#1 ·
US Treasury Auction Disaster Stirs Crisis Contagion Concern; Treasury Bonds, Euro Fall
wow. This is moving way faster than I anticipated. There are really only two ways to save the Euro in its current state.
One is for the Federal Reserve to start buying up massive amounts of bonds (without essentially monetizing the debt), but they lack a federal taxing authority like we have here in the US to back the central bank and guarantee Euro issuances. A central bank can only act as a lender of last resort if the currency itself is sovereign. By joining the Euro in this specific setup, Eurozone countries basically surrendered that central banking function. Not a single country in the Eurozone today actually possesses a sovereign lender of last resort. That’s exactly why Europeans ended up begging the Chinese and the IMF to step in and help bail out nations that are either totally insolvent (like Greece) or just drowning in liquidity issues (like Italy).
The second option is for the Eurozone to issue common bonds. Both paths require massive transfers of wealth from the rich north to the struggling south, which is a political non-starter. Even if there were any political will to do it, the sheer bureaucracy of how the Eurozone is structured means institutionalizing either solution would take a massive amount of time—time they simply don't have left. Plus, that first option carries a huge inflation risk, something there is absolutely zero political appetite for in Germany.
At this point, it feels increasingly likely that the peripheral nations will just exit the Euro entirely. We might even see a total collapse, especially since some analyses suggest an exit would actually make sense for France too.
US Treasury yield spike after Germany failed to get bids for 35 percent of the 10-year bonds offered for sale today, propelling US markets higher and Dollar lower on concern the region’s debt crisis is driving away investors.
wow. This is moving way faster than I anticipated. There are really only two ways to save the Euro in its current state.
One is for the Federal Reserve to start buying up massive amounts of bonds (without essentially monetizing the debt), but they lack a federal taxing authority like we have here in the US to back the central bank and guarantee Euro issuances. A central bank can only act as a lender of last resort if the currency itself is sovereign. By joining the Euro in this specific setup, Eurozone countries basically surrendered that central banking function. Not a single country in the Eurozone today actually possesses a sovereign lender of last resort. That’s exactly why Europeans ended up begging the Chinese and the IMF to step in and help bail out nations that are either totally insolvent (like Greece) or just drowning in liquidity issues (like Italy).
The second option is for the Eurozone to issue common bonds. Both paths require massive transfers of wealth from the rich north to the struggling south, which is a political non-starter. Even if there were any political will to do it, the sheer bureaucracy of how the Eurozone is structured means institutionalizing either solution would take a massive amount of time—time they simply don't have left. Plus, that first option carries a huge inflation risk, something there is absolutely zero political appetite for in Germany.
At this point, it feels increasingly likely that the peripheral nations will just exit the Euro entirely. We might even see a total collapse, especially since some analyses suggest an exit would actually make sense for France too.