NBA Betting: Part 2

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:I was just using that stat to bolster my bet—and look, Tim Duncan went out and dropped 20. It’s not like LaMarcus Aldridge wouldn't have done the same, considering he takes way more shots than Duncan does.
He plays well against the Los Angeles Lakers. But as the best player for the Portland Trail Blazers, people expect elite performances—that's the job. Shooting under 50% without contributing elsewhere—rebounds, assists, blocks—just isn't what you'd call an excellent game.

Regarding the fouls, I was speaking from memory based on how he looked in tougher matchups. I actually went back and checked the stats just now; that 2.71 foul average ranks 13th among all power forwards, so he isn't exactly among the low-foul guys either. Regardless, I was pulling that number out of thin air—my apologies if it was misleading.

No, I didn't say it was a bad bet. If I had to choose, I'd take the over on Portland too. I was simply pointing out those specific data points.

Bryan Adams6 said:I literally put my entire parlay on just Denver the other day... and here we go again tonight...I can't believe they can pull off such a pathetic performance filled with absolute garbage mistakes 🤷

Here's one 🤦 because of this

Checking out the Nuggets and the Cavs lately... and honestly, I can't even be surprised.

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:Look, Paul Pierce being an idiot just screws us both over at this point. I had him on my roster, but he picks up two fouls immediately and gets benched... which just dumps all that shooting pressure onto Rajon Rondo instead...

that’s because I played it that way too🙂

guess I’m stepping into the role of Kockar now...

Melo dropped 16 buckets in the quarters 🤣 plus a 16-point cushion for the New York Knicks

stormyseal9 said:Back from my day off and I am diving straight back into the NBA madness!

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat, total points under 196.5... man, I am telling you right now, just get ready to cash that ticket because this game is going to be an absolute defensive grindfest! Why would anyone think these two teams are actually going to trade buckets all night? They aren't! It’s going to be physical, it’s going to be ugly, and honestly, if you think they're hitting the over, you clearly haven't been watching how these squads play when the intensity ramps up. Just look at the pace—it's sluggish, it's gritty, and there's zero chance we see a track meet here. I'm calling it now: under 196.5 is the only play that makes sense if you actually want to keep your money in your pocket!
Look, Domacin, are you even watching the games? Last year this team had the second-best defense in the East, especially when they were playing at Madison Square Garden where they barely let anyone crack 85 points! It’s like a fortress or something! And now look at these matchups—every single game against these guys stays well under that limit. I mean, seriously, the Boston Celtics have dipped below 90 three times in their last five outings, and Mitchell is out here hovering right around the 80 mark. How do you not see the pattern?!🤷Look, you can't seriously be judging anything based on that first game against Miami, right? I mean, come on! That's a completely different beast compared to who they're facing today, especially when you consider how tough Miami plays when they've got home-court advantage. It’s like comparing apples to oranges! You can't just take that result and run with it like it defines their whole season, because let's be real—that matchup was on a totally different level.
Man, I am telling you right now, if you aren't taking the under on OKC scoring this game, what are you even doing with your life? Seriously, how can anyone look at this lineup and think they’re just going to drop 106 or more points? It's honestly laughable! They struggle to find any rhythm when the defense tightens up, and once that happens, the whole offense just kind of falls apart, you know? You see them passing around the perimeter, looking for that perfect shot that never actually comes, and then—bam—turnover, transition bucket for the other team, and suddenly the scoreboard isn't moving at all. Why does everyone always expect these guys to explode for massive numbers every single night? It’s like people forget they aren't some unstoppable offensive juggernaut! I’ve been watching this trend for weeks, and I’m telling you, the math just doesn't add up for them to clear a line this high. Just take the under and stop overthinking it!
Props to Martin for dropping 15 boards in that massive performance, seriously, what a beast, but let’s be real for a second—James Harden is still playing on an entirely different level than him, and honestly, it’s only a matter of time before everyone realizes exactly how much they screwed up by letting him walk. I mean, do people really think they’re gonna be consistently clearing that 100+ point mark like they were in years past? I highly doubt it! On top of that, the Portland Trail Blazers actually looked like a legit squad tonight, especially after adding a superstar rookie like Damian Lillard, if you saw how he handled himself against the Los Angeles Lakers. I’m telling you, there's serious value in taking the points with the visitors, maybe even grabbing a handicap of +8.5.
Man, I am telling you right now, if you aren't taking Minnesota under 97.5, what are you even doing with your life? Seriously! Are we really going to sit here and pretend they’re going to drop nearly a hundred points on us? No way! It’s just not happening! I don't care what the pundits say or what some "expert" on ESPN thinks—it's a total trap! They just don't have that kind of offensive firepower consistently, you know? It's all hype until they hit that wall, and then suddenly it's a struggle just to get into double digits in the fourth quarter. Why does everyone always fall for these inflated totals? It drives me absolutely insane! Just take the under and stop overthinking it, for crying out loud!
Look, I’m telling you right now, without our leading scorer Love dropping his usual 26 a night and having Rubi running the point, there is absolutely no way in hell we're covering this spread! It’s impossible! Especially after seeing how the Sacramento Kings looked out there—they were playing lights out, honestly, barely breaking a sweat while they held the Chicago Bulls to a measly 93 points. How are we supposed to compete with that kind of defensive energy if we don't have our heavy hitters on the floor? It just doesn't add up!
Man, I am telling you, watching this Golden State vs. Memphis matchup is giving me a serious headache! Seriously, how does anyone actually enjoy watching this kind of grind? It’s just constant, exhausting physical play that makes me want to throw my remote at the wall! You look at what's happening on the court and it's like, is anyone even playing actual basketball anymore, or are we just watching a wrestling match disguised as an NBA game? Honestly, it's driving me absolutely insane!
Look, I’m taking the away team here because let’s be real, they actually have a decent roster and they’ve absolutely owned this matchup for the last six games straight! People are probably gonna look at the home team and call them the favorites just because they put up a solid defensive show against the Phoenix Suns recently, but please, give me a break. The visiting squad started their season with a loss 12 years in a row—I mean, seriously, how much more can they take before they finally step up? Because after that kind of streak, you'd think they'd come out today with some actual grit and a better game plan, right? I’m expecting a totally different approach tonight and a massive win, especially since the odds are sitting at a juicy 2.0. You can't tell me that's not a steal!☕.

