Gold: Past, Present, and Future

lonehawk5 said:Feels like a breakout to $670 is coming...

😉☕

Washington, D.C. has officially fallen off the fiscal cliff. Or at least, that's the official line. The Senate voted to maintain current tax rates for anyone earning under $400k. This means the middle class might actually dodge a tax hike—assuming the House of Representatives agrees during their meeting this afternoon. We'll see, though I doubt the Republican majority would dare vote against this; they aren't about to hand the middle class a tax increase. Spending cuts are also being pushed back, but only by two months, right when our ability to borrow more hits its limit. If things stay on this trajectory, especially regarding middle-class taxes, the deficit looks set to hit at least $800 billion by the end of March, depending on what happens in two months. The math is still being finalized, but in my view, this is long-term bullish for gold and silver. We have to wait and see what March brings, but I highly doubt they’ll risk not raising the debt ceiling; they’d go bankrupt instantly. This trend could suggest a medium-term shift in how things play out. Printing money out of thin air without any long-term sterilization will eventually lead to inflation. It might not happen overnight, but it's coming.
To be honest, I briefly thought they were going to tighten the belt. Now? That's off the table. They've decided to blow the bubble until it pops.
All things considered, gold should clear $2,000, and silver ought to hit at least $40 by 2013. Though, predicting silver is always a thankless task.

Robert Vaughn10 said:Washington, D.C. has officially fallen off the fiscal cliff. Or at least, that's the official line. The Senate voted to maintain current tax rates for anyone earning under $400k. This means the middle class might actually dodge a tax hike—assuming the House of Representatives agrees during their meeting this afternoon. We'll see, though I doubt the Republican majority would dare vote against this; they aren't about to hand the middle class a tax increase. Spending cuts are also being pushed back, but only by two months, right when our ability to borrow more hits its limit. If things stay on this trajectory, especially regarding middle-class taxes, the deficit looks set to hit at least $800 billion by the end of March, depending on what happens in two months. The math is still being finalized, but in my view, this is long-term bullish for gold and silver. We have to wait and see what March brings, but I highly doubt they’ll risk not raising the debt ceiling; they’d go bankrupt instantly. This trend could suggest a medium-term shift in how things play out. Printing money out of thin air without any long-term sterilization will eventually lead to inflation. It might not happen overnight, but it's coming.
To be honest, I briefly thought they were going to tighten the belt. Now? That's off the table. They've decided to blow the bubble until it pops.
All things considered, gold should clear $2,000, and silver ought to hit at least $40 by 2013. Though, predicting silver is always a thankless task.

They decided to loosen the reins a long time ago. There's no turning back now. Ben basically kicked off round three of QE with no expiration date, giving himself the green light to pump in as much cash as he sees fit. In the context of a 12-year gold bull market, missing the fiscal cliff is practically a rounding error. Politicians don't think like we do—the Senate passed that deal 89 to 8, while QE3 went through 11 to 1.

Of course, everyone will claim gold surged because of the fiscal cliff once the new QE kicks in... I don't buy it. There are much bigger forces at play here.

Now we wait to see which day liquidity decides to flee into the stock market. We'll find out if that triggers a final bottom for precious metals or if the 100-week moving average holds steady.

quiettrucker12 said:They decided to loosen the reins a long time ago. There's no turning back now. Ben basically kicked off round three of QE with no expiration date, giving himself the green light to pump in as much cash as he sees fit. In the context of a 12-year gold bull market, missing the fiscal cliff is practically a rounding error. Politicians don't think like we do—the Senate passed that deal 89 to 8, while QE3 went through 11 to 1.

Of course, everyone will claim gold surged because of the fiscal cliff once the new QE kicks in... I don't buy it. There are much bigger forces at play here.

Now we wait to see which day liquidity decides to flee into the stock market. We'll find out if that triggers a final bottom for precious metals or if the 100-week moving average holds steady.

