Keynes and American Economic Thought" Book Launch: A New Dawn or a Walking Dead Scenario?

Bradley Walker88 said:Probability doesn't capture all "knowledge." Throwing in a probability and a standard deviation doesn't account for total uncertainty. These models completely ignore human action and consciousness. People aren't marbles or subatomic particles.
How do you model something when you don't even realize what you don't know? And the worst part is trying to deal with the things you don't even realize you *do* know. 😁

Elizabeth Harris11 said:That’s exactly why aggregation is necessary—it allows us to level out those individual preferences at a broader scale.

Elizabeth Harris11 said:That’s exactly why aggregation is necessary—it allows us to level out those individual preferences at a broader scale.

Elizabeth Harris11 said:Aggregation is everywhere. It’s not some fancy concept cooked up by economists, mathematicians, or the devil himself—it’s just reality. I know you lot have all read a bit of Mises, and now it sounds great to you, so you're out here peddling this philosophy of "don't aggregate." But honestly? That’s a double-edged sword. The devil really is in the details...
Let me explain how the world aggregates me, whether I like it or not. It forces me into this purely logical equation.

Everyone is blowing trumpets about how we Americans are drowning in debt. You know what I mean—"we Americans"—that's aggregation right there. They say the national debt is trillions, or that every American baby is born $40,000 in the hole, and so on. See what I did there? Aggregation again.

Here’s my situation: I don't owe anyone a dime. In fact, my checking account isn't even in the red. My total liabilities $0.00 are zero dollars; if anything, people actually owe *me* money. So, I'm asking you—based on Mises, Hayk, and the rest of the crew—why should I care if you or the rest of the Americans are broke when I'm not? Free markets, free economy, everyone is responsible for their own mess, free labor, price discovery, all that good stuff.

But look, it doesn't work like that. Since I don't owe anything, my standard of living should technically be better than everyone else's, right? Wrong. Here's the kicker: aggregation. Because someone like Ed Koch blew billions of dollars on vanity projects, local parks, or other nonsense, they’re going to hike up my local childcare costs by like 1000%! See how I'm being aggregated by his debt? Even though I have zero debt and pay every single tax on time, my quality of life is going to take a hit because of his spending. It’ll happen with public transit, too.

Now, Mises would say, "Fine, then shut down the public daycare centers. Who cares? Let them pay for Ed Koch's reckless spending. The market will fix itself, and private daycares will pop up at affordable prices." Sure, maybe they will, but not by tomorrow morning. They have to be built, and private investors have to step up to the plate first. By then, my kid will already be in school, and I'll be stuck dealing with the fallout. (See how I used aggregation there, but in a time context?)

Now, you might argue, "Well, that was a public service, and it failed, so that's why it happened." But listen—aggregation happens in the private sector, too. For instance, if everyone takes out loans and then a crisis hits, bad debt starts piling up. When bad debt rises, interest rates climb so banks can cover their losses. I'm not taking out a loan, so you'd think I'm safe, right? Wrong. Everyone else is taking loans—the farmer for his seeds, the dairy guy for supplies, the manufacturer for materials, or my local wholesaler for inventory. Higher credit costs for them means higher margins, which means more expensive goods for me. (See how I'm being aggregated again?)

You see how it works. I wouldn't want to get involved in this debate, but the problem is that whether I want it or not, aggregation bleeds directly into my daily life.

Elizabeth Harris11 said:Aggregation is everywhere. It’s not some fancy concept cooked up by economists, mathematicians, or the devil himself—it’s just reality. I know you lot have all read a bit of Mises, and now it sounds great to you, so you're out here peddling this philosophy of "don't aggregate." But honestly? That’s a double-edged sword. The devil really is in the details...
Let me explain how the world aggregates me, whether I like it or not. It forces me into this purely logical equation.

