Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

Stats: 3W/0L (14.75 units)

Analysis No.: 3
Match: VfL Wolfsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Pick: 1
Odds: 3.10
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Time: 11/11/2012 / 3:30 PM
Stake: 3/10

I suppose I just couldn't pass up this particular set of odds. It seems to me that Leverkusen is dealing with quite a few absences regarding their key players, and since they were playing in the Europa League this past Thursday, they might be lacking a bit of freshness when facing Wolfsburg. I suspect Wolfsburg actually possesses a much more talented roster than what the league standings currently suggest; ever since Magath departed, they seem to have played with a bit more relaxation, which I think has finally allowed them to start looking like a cohesive team. Even their standout star, Diego—who reminds me somewhat of our own Christian Pulisic—has arguably started playing a more refined style of football lately. Wolfsburg hasn't managed a home win yet this season, so perhaps it is finally time for that trend to change.

Out:

VfL Wolfsburg: Kevin Pannewitz (MID 0/0), Ferhan Hasani (MID 3/0), Mateusz Klich (MID 0/0), Felipe Lopes (DEF 1/0), Sotirios Kyrgiakos (DEF 0/0), Marco Russ (DEF 0/0), Hrvoje Čale (DEF 0/0), Slobodan Medojević (MID (0/0), Maximilian Arnold (MID (0/0), Václav Pilař (MID 0/0)

Bayer Leverkusen: Karim Bellarabi (MID 8/0), Simon Rolfes (MID 8/0), Michal Kadlec (DEF 8/1), Daniel Schwaab (DEF 4/0), Renato Augusto (MID 2/0), Bernd Leno (GK 9/0)

LAFC vs. LA Galaxy - Under 3.5 @1.70
Honestly, the odds on this under 3.5 seem way too high—usually, you’d see these kinds of numbers for an under 2.5 line. Both teams are scoring plenty lately, sure, but I don't really see one side totally running away with it and smashing four goals past the other. It feels more like it'll be a gritty, tight affair... maybe even a 1-1 draw if things go sideways. It's a massive local derby, so the tension is going to be through the roof, and at these odds? I guess it's definitely worth a shot.
Atlanta United vs. Inter Miami - Atlanta +2 @1.65
Atlanta has been playing some solid soccer this season, especially when they're at home, but I don't think they're really going to pull an upset here. This whole matchup seems to revolve around Miami. After that recent stumble against Celtic, they're probably desperate to get back on track. Personally, I wouldn't want to risk a loss today that might cause some drama in their locker room. There's just no debating the talent gap; Miami is on another level, and if they actually show up with some motivation, they should cover the spread easily.
Seattle Sounders vs. New York City FC - Seattle +2 @1.80
It's a pretty similar vibe to the last one. NYCFC is trailing big in the standings, and they really can't afford another slip-up. They choked in the last round of MLS, so they basically need a win today just to keep the peace internally. Quality-wise, there's no contest—NYCFC is much better on paper. I'm thinking they'll step it up today after looking pretty lackluster against Dortmund.

Daniel Watson9 said:Stats: 3W/0L (14.75 units)

Analysis No.: 3
Match: Wolfsburg vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Pick: 1
Odds: 3.10
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Time: 11.11. 2012. / 3:30 PM
Wager: 3/10

I just couldn't pass up these odds—seriously. Bayer is dealing with a massive headache right now because so many key players are sidelined, plus they were grinding through a Europa League match this past Thursday, so they’re probably going to be gassed compared to Wolfsburg. Honestly, looking at the standings doesn't tell the whole story—Wolfsburg actually has a way better squad than people give them credit for. Ever since Magath left, they've finally loosened up and started playing like an actual cohesive team instead of a mess. Even their biggest star, Diego (shoutout to our guy!), has finally started clicking and playing some decent football. They haven't pulled off a home win yet this season, and it's about damn time they broke that streak.

