Gold: Past, Present, and Future

Amanda Allen4 said:Look, I am nowhere near being some high-net-worth individual, but I do hold gold that seems to follow the exact playbook laid out by Egon von Greyerz: it is held outside my local jurisdiction, it exists in physical form, and it remains entirely decoupled from the banking system. Specifically, my holdings are secured in Loomis vaults located in the UK and Switzerland.

So, no, it isn't sitting under my floorboards. Is that clear enough for everyone?

I'm a total newbie here, could someone please walk me through all of this?

Why does it need to be outside the jurisdiction where you live?

And what does "outside the banking system" actually mean—does that imply it isn't in a bank vault?

How on earth did you even manage to ship gold over to the UK and Switzerland?

analogwolf10 said:I'm a total newbie here, could someone please walk me through all of this?

Why does it need to be outside the jurisdiction where you live?

And what does "outside the banking system" actually mean—does that imply it isn't in a bank vault?

How on earth did you even manage to ship gold over to the UK and Switzerland?

1. Because—as far as I am aware—there simply isn't a sufficiently reputable or specialized institution for gold storage and trading right here in the States. Besides, since every single transaction happens online anyway, does it even matter geographically where the physical metal is tucked away?
2. Precisely. It’s not held in some commercial bank vault, but rather within an institution that operates independently of the traditional banking system.
3. I didn't "ship" any gold—don't be absurd! I bought it in several increments when the price was sitting below $900 per ounce, and it's currently held with https://www.goldmoney.com. They manage the physical bullion across multiple vaults, including locations in the United Kingdom and Switzerland. You can buy or sell back in six major global currencies, plus Bitcoin.

Amanda Allen4 said:Look, I am nowhere near being some high-net-worth individual, but I do hold gold that seems to follow the exact playbook laid out by Egon von Greyerz: it is held outside my local jurisdiction, it exists in physical form, and it remains entirely decoupled from the banking system. Specifically, my holdings are secured in Loomis vaults located in the UK and Switzerland.

So, no, it isn't sitting under my floorboards. Is that clear enough for everyone?

Hey, if that setup works for you, who am I to judge your life choices? I don't know how much metal you're actually holding, but let's be real—storage isn't free. Sure, Loomis is a huge, reputable player, but personally? When it comes to precious metals, I don't trust anyone—not even the big names or the stuff they're peddling right now.😁

But seriously, what does "outside your jurisdiction" actually mean in practice here?

brisksurfer71 said:Let me remind you about when it was around $8,000.

KuciloOro says: Check out this post
Don't get ahead of yourself. Gold is slow and heavily manipulated. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is incredibly volatile and moves fast.
Just like it dropped from $19,500 down to $9,800, it can just as easily climb from its current $12,000 up to $24,000...
I'll be reminding you about that $8,000 price point later.

Just a little reality check for a "fundamentalist" like KuciloOro 😵
how many ounces of gold can you actually buy with 1 BTC right now? 😁😁😁

dustyheron5 said:What’s your take—do you think central banks might actually start adding Bitcoin and other crypto to their reserves this year?
Assuming they don't just stick to gold and digital pixels... 😁

If that actually happens, I’m tossing my entire economics degree in the trash and focusing on my real job—or maybe just moving out to the sticks to grow hazelnuts. 😁
Honestly, I think the Fed and other big banks will have much bigger fires to put out this year or next. 🍿

brisksurfer71 said:KuciloOro says: Check out this post
Don't get ahead of yourself. Gold is slow and heavily manipulated. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is incredibly volatile and moves fast.
Just like it dropped from $19,500 down to $9,800, it can just as easily climb from its current $12,000 up to $24,000...
I'll be reminding you about that $8,000 price point later.

Just a little reality check for a "fundamentalist" like KuciloOro 😵
how many ounces of gold can you actually buy with 1 BTC right now? 😁😁😁

You can check out the relationship between Bitcoin, gold, and the dollar right here.

http://pricedingold.com/bitcoin/

Melissa Sanchez17 said:Hey, if that setup works for you, who am I to judge your life choices? I don't know how much metal you're actually holding, but let's be real—storage isn't free. Sure, Loomis is a huge, reputable player, but personally? When it comes to precious metals, I don't trust anyone—not even the big names or the stuff they're peddling right now.😁

But seriously, what does "outside your jurisdiction" actually mean in practice here?

My interpretation was simply a location where the laws of your home country don't carry any weight.