Everyone is blowing trumpets about how we Americans are drowning in debt. You know what I mean—"we Americans"—that's aggregation right there. They say the national debt is trillions, or that every American baby is born $40,000 in the hole, and so on. See what I did there? Aggregation again.

Here’s my situation: I don't owe anyone a dime. In fact, my checking account isn't even in the red. My total liabilities $0.00 are zero dollars; if anything, people actually owe *me* money. So, I'm asking you—based on Mises, Hayk, and the rest of the crew—why should I care if you or the rest of the Americans are broke when I'm not? Free markets, free economy, everyone is responsible for their own mess, free labor, price discovery, all that good stuff.

But look, it doesn't work like that. Since I don't owe anything, my standard of living should technically be better than everyone else's, right? Wrong. Here's the kicker: aggregation. Because someone like Ed Koch blew billions of dollars on vanity projects, local parks, or other nonsense, they’re going to hike up my local childcare costs by like 1000%! See how I'm being aggregated by his debt? Even though I have zero debt and pay every single tax on time, my quality of life is going to take a hit because of his spending. It’ll happen with public transit, too.

Now, Mises would say, "Fine, then shut down the public daycare centers. Who cares? Let them pay for Ed Koch's reckless spending. The market will fix itself, and private daycares will pop up at affordable prices." Sure, maybe they will, but not by tomorrow morning. They have to be built, and private investors have to step up to the plate first. By then, my kid will already be in school, and I'll be stuck dealing with the fallout. (See how I used aggregation there, but in a time context?)

Now, you might argue, "Well, that was a public service, and it failed, so that's why it happened." But listen—aggregation happens in the private sector, too. For instance, if everyone takes out loans and then a crisis hits, bad debt starts piling up. When bad debt rises, interest rates climb so banks can cover their losses. I'm not taking out a loan, so you'd think I'm safe, right? Wrong. Everyone else is taking loans—the farmer for his seeds, the dairy guy for supplies, the manufacturer for materials, or my local wholesaler for inventory. Higher credit costs for them means higher margins, which means more expensive goods for me. (See how I'm being aggregated again?)

You see how it works. I wouldn't want to get involved in this debate, but the problem is that whether I want it or not, aggregation bleeds directly into my daily life.

Elizabeth Harris11 said:Aggregation is everywhere. It’s not some fancy concept cooked up by economists, mathematicians, or the devil himself—it’s just reality. I know you lot have all read a bit of Mises, and now it sounds great to you, so you're out here peddling this philosophy of "don't aggregate." But honestly? That’s a double-edged sword. The devil really is in the details...
Let me explain how the world aggregates me, whether I like it or not. It forces me into this purely logical equation.

Everyone is blowing trumpets about how we Americans are drowning in debt. You know what I mean—"we Americans"—that's aggregation right there. They say the national debt is trillions, or that every American baby is born $40,000 in the hole, and so on. See what I did there? Aggregation again.

Here’s my situation: I don't owe anyone a dime. In fact, my checking account isn't even in the red. My total liabilities $0.00 are zero dollars; if anything, people actually owe *me* money. So, I'm asking you—based on Mises, Hayk, and the rest of the crew—why should I care if you or the rest of the Americans are broke when I'm not? Free markets, free economy, everyone is responsible for their own mess, free labor, price discovery, all that good stuff.

But look, it doesn't work like that. Since I don't owe anything, my standard of living should technically be better than everyone else's, right? Wrong. Here's the kicker: aggregation. Because someone like Ed Koch blew billions of dollars on vanity projects, local parks, or other nonsense, they’re going to hike up my local childcare costs by like 1000%! See how I'm being aggregated by his debt? Even though I have zero debt and pay every single tax on time, my quality of life is going to take a hit because of his spending. It’ll happen with public transit, too.

Now, Mises would say, "Fine, then shut down the public daycare centers. Who cares? Let them pay for Ed Koch's reckless spending. The market will fix itself, and private daycares will pop up at affordable prices." Sure, maybe they will, but not by tomorrow morning. They have to be built, and private investors have to step up to the plate first. By then, my kid will already be in school, and I'll be stuck dealing with the fallout. (See how I used aggregation there, but in a time context?)

