2018 Car Reveal and Pre-season Testing

I'm not sure if anyone else caught this, but Mercedes opted for the hard compound for Australia, despite having barely touched them during the sessions in Barcelona.
Mercedes seems to be gunning for an aggressive strategy, likely aiming for one fewer pit stop than Ferrari. It looks as though Ferrari is managing their tires more effectively, which aligns with those photos from Barcelona showing pieces of Mercedes's Mexican compounds flaking off.

It would certainly be interesting to see if Ferrari has managed to improve their qualifying pace relative to Mercedes, potentially allowing them to jump ahead at the start.

stormybadger8 said:Anyone who’s actually bothered to follow Formula 1 should have realized from day one that Mercedes and Red Bull have absolutely nothing to do with a race simulator.

I haven't seen anything like this before. Seriously. I’ve been following this sport for ages, but this is a whole new level of absurdity. It’s almost impressive how they manage to mess things up this consistently. Just pure chaos.
I posted this ages ago. It’s not like Sebastian Vettel should have been the one to say it...

What are these journalists even talking about? Just pure nonsense meant to farm clicks. It's got absolutely nothing to do with reality.

So, what exactly have they been doing over at Red Bull and Mercedes? Are they actually faster than Ferrari or not? Who knows. And let's be real—that "famous" race simulator of theirs has absolutely nothing to do with a real race sim. You can see that from a mile away. ☕

Of course it doesn't line up. The data makes it clear: in this supposed race simulation, Ferrari switched to the Medium tire at lap 14, whereas Mercedes stayed on their initial set until around lap 24. Between laps 14 and 24, Mercedes is pulling lap times that are 0.5 to 1 second faster per lap, despite running tires that are 14 laps older than Ferrari's.

Even a blind man could see something is wrong there.

mellowtiger83 said:Who exactly was supposed to speak up? You, perhaps?
Sebastian Vettel is a four-time world champion who has been in Formula 1 since 2007. Do you honestly think he's an idiot?

I reckon we should just hang tight for another 10 days 😉

Regarding Formula 1 as a whole—Laurent Abiteboul is calling for some serious changes.

"Things just can't keep going like this. Especially when we already know who the champion is before the season even kicks off."

Lewis Hamilton thinks Red Bull is the fastest kid on the block right now, but...

"I think Red Bull is the quickest right now. I've heard they're bringing some kind of upgrade—maybe two to four tenths or something like that," the Briton said while in Turin, Italy, at an event hosted by their main fuel partner, Petronas.

mellowtiger83 said:I'm not sure if anyone else caught this, but Mercedes opted for the hard compound for Australia, despite having barely touched them during the sessions in Barcelona.
Mercedes seems to be gunning for an aggressive strategy, likely aiming for one fewer pit stop than Ferrari. It looks as though Ferrari is managing their tires more effectively, which aligns with those photos from Barcelona showing pieces of Mercedes's Mexican compounds flaking off.

It would certainly be interesting to see if Ferrari has managed to improve their qualifying pace relative to Mercedes, potentially allowing them to jump ahead at the start.

Spare me the tire philosophy...
The specific tire choice doesn't mean jack squat as long as the team has two sets of mediums and two sets of hards available so they can run race sims during FP. ☕

Every single team—and I mean every single one—is going to have the exact same number of sets for qualifying and the race.
The only difference is what they use during FP, which is about as important as yesterday's weather.

Once they see how the compounds behave in FP1, they'll split the duties between drivers. One will run a race sim on one type, the other on another, and that's it.
In the end, everyone follows the same routine: head into qualifying with four sets of the softest possible tires and make sure they have at least two fresh sets of the best stuff left for the race. ☕
And wouldn't you know it, everyone ends up with basically the same race strategy and the same tires. 🙂
One stint on the qualifying tire, then maybe one or two fresh sets depending on the track.
It's the same old story every single race weekend, yet the journalists still feel the need to manufacture drama and act like they're geniuses for analyzing tire choices before the lights go out. 🙄

mellowtiger83 said:Of course it doesn't line up. The data makes it clear: in this supposed race simulation, Ferrari switched to the Medium tire at lap 14, whereas Mercedes stayed on their initial set until around lap 24. Between laps 14 and 24, Mercedes is pulling lap times that are 0.5 to 1 second faster per lap, despite running tires that are 14 laps older than Ferrari's.

