Gold: Past, Present, and Future

Anthony Evans78 said:Where does this obsession with knowing the exact number come from?
I don't know what the exact figure will be, but it’s going to be lower than it is now.
If you haven't noticed, the value drops a little more every single day.🙂
And I've said it a hundred times already: gold isn't the only answer—real wealth is in land and manufacturing.

Sure, prepping—hunting, foraging, survivalist stuff—is fine if you're planning for a total collapse. But looking past 2020, high tech is going to be the real driver. And I don't mean iPhones; those are a dead end and a fading fad. I mean actual, heavy-duty technological leaps. Agriculture alone isn't going to propel civilization forward. Everyone seems terrified of advanced tech, but that’s exactly what we need to push us into the next phase—maybe solving energy issues in twenty years or so (though we haven't really hit that wall yet since there's still plenty of oil lying around somewhere). If you want to actually play a role in the world of the next decade, you should have your patents ready to go right now. Honestly, I don't see where America fits into that high-stakes race. We might end up just being a giant retirement home or some niche organic farming hub. That's fine, I guess, but it’s definitely not the major leagues driving global progress.

quiettrucker12 said:Sure, prepping—hunting, foraging, survivalist stuff—is fine if you're planning for a total collapse. But looking past 2020, high tech is going to be the real driver. And I don't mean iPhones; those are a dead end and a fading fad. I mean actual, heavy-duty technological leaps. Agriculture alone isn't going to propel civilization forward. Everyone seems terrified of advanced tech, but that’s exactly what we need to push us into the next phase—maybe solving energy issues in twenty years or so (though we haven't really hit that wall yet since there's still plenty of oil lying around somewhere). If you want to actually play a role in the world of the next decade, you should have your patents ready to go right now. Honestly, I don't see where America fits into that high-stakes race. We might end up just being a giant retirement home or some niche organic farming hub. That's fine, I guess, but it’s definitely not the major leagues driving global progress.

Signature.
Once the land is basically trashed from over-farming and acid rain, and we're dealing with skies dumping aluminum and boron on us... I don't know, we'll probably just have to suck up to thosetech giants because they’ll be the ones holding the magic wand for everything from our food to our meds.
Sorry for going off-topic here....
🙂

quiettrucker12 said:Gold is interesting right now because we’re in that middle ground where commodities thrive while currencies sink during a crisis. But don't get it twisted—that doesn't mean currencies are going extinct, just like stocks didn't vanish back in 2008 or when things tanked again in 2014. I say "middle ground" because gold isn't particularly exciting during a total apocalypse, nor is it helpful in some rosy fantasy where someone magically wipes out debt without inflation. The ones getting hit hardest will be the funds and individuals sitting on mountains of cash. There's way too much of it floating around. The smart money? The few who actually time it right by pivoting from commodities into undervalued stocks.

Once cash loses its value, it might actually become interesting because interest rates would have to climb. For instance, if you’re holding ten-year Treasuries yielding 10% while inflation is hovering at 15%, that could look like a massive win if the government manages to slash the deficit and stall inflation in the meantime. It’s a plausible scenario; they won't have the money to spend anyway, so deflationary pressures will linger, keeping cash somewhat valuable. Creating enough capacity for hyperinflation is difficult when most people are broke.
If a new credit cycle were to somehow kickstart itself, the story changes entirely.
On the other hand, it's unlikely that stocks will fall significantly below the value of cash in an inflationary environment. You just need to identify which stocks are undervalued, much like how gold and silver were positioned around 2000.

Robert Vaughn10 said:Once cash loses its value, it might actually become interesting because interest rates would have to climb. For instance, if you’re holding ten-year Treasuries yielding 10% while inflation is hovering at 15%, that could look like a massive win if the government manages to slash the deficit and stall inflation in the meantime. It’s a plausible scenario; they won't have the money to spend anyway, so deflationary pressures will linger, keeping cash somewhat valuable. Creating enough capacity for hyperinflation is difficult when most people are broke.
If a new credit cycle were to somehow kickstart itself, the story changes entirely.
On the other hand, it's unlikely that stocks will fall significantly below the value of cash in an inflationary environment. You just need to identify which stocks are undervalued, much like how gold and silver were positioned around 2000.

