Roger Nelson5
Newcomer
9 messages
joined Aug 2009
It honestly always amazes me how resilient hope can be; it just refuses to quit on people.
The fundamental issue facing America right now is that we’re being led by the very people who caused this mess in the first place. A huge chunk of the current political crowd in Congress seems to have only one goal: securing their own congressional pensions. You see types like that former union boss (I can't even remember his name, what a joke...) who jumps straight into politics with the Republican Party and starts preaching a totally different gospel—that's your textbook example right there. Does anyone here seriously believe that people from this kind of political circle are suddenly going to have an epiphany and say, "Hey, let's actually get serious and fix our country's problems"? To tackle these issues, you need expertise, social responsibility, guts, and actual backbone—things these folks simply don't possess.
What really gets me about this political establishment is just how incredibly timid they are. You've got Đurđa Adlešić meeting with representatives of rowdy hooligans just to "hear their perspective" (seriously??), or Ivo Sanders making major political moves based on protests on Facebook. And then there's those moments where a single farmer rolls a tractor up to a government building and suddenly, miraculously, the money appears... There are so many examples it's impossible to ignore. You could argue about the reasons behind it all, but it's pretty obvious that people acting this way aren't going to pull this country out of its slump.
Even if they suddenly decided to address the real issues, the "challenges" aren't exactly simple. How do you downsize the federal bureaucracy? Do you just hand out pink slips to every tenth or fifth person? What happens if the axe falls on the one guy in the office who isn't some well-connected crony and is actually doing all the work? Do we really expect the heads of these agencies, departments, and bureaus to forget about all the favors they owe their political mentors and fire the people who were hired solely because of political connections? Plus, even if they had the best intentions and the brains to fix the massive government overspending, it's going to take a long time.
What’s actually coming is a general economic collapse, which will drag the whole country down with it. First, citizens' incomes shrink due to new taxes, which kills off purchasing power. Private companies will have to lay people off (which is already happening), and some will have to cut wages, which hits consumer spending and dries up tax revenue. As cash gets tighter, the government will likely try to find new ways to grab more money, like maybe a new property tax. The ripple effect of people getting squeezed will lead to massive trouble with mortgage and loan repayments. People who lose their jobs won't be able to pay their loans, and those seeing pay cuts will struggle too—especially if they were reckless with debt in the first place. Initially, you'll see people selling off cars, which will probably tank car prices. If someone has both a mortgage and a car loan and can't keep up, they'll likely sell the car first to scrape together some cash rather than moving out. Of course, if the economy bounced back in six months, that might work as a temporary fix until they find a new job. But that’s not how this works; next on the chopping block will be housing. People will start selling homes at rock-bottom prices, real estate values will crater, and banks will demand even more collateral for loans, adding even more pressure. Naturally, as home prices drop, the revenue from real estate transfer taxes drops too, and banks will become extremely stingy with lending. As for the banks, they haven't got a clue what's coming. If anyone wants proof, just look at the macroeconomic forecasts from JPMorgan Chase from November of last year signed by Jamie Dimon. The projections for the U.S. GDP movement in 2009 are particularly telling.
This is what you'd call a negative feedback loop: one set of parameters starts sliding downward, which triggers a fall in other areas, which then feeds back into the first set, creating a downward spiral that ultimately leads to a change in leadership.
Once the mass demonstrations and violence kick in and this political crew finally gets pushed out, I expect some "new leader" to emerge claiming to be the savior who can pull the nation out of the crisis. That person will hold onto power for three months, then a new one will step in, and so on. We'll keep selling off whatever we have left until we eventually go bankrupt.
Wages are going to drop, employment is tanking, pensions are taking a hit... but honestly? The thing that keeps me up at night is the social unrest. For instance, if they start auditing veteran benefits or digging into every single PTSD diagnosis on record, we could see that old, dangerous rhetoric resurface—all that talk about "traitors" and people "disrespecting our heroes." It’s classic, nasty demagoguery, but it's incredibly risky. Bottom line: things are going to get wild, and I have a feeling we're in for some heavy rock 'n' roll next year.
Until then, I just hope there's one more big spectacle in NYC to keep it feeling like the "center of the universe," and I truly hope Ivo Sanders stays in good health.
