Gold: Past, Present, and Future

What a disaster. $20 an ounce? Wake me up when it dips below $1,000 per ounce... Until then, I’ll be sitting here like a loaded gun, just waiting for silver.
It would be absolutely brilliant if that ratio dropped below 60.

Look, we’re talking about less than half a Dollar for a single gram. It’s practically pocket change.
It doesn't matter if it's a three percent swing over two days.

neondriver5 said:Look, we’re talking about less than half a Dollar for a single gram. It’s practically pocket change.
It doesn't matter if it's a three percent swing over two days.

Look, nobody invests for a day or two. You invest for the long haul...
And I’m not looking at two or three percent gains. I'm up ten times those measly numbers you're talking about, simply because I don't panic and exit my position every time there's a tiny wiggle in the market.
The volatility goes both ways, sure, but it stays relatively steady around $1,350. The all-time high was near $1,500, so take a look at where Gold stands.
Gold preserves purchasing power over the long term.

I suppose you all realize gold actually comes from the ground...😂

Here is a little joke for the occasion.

http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1140914

The real chaos kicks off at move 36...
Bobby Fischer: World Chess Champion 1960-1961

unknown

Still no confirmation that January 4th was the bottom at $1526. To get actual proof, we need to see a break above the trendline sitting around $1678, or better yet, a move past the high from the Dec 31–Jan 4 week at $1696.

Until that trendline snaps, the local trend is officially down.

The Dollar is looking incredibly weak against almost everything, except Gene—and let’s be real, his slide can't last forever. Commercial players have been aggressively slashing their long positions on the Dollar and piling into shorts.

For Gold to actually rally, the Dollar needs to clear resistance near the 79 and 200 WMA:

200 weekly Dollar average

Gold back above the 100 WMA:

Gold 100 WMA Gold

Gold hit the 500 DMA on January 4th:

Gold 500 daily average

Gold is riding above the 500 DMA and currently sitting above the 200 DMA:

Gold 500-day and 200-day averages

Silver is trading above the 150 WMA:

Silver 150 weekly average

There seems to be a correlation here between Gold and corporate bonds:

gold:corporate bonds 200 WMA

silver:corporate bonds 300 WMA

Looking at the gold-to-corporate bond ratio paints a different picture regarding this correction; it suggests the bottom might have actually occurred back in July. That said, both the gold-dollar and gold-DJCB ratios clearly show the downward correction broke in August, signaling an uptrend from that point forward.

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Bottom line: Gold shouldn't drop below $1626. The headache is that even though everything points to $1626 being the floor, nobody is buying. Right now, there's just a vacuum—no buyers, no sellers. We'll see if the needle moves next week. For now, this fits the expectation of a bottom around January 2nd (or early Jan 2013) in the $1610-$1625 range, but anything goes until we see a breakout above that trendline and $1696.

There it is—it just broke through that downward trendline at roughly $1,676. Next stop is $1,696 if we want actual confirmation that we've hit bottom.

The next big hurdle is the 10 WMA ($1,691 for Gold 100 WMA Gold, $31.80 for silver).

_Honestly, I’ve totally lost track of which moving averages to watch—is it the 10, 20, 50, 100, 150, or even the 200 or 500? 😕

It’s just to get a clearer picture of things. Right now, it’s hovering at $1,696, but we just saw a breakout from the channel today—a clean trendline breach.

analogharbor44 said:_Honestly, I’ve totally lost track of which moving averages to watch—is it the 10, 20, 50, 100, 150, or even the 200 or 500? 😕

Try the 113.7 SMA 🤷

The goal here was to paint the bigger picture (personally, I don't see gold dropping below $1,626 anytime soon). If this isn't your thing, feel free to scroll past.

Just think about it... even the major central banks have stopped trusting one another. It is a staggering level of distrust—especially during what should be such a brilliant phase of global economic recovery...😉

http://5minforecast.agorafinancial.c...n.+Forecast%29

We probably won't see that requested gold returned until 2020 at the earliest. Honestly, I doubt the Federal Reserve can even find an empty shipping container headed toward Europe right now... absolute joke...

Gregory Wells5 said:We probably won't see that requested gold returned until 2020 at the earliest. Honestly, I doubt the Federal Reserve can even find an empty shipping container headed toward Europe right now... absolute joke...

If you listen to the cynics over at ZeroHedge, the US doesn't even have that much gold; they just have tungsten bars coated in gold, meaning it'll take seven years of digging just to find 300 tons.

It is interesting how they suddenly noticed that France—with the Federal Reserve pulling 350 tons out of Paris, again spread out over several years at 50 tons annually—has all of a sudden decided to intervene in Mali, one of the major gold producers in Africa.

