? What are your calls?