Out:

Wolfsburg: Kevin Pannewitz (MID 0/0), Ferhan Hasani (MID 3/0), Mateusz Klich (MID 0/0), Felipe Lopes (DEF 1/0), Sotirios Kyrgiakos (DEF 0/0), Marco Russ (DEF 0/0), Hrvoje Čale (DEF 0/0), Slobodan Medojević (MID (0/0), Maximilian Arnold (MID (0/0), Václav Pilař (MID 0/0)

Bayer Leverkusen: Karim Bellarabi (MID 8/0), Simon Rolfes (MID 8/0), Michal Kadlec (DEF 8/1), Daniel Schwaab (DEF 4/0), Renato Augusto (MID 2/0), Bernd Leno (GK 9/0)

Bayer isn't bad, though—they just got schooled at the Allianz Arena recently. Now they're looking more like Rapid, coming off five straight wins.

Dennis Gonzalez2 said:The Lakers actually took down Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena recently, and they're looking pretty sharp right now, having cruised to three straight wins in their last five outings.

10.03.12 BUN Wolfsburg Leverkusen 3 : 2
01.10.11 BUN Leverkusen Wolfsburg 3 : 1
05.03.11 BUN Leverkusen Wolfsburg 3 : 0
16.10.10 BUN Wolfsburg Leverkusen 2 : 3
13.02.10 BUN Leverkusen Wolfsburg 2 : 1

Wolfsburg 10 2 2 6 6:17 8
Leverkusen 10 5 3 2 18:14 18

I think I'm going to play it a bit safer and go with Over 1.5 at 1.55 odds (SS).

Wolfsburg hasn't managed a home win yet—their goal difference at home is sitting at a rough 1:9 over four matches—but I have to admit they seem to be slowly finding their footing, albeit incredibly slowly. Leverkusen, on the other hand, looks decent when they travel:
Leverkusen 5 2 1 2 8:9 7
They score plenty of goals, they've got a solid squad, and I suspect they'll keep seeing good results for a while longer. I don't see them hitting a wall until maybe two months from now when fatigue finally sets in, so it feels worth following them for the goal markets for a little while still.
As for Relegation, I haven't heard anything new regarding injuries or absences, so if anyone happens to stumble upon some intel, feel free to share it.

So, here's my plan:
The safe bet: Over 1.5 at 1.55
The slightly gutsier move: Over 3+ at 1.80 (both SS odds)

Personally, I think betting on a single winner is a bit too brave, unless you've got money to burn and want to throw it into a parlay or a single.

Stuttgart vs Hannover
11.11.2012 17:30

Playing at home doesn't tell the whole story here; they've conceded seven goals while scoring four, but I did notice they've managed to find the back of the net in their last two matches. They had a pretty rough start to the season in my eyes, but I'm expecting them to slowly start climbing both the standings and their general form.
Hannover hasn't been great on the road, picking up just one win and dropping three, with a goal difference sitting at 6:7, though it's worth noting they're currently sitting 5th in the league for offense—even if they are leaking quite a few goals themselves (20:16).

So, I'm completely in the dark regarding any injuries or absences, so if anyone out there feels like sharing some insight or actually knows what's going on with the rosters...

Over 1.5 goals 1.55 (this one feels a bit safer to me)
Over 2.5 goals 1.90 (both odds from SS)

19.02.12 BUN Hannover Stuttgart 4 : 2
10.09.11 BUN Stuttgart Hannover 3 : 0
07.05.11 BUN Stuttgart Hannover 2 : 1
10.12.10 BUN Hannover Stuttgart 2 : 1
20.03.10 BUN Stuttgart Hannover 2 : 0

Good luck to whoever decides to jump in.