I don't know—and I say this with all due respect to Warren Buffett’s expertise—but his recommendations are just incredibly vague. It's like someone telling you the secret to winning at the stock market is "buy low and sell high." How helpful is that, really? ☕

Amanda Allen4 said:My interpretation was simply a location where the laws of your home country don't carry any weight.

I don't know—and I say this with all due respect to Warren Buffett’s expertise—but his recommendations are just incredibly vague. It's like someone telling you the secret to winning at the stock market is "buy low and sell high." How helpful is that, really? ☕

Egon von Greyerz is 110% precise.
This could be a long-term pivot, if not a full-blown reversal. Even looking toward Asia. If I were a banker, I would have already positioned myself, even for the long haul. Besides, I provided the link. The Dollar is on a downward slide; USD has already dropped to 89.16, while simultaneously, you need nearly 1.25 dollars just to get one Euro. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones has surged over 1,000 points in just a few days. Put that in context. There is only a temporary surplus of cheap liquidity in the market, and 10-year Treasuries are hovering near 3%...
A simple question, though I think the point above serves as a perfect segue: why did the Federal Reserve hide M3 back in 2006?

The Dow Jones dropped from 26600 points and is currently sitting at 24913. Volatility is high, which, along with other parameters, is a hallmark of a market top. In reality, this is a very "healthy" correction designed to shake out the majority of retail investors who are currently asleep at the wheel. I expect similar behavior from metals. Specifically regarding silver, daily swings could easily exceed $10. It is evident that capital velocity is low; inflation in the US has frequently dipped into negative territory, reminiscent of 2015 levels. Paper assets appear strong on the surface, yet commodity prices remain quite low. An opportunity. Gentlemen, how much more liquidity can there be? Cash is everywhere and interest rates are incredibly low, but where exactly are you supposed to deploy it? A few players have ideas, but generally speaking, the options are as sparse as departing buses. The entire West is becoming lethargic. Bankers understand this allocation problem and the function of interest rates perfectly. Don't be naive about it. A banker is a social Darwinist; there is no shame in that. They will facilitate their own transfers, but once that process concludes, the scheme we've seen over the last few decades will reach its endgame. Why should the banker care? They will continue to extract intelligence and expertise from Asia while maintaining the service and paper dominance and collecting debts in the West. If we adopt a paradigm like "silver at $80 USD per ounce," interest rates and quality must stabilize at some reasonable level. For the banker, it won't be an issue if the other side turns significantly more. A 3-4% return on the dollar isn't enough for an average person to build serious capital based on current average salaries in the Republic. At this price point, it is difficult to find much more liquidity. Consequently, people are already starting to pivot toward US Treasury bonds. Sure, the price and coupon might be lower, but one should focus on the interest rate hitting a certain threshold sometime after 2020. For instance, if the rate hits 10%—and I personally call this "Toddy's Rate"—let's say we look at a 10-year US Treasury bond; the real yield of principal plus interest would be massive, assuming no major subsequent shocks. In that sense, future currency inflation and the question of what actually measures the value of stock indices versus precious metals will serve as a guide for where "smart money" moves. Hyperinflation in the US is unlikely, but as far as the dollar goes, the primary targets are the liberals in the Northeast. 😉
An Alabama farmer might even emerge as a temporary ally in this regard.
So, if you haven't already, start taking positions without overleveraging.



Quite an interesting segment at 5:00.

"Deploying and sinking the pieces."

Access to CAPITAL is...

"Crazy John, crazy John..."

brisksurfer71 said:KuciloOro says: Check out this post
Don't get ahead of yourself. Gold is slow and heavily manipulated. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is incredibly volatile and moves fast.
Just like it dropped from $19,500 down to $9,800, it can just as easily climb from its current $12,000 up to $24,000...
I'll be reminding you about that $8,000 price point later.

Just a little reality check for a "fundamentalist" like KuciloOro 😵
how many ounces of gold can you actually buy with 1 BTC right now? 😁😁😁

All this implies is that while the upside is massive, the potential for loss is equally significant.

hollowmoose21 said:If that actually happens, I’m tossing my entire economics degree in the trash and focusing on my real job—or maybe just moving out to the sticks to grow hazelnuts. 😁
Honestly, I think the Fed and other big banks will have much bigger fires to put out this year or next. 🍿

Blackberries aren't a bad choice either—they're pretty hardy against harsh weather. 😁

analogwolf10 said:What’s your take on the future of gold?

What kind of future are we even talking about? You might as well jump into the gold market yourself.

