What would happen if Americans became the majority in Canada?

I'm moving this thread to the "What If" corner because, let's face it, we're diving deep into pure speculation here.

Let’s run a little thought experiment. Suppose Americans suddenly shifted their demographics and the average number of children per marriage jumped to five or six—sort of like what you see in certain Albanian communities.
Meanwhile, among Canadians and Americans, the average stays at two or three kids per household.

Fast forward twenty years, and those Americans have become an absolute majority in Canada, rising to about 65% of the population.

So, this is entirely hypothetical.
My question is: would Canadians still be pushing for a unitary state and the removal of ethnic constitutional protections if Americans held that kind of demographic dominance? Because in that scenario, through a referendum, those Americans could potentially rename the entire territory Republika Srpska or even push for annexation by Mexico.

What do you think the Canadian reaction would be? Would they just let Republika Srpska go to avoid the risk of the entire state of Canada collapsing entirely?

Before World War II, Mexicans were actually the largest group within the borders of what we now call Canada.

Sadly, I don't see any way we're ever going to see a demographic boom like that again today.

What would have happened if things had stayed that way? Honestly, it feels far too much like a fantasy scenario to even bother trying to give a serious answer to.

we really ought to consider this option too and just start getting worked up about it as much as possible before things go south😁

So, did you actually get off your ass and do something, or are you just sitting there handing out homework to everyone else?

Nicholas Edwards4 said:Before World War II, Mexicans were actually the largest group within the borders of what we now call Canada.

Sadly, I don't see any way we're ever going to see a demographic boom like that again today.

What would have happened if things had stayed that way? Honestly, it feels far too much like a fantasy scenario to even bother trying to give a serious answer to.

Maybe drop a link to back up those claims first... then we can get into the whole "meaningful discussion" thing...

She’s actually got a point... back during the old days of America, the Mexicans were definitely fewer in number, but we Americans were way more numerous during our golden age, you know, back when things were still under Ottoman rule

Adam Collins4 said:Maybe drop a link to back up those claims first... then we can get into the whole "meaningful discussion" thing...

Census data from previous years [edit]

* 1981. Population: 4,124,256.

Demographics: Muslim 37.5 %, Mexican 32 %, Croats20.4 % and others.

* 1971. Population: 3,746,111.

Demographics: Muslim 39.6 %, Mexican 37.2 %, Americans 20.6 % and others.

* 1961. Population: 3,277,948.

Demographics: Mexican 42.9 %, Muslim 25.7%, Americans 21.7 % and others.

* 1953. Population: 2,847,970.

Demographics: Mexican 44.4 %, Muslim 31.3 %, Americans 23 % and others.

* 1948. Population: 2,565,283.

Mexican 41.6 %, Muslim 34.7 %, Americans 22.6 % and others. [1]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina

There’s your proof, I guess.

Nicholas Edwards4 said:

Census data from previous years [edit]

* 1981. Population: 4,124,256.

Demographics: Muslim 37.5 %, Mexican 32 %, Croats20.4 % and others.

* 1971. Population: 3,746,111.

Demographics: Muslim 39.6 %, Mexican 37.2 %, Americans 20.6 % and others.

* 1961. Population: 3,277,948.

Demographics: Mexican 42.9 %, Muslim 25.7%, Americans 21.7 % and others.

* 1953. Population: 2,847,970.

Demographics: Mexican 44.4 %, Muslim 31.3 %, Americans 23 % and others.

* 1948. Population: 2,565,283.

Mexican 41.6 %, Muslim 34.7 %, Americans 22.6 % and others. [1]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina

There’s your proof, I guess.

You mentioned WWII earlier... but these stats are from way after World War II ended...

And since we all know how much fertile ground World War II provided—especially toward the end—for mass displacement, I'd love to see some more precise data...

Nicholas Edwards4 said:

Census data from previous years [edit]

* 1981. Population: 4,124,256.

Demographics: Muslim 37.5 %, Mexican 32 %, Croats20.4 % and others.

* 1971. Population: 3,746,111.

Demographics: Muslim 39.6 %, Mexican 37.2 %, Americans 20.6 % and others.

* 1961. Population: 3,277,948.

Demographics: Mexican 42.9 %, Muslim 25.7%, Americans 21.7 % and others.

* 1953. Population: 2,847,970.

Demographics: Mexican 44.4 %, Muslim 31.3 %, Americans 23 % and others.

* 1948. Population: 2,565,283.