Right now, people are out here grabbing bonds with negative real yields just to try and hold onto some scrap of "value," but you're basically daydreaming that bond prices are gonna hit the moon... as if someone's just gonna magically fix one of those massive, core reasons why the West even functions—both on paper and in the real world—which is basically having debt that gets absolutely shredded by inflation.
Correct me if I'm totally missing the mark here, I guess.
LATER-🙂

Dennis Myers6 said:Right now, people are out here grabbing bonds with negative real yields just to try and hold onto some scrap of "value," but you're basically daydreaming that bond prices are gonna hit the moon... as if someone's just gonna magically fix one of those massive, core reasons why the West even functions—both on paper and in the real world—which is basically having debt that gets absolutely shredded by inflation.
Correct me if I'm totally missing the mark here, I guess.
LATER-🙂

Nobody buys bonds with a negative yield. Inflation isn't quite there yet outside of the US, but it's highly probable for the European Union too, given that debts and deficits can no longer be covered. Once a mania hits precious metals and cash loses its worth, that's when money becomes undervalued. That might be the time to enter an undervalued asset. You'll just need to time it right—likely when the crisis actually starts getting resolved and interest rates remain high. Essentially, once the value of cash (read: debt) is wiped out, combining debt write-offs could create breathing room for the economy to function again, which would allow those bonds to actually be paid out.

Robert Vaughn10 said:Nobody buys bonds with a negative yield. Inflation isn't quite there yet outside of the US, but it's highly probable for the European Union too, given that debts and deficits can no longer be covered. Once a mania hits precious metals and cash loses its worth, that's when money becomes undervalued. That might be the time to enter an undervalued asset. You'll just need to time it right—likely when the crisis actually starts getting resolved and interest rates remain high. Essentially, once the value of cash (read: debt) is wiped out, combining debt write-offs could create breathing room for the economy to function again, which would allow those bonds to actually be paid out.

Germany just sold off bonds at a negative yield, which is wild.
Well, when it's time to party, you know it's gonna be crazy.
And I guess people—or sheep, or whatever you want to call them—just keep having this blind, absolute faith in their own homeland, even though the folks in charge basically exploit them to death (because let's face it, the government isn't exactly rolling out the red carpet for ten thousand new, smart Americans just because they all have massive MPF accounts and look as good as Goran Višnjić or Nives Celzijus).
Stay tuned...
🙂

Dennis Myers6 said:Germany just sold off bonds at a negative yield, which is wild.
Well, when it's time to party, you know it's gonna be crazy.
And I guess people—or sheep, or whatever you want to call them—just keep having this blind, absolute faith in their own homeland, even though the folks in charge basically exploit them to death (because let's face it, the government isn't exactly rolling out the red carpet for ten thousand new, smart Americans just because they all have massive MPF accounts and look as good as Goran Višnjić or Nives Celzijus).
Stay tuned...
🙂

I was referring to the bonds of those Eurozone countries currently facing a crisis. It isn't the same thing if interest rates are around 2%, like in Germany, versus 6%, like in Spain, while using the exact same currency. Officially, inflation hasn't hit that level in the Eurozone yet. I certainly wouldn't underestimate deflationary pressures. But once interest rates climb because money starts losing its value...

Robert Vaughn10 said:I was referring to the bonds of those Eurozone countries currently facing a crisis. It isn't the same thing if interest rates are around 2%, like in Germany, versus 6%, like in Spain, while using the exact same currency. Officially, inflation hasn't hit that level in the Eurozone yet. I certainly wouldn't underestimate deflationary pressures. But once interest rates climb because money starts losing its value...