Think about it this way: whether you plan to sell a house for gold twenty years from now or simply try to squirrel away cash, the fundamental outcome remains largely the same. The only real variables are how much gold you managed to accumulate, the quality of the home you built, and how much you actually saved. In any scenario, you're inevitably facing the same headwinds—inflation, taxes, or even global conflict. Someone always ends up footing the bill. You can come out ahead if you're prepared to liquidate when prices peak, but if you find yourself waiting until the very last minute, you'll likely watch half your value evaporate. I think it's important to realize that relying on passive interest rates is a relic of the past; nowadays, everything comes down to how actively you work to secure your wealth.

Amanda Allen4 said:It hasn't changed for five thousand years.

Gold is solid money—it actually holds its value unlike fiat—but let’s be realistic: it isn't a state currency. That means (for now) you still have to convert it, just like you would with Bitcoin (our "digital gold"), if you actually want to buy anything.

Sure, there’s a transaction cost, and its value fluctuates when measured against some government-issued cash—but isn't that an infinitely smaller risk than holding money that is systematically losing purchasing power by the day? Or worse, facing the danger of it vanishing entirely? This isn't exactly uncharted territory, is it? 😁.)

For those who haven't done their homework: https://medium.com/@brettking/why-mo...g-6cff3f9ebd9d

How can you say it hasn't changed when the price swings by $500 at a time?

mistyotter44 said:How can you say it hasn't changed when the price swings by $500 at a time?

Just look at how everything else fluctuates when measured against gold:

http://pricedingold.com

Amanda Allen4 said:Just look at how everything else fluctuates when measured against gold:

http://pricedingold.com

the Japanese Yen remains the most stable currency.

Back in 1925, a Ford Model T was priced at $300, which amounted to slightly less than 15 ounces of gold...

Fast forward to a 2018 Ford Focus, retailing for roughly $20,000, or about 15 ounces of gold...

Gold prices might swing wildly due to speculation in the short term, but its long-term value retention remains an absolute certainty...

Taylor Robinson51 said:Back in 1925, a Ford Model T was priced at $300, which amounted to slightly less than 15 ounces of gold...

Fast forward to a 2018 Ford Focus, retailing for roughly $20,000, or about 15 ounces of gold...

Gold prices might swing wildly due to speculation in the short term, but its long-term value retention remains an absolute certainty...

If someone is looking to preserve their purchasing power through gold over a twenty-year stretch, but they don't have the financial cushion to absorb any potential dips during that period, I'm honestly at a loss for words. You simply have to adapt as inflation rises and falls. It’s much like how an interest rate might look great for twenty years, only for inflation to surge and wipe out all those gains, leaving you right back where you started. You have to be proactive. Just looking at the charts, gold actually held more value back in 2012 than it does today.

In major hubs like New York, Hong Kong, or Sydney, real estate is often the superior play; and so far, prices haven't seen a significant correction yet.

Anyone else ever tried buying gold using crypto? I’m betting the margins are absolutely insane.

mistyotter44 said:If someone is looking to preserve their purchasing power through gold over a twenty-year stretch, but they don't have the financial cushion to absorb any potential dips during that period, I'm honestly at a loss for words. You simply have to adapt as inflation rises and falls. It’s much like how an interest rate might look great for twenty years, only for inflation to surge and wipe out all those gains, leaving you right back where you started. You have to be proactive. Just looking at the charts, gold actually held more value back in 2012 than it does today.

In major hubs like New York, Hong Kong, or Sydney, real estate is often the superior play; and so far, prices haven't seen a significant correction yet.

Gold should be a component of every investment portfolio at a specific percentage; obviously, one shouldn't hold everything in gold. Take Brown's permanent portfolio, for instance, as an example of a portfolio designed to withstand various shocks.

Extrapolating the future based on data from 1980, 1999, 2012, or 2017 is nothing more than palm reading. A massive amount of real estate investment leading up to 2008 was built on models that axiomatically assumed property prices could never fall because they hadn't fallen globally in 70 years in the USA. Then, predictably, it happened—prices plummeted to US levels.

The notion that active investing can prevent losses was actually the catalyst for the great crash of 1987—everyone introduced trading machines that automatically triggered sell orders once a margin call was initiated. When distortions occur during a panic, absurd things happen. For example, in 2008, a money market fund fell below the dollar, which was considered virtually impossible.

To quote Warren Buffett from his recent letter to investors regarding why he holds $120 billion in short-term US Treasuries:

"During the 2008-2009 crisis, we liked having Treasury Bills that protected us from having to rely on funding sources such as bank lines or commercial paper. We have intentionally constructed Berkshire in a manner that will allow it to comfortably withstand economic discontinuities, including such extremes as extended market closures."