Even a blind man could see something is wrong there.

A blind man can also see that Mercedes and Red Bull have no business running a race sim where the first stint is on Mediums.🙂
That’s literally like trying to run a race sim with only two cylinders and leaving the other four sitting in the garage.🤣
What kind of kid would actually run a race sim starting on Mediums when they know perfectly well there's zero theory suggesting anyone would actually pull the first stint in Barcelona on Mediums...

Most likely, Mercedes and Red Bull ran their simulations by doubling up on either the second or third stint on Mediums, while testing that first stint on softs at some completely different time or day—if they even bothered at all. They probably just couldn't be bothered to stay consistent.

You shouldn't take everything Lewis Hamilton and the rest of the crew say at face value. I remember last year how he was claiming before Australia that Ferrari looked pretty solid, maybe even better than them—and it turned out he was right. Now he's saying the same thing about Red Bull, which might also be spot on. But regarding Ferrari, last year you could really feel after testing and heading into Australia that they had done an amazing job, whereas this year, based on what people are saying, I'm just not feeling it. I'm honestly worried they might end up being the third-best team in Melbourne...

mellowtiger83 said:I'm not sure if anyone else caught this, but Mercedes opted for the hard compound for Australia, despite having barely touched them during the sessions in Barcelona.
Mercedes seems to be gunning for an aggressive strategy, likely aiming for one fewer pit stop than Ferrari. It looks as though Ferrari is managing their tires more effectively, which aligns with those photos from Barcelona showing pieces of Mercedes's Mexican compounds flaking off.

It would certainly be interesting to see if Ferrari has managed to improve their qualifying pace relative to Mercedes, potentially allowing them to jump ahead at the start.

What does better tire management have to do with qualifying?
Managing tires better could be a huge—maybe even crucial—advantage during the race (assuming this theory actually holds water for any of these teams).
In qualifying, you're basically just running one lap on old rubber anyway. 🤔

James Harris34 said:You shouldn't take everything Lewis Hamilton and the rest of the crew say at face value. I remember last year how he was claiming before Australia that Ferrari looked pretty solid, maybe even better than them—and it turned out he was right. Now he's saying the same thing about Red Bull, which might also be spot on. But regarding Ferrari, last year you could really feel after testing and heading into Australia that they had done an amazing job, whereas this year, based on what people are saying, I'm just not feeling it. I'm honestly worried they might end up being the third-best team in Melbourne...

It strikes me as strange how people sometimes claim to weigh all the facts, yet other times they just pick and choose whatever fits their narrative.

James Harris34 said:You shouldn't take everything Lewis Hamilton and the rest of the crew say at face value. I remember last year how he was claiming before Australia that Ferrari looked pretty solid, maybe even better than them—and it turned out he was right. Now he's saying the same thing about Red Bull, which might also be spot on. But regarding Ferrari, last year you could really feel after testing and heading into Australia that they had done an amazing job, whereas this year, based on what people are saying, I'm just not feeling it. I'm honestly worried they might end up being the third-best team in Melbourne...

The reality is probably that Mercedes has taken another massive leap forward. Honestly, this season feels like a repeat of 2016...
Because Red Bull could very well be just as fast as Ferrari right from the jump, if not noticeably faster by mid-season...
Still, it's a stretch to think anyone will pose a real threat to Mercedes, except maybe for two or three races. Of course, Toto Wolff will spend the whole year whining about how everyone is out to get him, and occasionally Lewis Hamilton might shed a tear too...

It wouldn't make any sense to me if Ferrari had made some massive, glaring blunder with this car. From what I could see, everything seemed planned out well in advance, and honestly, it felt like they actually knew exactly what they were doing...

If Mercedes and Ferrari were running at the same level, especially considering how they’d be trading points, it wouldn't even be an issue for Red Bull to swap in a 4th or maybe even a 5th engine during the season.
I don't see taking extra engines at tracks like Monza or Spa being a huge deal. The real issue isn't the penalties; it's making sure Red Bull and Renault don't suffer those sudden, random mechanical failures that knock them right out of title contention. When it comes down to pure reliability, Mercedes and Ferrari are definitely a step ahead of Renault.

Why do you think Ferrari made such a massive blunder? 🤷

From day one, Mercedes has been miles ahead when it comes to the Power Unit... plus they’re elite with aerodynamics and chassis, their organization is top-tier, and their driver lineup is solid—especially when you look at Lewis Hamilton...

