Gold: Past, Present, and Future

Even if gold drops to $1,630, we'll probably see an insane spike back up toward $1,800 within days. It’ll either be because everyone rushes from paper contracts into physical bullion, or the gap between paper prices and actual physical gold just rips apart.
It’s like what happened back in 2008 when silver plummeted 30% on the exchanges, yet you couldn't find a single dealer willing to sell at those rates. They either claimed they were out of stock or just suspended physical sales entirely.

Patrick Moore3 said:There isn't one. Gold is hitting $2000 for sure. It's just a matter of whether it happens in 3 months, 3 years, or 30 years. Once the fundamentals shift, my stance shifts...

My bad, I wasn't quoting you verbatim, just paraphrasing what was in my head...

Fine, let's put it in writing then... 83+, a Wall Street meltdown, and gold under $1630!
By when? Spring 2013 at the latest.
Now we just wait for 🙂

Oof, those forecasts of yours are looking pretty bright. If that actually happens, silver's gonna tank below $28.😍

Melissa Sanchez17 said:Oof, those forecasts of yours are looking pretty bright. If that actually happens, silver's gonna tank below $28.😍

That wouldn't just be a minor shift—it would mean everything. We’re talking about a total 180-degree policy reversal, which would likely signal the death knell for our current bull market. Sure, that implies silver dropping below $28, but in the grand scheme of things, that's just noise. I think... As long as the Fed keeps pumping money into the system, market crashes aren't happening. Period.The Fed can print money until they're blue in the face. In the medium term, the only thing this is going to trigger is a controlled bear market driven by rising oil prices. We’re looking at a perfect storm: the stock market drifting lower while commodities—led by oil and gold—start heading north.

Francis is basically telling us to stop dragging our feet on ending the Fed's stimulus and just let the stock market face reality—even if that reality is a total crash. He wants gold prices to actually reflect what's happening right now. His whole point is that the Titanic should just hit the iceberg immediately, rather than continuing this policy of sailing the ship around the world for two more laps before finally crashing. If we want gold to hit that $10,000 an ounce target, we need exactly that: we need the Titanic to refuel so it can take three more unnecessary laps before the impact.

Patrick Moore3 said:There isn't one. Gold is hitting $2000 for sure. It's just a matter of whether it happens in 3 months, 3 years, or 30 years. Once the fundamentals shift, my stance shifts...

My bad, I wasn't quoting you verbatim, just paraphrasing what was in my head...

Fine, let's put it in writing then... 83+, a Wall Street meltdown, and gold under $1630!
By when? Spring 2013 at the latest.
Now we just wait for 🙂

Finally, someone with some actual perspective. 🙂 👍

quiettrucker12 said:That wouldn't just be a minor shift—it would mean everything. We’re talking about a total 180-degree policy reversal, which would likely signal the death knell for our current bull market. Sure, that implies silver dropping below $28, but in the grand scheme of things, that's just noise. I think... As long as the Fed keeps pumping money into the system, market crashes aren't happening. Period.The Fed can print money until they're blue in the face. In the medium term, the only thing this is going to trigger is a controlled bear market driven by rising oil prices. We’re looking at a perfect storm: the stock market drifting lower while commodities—led by oil and gold—start heading north.

Francis is basically telling us to stop dragging our feet on ending the Fed's stimulus and just let the stock market face reality—even if that reality is a total crash. He wants gold prices to actually reflect what's happening right now. His whole point is that the Titanic should just hit the iceberg immediately, rather than continuing this policy of sailing the ship around the world for two more laps before finally crashing. If we want gold to hit that $10,000 an ounce target, we need exactly that: we need the Titanic to refuel so it can take three more unnecessary laps before the impact.

Look, I'm with you on the bull market stuff, which is why I said I'd love to see it hit those levels, even though I'm skeptical. Besides, I was pretty clear about waiting until after these elections pass before making any big moves with gold, silver, or stocks. Most of this current chaos feels like nothing more than standard market noise to me. Whether gold hits $10,000 while the DJI sits at 10,000 (or even less), who knows? You definitely have to watch the Gold/DJIA ratio and know exactly when to bail on gold. As for silver, I'm not selling. I view it as a ten-year-plus play, so I couldn't care less about the daily swings—I'll just bury it somewhere and let it sit; it'll come in handy for my kids one day eventually.😍

