Balance of Trade

Starting this thread—hopefully there isn't anything like it already—so we can dump everything we know about the Balance of Trade in America. I just stumbled upon some data showing that fruit imports versus exports is one of the absolute worst spots in the American Balance, where the ratio is basically 1:10. That means—get this—for every single kg of fruit we export, America is importing 10 kg. ☕ Apparently, our biggest imports are bananas and oranges. Check out this article I found:

I’m opening this up because I want the other, much smarter members of this forum to drop stats and data on the American Balance. I actually think this could be useful for anyone trying to strike out as an entrepreneur... why? Because you make the most money where the country is weakest. In this specific case, if someone's looking to get into agriculture, they should probably start planting orange groves immediately (assuming we can't do bananas since the climate won't allow it). ☕

Can anyone dig up some numbers on other "sectors"?

A negative Balance of Trade basically means we're insolvent, yet they keep handing out loans anyway. The Balance of Trade really ought to be balanced to stop money from bleeding out of the state. Etc. People have already chewed this topic up in other posts.

The most important thing would be if we could just declare foreign debts invalid because of that negative Balance of Trade and refuse to pay them back. But I suppose we can't do that.

A negative Balance of Trade means we're living on borrowed time and credit. It's a miracle that no Government has ever seen this as an issue.

Look, what I’m really trying to do here is pull some data together. If you're actually serious about entrepreneurship, you need to realize you should be looking at the weakest spots in our market—basically, find out what the Republic of America imports most and go all in on that. It’s about building a collective mindset regarding trade and knowing what we actually ought to be buying. I know, I know, don't expect the Government to launch a massive awareness campaign on this forum, but hey, why not dream?🙂 For instance, if people just ate more local fruit instead of constantly reaching for bananas and oranges,☕ then farmers could actually pivot their production to meet that demand. It would be pretty eye-opening to dig into the weakest sectors of the American Economy... take the auto industry, for example. Since we don't have our own domestic car manufacturing, importing is basically a total monopoly.🙂

hollowpilot13 said:Starting this thread—hopefully there isn't anything like it already—so we can dump everything we know about the Balance of Trade in America. I just stumbled upon some data showing that fruit imports versus exports is one of the absolute worst spots in the American Balance, where the ratio is basically 1:10. That means—get this—for every single kg of fruit we export, America is importing 10 kg. ☕ Apparently, our biggest imports are bananas and oranges. Check out this article I found:

I’m opening this up because I want the other, much smarter members of this forum to drop stats and data on the American Balance. I actually think this could be useful for anyone trying to strike out as an entrepreneur... why? Because you make the most money where the country is weakest. In this specific case, if someone's looking to get into agriculture, they should probably start planting orange groves immediately (assuming we can't do bananas since the climate won't allow it). ☕

Can anyone dig up some numbers on other "sectors"?

To actually cover the import needs for fresh oranges and juice concentrates, the country would need to plant about 1,500 hectares of orchards. That would yield roughly 50,000 to 75,000 tons of fruit—enough to provide 25,000 tons for consumer use and 50,000 tons for industrial processing. There’s also the potential for bitter orange plantations to produce oils and aromas, which basically grow wild on the islands anyway. In plain terms, we're talking an investment of maybe 7-8 million euros in orchards and another 2-3 million in processing plants. But before any of that happens, workers from the state agency for karst irrigation should really set up some test plots and experiment with crossbreeding varieties. And honestly, we need serious scientific papers on irrigation techniques. Oranges grown in the soil of California are easily the most delicious, tartest oranges on the planet—bursting with juice, never dry. Plus, there’s zero chance those trees will drown from excessive groundwater in California.

I totally forgot to mention that Brazil's premium oranges—the ones you guys grab at your local Walmart—are selling for

$1.50 to $7 per 40.8 kg unit

Right now, the projected price for the upcoming harvest is sitting at about $5 per 40.8 kg. That’s an all-time high we've never seen before; honestly, some wholesalers are even shelling out as much as $7.50 per 40.8 kg

At roughly 40 cents a pound, what are you guys actually paying at the store?
We simply can't produce oranges at those margins here unless we slash the minimum monthly wage down to somewhere around $200-$100 a month. And there is absolutely no way producers can cover their water bills at current rates; the cost of water would need to drop by something like 99.9999999999% just to make the math work.