Roger Phillips said:Corinthians-Coritiba 1 1,80

Full Time 5:1

The final round of the USL Championship is coming up—we're looking at the bottom of the table here;

Scoreline
This whole thing boils down to pure grit and desire... and honestly, yeah, talent too.
Alta is sitting dead last right now, staring down relegation to the lower leagues. They’ve been stuck in the NWSL for ages, and they desperately need points on the road just to survive.
I mean, talk about bad luck—they couldn't have picked a worse opponent to face. Even though they're playing away, you seriously cannot afford to blow a chance like this.
Look, it's true their competitors are facing tough matchups too. Strommen is heading out to face Ranheim, who are also hunting for points and maybe even a playoff spot, and then you've got Bryn traveling to play Ull/Kisa—it's a similar mess all around.
But get this—last round, Tromsdalen absolutely dismantled a powerhouse like Bodo/Glimt 3-0 on their own turf. That tells you everything you need to know about how badly they want to stay up. They are definitely going after those survival points against an Alta side that's struggling. There's some solid value here around 1.65-1.70.
"Alta without Nome(mf 25/2),Taulo(mf 5/0),Erlandsen(df 0/0),Nilsson(df 22/0),Ngom(att 0/0) and Erstas(att 20/6 ,2nd scorer)".

GL

Relegation updates:
Chievo Verona vs Udinese
Chievo Verona: Squizzi (0/0 g), Cesar (6/0 d), Dramé (6/0 d), Frey (9/0 d)
Udinese: Benatia (7/0 d), Pinzi (7/1 m), Bad (6/0 m), Gabriel Silva (2/0 d) (all doubtful), Muriel (2/0 f), Willians (3/0 m), Pasquale (5/0 d), Domizzi (8/1 d)

Genoa vs Napoli
Genoa: Ferronetti (2/0 d), Vargas (2/0 m), Jorquera (8/0 m), Anselmo (3/0 m), Bova (7/0 d)
Napoli: Zuniga (8/0 m)

Parma vs Siena
Parma: Santacroce (0/0 d), Galloppa (7/1 m) (both doubtful)
Siena: Martinez (0/0 d) (doubtful), Rodriguez (5/0 m), Rosin (6/0 m), Zè Eduardo (8/1 f), Larrondo (0/0 f)

Torino vs Bologna
Torino: Suciu (0/0 m)
Bologna: Carvalho (4/0 d), Acquafresca (4/0 f), Gimenez (2/0 f), Natali (4/0 d), Morleo (10/0 d)

Atalanta vs Inter Milan
Atalanta: Bellini (4/0 d), Scozzarella (3/0 m) (both doubtful), Radovanovic (0/0 m), Ferreira (0/0 m), Capelli (0/0 d)
Inter Milan: Coutinho (5/1 m), Obi (1/0 m), Mariga (0/0 m), Sneijder (5/1 m), Chivu (0/0 d), Stankovic (0/0 m), Ranocchia (11/1 d), Samuel (7/1 d), Mudingayi (6/0 m) (doubtful)

Alright, here are a few picks for teams that basically "have" to win today:
Sandnes - Stromsgodset 2 @2.00
There are only two rounds left in the USL Championship, and the visitors are trailing the leaders, Molde, by just one point—plus they’re sitting three points ahead of Rosenborg. If they actually want to stay in the title hunt and keep that gap over Rosenborg, they really need to take care of business against a Sandnes side that’s currently scraping along at the bottom of the table.
Stabaek - Songdal 2 @1.80
Songdal is sitting just one spot above the relegation zone, so if they slip up today, they could easily tumble right down into it. On the flip side, the home team is dead last and doesn't have a prayer of staying up. Honestly, this game probably means nothing to them at this point; I wouldn't be surprised if they've already mentally checked out for vacation.
Mjondalen - IF Ham Kam 1 @2.00
The home side is just two points away from the promotion zone. Since it's the final round, if they want any hope of pulling off that big promotion push, they pretty much have to win. As for Ham Kam, they're stuck right in the middle of the pack—neither fighting for anything big nor worrying about dropping down. They're just kind of... there.