What bigger forces? What specifically are you getting at?
Speak up, but watch yourself—being out in Utah, you might get monitored by some "supercomputer." Careful what you say...😂
And one more thing: apparently, all tax legislation has to originate in the House of Representatives, not the Senate. If that info is right, then the Senate basically violated the Constitution. It's hard to believe they weren't aware of that.
Who knows how this mess ends. The longer this standoff between the two chambers drags on, the higher the chance of a downgrade, which could have implications far beyond the USA. This could stretch all the way into March, especially since Obamacare is up for renewal at year-end. Funding that is going to be a massive headache. Throw in the fact that the Japanese seem hell-bent on weakening the yen, and Merkel claiming the crisis is nowhere near over...
As for the USA, regardless of the outcome, it looks like middle-class tax hikes are becoming a reality. I doubt the Republicans will fight that specific part; they've been backed into a corner. However, if the bickering continues over other points—like that extra $200 billion I can see on the horizon—then yes, the deficit will likely hit $800 billion at the very least. Probably much more. Gold should move up, and silver logically follows...

Robert Vaughn10 said:What bigger forces? What specifically are you getting at?
Speak up, but watch yourself—being out in Utah, you might get monitored by some "supercomputer." Careful what you say...😂
And one more thing: apparently, all tax legislation has to originate in the House of Representatives, not the Senate. If that info is right, then the Senate basically violated the Constitution. It's hard to believe they weren't aware of that.
Who knows how this mess ends. The longer this standoff between the two chambers drags on, the higher the chance of a downgrade, which could have implications far beyond the USA. This could stretch all the way into March, especially since Obamacare is up for renewal at year-end. Funding that is going to be a massive headache. Throw in the fact that the Japanese seem hell-bent on weakening the yen, and Merkel claiming the crisis is nowhere near over...
As for the USA, regardless of the outcome, it looks like middle-class tax hikes are becoming a reality. I doubt the Republicans will fight that specific part; they've been backed into a corner. However, if the bickering continues over other points—like that extra $200 billion I can see on the horizon—then yes, the deficit will likely hit $800 billion at the very least. Probably much more. Gold should move up, and silver logically follows...

Look at that recent sudden drop in the aftermarket on low volume right when things should have been heading up. They managed to pull off a correction that was supposed to happen back in the spring and somehow shifted it three months earlier. Just like every other failed attempt to prop up prices, this will probably just result in an even bigger move in the opposite direction. Unless there’s some third factor pulling strings behind the scenes, but I doubt it.

The big issue isn't the manipulation itself—it's the timing.

By 2013, they'll likely have "exhausted" the momentum needed to break the $2,000 mark, meaning gold should catch its stride and see much more significant growth in 2014.

Robert Vaughn10 said:Washington, D.C. has officially fallen off the fiscal cliff. Or at least, that's the official line. The Senate voted to maintain current tax rates for anyone earning under $400k. This means the middle class might actually dodge a tax hike—assuming the House of Representatives agrees during their meeting this afternoon. We'll see, though I doubt the Republican majority would dare vote against this; they aren't about to hand the middle class a tax increase. Spending cuts are also being pushed back, but only by two months, right when our ability to borrow more hits its limit. If things stay on this trajectory, especially regarding middle-class taxes, the deficit looks set to hit at least $800 billion by the end of March, depending on what happens in two months. The math is still being finalized, but in my view, this is long-term bullish for gold and silver. We have to wait and see what March brings, but I highly doubt they’ll risk not raising the debt ceiling; they’d go bankrupt instantly. This trend could suggest a medium-term shift in how things play out. Printing money out of thin air without any long-term sterilization will eventually lead to inflation. It might not happen overnight, but it's coming.
To be honest, I briefly thought they were going to tighten the belt. Now? That's off the table. They've decided to blow the bubble until it pops.
All things considered, gold should clear $2,000, and silver ought to hit at least $40 by 2013. Though, predicting silver is always a thankless task.

Let's be real—that’s not even the middle class. In the US, there's been this running idea for ages that once an individual starts pulling in over $250,000 a year, you've crossed into the wealthy territory. Even Barack Obama’s unofficial benchmark was around $200k for a single person—which is $250k for a couple—and honestly, according to some polls, most Americans think the line is drawn at $150,000. If those folks are the "wealthy," then where the hell is the actual middle class?...