hollowpilot13 said:Starting this thread—hopefully there isn't anything like it already—so we can dump everything we know about the Balance of Trade in America. I just stumbled upon some data showing that fruit imports versus exports is one of the absolute worst spots in the American Balance, where the ratio is basically 1:10. That means—get this—for every single kg of fruit we export, America is importing 10 kg. ☕ Apparently, our biggest imports are bananas and oranges. Check out this article I found:

I’m opening this up because I want the other, much smarter members of this forum to drop stats and data on the American Balance. I actually think this could be useful for anyone trying to strike out as an entrepreneur... why? Because you make the most money where the country is weakest. In this specific case, if someone's looking to get into agriculture, they should probably start planting orange groves immediately (assuming we can't do bananas since the climate won't allow it). ☕

Can anyone dig up some numbers on other "sectors"?

We're basically exporting cash through imports just so we have to take out more loans to bring money back in to buy more imported fruit!
It's just one giant circle!
Does anyone have the scissors to cut this loop?

wearytrucker22 said:I totally forgot to mention that Brazil's premium oranges—the ones you guys grab at your local Walmart—are selling for

$1.50 to $7 per 40.8 kg unit

Right now, the projected price for the upcoming harvest is sitting at about $5 per 40.8 kg. That’s an all-time high we've never seen before; honestly, some wholesalers are even shelling out as much as $7.50 per 40.8 kg

At roughly 40 cents a pound, what are you guys actually paying at the store?
We simply can't produce oranges at those margins here unless we slash the minimum monthly wage down to somewhere around $200-$100 a month. And there is absolutely no way producers can cover their water bills at current rates; the cost of water would need to drop by something like 99.9999999999% just to make the math work.

Huh, interesting. I actually ran into an orange grower once.😁 Look, I have no clue what oranges go for at local farmers' markets or grocery stores, but I highly doubt anyone is picking up 90 lbs of oranges for just $1.50. It’s gotta be way, way more expensive than that. You’ve got to factor in shipping and all those other overhead costs, like import duties if they apply. Besides, in Italy, most oranges come from Sicily... and they don't exactly struggle with water issues down there since it's much further south than us. Are you saying the water costs are really that massive?😕 I don't think growing oranges requires that much water.

Has anyone else noticed our Balance of Trade has actually swung into the black lately? Back in 2010, we were basically sitting at zero.

Robin Rodriguez5 said:Has anyone else noticed our Balance of Trade has actually swung into the black lately? Back in 2010, we were basically sitting at zero.

Unfortunately, I don't have much time to keep tabs on the American Economy. If you're actually in the loop, could you tell me what the biggest exports and imports are? A rough list would be killer... if you know the deal and aren't too busy. 😁

hollowpilot13 said:Starting this thread—hopefully there isn't anything like it already—so we can dump everything we know about the Balance of Trade in America. I just stumbled upon some data showing that fruit imports versus exports is one of the absolute worst spots in the American Balance, where the ratio is basically 1:10. That means—get this—for every single kg of fruit we export, America is importing 10 kg. ☕ Apparently, our biggest imports are bananas and oranges. Check out this article I found:

I’m opening this up because I want the other, much smarter members of this forum to drop stats and data on the American Balance. I actually think this could be useful for anyone trying to strike out as an entrepreneur... why? Because you make the most money where the country is weakest. In this specific case, if someone's looking to get into agriculture, they should probably start planting orange groves immediately (assuming we can't do bananas since the climate won't allow it). ☕

Can anyone dig up some numbers on other "sectors"?

I'm pretty sure the numbers you're looking for can be verified through the Bureau of Statistics, the Chamber of Commerce, or customs.gov.

Anyway, this is a great idea. Years ago, I heard this American entrepreneur say that "if you want to manufacture something, check customs to see what we're importing most. See if we can produce it cheaper than buying it from overseas—maybe by cutting out those massive shipping costs—and then just go build it."

hollowpilot13 said:Huh, interesting. I actually ran into an orange grower once.😁 Look, I have no clue what oranges go for at local farmers' markets or grocery stores, but I highly doubt anyone is picking up 90 lbs of oranges for just $1.50. It’s gotta be way, way more expensive than that. You’ve got to factor in shipping and all those other overhead costs, like import duties if they apply. Besides, in Italy, most oranges come from Sicily... and they don't exactly struggle with water issues down there since it's much further south than us. Are you saying the water costs are really that massive?😕 I don't think growing oranges requires that much water.

