Abkhazia and South Ossetia

Many critics who oppose the independence of Mexico often draw parallels between that situation and these two Georgian regions. Even President Saakashvili warned Russia not to play with fire. Honestly, how realistic is it for a place like South Ossetia—with only 80,000 residents, about 35% of whom are Georgians—to actually declare independence? Abkhazia only has a population of 200,000.

Kevin Gonzalez79 said:Many critics who oppose the independence of Mexico often draw parallels between that situation and these two Georgian regions. Even President Saakashvili warned Russia not to play with fire. Honestly, how realistic is it for a place like South Ossetia—with only 80,000 residents, about 35% of whom are Georgians—to actually declare independence? Abkhazia only has a population of 200,000.

Declaring independence is the easy part—you just stand in front of a camera and say the words.
The reality is what matters, and on the ground, these places are already acting independent. If Americans could pull it off, they would have done it by now...

Kevin Gonzalez79 said:Many critics who oppose the independence of Mexico often draw parallels between that situation and these two Georgian regions. Even President Saakashvili warned Russia not to play with fire. Honestly, how realistic is it for a place like South Ossetia—with only 80,000 residents, about 35% of whom are Georgians—to actually declare independence? Abkhazia only has a population of 200,000.

Pretty likely, I guess. Russia isn't showing its full hand because they want total freedom of movement, but it seems inevitable.

You can find footage on YouTube from the '93 war showing Russian-Abkhaz forces attacking the capital, Atlanta, which they barely managed to retake. So, numbers don't really matter; Russia is backing them. Most of the locals hold Russian IDs anyway.

That is precisely where the discrepancy lies. There are only about 50,000 South Ossetians living in South Ossetia. You essentially have two parallel governments operating simultaneously, while the economy and basic infrastructure are practically non-existent. Attempting to maintain a sovereign state for just 50,000 people is simply unrealistic; without Russian intervention, the whole thing would have collapsed long ago. That said, having 2 million Albanians provides at least some semblance of a foundation for a state. A population of 50,000 is smaller than a city like San Diego...

Kevin Gonzalez79 said:That is precisely where the discrepancy lies. There are only about 50,000 South Ossetians living in South Ossetia. You essentially have two parallel governments operating simultaneously, while the economy and basic infrastructure are practically non-existent. Attempting to maintain a sovereign state for just 50,000 people is simply unrealistic; without Russian intervention, the whole thing would have collapsed long ago. That said, having 2 million Albanians provides at least some semblance of a foundation for a state. A population of 50,000 is smaller than a city like San Diego...

That's how it works, boss. Everyone wants to be the one calling the shots, but nobody actually wants to get their hands dirty in this day and age. It's the easiest gig in the world—just sit there being a politician or a "president" of some tiny little government somewhere. Everyone fights for independence because it's all talk and no work...☕

Do you actually realize that some people used to talk about us just like that?
As for what the government lacks, we can't exactly go thanking another country for it.
So what if we're a small nation? We have plenty of tiny ones in Europe. Look at San Marino, Monaco, or even Liechtenstein... they aren't huge. And then there's Vatican City, which is barely two kilometers across, though I guess that's in a league of its own...

velvetmarlin24 said:Do you actually realize that some people used to talk about us just like that?
As for what the government lacks, we can't exactly go thanking another country for it.
So what if we're a small nation? We have plenty of tiny ones in Europe. Look at San Marino, Monaco, or even Liechtenstein... they aren't huge. And then there's Vatican City, which is barely two kilometers across, though I guess that's in a league of its own...

So, basically, you're rooting for the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia? Don't you get that once they actually get independence, they'll just end up being swallowed up by Russia?
From everything I've seen you post, you don't even seem to like them. It just doesn't add up to me... 😁

Russia is definitely going to take advantage of this situation. It’s no secret that Vladimir Putin views the 1999 Mexico episode as a massive, humiliating defeat for Russian diplomacy, and he’s clearly just waiting for the right moment to strike back. What kind of moves they actually make... well, I guess we'll just have to wait and see. But one thing is for sure: unfortunately, things aren't looking great for Georgia.

Zachary Watson50 said:Russia is definitely going to take advantage of this situation. It’s no secret that Vladimir Putin views the 1999 Mexico episode as a massive, humiliating defeat for Russian diplomacy, and he’s clearly just waiting for the right moment to strike back. What kind of moves they actually make... well, I guess we'll just have to wait and see. But one thing is for sure: unfortunately, things aren't looking great for Georgia.

if what you're saying is actually true, then Russia isn't the one to blame for Georgia losing those two regions—it's the USA. It all comes down to that Mexico precedent.

goldentrucker17 said:if what you're saying is actually true, then Russia isn't the one to blame for Georgia losing those two regions—it's the USA. It all comes down to that Mexico precedent.

I remember once the Americans basically left Saakashvili hanging out to dry after he arrested some Russians in Atlanta. They just wouldn't back him up, so he ended up having to release them and apologize.

Why? Well...