If you ask some theorists, this whole "impossible deal" drama was basically scripted and agreed upon behind closed doors not too long ago.
The whole point is to look clean in front of the voters while setting the stage to push through a massive, totally new budget control act that fundamentally reshapes everything on multiple levels.

And yeah, technically they didn't fall off the cliff—because that "fiscal cliff" is really just the economic fallout from being unable to agree on a decision in the first place.

graniteviper37 said:Let's be real—that’s not even the middle class. In the US, there's been this running idea for ages that once an individual starts pulling in over $250,000 a year, you've crossed into the wealthy territory. Even Barack Obama’s unofficial benchmark was around $200k for a single person—which is $250k for a couple—and honestly, according to some polls, most Americans think the line is drawn at $150,000. If those folks are the "wealthy," then where the hell is the actual middle class?...

If you ask some theorists, this whole "impossible deal" drama was basically scripted and agreed upon behind closed doors not too long ago.
The whole point is to look clean in front of the voters while setting the stage to push through a massive, totally new budget control act that fundamentally reshapes everything on multiple levels.

And yeah, technically they didn't fall off the cliff—because that "fiscal cliff" is really just the economic fallout from being unable to agree on a decision in the first place.

I never claimed someone making $250k or $400k is middle class...
But that threshold certainly encompasses them. The higher that limit goes, the larger the deficit becomes, which was the whole point. A larger deficit should drive inflation, creating a favorable environment for gold and silver.
However, I do believe they have fallen off a fiscal cliff in a sense. As my colleague correctly noted, it happened "a long time ago." How high that cliff is and how long the descent lasts remains to be seen, which will dictate the long-term consequences. My initial thought was that they were attempting a mid-air rescue, but it's now glaringly obvious that wasn't the plan. The fact that they won't raise taxes on the middle class speaks volumes to me. While you can never rule out a sudden policy pivot, I highly doubt it's happening here.

graniteviper37 said:Let's be real—that’s not even the middle class. In the US, there's been this running idea for ages that once an individual starts pulling in over $250,000 a year, you've crossed into the wealthy territory. Even Barack Obama’s unofficial benchmark was around $200k for a single person—which is $250k for a couple—and honestly, according to some polls, most Americans think the line is drawn at $150,000. If those folks are the "wealthy," then where the hell is the actual middle class?...

If you ask some theorists, this whole "impossible deal" drama was basically scripted and agreed upon behind closed doors not too long ago.
The whole point is to look clean in front of the voters while setting the stage to push through a massive, totally new budget control act that fundamentally reshapes everything on multiple levels.

And yeah, technically they didn't fall off the cliff—because that "fiscal cliff" is really just the economic fallout from being unable to agree on a decision in the first place.

Could be. But there’s a reason for it: certain individuals and special interest groups are lining their pockets. It’s one thing to guess that everything is irrelevant, but it's another thing entirely to have the exact roadmap and intel. In the trading world, the gap between the big whales and the retail guys isn't really about skill or smarts—it's all about who gets the information first.

lonehawk5 said:Buying more gold at $669.78...

Silver long at 31.63...

Go big on both positions... now.

Sold gold at $682.13

lonehawk5 said:Picked up some more gold at 2,580 and silver at 31.75... just gotta keep stacking

Gold is out at $682.42

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...ght-looms.html
Bottom line? They hiked taxes and ramped up spending. 🤦

Next step is raising the debt ceiling by another trillion or two... pretty sure that's coming. I mean, what's the alternative? Declaring bankruptcy?
They basically just blew their chance to avoid this... ☕

Now we just gotta watch the Federal Reserve balance sheet. If it keeps growing—specifically those U.S. Treasury securities—then there’s zero reason gold (and probably all commodities) won't head north. But if Ben plays games and the balance sheet stays flat? Then gold stays stuck too...
The only thing that could mess this up is if rating agencies hike interest rates on our debt. But given how they've acted so far and where they're based, I highly doubt that happens... ☕

Main things to watch: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/ Gold prices live and die by this stuff.