Look, HI5, I don't mean to be rude, but honestly, we’re just a bunch of absolute suckers—these over-analytical types who somehow decide to dump money into failing nations and their collapsing economies despite everything being totally illogical.
I guess we just love them or whatever, choosing them even when it makes zero sense from any kind of economic standpoint... it is what it is, I suppose.
🙂

Dennis Myers6 said:Look, HI5, I don't mean to be rude, but honestly, we’re just a bunch of absolute suckers—these over-analytical types who somehow decide to dump money into failing nations and their collapsing economies despite everything being totally illogical.
I guess we just love them or whatever, choosing them even when it makes zero sense from any kind of economic standpoint... it is what it is, I suppose.
🙂

That's fair, but eventually the system will clear its debt and move forward. I wouldn't touch bonds right now, but who knows what the future holds?
Plus, trading with negative yields can actually be a smart move for security reasons if we hit a heavy deflationary period. You never know. Sometimes things make perfect sense even when they defy all logic.

lonehawk5 said:Ha-ha😛

You're getting ahead of yourself.
I have a feeling it's gonna take a hell of a lot longer for this kind of money—you know, actual paper cash—to completely vanish from circulation.😁

I’m not assuming paper money will just disappear overnight; rather, this current version will eventually collapse and be replaced by something else—just like it has happened countless times before. And during that decay process, plenty of people are going to get screwed over. Most people act like sheep, content to be sheared and slaughtered indefinitely.
This entire financial setup—which certainly isn't some new invention—is fundamentally broken at its core and is essentially destined to fail by design (and no, that isn't an accident; there is a whole crew profiting from the chaos).
Throughout history, many have seen through this, yet the vast majority of people in any society seem to fall into the same traps set by various bubbles and "institutions" or big banks... all driven by greed, selfishness, and corruption.
The greatest achievement of these architects of destiny is that they’ve convinced the sheep that this is perfectly normal—that these are just inevitable cycles we can't fight. People believe the system is fine, and they trust the very shepherds who are shearing and slaughtering them.

Thomas Jefferson
Quincy:

if the American people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their money, first via inflation and then via deflation, the banks and corporations that emerge around them will strip the people of their property until their children wake up homeless on the very continent their fathers conquered.

Quincy:

the banking system is a stain on all our constitutions, which, if left unaddressed, will lead to their total destruction... and I truly believe that banking institutions pose a greater threat than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money today to be paid by future generations... is nothing more than swindling the future on a massive scale.

Did bankers back in Thomas Jefferson's day really have CDSs and derivatives?

I wouldn't even try comparing things from 200 years ago to what we're dealing with today. Sure, human stupidity and greed stay exactly the same, but that's about it. Paper money isn't going anywhere, period. It might eventually get swapped out for digital currency, but then what? You'll just be sitting there waiting another 100 years for that system to crash too!

ironstag8 said:Sure, they're visible—as long as you have enough power to run a monitor.

And they're easy to swap, provided there's actually someone left willing to take them.

The thing is, both the electricity and those buyers are going to become increasingly scarce.

And what happens when the grid goes down, you're sitting on a pile of scrap metal, and the local Walmart can't even sell you groceries because their registers are dead?😂

Benjamin King2 said:Honestly, just buy out a whole poultry farm and turn all those chickens into solid gold—I promise you nobody is going to be scanning individual birds with a metal detector. 😁

Haha, nice one! So we're just hunting for gold and pigs now?

quiettrucker12 said:Gold is interesting right now because we’re in that middle ground where commodities thrive while currencies sink during a crisis. But don't get it twisted—that doesn't mean currencies are going extinct, just like stocks didn't vanish back in 2008 or when things tanked again in 2014. I say "middle ground" because gold isn't particularly exciting during a total apocalypse, nor is it helpful in some rosy fantasy where someone magically wipes out debt without inflation. The ones getting hit hardest will be the funds and individuals sitting on mountains of cash. There's way too much of it floating around. The smart money? The few who actually time it right by pivoting from commodities into undervalued stocks.