Now, you might argue, "Well, that was a public service, and it failed, so that's why it happened." But listen—aggregation happens in the private sector, too. For instance, if everyone takes out loans and then a crisis hits, bad debt starts piling up. When bad debt rises, interest rates climb so banks can cover their losses. I'm not taking out a loan, so you'd think I'm safe, right? Wrong. Everyone else is taking loans—the farmer for his seeds, the dairy guy for supplies, the manufacturer for materials, or my local wholesaler for inventory. Higher credit costs for them means higher margins, which means more expensive goods for me. (See how I'm being aggregated again?)

You see how it works. I wouldn't want to get involved in this debate, but the problem is that whether I want it or not, aggregation bleeds directly into my daily life.

Bradley Walker88 said:What is zero times one hundred? 😁
You clearly missed the point. It reminds me of how some neoclassical economist once reacted to the concept of radical uncertainty. His response was that such uncertainty couldn't be expressed through probability. Well... what is the probability of that kind of uncertainty? He looked for an answer within the specific framework he was trained in, failing to see that the flaw lies in the framework itself.

Not all bad things are purely negative, though. One man's trash is another man's treasure. While some people are busy obsessing over models, others see those exact same things as profit opportunities.😁

The issue isn't whether it happens, but what conclusions you draw from it.
The real problem arises when people mistake mathematical precision for actual accuracy.

Elizabeth Harris11 said:Were you actually trying to ask what 100 divided by 0 is? ☕ That would actually make sense given the context of what you wrote here. ☕

@Andrew Booth29
you totally missed the point of the rest of the post😁

The real issue is that all of you fall into the trap of believing in "perfect competition" as this magical self-correcting market mechanism—but honestly, that thing just doesn't exist in the real world.

Andrew Booth29 said:Yeah, the attack from my colleague Scorpio is basically a nirvana fallacy. He’s concluded that because the market isn't perfect, it's flawed. No shit, Sherlock. 🤣

But I can't really blame him—I mean, look at how those academic types built their entire case around the latest Nobel Prize in Economics (though, let's be honest, those professors have probably never actually applied for a job or had to hire a single person in their lives).

Gregory Nelson6 said:It's our mistake to believe in perfect competition, right?

And if we don't believe in perfect competition, then you'll feel the need to advise us on what exactly we *do* believe, since you clearly know better than we do.

So, here’s a list of my actual beliefs. If you don't think this is what I believe, please, by all means, explain to me what it is I believe so we can finally understand each other.

I believe in God the Father, Jesus Christ, and the Holy Spirit.

I believe that "excessive profit" isn't really a thing; there are only opportunities for solid earnings that eventually evaporate, only to pop up somewhere else.

An opportunity for good profit (which Keynesians conveniently label as "excessive profit") happens because people want to buy what is scarce, which drives prices up "beyond measure."

Selling sump pumps in Memphis after the Mississippi floods at ten times the usual price isn't shameful—it's helping people in need. It isn't heartless exploitation; it's simply being sharp enough to notice what people actually require.

That's a skill most Americans have lost. Now, all they have left is to rely on the political machine of someone like a local mayor who will aggregate them, only to charge them 1,000 percent more for a daycare center starting January 1st.

When pump prices skyrocket in Memphis, maybe you, colleague Scorpio (though I doubt it), will finally realize how one could earn a hundred salaries in a single day in Memphis. You'd do it just so you could afford private daycare for your kid, or maybe just so you could give a certain corrupt politician a piece of your mind.

Of course, you can't pull a move like that in Memphis because Keynes is waiting in the wings with his economic models and the resulting legislation. They'll demand to know why you aren't importing infinite quantities of pumps, where the certifications are, where the American manuals are, where the trained staff is, and where the eco-certificates are.