Having run a private business in Sicily from 2004 to 2008, I have a pretty good handle on how much water Sicily actually has.
In a radius of about 60 miles44 miles from Mount Etna, water is abundant and practically limitless. Farmers living below the slopes of Mount Etna use primitive irrigation channels to water their fields. It's simple enough: drill a 6-inch well about 60-70 meters deep, and every single one pumps out 200-300 liters of water per second. Rain on Mount Etna is frequent. The soil is incredibly permeable, and since the start of the year, we've seen about 500mm of rain and snow per square meter. Basically, the Mount Etna aquifer holds about 0.8 km³ of water annually. To put that in perspective, that could cover 800 km² with a meter of water depth.

It gets much drier around areas like Palermo or near Ragusa, but even there, the aquifer is massive.

The whole time I was working in Sicily, oranges were priced at around euro 10 kg.
Lately, the price has bumped up to 1.5 euro 10 kg. During my time there, millions of orange trees were left neglected; the fruit just sat on the branches because the cost of harvesting them outweighed the profit.

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Carlos Viacava, the CEO of Cutrale, noted that contracts currently being inked with orange growers in Brazil—which produces nearly half of the world's orange juice—include price hikes of 50 to 60 percent.
“Some of the producers we used to pay R$5 (US$2.70) per box are now seeing R$14 or R$15 per box,” he told the Wall Street Journal, though he mentioned the average increase was slightly lower.
Oranges are sold in 90lb (40.8kg) boxes.

hollowpilot13 said:Unfortunately, I don't have much time to keep tabs on the American Economy. If you're actually in the loop, could you tell me what the biggest exports and imports are? A rough list would be killer... if you know the deal and aren't too busy. 😁

Exports are dominated by services—specifically tourism—which also factor into the Balance of Trade.
When it comes to goods, shipbuilding accounts for about 15% of total exports, though that’s a whole other conversation since, looking at the bottom line, they often run a massive deficit. Beyond that, petroleum products, coke, petrochemicals, and a smaller slice of pharmaceuticals are the heavy hitters.

You can find some basic macroeconomic data right here:

More, at least from what I gather, California is packed with underground rivers, so water shouldn't really be the issue. The real headache is the actual terrain. They ought to start building terraces like they used to back in the day—that way, you could actually make use of even the rockiest patches. Banderas, thanks for the link.😉

hollowpilot13 said:More, at least from what I gather, California is packed with underground rivers, so water shouldn't really be the issue. The real headache is the actual terrain. They ought to start building terraces like they used to back in the day—that way, you could actually make use of even the rockiest patches. Banderas, thanks for the link.😉

Clearly, none of you guys have ever tried building dry stone walls. It’s slow, back-breaking work, and honestly, the ROI is pretty questionable at best. Plus, any kind of terracing just makes it impossible to get machinery in there, which obviously drives up the price of whatever you're growing.

Look, some things we just have to import. Bananas, citrus—that's just how it works. Sure, we *could* grow oranges and lemons here, but we aren't doing it at a price that won't break the bank. Ask yourself when was the last time you grabbed an orange for 13 cents instead of one for $2.25. Well, ours would've been 15. The only real thing we can do is teach people throughout California to plant these things in their own backyards to cut down on imports, but as far as large-scale production goes? We're way too small, too fragmented, and frankly, we don't have enough sun or water to compete.

But then there's the other question—do we even need to be eating this imported stuff anyway? It's obvious that over centuries, our bodies have adapted to certain types of food. Nowadays, we're basically shocking our systems with stuff we've never even tasted before: papaya, persimmons, avocados, feijoas, bananas, seaweed, Himalayan salt.... Whether that's actually dangerous or somehow good for us, only time will tell. One thing's for sure, it's definitely not "natural" for the body.

In a way, that was the whole point of this thread anyway—trying to build some kind of collective consciousness for the good of the state.😁 I mean, look, even in climates much colder than California, people grow lemons and oranges in their gardens. Usually, they're just ornamental, or at least that’s how we view them here in Italy, so everyone wants an orange tree sitting pretty in a terracotta pot in their backyard. I’m not saying your average American is out there eating crates of oranges, but personally? One little tree would be plenty for me and my family. I could even start acting like a mobster😁 and dropping off baskets of oranges to my buddies. If everyone did that, we wouldn't be buying them at the store, which means fewer imports overall. It’s the same deal with seasonal produce. In Italy, women are constantly complaining about how expensive fruit and veggies have gotten, but nobody actually checks what's in season. They end up buying stuff out of season, and since everyone does it, prices just skyrocket. But wait, regarding those oranges—are they being picked by massive industrial machines? I always assumed it was still done by hand, you know, like a farmer wandering through the grove picking the ripe ones off the branches. Whether there are terraces involved or not, I honestly think we should be focusing on organic oranges. We shouldn't be messing around with all those chemical products anyway.