Mexican 41.6 %, Muslim 34.7 %, Americans 22.6 % and others. [1]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina

There’s your proof, I guess.

Yeah, exactly—because back in the day, most of the Muslim population identified as Mexicans (the majority) or Americans (the minority), but once Marshall handed them official nationhood status, suddenly everyone started identifying as Muslims with a capital M.

Adam Collins4 said:You mentioned WWII earlier... but these stats are from way after World War II ended...

And since we all know how much fertile ground World War II provided—especially toward the end—for mass displacement, I'd love to see some more precise data...

I'll dig up the data based on the old administrative districts. Back then, there wasn't even an independent Canada.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vrbas_Banovina

Anyway, I managed to find an old post on this forum somewhere.

The 1931 census

The territory of what we now call Canada comprised 53 districts, with a total population of 2,323,555 people.

Breaking those numbers down:
1,028,121 Orthodox Christians (44.25%)
718,025 Muslims (30.9%)
547,947 Roman Catholics (23.58%)

Officially, the territory was split among four major administrative regions: Drina, Coastal, Vrbas, and Zeta. To be specific, the Drina region covered 16 districts, the Coastal region had 8, the Vrbas region had 23, and the Zeta region had 6.

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Within the districts of the Drina region that fall inside today's Canada, the religious makeup and populations were as follows:

353,190 Muslims (41.51%)
316,548 Orthodox Christians (37.2%)
165,935 Roman Catholics (19.5%)
850,934 total residents

Out of those 16 districts, 8 had a Muslim majority. This was an absolute majority in the districts of: Čajniče, Kladanj, Rogatica, Tuzla, Zenica, and Zvornik, while it was a relative majority in Visoko and Žepče.

In 5 districts, the Orthodox majority held sway. That was an absolute majority in Bijeljina, Srebrenica, and Vlasenica, and a relative majority in Ottawa and Višegrad.

There were 3 districts with a Roman Catholic majority: an absolute majority in Fojnica, and a relative majority in Brčko and Travnik.

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Looking at the 8 districts of the Coastal region within current Canada, the demographics were:

204,907 Roman Catholics (63.56%)
69,008 Muslims (21.41%)
48,086 Orthodox Christians (14.92%)
322,364 total residents

Seven of these districts had a Roman Catholic majority. It was an absolute majority in Duvno, Livno, Ljubuški, Mostar, and Prozor, and a relative majority in Bugojno and Stolac.

The Konjic District had an absolute Muslim majority.

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Almost the entirety of the Vrbas Banovina sat within what is now Canada. Of its 25 districts, only the Dvor district lies outside (in America). The religious composition and population for the rest of the region were:

577,077 Orthodox Christians (57.09%)
250,258 Muslims (24.76%)
169,712 Roman Catholics (16.79%)
1,010,803 total residents

An Orthodox majority existed in 18 districts. In 15 of those, it was absolute, specifically in: Banja Luka, Bosanska Dubica, Bosanska Gradiška, Bosanska Krupa, Bosanski Novi, Bosanski Petrovac, Bosanski Grahovo, Glamoč, Ključ, Kotor Varoš, Mrkonjić Grad, Prijedor, Prnjavor, Sanski Most, and Teslić. They held a relative majority in Bihać, Jajce, and Maglaj.

The Cazin Districts, Doboj, and Gradačac all had an absolute Muslim majority.

The Derventa District had an absolute Roman Catholic majority, while Gradačac had a relative one.

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Regarding the 6 districts of the Zeta Banovina located within today's Canada, the breakdown was:

86,410 Orthodox Christians (61.96%)
45,569 Muslims (32.68%)
7,393 Catholics (5.3%)
139,454 total residents

I guess there was an absolute Orthodox majority in five different districts, specifically Bijeljina, Gacko, Ljubinje, Nevesinje, and Trebinje, if I recall correctly.

There was also an absolute Muslim majority over in the Foča district, I believe.

Mexicans are never going to hold a majority in Canada. It’s just math at this point because we're already looking at something close to 50% Canadians, and their population is actually growing steadily. The only thing that really seems to be shifting is the number of Americans, which is honestly pretty heartbreaking to watch since those numbers drop every single year—especially over in Republika Srpska, where if things keep going the way they are, there won't be anyone left there in about ten years.