Honestly, it would be a total miracle if Ferrari suddenly didn't just catch up to Mercedes, but actually overtook them. Realistically, the only actual edge they had last year was when the FIA banned the Mercedes suspension, which completely trashed their car concept....
Everything else is just "sorry, tough luck." They didn't have a more powerful Power Unit, nor was it any more reliable. It's questionable whether the car was even better to begin with, or if it just looked that way because the suspension trick sent Mercedes crashing backward while Ferrari ended up with some weird hybrid design that wasn't even meant to work with that kind of setup...

Red Bull, on the other hand, almost certainly has the best aero and chassis out of the top three teams. There's a much higher chance that Renault catches up or at least gets close to Ferrari, which automatically puts Red Bull ahead of Ferrari—maybe even right up there with Mercedes...

Even back when Red Bull was absolutely dominating, Renault didn't exactly have the strongest or best engine, but they were close enough that the Red Bull chassis and aero could carry the whole team past everyone else...

I don't think Ferrari fundamentally screwed everything up. It's more that Mercedes is so far ahead on the Power Unit side (specifically regarding reliability) that they can easily afford to focus on performance. Meanwhile, everyone else is sweating, wondering if their three Power Units will even survive the entire season. Even now, before the season kicks off, manufacturers are already planning how their engines will die and how they'll intentionally take penalties by using four Power Units (Renault and Honda are already hinting at it, and who knows, maybe Ferrari is planning the same thing too)...
Does anyone on this planet actually expect Mercedes to go out of their way to take a penalty and limp through the season on four or five engines? 🙂

Ferrari basically has unlimited resources, a solid engine, and a four-time champ under their belt, but if Mercedes-Benz widens the gap and Red Bull catches up, they're absolutely screwed.

By their own standards, they aren't even 😬
For them, this is totally business as usual. Honestly, I’d have been more surprised if they actually closed the gap to Mercedes instead of just letting Red Bull pull away...

At the end of the day, by the close of last season, they were already at a point where Red Bull was closer to them than Mercedes was...
Last season was basically an anomaly. It's obvious Mercedes got absolutely hammered by that suspension ban during the first half of the year,
and maybe Red Bull caught a break too, considering they basically rolled into the season with what felt like a glorified test car...

If something like that happens two years in a row, I doubt it. So, I'm not expecting Ferrari to be able to go toe-to-toe with Mercedes. Maybe they can hold their own against Red Bull in the early stages of the season, but honestly, I wouldn't bet the house on that either...
Unless a serious Team Principal shows up to actually fix things, there isn't going to be any real shot at the title, no matter how much money they throw at it...

If Sebastian Vettel hadn't messed up in Singapore, they might have actually stood a chance last year... if the heat stays this intense this season, they aren't winning it regardless of the car...

I suspect Ferrari is keeping something under wraps from the rest of the grid; they’ve opted for an incredibly conservative testing strategy, likely saving the car's true potential for Melbourne.

Tibija mentioned reliability issues, though, hmm—I certainly didn't observe any signs of unreliability regarding the Fiat engines during these eight days of testing.

dustyskipper77 said:If Sebastian Vettel hadn't messed up in Singapore, they might have actually stood a chance last year... if the heat stays this intense this season, they aren't winning it regardless of the car...

Now you'll have to explain that to Tibia! Honestly, it's going to be a tough climb, so don't even bother trying.😁

Oh, absolutely...

Last year, Sebastian Vettel actually had a shot—and I mean a real shot. Part of that was his own screw-up, sure, but part of it was the team dropping the ball too...
But let's be real, Sebastian put himself in the running, and he was ahead of Lewis Hamilton mostly because Hamilton was struggling during the first half of the season... which is something you’ll probably never admit. 🙂

And yeah, it's much easier to say "Sebastian blew it in Singapore" because that's a quick sentence, whereas saying "Lewis Hamilton blew it" takes way longer. ................................
There are way more races where Hamilton totally tanked it during the early part of last season. It's actually easier to list the ones where he drove like crap—China, Barcelona, Montreal, Silverstone—than it is to list the opposite. 🙂

The fact remains: Sebastian was even in the hunt because of Hamilton's mistakes and Mercedes' own mess—maybe even because Mercedes intended it. If it hadn't been for that whole Singapore disaster, they probably would have cruised to the title without a second thought.

