Gold: Past, Present, and Future

First off, it’s hard to tell where the bottom actually is.
Second, given how this "market" operates, anything can happen.
Third, Spain hasn't even been granted any aid—they're just bailing out the banks, not the country itself...

nimblepanther18 said:My goal is to catch the bottom—to be positioned as close to the floor as possible. Is it actually feasible to predict if this news will drive metal prices even lower, or will it serve as a signal for a rally? It was just confirmed that the US government approved a $100 billion bailout package, but I suspect that amount falls short of what is truly required to stabilize things...

The bottom likely hit on May 16th at $1526.

nimblepanther18 said:In about a week, Greece will head to the polls for an election that essentially decides their fate: will they accept the bailout conditions, or leave the monetary union entirely? Meanwhile, we’re getting fresh reports that Spanish banks are expected to formally request rescue packages in the coming days.

I'm curious—how much of an impact will a potential Greek exit and the Spanish bank bailouts have on precious metal prices? Everything seems poised to boil over within the next two or three weeks, if not sooner. How are you all preparing for this volatility?

I’ve already positioned myself—recently picked up some AGQ at $41.64 and SLW at $24.56... I might have caught a better entry point, but it isn't critical; the prices seem reasonable, especially if silver hits $50 by year-end.😉

Copper prices are surging... I'll check back in the morning and afternoon to see how the pricing trends are playing out. That said, I have a nagging feeling this might just be a momentary spike, perhaps a brief rally before we test those lows from the last downturn. If it doesn't happen immediately, we might see it later this summer—assuming, of course, that no other unforeseen crises arise.

So, we’ve got news about those Spanish banks getting a recapitalization—which is really just a fancy way of saying they’re being bailed out with more loans—and naturally, the Prime Minister is seeing a slight dip today. The economy is finally starting to show some signs of life, so you know everyone’s going to come crawling back to start investing again. Don't hold your breath. Just a minor slide for now.
As my buddy above mentioned, there might be new elections coming up in Greece, which could definitely throw a wrench in things, though it's just as likely we'll continue this whole mess without any major drama.

Jerry Clark72 said:From what I can tell, they're mostly suggesting jewelry or just tiny amounts of gold.

I'm pretty sure buying jewelry just to flip it for profit is a losing game.

Just your typical American news rag—written by someone who clearly hasn't the slightest clue what they're talking about, so they just regurgitate two or three sources and toss in a few mindless, bite-sized comments.
Obviously, buying jewelry as an investment is a joke—between jeweler margins, sales tax, and luxury taxes, you're looking at over 50% of the retail price gone instantly. Even those souvenir gold coins you see at tourist traps aren't worth it; their markup is way higher than the actual gold content. In the US, buying official bullion coins isn't even worth the hassle because the prices get hiked through the roof by taxes. Up until recently, the margins were insane—when people were buying "scrap gold," they were probably paying something like 50% above the actual metal value. Nowadays, I think these buyback shops are only offering maybe 10% below spot.

That’s why in free countries, you can actually pick up gold or silver at a price that's only a single-digit percentage above the market rate, without getting hammered by taxes. But look, buying physical metal isn't meant for day trading—that's for the folks who want to hold onto it long-term, like a "worst-case scenario" stash. If you're looking to day trade, an ETF is the right kind of casino.

The only way it makes sense to sell physical gold back to a dealer is if things go south and the economy hits a total meltdown, causing such a massive spike in bullion prices that the spread becomes worth it. Silver is a whole different beast—that should see some serious growth over time.

Man, if the Treasury Secretary heard you guys... you aren't even paying your taxes, yet here you are giving tips on how to dodge them 😬

Today, we're seeing metal manipulation based on the UP...😍

Patrick Moore3 said:Man, if the Treasury Secretary heard you guys... you aren't even paying your taxes, yet here you are giving tips on how to dodge them 😬

I haven't paid the IRS a single dime in over ten years—well, maybe the occasional coffee when I'm back visiting the States. Honestly, I’m actually rooting for them to mess up the math on my bills so much that I don't end up owing them anything then, either.

http://www.inflateordie.com/files/Wh...06-14-2012.pdf

Dropping this here—seems like an interesting read to me.