You really think their rating's gonna tank? Why would it? There's zero chance the USA isn't paying back its debt. It's just common sense, like Alan Greenspan said:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=q6vi528gseA
😁

Of course they're wrong. If the USA pays back what they borrowed, they aren't actually returning the same value—they're returning a diluted version after the dollar's worth has been eaten up by inflation from all that printing... so they aren't even paying back the real loan. That whole idea about paying back 100 on 100? Just fairy tales for kids.

Waiting for Karl to break out of silver 😁
I feel like all this hype is gonna fizzle out by January. We'll see
Best of luck in the new year!

Hey, does anyone know when that payroll hits?

lonehawk5 said:Picked up some more gold at 2,580 and silver at 31.75... just gotta keep stacking

Silver just hit 31.27 on the way out

Nobody saw the extension of the lower payroll tax rate coming. With the deficit likely hitting around a trillion dollars, the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to monetize. That’s a win for gold and silver. Personally, I don't think a growing balance sheet matters much in the long run. Theoretically, you could even shrink the balance sheet and still trigger inflation if the Federal Reserve pulls liquidity out of the banks 😉, while simultaneously printing slightly less than what they withdrew to buy bonds. That creates money flowing directly into the economy rather than just moving stagnant cash sitting in bank vaults
. As for this supposed euphoria... there isn't a trace of it. Honestly, I hope this lack of excitement lasts for years. We might start seeing more frequent $20–$30 swings, deeper corrections, and then immediate counter-trend reactions once those dips hit. Once that pattern establishes itself, we could see a massive surge in gold and silver prices. As my colleague Zvrk puts it, we are looking at a "new big wave in gold and silver."
Though, if you ask me, it would be wise to wait a bit before jumping in.
Regarding the balance sheet... it’s highly questionable whether the data provided by the Federal Reserve is even accurate. For instance, the Federal Reserve doesn't even publish M3 anymore, and according to Mike Maloney, it's actually shrinking. If contraction were the primary driver, we should be seeing significant deflation by now, which clearly isn't happening
. If the Federal Reserve is withholding certain facts, they probably have a reason. It’s possible they haven't disclosed some recent rounds of money printing either
.

There's an 80% chance the bottom hit right at the 100-week moving average ($1636) back on December 20th.

The 100 WMA

The major floor before this was in May; forget about November 5th. I honestly thought we’d see a little more downside in the next ten days—maybe dipping to $1610 or $1625—but it looks like that ship has sailed.

It’s a weird setup. On December 20th, the sellers just vanished, but the buyers didn't exactly rush in to take the reins either.

If gold breaks past $1705, that’s our first real confirmation. For the cautious types out there, watch for
a breakout above $1725.

My take on gold, especially among Americans, is that the whole thing is handled with this absolute trash, "amateur hour" mindset by its self-proclaimed advocates and "investors." Most people diving into gold treat it like some groundbreaking new discovery—like they finally found the secret sauce to getting rich. It’s basically just another gamble for them, similar to how they jumped into those shady MLM's, bought overpriced condos in Washington, D.C., or fell for those endless sweepstakes schemes. I’d bet my life that most American "gold investors" don't even own a single stock, or maybe they're just clinging to whatever scraps they have left from when they "successfully" speculated during the housing bubble back in the mid-2000s. From that perspective of being totally wiped out, if they actually have any extra cash, they dump it into what feels "safe," even though they're playing in a seriously high-risk asset class. I mean, think about the folks who bought at the peak in the late 70s—they haven't even broken even yet!?

As for the gold bugs in America (or the "experts" who swear by silver because gold is apparently too mainstream), it’s probably not even worth the breath, but I have to mention that it's mostly just a bunch of anonymous, bottom-tier characters. Why would anyone stay completely anonymous in this business unless they had some shady, non-transparent interests? And the funniest part is these "big shots" at some silver conference claiming to be world-class investors, when if you actually shook them down, you'd be lucky to find ten cents in their pockets.

Nenad Bakić

Welcome back, buddy... I guess that native American really ticked Bakić off with all that silver.

Gold is sitting right at the crossroads; whether it's heading up or down is the big question now.