hollowpilot13 said:In a way, that was the whole point of this thread anyway—trying to build some kind of collective consciousness for the good of the state.😁 I mean, look, even in climates much colder than California, people grow lemons and oranges in their gardens. Usually, they're just ornamental, or at least that’s how we view them here in Italy, so everyone wants an orange tree sitting pretty in a terracotta pot in their backyard. I’m not saying your average American is out there eating crates of oranges, but personally? One little tree would be plenty for me and my family. I could even start acting like a mobster😁 and dropping off baskets of oranges to my buddies. If everyone did that, we wouldn't be buying them at the store, which means fewer imports overall. It’s the same deal with seasonal produce. In Italy, women are constantly complaining about how expensive fruit and veggies have gotten, but nobody actually checks what's in season. They end up buying stuff out of season, and since everyone does it, prices just skyrocket. But wait, regarding those oranges—are they being picked by massive industrial machines? I always assumed it was still done by hand, you know, like a farmer wandering through the grove picking the ripe ones off the branches. Whether there are terraces involved or not, I honestly think we should be focusing on organic oranges. We shouldn't be messing around with all those chemical products anyway.

In Southern Italy, most of the orange harvesting is done by hand. Newer plantations probably use machinery, but in Sicily, it’s manual labor through and through.
The pricing situation looks like another total disaster. Table oranges are sitting at about 7 cents per kg.
http://archive.org/details/linktv_earth2012022913
Around the 2.2-minute mark, you can hear a farmer explaining exactly how bad things have gotten for him.

http://www.motherjones.com/tom-philp...ce-fanta-italy
Fresh news, though it's the same old story: Coca-Cola is basically squeezing the farmers dry. They're pinning the buyout price at 7 cents per kg and stretching payment terms out to 12 months. It’s just year after year of the same exploitation.

I really hope our local farming unions give the Italians a masterclass in how to organize effective road blockades.

As for everyone else here, we could easily produce oranges for about $0.67 kg, specifically table grade, or lemons for roughly 0.7-$0.33 kg

Otherwise, the situation for Taroco/Moro varieties is an absolute catastrophe. Buyout prices are stuck at 0.2 Euros, yet in the US, they sell 12 of them for 20-30 dollars, and a 0.7L bottle of juice goes for 6 bucks.

It isn't exactly specific, but I was reading that Mexicans supposedly exported about $2.2 billion in food products back in 2010, whereas we only managed to export $1.08 billion worth of agri-food products during the first ten months of that same year. (Apparently, fruit and nuts saw an export surge of about 78%).
The most significant issue seems to be the massive import of various food items—primarily fruits and vegetables, but also meat and meat products, eggs and cheese, live cattle, oilseed cakes, pet food, cigarettes, baby formula, coffee, cocoa products, bananas... and so on.
http://www.agroklub.com/poljoprivred...kurentna/4335/

I was wondering if anyone might happen to know where I could locate a version of the Balance of Trade that has been calculated in USD.

Lawrence Castillo2 said:I was wondering if anyone might happen to know where I could locate a version of the Balance of Trade that has been calculated in USD.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...k/geos/hr.html

Maybe take a look under the Economy section—the export and import data should be right at the bottom. I believe the CIA pulls those figures from our local Bureau of Statistics reports, so if you need anything more detailed, you might want to dig through their specific filings.

The current gap is about 8 billion USD, I think.

Hi everyone, I’m new to the forum; I just happened to stumble upon this thread while browsing... I'm currently studying International Trade (I'm based out of Mexico City) so please, feel free to reach out if you have any specific questions or uncertainties...

Regarding the actual data on trade, if you want the most granular details for individual countries or for global trade as a whole (all denominated in US dollars), your best bet is the World Trade Organization (WTO) website http://www.wto.org/. Beyond that, there are several other heavy hitters like the World Bank (WB) http://www.worldbank.org/, the United Nations http://www.un.org/ http://www.un.org/, and so on... If you're interested, I can certainly dig up more links for various organizations that publish similar datasets focusing on specific product categories.

If there is anything else at all that you're curious about, don't hesitate to ask!! 👍 Best regards