Standard entry, SS.

Three wins and five losses... seriously? Are we actually doing this right now? I mean, look at the record! How do you even look at a stretch like that and try to act like everything is fine? It’s just straight-up bad, man. We’re stumbling around out there like we don't even know which way the basket is! What happened to the momentum we had? You can't just sit there and expect things to magically flip around when we're playing this kind of disorganized ball. It’s frustrating, it's exhausting, and honestly, it’s just embarrassing to watch at this point!

What are you even trying to say? Seriously, what's the deal here? Give me something real to work with!🤷Man, I am absolutely losing my mind right now! Seriously, I’ve got nothing left! Lamba goes and trips up with that play just twenty seconds before the buzzer, and honestly? It felt like the money was ripped straight out of my hands! How does that even happen?! My heart is actually pounding, I'm so heated!🙂

Keith Moore21 said:The matchup between the Orlando Magic and the Denver Nuggets—man, I don't know, there’s just something about this one that feels different. Maybe it's the vibes, or maybe I'm just overthinking it, but watching Orlando try to hold their own against a powerhouse like Denver is always such an interesting grind. You've got the Nuggets playing that high-level, disciplined ball, and then you have Orlando trying to disrupt the rhythm with that young energy. It’s a tough ask, honestly. I guess we'll see if the Magic can actually make things uncomfortable or if Denver just cruises through this one like they usually do. Either way, I'm buckled in. 2
Look, I’ll keep this short and sweet—Denver looks like the heavy hitters here, while Orlando is looking way weaker than they did last season. They lost some massive pieces—I'm talking about guys like Dwight Howard, Anderson, and Richardson—and even though they picked up a few solid players to fill the gaps, the overall vibe is just underwhelming. To make matters worse, they’re playing tonight without four key players due to injuries. On the flip side, Denver should be pretty much at full strength, aside from Mozg, and word on the street is that Gallinari might actually suit up. Anyway, long story short, I’m calling it now: I'm expecting Denver to grab their first win of the season tonight.