wiredcanyon39 said:Here are three picks on teams that absolutely "need" the win:
Sandnes vs Songdal 2 @2.00
There are only two rounds left in the USL Championship, and the visitors are trailing the leaders, Molde, by just one point—putting them three points ahead of Rosenborg. If they want to stay in the title race and keep that edge over Rosenborg, they really need to take care of this home side that’s currently languishing at the bottom of the table.
Stabaek vs Songdal 2 @1.80
Songdal is sitting just one spot above the relegation zone, so if they slip up today, they could easily tumble right into it. Meanwhile, the home team is dead last and doesn't have a prayer of staying up; honestly, this match probably means nothing to them, and they've likely already checked out mentally for the season.
Mjondalen vs Ham Kam 1 @2.00
The hosts are just two points away from a promotion spot, and since it's the final stretch, they have to win if they want to keep those big promotion dreams alive. Ham Kam is stuck right in the middle of the pack, with nothing to play for either up or down.

I can't quite get behind that Mjondalen vs Ham Kam pick; the second team needs the points for the League playoffs, while the first team is already safe in the qualification spots anyway.

boldheron27 said:I think I'm on board with how things might go for Mjondalen vs Ham Kam. The second team really needs those points to stay relevant in the League playoffs, whereas for the first one, it doesn't matter much since they've already secured their spot in the qualifiers.

Called it. Thanks! 😁

electriccyclist20 said:Stuttgart vs Hannover
11.11.2012 17:30

Stuttgart playing at home isn't exactly anything to write home about—they’ve only managed 4 goals while coughing up 7—but hey, they did bag 4 goals over their last two matches. Honestly, they started this season looking pretty rough if you ask me, but I'm expecting them to slowly climb back up both in terms of form and in the standings...
As for Hannover, they're looking pretty shaky on the road—just one win and three losses with a goal difference of 6:7—though you gotta mention they're sitting 5th in the league right now, even if they're leaking goals like a sieve (20:16).

Now, as for injuries or missing players, I don't know a damn thing, so if anyone actually knows what's going on with the roster or has any inside info...

OVER 1.5 goals 1.55 (this feels like a safer bet to me)
OVER 2.5 goals 1.90 (both SS odds)

02.19.12 BUN Hannover-Stuttgart 4 : 2
09.10.11 BUN Stuttgart-Hannover 3 : 0
05.07.11 BUN Stuttgart-Hannover 2 : 1
12.10.10 BUN Hannover-Stuttgart 2 : 1
03.20.10 BUN Stuttgart-Hannover 2 : 0

Good luck to whoever decides to jump in

Stuttgart vs Hannover Over 2.5 1.65
I'm playing the goals market here too. Stuttgart really needs to hunt for a win—they're finally finding their rhythm and picking up form, unbeaten in their last 5 games.
Their opponent is Hannover, a squad that clearly has zero clue how to play defense, especially when they're traveling, which explains why their away record is such a mess.
They just give up goals way too easily... And honestly, Stuttgart's defense is just as shaky or even worse; even at home, they concede far too often—the only team that managed to keep them quiet was Dusseldorf (0:0).
Hannover is coming in hungry for a win, which is an interesting matchup. The home side is looking to keep their momentum going, and if you look at their head-to-head history, goals seem to be a guarantee whenever these two meet:

02.19.12 Hannover-Stuttgart 4:2
09.10.11 Stuttgart-Hannover 3:0

05.07.11 Stuttgart-Hannover 2:1
12.10.10 Hannover-Stuttgart 2:1

wiredcanyon39 said:Stabaek vs Songdal 2 @1.80
Songdal is hovering right above the relegation zone. If they mess up today, they're dropping down. Meanwhile, the home side is dead last with zero chance at survival. Honestly, this game probably doesn't even matter to them anymore. They've already checked out.

Songdal's top scorer over at U. Flo is sidelined with an injury. Looking at the "talent" on both sides here, I'm not feeling a visitor win anytime soon.