Anyway, what’s the word on next week regarding the Federal Reserve? Personally, I’m not feeling like Quantitative Easing is actually gonna happen.

BlackRock is going to step in once things finally settle down over at the European Union—you know, basically just waiting for the bureaucrats to cough up some new bailout scheme or whatever they call their "rescue plans" these days—but until then, there’s really no point in even talking about it.

Things in the USA aren't getting any better; if anything, they're just headed south.
It’s pretty safe to assume the Federal Reserve, the Fed, and the Bank of England will all start printing money at the exact same time just to try and "save" things.

It looks like there's a solid chance the Democratic Party pulls off a win in the upcoming elections over in Greece—which, let’s be honest, is basically being framed as the "savior" move to keep them tethered to the European Central Bank. Even the folks over at Syriza have gone on record saying they'd stick with the ECB too. But since their funding got cut off, you can bet someone might try to grease a few palms to ensure a certain outcome. Either way, Syriza and the Republican Party were neck-and-neck last time, so we're looking at a razor-thin margin where just a handful of votes could flip the whole script—especially with that Greek system where the winner grabs a 50-seat bonus while the rest is split proportionally (out of 300 total).

I’ve got my doubts that anything massive is actually brewing for those Greek elections. Most likely, we're just seeing a temporary cooling-off period within the European Union, and they'll probably roll out some Quantitative Easing later on just to satisfy election-year optics. If Obama plays that joker card too early, it’s going to backfire spectacularly—not that anyone seems surprised that QE usually offers nothing more than a fleeting, limited fix.

It’s pretty obvious the media and the people pulling the strings will do whatever it takes to ensure the "right" party or coalition wins the election—they just can't risk letting someone like Greece jeopardize the whole European project...
The addict analogy is pretty clear here—you need higher and higher doses just to get the same effect, and the intervals get shorter and shorter. Until it finally kills you.

Honestly, I think those Greek leftists are nothing more than total posers. Once that studio scandal hits the fan, the extreme fascist right won't even touch a seat in Parliament—those votes are just going straight to the pro-EU right-wing parties.
If Greece decides to bail on the eurozone, or if the whole euro thing starts falling apart, don't hold your breath waiting for a bailout from anyone—not the US, not China, nobody. You can bet on it. If the FED starts printing dollars too early, it’ll strip away any leverage Obama has, and that isn't happening because he must be re-elected (just look back at that conversation with Medvedev) 😍

I don't have any doubt the elections will be rigged. It’s like Stalin used to say—it doesn't matter who casts the votes, only who counts them.
And if by some miracle the left actually wins, I bet they'll flip the script fast enough. It'd be even more unbelievable if they actually told the Germans "fuck you" and pulled out of the global economy.
But hey, this is the US, anything can happen.🙂

Anthony Evans78 said:I don't have any doubt the elections will be rigged. It’s like Stalin used to say—it doesn't matter who casts the votes, only who counts them.
And if by some miracle the left actually wins, I bet they'll flip the script fast enough. It'd be even more unbelievable if they actually told the Germans "fuck you" and pulled out of the global economy.
But hey, this is the US, anything can happen.🙂

So, does a half percent drop mean we should expect prices to plummet any time now? 🙂

Walter Barrett8 said:So, does a half percent drop mean we should expect prices to plummet any time now? 🙂

Oh, you can bet on a dip coming mid-week—probably Wednesday or Thursday 😍

Melissa Sanchez17 said:Oh, you can bet on a dip coming mid-week—probably Wednesday or Thursday 😍

I'm pretty damn sure the Federal Reserve isn't going to announce Quantitative Easing—or any other flavor of money printing—this Wednesday. They aren't even going to drop a hint about it. Which means we're looking at a plunge followed by a retest down to $1523.

placidlynx43 said:I'm pretty damn sure the Federal Reserve isn't going to announce Quantitative Easing—or any other flavor of money printing—this Wednesday. They aren't even going to drop a hint about it. Which means we're looking at a plunge followed by a retest down to $1523.

Honestly, it looks to me like gold doesn't give a damn about Quantitative Easing right now—or even the Dollar. We might see a little correction, but it'll be short-lived before we head straight for 1700.