102-89 👎

JJ Redick and Big Baby absolutely tore through Denver—it was honestly kind of wild to watch. 🤦

stormyseal9 said:I am not quite sure what to say🤷, but unfortunately, seeing Lamba score just twenty seconds before the buzzer completely ruined my betting slip🙂

That was simply an unfortunate stroke of bad luck, though I have observed that you consistently prefer placing multiple parlays on player props and totals rather than sticking to single bets, which leaves me wondering why you do not just play singles instead. I began following your insights because of that Boston Celtics game, which I recall being an absolutely stellar pick, as they were sitting at roughly seventy points heading into halftime
👍

Man, Denver was a total disaster last night. It’s honestly hard to believe how pathetic their season opener was. And don't even get me started on James Harden—what an absolute train wreck to start the year. Now, can Nicolas Batum actually hold him under 30 tonight? Because if he can't do it, nobody else stands a chance.

Jesse Brown12 said:it's just because I put some money on it too🙂

I guess I’m stepping in to take over for wiredcanyon39 now, haha

Man, I’ve still got a ton to learn before I can even get close to you😉

Man, after that total disaster of a fall yesterday, I'm heading back out there today to try and grab some cash🤷

LeBron James over 26.5
-So, look, after that embarrassing blowout loss against the New York Knicks last night, I honestly think he’s gonna go absolutely ballistic on Denver, especially since their defense is basically non-existent right now. I mean, King James didn't quite hit this line in his first two outings, dropping 26 and 23, but Denver just seems to be his type of matchup, right? Since joining the Miami Heat, he's been averaging a massive 34 points while shooting over 60%, so why wouldn't he explode again?
Houston (203.5) vs Portland Trail Blazers Under
-Honestly, bringing in the Bearded One might have been the smartest move they've made in like a decade. James Harden has been absolute fire in his first two games, putting up 82 points total and dragging them to two straight wins! Both teams are playing on a back-to-back tonight, so I'm betting neither side is going to be scoring at a frantic pace. Plus, looking at Houston lately, they've won 13 of their last 15 home games, mostly by suffocating opponents—they held the Blazers to an average of only 88.7 points. I'm calling it around 190 total points for this one.☕.
Tony Parker over 18.5
-He looked pretty decent in his first two starts, putting up 23 and 14 points while shooting 45% in about 35 minutes of action. Sure, he was a little quieter against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but he was still making plays and dishing out 11 assists to keep everyone involved. I'm expecting the home team to drop at least 15 more points today, which means even more opportunities for him to get shots up. Over his last 16 appearances, he's been sitting pretty with a 22-point average.
Jennings over 17.5
-I mean, if he was able to drop a monster 21 points at Madison Square Garden yesterday, what is he supposed to do against a weak Cleveland Cavaliers squad that's basically been his favorite victim for the last few years? They've won five in a row against them, usually scoring around 110. Last season, he was consistently putting up 22 points on 50% shooting, so how can he possibly miss this?

@euskal
LeBron James over 26.5
This might land if the game turns into a total random toss-up, but if the winner is decided quickly... well, you know how that goes. Personally, I’m leaning toward Bosh over today; this looks like one of those perfect matchups for him to put on a little show, and I suspect he'll see plenty of minutes. For that same reason, I'd say Wade under.
Houston (203.5)-Portland under
I actually disagree here and expect a blowout. Houston scores plenty and plays a really fluid style, especially with James Harden in such incredible form (averaging 41 PPG!!!). Portland might be able to keep up with the pace, even if they aren't exactly sharpshooters from deep. My gut says something like 110-92, which would mean taking the spread with Houston.
Tony Parker over 18.5
I generally try to avoid betting on San Antonio Spurs players because Greg Popovich runs such a tight chemistry-based system that you never truly know who he's going to give the green light to. Today's opponent is exactly the kind of matchup that makes them unpredictable, so I’d probably pass on this one.
Jennings over 17.5
This is my lock for the day, no question about it.👍

Gary James79 said:Denver 97.5 is too low...
A gift? Hardly.