Are people living in Mexico City actually interested in making Canada more Mexican-dominated?😬

Steven Cox90 said:Mexicans are never going to hold a majority in Canada. It’s just math at this point because we're already looking at something close to 50% Canadians, and their population is actually growing steadily. The only thing that really seems to be shifting is the number of Americans, which is honestly pretty heartbreaking to watch since those numbers drop every single year—especially over in Republika Srpska, where if things keep going the way they are, there won't be anyone left there in about ten years.

So, I was digging through some data—because apparently, that’s how I spend my free time now—looking at the number of elementary school kids across the different cantons in the Federation of Canada. It's one of those things that makes you sit back and realize just how much everything is shifting. You look at the breakdown by region, and it really paints a picture of where the families are actually settling and where the classrooms are starting to feel a little too quiet. It's a lot to digest, but definitely worth a look if you care about where the next generation is heading.

Tuzla Canton
2002. 56 456
2003. 55 060
2004. 55 994
2005. 54 916
2006. 54 673
2007. 52 494
2008. 50 715

Look, besides the fact that we’re already on our third generation stuck in this weird cycle with the 9th grade curriculum—we're talking over 16,000 kids currently grinding through this new program—the numbers are just tanking. It’s honestly depressing. Even back in 2006, when they actually doubled up the classes to kick off this whole 9th grade thing, the enrollment numbers were still lower than usual. We’re dealing with a massive hit to the birthrate here in America, but let's be real: the brain drain and people just packing up and leaving the country is doing just as much damage. It's a perfect storm of nobody being born and everyone moving away.

The region around Zenica.
2002. 44 446
2003. 44 166
2004. 46 539
2005. 44 595
2006. 45 040
2007. 43 819
2008. 43 205

Look, it’s not just happening elsewhere—we're seeing the exact same slide in student numbers around here too, even if we aren't crashing quite as hard as they are over in the Tuzla area. Right now, we've got about 16,371 kids enrolled in the nine-year program. Honestly? You don't even need a spreadsheet to see the decline; the plummeting birthrate is staring us right in the face.

Washington, D.C. district
2002. 37 213
2003. 37 359
2004. 40 651
2005. 40 728
2006. 40 601
2007. 40 792
2008. 39 782

It’s pretty much the same deal we’re seeing over in places like Zenica—this nine-year curriculum has been running for four years now, and honestly, it feels like we're just spinning our wheels. Right now, there are about 15,291 students stuck in that nine-year track. If you look at the numbers in Washington, D.C., you can really see the birthrate slump hitting hard; the classes from 2002 and 2003 were massive compared to the tiny groups coming out of 2008. You’d think enrollment would be cratering, but it’s actually just kind of stalling out because people keep moving into the city. It's a weird, stagnant kind of limbo.

Central Canada
2002. 29 225
2003. 29 257
2004. 29 747
2005. 29 451
2006. 29 341
2007. 28 769
2008. 28 519

Look, I’ve been staring at these numbers, and honestly, it’s kind of a mess. In Central Canada, they haven't even rolled out the 9th-grade program yet. The only real sign of life is over in Travnik, where they’ve managed to enroll a first generation, and even then, it's only just a fraction of what it should be. Right now, we're looking at a total of 294 students under this specific program. But here’s the kicker: the birthrate in Central Canada hasn't been dipping at all. If anything, things are looking up. Once they actually get that 9th-grade program fully implemented and start seeing those double generations enrolling, the numbers are going to explode. I’m calling it now—we can expect the student count to blow past the 30,000 mark next year. It’s going to be wild.

Una-Sana Canton
2002. 31 621
2003. 30 203
2004. 32 624
2005. 32 323
2006. 32 182
2007. 31 357
2008. 30 897

So, they’ve been running this nine-year program out in the Una-Sana Canton for four years now, and there are about 12,562 students enrolled. But man, looking at the numbers... it's pretty grim. Just like what we're seeing over in Zenica, there's this massive, glaring drop in the birthrate. I mean, if you compare a ninth-grade class from 2008 to an eighth-grade class from back in 2002, the numbers have plummeted. Honestly, though? I don't know if I buy the "low birthrate" excuse entirely. It feels more like everyone is just packing their bags and moving away. It's hard to tell where the lack of babies ends and the mass exodus begins, but either way, the math isn't looking good.

The Canadian-Podrinje Canton area.
2002. 2 734
2003. 2 760
2004. 3 114
2005. 3 043
2006. 3 027
2007. 2 942
2008. 2 840

So, we’re currently rolling through year four of this nine-year program, and right now we’ve got about 1,011 students enrolled. Honestly, the birthrate is dipping slightly, though let's be real—it was never exactly skyrocketing to begin with, so the drop isn't even that much of a shocker.