Mercedes has been playing cat and mouse for years now. They have a car that, back in 2014, probably could have been five seconds a lap faster if they’d actually decided to push it to the limit. That’s exactly why they know the FIA would just strip their wings the moment they showed what they could really do. They constantly whine about paint colors or whatever, inventing some fake rivalry while they drive around in conservative mode just to stay under the radar.
The big question this season isn't whether Mercedes No1 can win, it's how much life is left in that Power Unit before it gives up the ghost. 🙂

stormybadger8 said:Oh, absolutely...

Last year, Sebastian Vettel actually had a shot—and I mean a real shot. Part of that was his own screw-up, sure, but part of it was the team dropping the ball too...
But let's be real, Sebastian put himself in the running, and he was ahead of Lewis Hamilton mostly because Hamilton was struggling during the first half of the season... which is something you’ll probably never admit. 🙂

And yeah, it's much easier to say "Sebastian blew it in Singapore" because that's a quick sentence, whereas saying "Lewis Hamilton blew it" takes way longer. ................................
There are way more races where Hamilton totally tanked it during the early part of last season. It's actually easier to list the ones where he drove like crap—China, Barcelona, Montreal, Silverstone—than it is to list the opposite. 🙂

The fact remains: Sebastian was even in the hunt because of Hamilton's mistakes and Mercedes' own mess—maybe even because Mercedes intended it. If it hadn't been for that whole Singapore disaster, they probably would have cruised to the title without a second thought.

Mercedes has been playing cat and mouse for years now. They have a car that, back in 2014, probably could have been five seconds a lap faster if they’d actually decided to push it to the limit. That’s exactly why they know the FIA would just strip their wings the moment they showed what they could really do. They constantly whine about paint colors or whatever, inventing some fake rivalry while they drive around in conservative mode just to stay under the radar.
The big question this season isn't whether Mercedes No1 can win, it's how much life is left in that Power Unit before it gives up the ghost. 🙂

Let's look back at 2016, for instance. Do you really think Rosberg and Hamilton could afford to drive conservatively while they were neck-and-neck? Please. They were fighting for the championship and pushing Mercedes to the absolute limit.

stormybadger8 said:Why do you think Ferrari made such a massive blunder? 🤷

From day one, Mercedes has been miles ahead when it comes to the Power Unit... plus they’re elite with aerodynamics and chassis, their organization is top-tier, and their driver lineup is solid—especially when you look at Lewis Hamilton...

Honestly, it would be a total miracle if Ferrari suddenly didn't just catch up to Mercedes, but actually overtook them. Realistically, the only actual edge they had last year was when the FIA banned the Mercedes suspension, which completely trashed their car concept....
Everything else is just "sorry, tough luck." They didn't have a more powerful Power Unit, nor was it any more reliable. It's questionable whether the car was even better to begin with, or if it just looked that way because the suspension trick sent Mercedes crashing backward while Ferrari ended up with some weird hybrid design that wasn't even meant to work with that kind of setup...

Red Bull, on the other hand, almost certainly has the best aero and chassis out of the top three teams. There's a much higher chance that Renault catches up or at least gets close to Ferrari, which automatically puts Red Bull ahead of Ferrari—maybe even right up there with Mercedes...

Even back when Red Bull was absolutely dominating, Renault didn't exactly have the strongest or best engine, but they were close enough that the Red Bull chassis and aero could carry the whole team past everyone else...

I don't think Ferrari fundamentally screwed everything up. It's more that Mercedes is so far ahead on the Power Unit side (specifically regarding reliability) that they can easily afford to focus on performance. Meanwhile, everyone else is sweating, wondering if their three Power Units will even survive the entire season. Even now, before the season kicks off, manufacturers are already planning how their engines will die and how they'll intentionally take penalties by using four Power Units (Renault and Honda are already hinting at it, and who knows, maybe Ferrari is planning the same thing too)...
Does anyone on this planet actually expect Mercedes to go out of their way to take a penalty and limp through the season on four or five engines? 🙂

Toto mentioned to AMUS today that Ferrari actually has more horsepower with their new engine than they do.🍿

Yet, the folks watching from the track are saying Mercedes looks surprisingly sharp in the corners, looking even better than both Ferrari and Red Bull.