Man, you're probably the only sane person on this entire board. You actually treat gold like a real commodity instead of some ancient relic. And you aren't even getting caught up in the 👍
hype. Everyone else is just busy arguing over nothing.

analogharbor44 said:Did bankers back in Thomas Jefferson's day really have CDSs and derivatives?

I wouldn't even try comparing things from 200 years ago to what we're dealing with today. Sure, human stupidity and greed stay exactly the same, but that's about it. Paper money isn't going anywhere, period. It might eventually get swapped out for digital currency, but then what? You'll just be sitting there waiting another 100 years for that system to crash too!

Look, inventing a newer, shinier pair of shears or a more efficient way to slaughter sheep doesn't change the fundamental reality: the sheep still gets sheared and the sheep still gets slaughtered.

Why shouldn't you draw those parallels? Human nature hasn't evolved one bit—and neither has the core machinery of the financial system. That goes for 200 years ago, 500 years ago, or even 1,000... it's all the same pattern.
Do you honestly think that just because we live in "modern" times, human idiocy and corruption have somehow vanished? Does being "modern" mean diseases, wars, or scams are suddenly impossible? Does it mean all the chaos and misery humans have endured throughout history can't happen in this era? Not a chance.

The point here isn't about how long you wait—it's about whether you're actually prepared for the moment the current system finally buckles. Maybe you believe this whole setup can limp along for another century without any major tremors, and hey, that's fine if that's your take. Time will eventually tell who was right.

Regarding Jefferson, maybe politicians back then were a bit cleaner, but nowadays? I don't even know if it's worse when Wall Street bankers are calling the shots instead of the people in D.C. It all ends up being the same thing 😍

If you ask me, Jackson was actually a much bigger fan:

http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread685271/pg1

☕

Not bad.
Only thing is, he’s got a son on the other side too (ya know, a real native American...).
🙂

Robert Vaughn10 said:Once cash loses its value, it might actually become interesting because interest rates would have to climb. For instance, if you’re holding ten-year Treasuries yielding 10% while inflation is hovering at 15%, that could look like a massive win if the government manages to slash the deficit and stall inflation in the meantime. It’s a plausible scenario; they won't have the money to spend anyway, so deflationary pressures will linger, keeping cash somewhat valuable. Creating enough capacity for hyperinflation is difficult when most people are broke.
If a new credit cycle were to somehow kickstart itself, the story changes entirely.
On the other hand, it's unlikely that stocks will fall significantly below the value of cash in an inflationary environment. You just need to identify which stocks are undervalued, much like how gold and silver were positioned around 2000.

I think I'm on the same page as you.
It feels to me like most of this newly injected liquidity just disappears into a black hole of sovereign debt and interbank transactions. Because of that, we might be stuck waiting quite a while until enough money volume actually accumulates to spark a new cycle. Until then, we’ll probably deal with deflationary pressure, or stagflation, or biflation, or whatever fancy term people decide to use to describe asset differentiation.

Once it finally does start moving, we could very quickly flip to the opposite extreme—galloping inflation. Historically, the remedy for that has always been hiking interest rates. Across the board, including on government bonds. So, that seems pretty certain. But then again, as with everything else: timing is everything.😁

Since everyone is throwing names around now😁:
I'm genuinely curious 'who's gonna have the balls' to tame the inflation beast, the way Paul Volcker did.

analogharbor44 said:And what happens when the grid goes down, you're sitting on a pile of scrap metal, and the local Walmart can't even sell you groceries because their registers are dead?😂

I guess that’s exactly why I came to this conclusion back in the spring—watching all the chaos during those election cycles over in Europe and tracking how these big banks operate. It seems to me a traditional bank run isn't really a thing anymore. Not in this digital age, anyway.

All they really need to do is freeze cash withdrawals and maybe slap some limits on international transfers, while keeping credit card swipes at the grocery store or online payments working just fine. And et voilà, the system stays upright.