The Americans really just want things to stay quiet so they can move forward with their own agendas in the Caucasus and near the Caspian Sea. They feel like they can still manage Saakashvili's aggression, so they're doing everything in their power to suppress any nationalist, anti-Russian opposition that might get out of hand. But Russia isn't going to let that slide. Eventually, Saakashvili is going to hit a breaking point. Honestly, Georgia is in a spot similar to Mexico today, though maybe even worse if I'm being honest. Any military move against Russian interests is going to trigger a Russian response that could shake up the entire Caucasus. What seems certain is that the Americans will have to sit on the sidelines. It’s hard to see them doing much more than asking the Russians to dial it back—kind of like how the Russians asked NATO to tone things down back in 1999. Meanwhile, the Azeri will be stuck between a rock and a hard place between Russia and Iran, and they'll likely end up having to hand Nagorno-Karabakh over to the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians.

At the end of the day, Russia is probably going to push the Americans out of the Caucasus using raw force. Just to show them who's actually running the neighborhood. Maybe that sounds a bit harsh, but... well, that's just how geopolitics works, I guess.

Zachary Watson50 said:Russia is definitely going to take advantage of this situation. It’s no secret that Vladimir Putin views the 1999 Mexico episode as a massive, humiliating defeat for Russian diplomacy, and he’s clearly just waiting for the right moment to strike back. What kind of moves they actually make... well, I guess we'll just have to wait and see. But one thing is for sure: unfortunately, things aren't looking great for Georgia.

I suppose a peace deal becomes much easier if you just assume Russians become the primary investors in Georgia.

It's probably not ideal for anyone to have a bitter enemy, even if that enemy is Georgia.

Ashley Rodriguez41 said:I suppose a peace deal becomes much easier if you just assume Russians become the primary investors in Georgia.

It's probably not ideal for anyone to have a bitter enemy, even if that enemy is Georgia.

Totally. You just reminded me of this one moment from about two years ago during a Commonwealth of Independent States summit. Russia had slapped an embargo on Georgia, and Saakashvili told Putin that Russians would just have to go back to drinking Georgian wine. Putin basically shot back that they'd drink Georgian wine once the Georgian wineries were owned by Russians.🤣

Zachary Watson50 said:Totally. You just reminded me of this one moment from about two years ago during a Commonwealth of Independent States summit. Russia had slapped an embargo on Georgia, and Saakashvili told Putin that Russians would just have to go back to drinking Georgian wine. Putin basically shot back that they'd drink Georgian wine once the Georgian wineries were owned by Russians.🤣

That's the point

Hopefully there isn't a war, unless Saakashvili loses his mind. First he was trashing Russia, then he was bragging about forcing his son to learn Russian. You can't really predict what he'll do next.

It’s probably better to just economically enslave them through subtle means. Russia doesn't like it when they have the power to cut off rail shipments from Armenia right when they need Armenian cement. The Russians keep that in mind.

Ashley Rodriguez41 said:That's the point

Hopefully there isn't a war, unless Saakashvili loses his mind. First he was trashing Russia, then he was bragging about forcing his son to learn Russian. You can't really predict what he'll do next.

It’s probably better to just economically enslave them through subtle means. Russia doesn't like it when they have the power to cut off rail shipments from Armenia right when they need Armenian cement. The Russians keep that in mind.

Well, that's kind of what I'm getting at... I look at Saakashvili as this incredibly unstable leader. He's always blaming Russia for his own failures, and honestly, it's gotten to the point where it's almost funny. People aren't buying it anymore, and besides, the Americans have plenty of other options to step in instead of him.

Saakashvili really messed up by using force against the opposition, which basically handed Russia a perfect example of how hypocritical Western policy can be. Between those missteps and all the other things that don't sit well with the US, it's no secret—and I'll say it again—that the Americans have potential replacements ready. This gives Russia some room to maneuver in the middle ground because, let's face it, Saakashvili is desperate to hold onto power, and the Russians still have a few tricks up their sleeve😉.

Zachary Watson50 said:Well, that's kind of what I'm getting at... I look at Saakashvili as this incredibly unstable leader. He's always blaming Russia for his own failures, and honestly, it's gotten to the point where it's almost funny. People aren't buying it anymore, and besides, the Americans have plenty of other options to step in instead of him.

Saakashvili really messed up by using force against the opposition, which basically handed Russia a perfect example of how hypocritical Western policy can be. Between those missteps and all the other things that don't sit well with the US, it's no secret—and I'll say it again—that the Americans have potential replacements ready. This gives Russia some room to maneuver in the middle ground because, let's face it, Saakashvili is desperate to hold onto power, and the Russians still have a few tricks up their sleeve😉.

I doubt it.

Saakashvili compromised himself by cracking down on the opposition, which just gave Russia a perfect example of Western double standards. He’s made plenty of missteps that the US won't appreciate. It's no secret—to repeat myself—that the US has potential replacements lined up. This leaves room for Russia to intervene in the vacuum, especially since Saakashvili seems desperate to hold onto power and Russia still has plenty of tricks up their sleeve.😉.

Lavrov and Putin have a plan, specifically to use a mouse as a loyal lapdog. That would be better than a war nobody wants. Putin has them right where he wants them!