🙂
No offense intended, but "gift" and the NBA don't belong in the same sentence.

I actually took the over. I follow the trends.
Plus, Harden over 29.5. It’s a trend...

Drew Palmer66 said:🙂
No offense intended, but you can't really lump gifts and the NBA into the same conversation.

I actually took the over myself. I prefer following the current momentum.

Look, everyone's entitled to their own take, but honestly? I think that threshold feels a bit excessive by today's standards...

Here’s what I ended up putting my money on:

Rondo over 16.5
LeBron James over 26.5
Boozer over 16.5
Blake Griffin over 18.5

The first one was just a gut feeling, the second because, well, it’s LeBron James, and the third is based on my belief that he’ll maintain that shooting percentage from the first two games before they inevitably hike this line up to at least 19.5 for future matchups. As for Blake Griffin, he actually cost me some cash yesterday; he put up 15 points, picked up his fourth foul, got benched, and then just tacked on a couple more in transition 🙂 though if you look at how many shots he missed in the first half, he actually scored quite a bit, and since he’s facing a much weaker defense today, I really think those 20-plus attempts will be enough to clear this line.

16.5/Joe Biden over 1,85

Honestly, I’m just going off pure vibes here!
It’s a totally fresh squad, they're playing in a brand new arena, and they’ve got that home-court advantage on their side.

Plus, you can't deny they've definitely got the experience to back it up.

graniteotter6 said:@euskal
LeBron James over 26.5
This could work if it’s a random matchup, but if the winner is decided too quickly... well, you know how that goes.I’m leaning toward taking Bosh over today. This feels like one of those matchups that serves as the perfect stage for him to put on a bit of a show, and I suspect he might see some significant minutes. For that same reason, I’d say go with Wade under.
I’m leaning toward the Houston vs. Portland under for the 203.5 line. Just a feeling, I guess.
I’m expecting a high-scoring affair here. Houston is scoring at an incredible rate right now, their offense is flowing perfectly, and James Harden is playing out of his mind—averaging 41 PPG is just insane. I suspect Portland might actually struggle to keep up with that kind of pace. Even if they aren't exactly lighting it up from deep.My thoughts on this one—I’m leaning toward a 110-92 finish, which would mean covering the spread for Houston.
Tony Parker over 18.5
I tend to steer clear of betting on the San Antonio Spurs because Greg Popovich plays such a complex chemistry game with his roster. You never really know which player he’s going to give a specific role to on any given night. Today's matchup seems like the perfect setup for one of those unpredictable shifts, so I think I'll pass on this one.
I’m leaning toward Jennings over 17.5.
This is my pick of the day. Nailed it. 👍

Boldano got hit, but everything else is just pure bullshit.🤦
I’m still trying to find my footing with the season, but I have a feeling it isn't going to be easy.
Well, look at tonight's results. The Denver Nuggets went way over—which, if you ask me, means we should probably start looking at the Miami Heat over for future games; there's a pattern emerging there. Then you have the New Orleans Pelicans playing without Anthony Davis right after that back-to-back against the Utah Jazz, only to end up losing to the Chicago Bulls, 12 to 1. To top it all off, both Dallas and Charlotte went massively over. 😲The Indiana Pacers aren't even getting a decent seeding in the regular season, and honestly, their roster feels like a collection of inconsistent pieces that you just can't rely on. To make matters worse, I wouldn't be surprised if the Clippers end up handing a loss to the Warriors just for the icing on the cake. It’s been a rough day across the board, both in soccer and the NBA.

graniteotter6 said:Boldano got stung, everything else is just pure bullshit.🤦
I'm still trying to find my rhythm with this season, but man, it is not going to be easy.
Just look at tonight—the Denver Nuggets went way over (yeah, okay, so Miami Heat covers the spread, there's our pattern for the future, right?), then the New Orleans Pelicans without Anthony Davis after playing the Utah Jazz on a back-to-back actually take the win in Chicago (1, 2 on the Chicago Bulls), while Dallas Mavericks and Charlotte Hornets both go crazy over 😲, Indiana Pacers can't even pull a win in the regular season because their roster is such a mess of inconsistent players who you just can't trust. On top of all that, I'm half-expecting the Clippers to choke against the Warriors just for the icing on the cake. What a garbage day, both in soccer and the NBA.