Right now, everyone is forecasting recoveries and growth, but it feels more like wishful thinking than actual reality. If stocks dive a bit further, the scenario becomes more likely that precious metals become a safe haven not just for the goldbugs, but for the big institutional players too, which could send prices skyward.

The chicken pecked at the grain
http://nytimes.com/news/world/australia-news-link

I can't help but wonder if there's any truth to this...

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...is-being-born/

The Federal Reserve just printed 35 billion in a single week... they're still way too far from hitting 3000.

Since they announced Quantitative Easing 4.5 months ago, they've pumped out 141 billion—and a quarter of that happened in just one week!

Gold hit $1,696 yesterday, checking off all the boxes needed to confirm our January 4th target of $1,626. In a standard scenario, we should see a push toward $1,730, followed by a minor few-dollar dip before the climb toward $1,800 continues. We'll see if the bears try one last desperate grab today. Oh, and gold finally broke above the 75 WMA.

I honestly think anyone trying technical analysis on precious metals is just fighting a losing battle against massive market manipulation. Some interesting news to chew on: yesterday, an entity like the Silver Institute scooped up over 500 tons of physical silver. Meanwhile, in Japan, the Prime Minister is moving to strip the central bank of its independence, while Russia is essentially printing Yen to fund their growth and national debt—exactly what our friend Nostradamus has been warning us about for ages. The Federal Reserve is ramping up primary issuance, too. Over here in the States, we’re seeing economic data being massaged to fit a "wishful thinking" narrative of positivity. In Spain, they're dipping into pension funds to cover state debt. And the Chinese? They’ve always printed whatever they needed, and they’ll double down now to maintain control during this period of cooling demand.

Once the Federal Reserve starts devaluing the Dollar, the Japanese Yen and the Chinese currency will inevitably be crushed under the weight of it all. Eventually, the Spanish will bleed their pension funds dry and have no choice but to beg the Federal Reserve to print enough to cover their deficits. When that happens, the Dollar will follow the path of the other major currencies. Even the Swiss Franc, which is tied to the Dollar, will go down with the ship.

If this isn't a fantastic medium-term setup for precious metals, then I don't know anything about football.

Ashley Thompson10 said:I honestly think anyone trying technical analysis on precious metals is just fighting a losing battle against massive market manipulation. Some interesting news to chew on: yesterday, an entity like the Silver Institute scooped up over 500 tons of physical silver. Meanwhile, in Japan, the Prime Minister is moving to strip the central bank of its independence, while Russia is essentially printing Yen to fund their growth and national debt—exactly what our friend Nostradamus has been warning us about for ages. The Federal Reserve is ramping up primary issuance, too. Over here in the States, we’re seeing economic data being massaged to fit a "wishful thinking" narrative of positivity. In Spain, they're dipping into pension funds to cover state debt. And the Chinese? They’ve always printed whatever they needed, and they’ll double down now to maintain control during this period of cooling demand.

Once the Federal Reserve starts devaluing the Dollar, the Japanese Yen and the Chinese currency will inevitably be crushed under the weight of it all. Eventually, the Spanish will bleed their pension funds dry and have no choice but to beg the Federal Reserve to print enough to cover their deficits. When that happens, the Dollar will follow the path of the other major currencies. Even the Swiss Franc, which is tied to the Dollar, will go down with the ship.

If this isn't a fantastic medium-term setup for precious metals, then I don't know anything about football.

But you know, the absolute worst part of this whole scenario is that we probably won't even see hyperinflation.
What actually happens is that the things you actually need will rise in price alongside gold, while the stuff you don't care about will just stagnate, and the real kicker is that wages will stay exactly where they are, or worse, we might not even have them at all.

So, for example, if your paycheck is currently $1667, gas is $3.25, and bread is $2.25, we could end up looking at paychecks stuck at $1667 while gas jumps to $10 and bread hits $6.75, all while dealing with extra imaginary taxes.

I am not really expecting to make a massive profit on precious metals, but rather I am just looking to preserve the value of my capital.

And that is just the beauty of it.🙂

Dennis Fisher5 said:But you know, the absolute worst part of this whole scenario is that we probably won't even see hyperinflation.
What actually happens is that the things you actually need will rise in price alongside gold, while the stuff you don't care about will just stagnate, and the real kicker is that wages will stay exactly where they are, or worse, we might not even have them at all.

So, for example, if your paycheck is currently $1667, gas is $3.25, and bread is $2.25, we could end up looking at paychecks stuck at $1667 while gas jumps to $10 and bread hits $6.75, all while dealing with extra imaginary taxes.

I am not really expecting to make a massive profit on precious metals, but rather I am just looking to preserve the value of my capital.

And that is just the beauty of it.🙂

Regarding...The hyperinflation of the dollar.We'll have to see if there's actually any potential here, but for now, Governor Vujčić seems to have everything under control.