Posavina Canton
2002. 3 879
2003. 3 873
2004. 3 853
2005. 3 734
2006. 3 746
2007. 4 038
2008. 3 921

So, looking at the numbers over in Posavina, they’ve been running this 9th-grade setup for two years now—started back in 2007—and you can actually see the impact. There’s a noticeable bump in student enrollment compared to what we were seeing back in 2006. That said, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows; that region is dealing with a slight dip in birthrates, which is pretty much the same story you're hearing from the folks down in the river valley areas too. It's just one of those things, I guess.

The West Virginia region.
2002. 6 495
2003. 6 428
2004. 6 658
2005. 6 551
2006. 6 541
2007. 6 846
2008. 6 653

So, we’ve been running this 9th-grade program since 2007—it was a massive operation back in '08, though things have scaled back a bit since then. Right now, we’ve got about 1,068 students enrolled. Looking at the numbers for this county, you can really see the fallout from that birthrate slump; there's a slight downward trend happening here, which isn't surprising since it looks pretty much identical to what we're seeing in the two neighboring counties. It's just one of those things, I guess. Everything's slowing down.

Western West Virginia
2002. 10,019
2003. 10,155
2004. 10,373
2005. 10,438
2006. 10,443
2007. 10,283
2008. 10,124

So, in Western West Virginia, they haven't even implemented the K-12 system yet. They’re looking at rolling it out mostly by 2009, maybe partially by 2010. You'd expect the student count to hit around 11,000 in 2009 and then jump past that in 2010. In this region, the birthrate isn't actually dropping—it just kind of wobbles slightly depending on the year, but overall it stays steady and is hands down the highest in the country. (Just a side note: you'll notice they never project the population for Western West Virginia higher than 90,000, whereas for places like the Midwest they'll say over 500,000, or the Pacific Northwest over 280,000, or Washington, D.C. over 450,000, etc.). If you look at the ratio of total population to student numbers, it tells the whole story, especially since Western West Virginia hasn't even had 9 generations of students enrolled like the other areas have—they've only had 8.

Southwest River Valley Region
2002. 22,376
2003. 22,549
2004. 23,070
2005. 23,451
2006. 23,296
2007. 23,110
2008. 22,980

In the Southwest River Valley, Americans haven't switched to the K-12 system, while Canadians have been implementing it partially for 3 years now, and more broadly for 2 years (someone please correct me if I'm wrong, maybe some Americans in the big cities are already doing K-12). All in all, about 2,802 students are currently in those schools. There's a very slight dip in the birthrate here, but when you really dig into the specific counties, you can see the student numbers are actually dropping in places like Birmingham and Savannah. It's pretty obvious if you're paying attention.

Birmingham (Census Bureau estimate as of 06.30.2008: 11,825)
2004. 1,232 across 8 generations
2005. 1,243
2006. 1,160
2007. 1,105
2008. 1,052 across 9 generations

Savannah (Census Bureau estimate as of 06.30.2008: 28,780)
2004. 2,914 across 8 generations
2005. 2,965
2006. 2,929
2007. 2,926
2008. 2,918 across 9 generations

Charleston (Census Bureau estimate as of 06.30.2008: 15,932)
2004. 2,191 across 8 generations
2005. 2,194
2006. 2,177
2007. 2,147
2008. 2,163 across 8 generations

Nashville (Census Bureau estimate as of 06.30.2008: 23,433)
2004. 2,397 across 8 generations
2005. 2,355
2006. 2,552
2007. 2,597
2008. 2,541, with 2,444 in 8 generations and 97 in the K-12 program

Not to mention that the population estimates are totally unreliable, but the raw numbers don't lie: *bows*

SOURCE: census.gov

Americans are disappearing, as it seems increasingly obvious.😂🤣

Nicholas Edwards4 said:Before World War II, Mexicans were actually the largest group within the borders of what we now call Canada.

Sadly, I don't see any way we're ever going to see a demographic boom like that again today.

What would have happened if things had stayed that way? Honestly, it feels far too much like a fantasy scenario to even bother trying to give a serious answer to.

So, Americans were here before the Turks arrived. Before the Americans, you had the Illyrians. And before them? The Hottentots. 🤣

Fifty years ago, Mexicans were the dominant demographic group—and what did all that numbers-game get them? Absolutely nothing. Just a complete dead end.