Don't try to tell me about seizing an opportunity for "excessive profit." Because if it were that easy to earn a year's worth of private daycare tuition in a single afternoon, well, that would certainly upset the status quo and the people running the show.

That's why you are a proponent of aggregation and modeling. After all, who else could make a year's worth of childcare money in a single day without the "benevolent" protection of the establishment? They rely on people like you to keep their own interests safe.

Elizabeth Harris11 said:These are my favorite kinds of people 😂 those water pumps meant to save a few hundred homes 😂
Half of those orders could be handled by just two specialized companies—one of which is based out of San Diego. Man, you could honestly just head over to Aleta, grab 10 or 20 pumps right now, and go play hero in Memphis at a tenfold markup.😂

Actually, here's an even better idea: Home Depot is packed with those high-powered heat guns—I was there yesterday, and they literally had dozens of them on display. Once the water recedes, everyone's going to be desperate to dry out their walls.😂

Dude, just star otići u jutro kupiti i pravac Metković po desetorostruku zaradu.😁

Hey Koeg, Andrew Booth29, why wouldn't you just accuse the Austrians of committing a nirvana fallacy? It's the exact same logic.

Elizabeth Harris11 said:Were you actually trying to ask what 100 divided by 0 is? ☕ That would actually make sense given the context of what you wrote here. ☕

@Andrew Booth29
you totally missed the point of the rest of the post😁

The real issue is that all of you fall into the trap of believing in "perfect competition" as this magical self-correcting market mechanism—but honestly, that thing just doesn't exist in the real world.

Elizabeth Harris11 said:These are my favorite kinds of people 😂 those water pumps meant to save a few hundred homes 😂
Half of those orders could be handled by just two specialized companies—one of which is based out of San Diego. Man, you could honestly just head over to Aleta, grab 10 or 20 pumps right now, and go play hero in Memphis at a tenfold markup.😂

Actually, here's an even better idea: Home Depot is packed with those high-powered heat guns—I was there yesterday, and they literally had dozens of them on display. Once the water recedes, everyone's going to be desperate to dry out their walls.😂

Dude, just star otići u jutro kupiti i pravac Metković po desetorostruku zaradu.😁

Hey Koeg, Andrew Booth29, why wouldn't you just accuse the Austrians of committing a nirvana fallacy? It's the exact same logic.

Look, Andrew Booth29, I honestly don't see why you couldn't just pin the whole thing on the Austrians for committing a classic nirvana fallacy. It’s the exact same logic—nothing more, nothing less.

Gregory Nelson6 said:Colleague Scorpio, how did you manage to find my Achilles' heel? That Memphis example was a complete miss. My apologies.

What I actually meant to say is that the real business—the one with incredible margins that would fund a private preschool for your kids—is banking. Now, please tell me I'm wrong about that too?!

Elizabeth Harris11 said:Of course you aren't—if you want proof, just go ask the owners of those twenty little community banks across America how well they're doing. Banking is an incredibly expensive business to run, and the returns? Honestly, they're pretty modest.
But hey, if you're looking for a "good" business right now, just look at pushing debt onto people—you know, the totally legal kind.

Elizabeth Harris11 said:Were you actually trying to ask what 100 divided by 0 is? ☕ That would actually make sense given the context of what you wrote here. ☕

@Andrew Booth29
you totally missed the point of the rest of the post😁

The real issue is that all of you fall into the trap of believing in "perfect competition" as this magical self-correcting market mechanism—but honestly, that thing just doesn't exist in the real world.

Gregory Nelson6 said:My real question is this: is there anyone left in America who can actually stand up to people like Zvonimir Baletić and Đuro Medić? Or are we just stuck being crushed by the outdated theories of old-school socialist economists? In other words, are we doomed to hit a brick wall in slow motion—the very same wall these guys crawled out of like some kind of economic vampires?