There aren't any rules here, honestly, because tomorrow things could flip back to how they were in a heartbeat! It was totally expected that the Houston Rockets would go under since fatigue is a huge factor, and I mean, we can't hit 200+ points every single night, right? I was torn between picking LeBron James or taking the under on Dwyane Wade, but whatever, it is what it is. While Monta Ellis has been a massive surprise to me, he’s basically just doing the same hot-and-cold thing he did last year. Tony Parker was an expected over, and since Tim Duncan is involved, maybe we see an under on Tim because it's rare for him to go over three times in a row—which is usually his deal—but hey, we'll just have to see how the momentum shifts.

I ran two different slips today, so I’m gonna split them up here for you guys☕

Russell Westbrook over 23.5
-Look, he’s a weird player, okay? Total wildcard. But man, am I thankful for him when betting because he’s got such a massive green light that he just doesn't care—he'll happily chuck 20+ shots a night if that's what it takes. His start to the season wasn't exactly pretty against the San Antonio Spurs where he dropped 18 points on a miserable 6-of-21 shooting, but then he goes against the Portland Trail Blazers and suddenly it's a whole different story, right? He was dialed in, hitting 13-of-24 for 32 points! And don't forget, against the Atlanta Hawks over the last three games, he’s been averaging a solid 25 points per outing.
Kobe Bryant over 27.5
-People were seriously questioning if he’d even start the season because of that injury, but honestly, Kobe showed up and played surprisingly well. Especially with his efficiency—usually, he rarely cracks the 50% mark, but after three games, he’s sitting at over 60% on twos and 50% from deep. And let's be real, if the Los Angeles Lakers end up losing today, they'd be heading into the worst start since this whole franchise moved to Los Angeles. I don't believe for a second that Kobe is gonna let that happen without letting it rip, and if he has to take 30 shots to get there, he will.
New York Knicks under 96.5
-I know, I know, some people are pointing out how they dropped 104 on the Miami Heat the other day, but let's be honest: they basically got lucky because the defense was absolute garbage and allowed 19 three-pointers! The Philadelphia 76ers are known for having a gritty, tough defense, and I just don't see them letting something like that slide again. Plus, look at their recent games—they’ve been consistently keeping opponents well under this margin.

Philadelphia 76ers - New York Knicks 98-90
Philadelphia 76ers - New York Knicks 79-82
New York Knicks - Philadelphia 76ers 94-106
New York Knicks - Philadelphia 76ers 85-79
Carmelo Anthony under 27.5
-The same logic applies to him as it does to the team. He put up 30 against Miami (10-of-28), but let's call it what it was: mostly thanks to his perimeter game (4-of-8 from three). But today? He shouldn't be looking to go crazy for the reasons I mentioned before. You also have to factor in the return of Marcus Camby and DeAndre Chandler; with them back in the mix, he's probably going to settle for fewer shots inside.
Orlando Magic (-2.5) over Phoenix Suns 1
-I seriously don't get why everyone is sleeping on the Magic. In their first game, they proved that even without Dwight Howard, they're still a highly respectable squad that can make anyone's life a nightmare. They’ve won 5 of their last 6 against the Phoenix Suns, including a 3-game win streak where they averaged a 16-point margin. To me, that’s more than enough to make the call, especially since when the Suns lose lately, they tend to get blown out by more than the spread offered here. If you're feeling a bit shaky about it, just taking the straight win at 1.85 is fine too.☕.

Good luck to everyone following along👍, just a heads up that the first three picks were placed through High Level, and the rest are through Favorite.