Melissa Sanchez17 said:Look, I'm with you on the bull market stuff, which is why I said I'd love to see it hit those levels, even though I'm skeptical. Besides, I was pretty clear about waiting until after these elections pass before making any big moves with gold, silver, or stocks. Most of this current chaos feels like nothing more than standard market noise to me. Whether gold hits $10,000 while the DJI sits at 10,000 (or even less), who knows? You definitely have to watch the Gold/DJIA ratio and know exactly when to bail on gold. As for silver, I'm not selling. I view it as a ten-year-plus play, so I couldn't care less about the daily swings—I'll just bury it somewhere and let it sit; it'll come in handy for my kids one day eventually.😍

Yeah, assuming they actually manage to find it and dig it up so they can make some chains or whatever. 😁
Why bother buying them high-quality stocks instead, say at a 1:1 gold ratio? They'd just blow through all that cash anyway.😉

vividgull10 said:Finally, someone with some actual perspective. 🙂 👍

Sure🤣.....he’s about as neutral as Donald Trump after the election results come in......😂

dustyheron5 said:Sure🤣.....he’s about as neutral as Donald Trump after the election results come in......😂

Personally, I’m fine with seeing someone actually account for time. Whether we're talking three months, three years, or thirty, he's keeping the door open to changing his mind as things evolve.

It's a hell of a lot better than most of the posts on this board, where everyone acts like the Dollar is going to collapse either this afternoon or sometime tonight.

quiettrucker12 said:Yeah, assuming they actually manage to find it and dig it up so they can make some chains or whatever. 😁
Why bother buying them high-quality stocks instead, say at a 1:1 gold ratio? They'd just blow through all that cash anyway.😉

If we're talking about a 1:1 ratio, I'm buying stocks for myself 😍—and I seriously hope it doesn't take twenty years for that ratio to hit 1:1. 😉

Melissa Sanchez17 said:If we're talking about a 1:1 ratio, I'm buying stocks for myself 😍—and I seriously hope it doesn't take twenty years for that ratio to hit 1:1. 😉

And then you buy them for them? What would they even do with silver? In about ten years—assuming we aren't busy fighting wars—we'll be living in a completely different, much better world where metals like gold and silver won't even be all that valuable.

vividgull10 said:Personally, I’m fine with seeing someone actually account for time. Whether we're talking three months, three years, or thirty, he's keeping the door open to changing his mind as things evolve.

It's a hell of a lot better than most of the posts on this board, where everyone acts like the Dollar is going to collapse either this afternoon or sometime tonight.

Take a look back at my post from September 20, 2011. I wrote then that it would take a long time for gold to hit 1,900 again. Well, it's been nearly 14 months since then, and we finally hit that 1,900 mark.

The Dollar isn't going to vanish this afternoon or tomorrow. Instead, we're entering a period of gradual devaluation. Back in the spring, when everyone thought the Euro was dying, I wrote that the Dollar would hold its crown until maybe summer, but warned that a shift was coming.

quiettrucker12 said:Take a look back at my post from September 20, 2011. I wrote then that it would take a long time for gold to hit 1,900 again. Well, it's been nearly 14 months since then, and we finally hit that 1,900 mark.

The Dollar isn't going to vanish this afternoon or tomorrow. Instead, we're entering a period of gradual devaluation. Back in the spring, when everyone thought the Euro was dying, I wrote that the Dollar would hold its crown until maybe summer, but warned that a shift was coming.

We'll just have to wait and see.
Personally, I don't bother with forecasts. I don't need them to trade, and honestly, they usually just get in my way.
If we’re just talking pure mental gymnastics and crystal ball gazing here, I’m leaning toward the idea that the dollar still has one more massive leg up left in it—probably pushing past 84. The stage is already set for it.
I'll say it again: I'm taking that "forecast" with a massive grain of salt. We're living in a pre-market phase, and at the end of the day, the market is whatever the market is.

PS.
I wasn't taking a shot at you or anyone else in my last post. It was just an observation about the general vibe of this thread. 😉

vividgull10 said:We'll just have to wait and see.
Personally, I don't bother with forecasts. I don't need them to trade, and honestly, they usually just get in my way.
If we’re just talking pure mental gymnastics and crystal ball gazing here, I’m leaning toward the idea that the dollar still has one more massive leg up left in it—probably pushing past 84. The stage is already set for it.
I'll say it again: I'm taking that "forecast" with a massive grain of salt. We're living in a pre-market phase, and at the end of the day, the market is whatever the market is.

PS.
I wasn't taking a shot at you or anyone else in my last post. It was just an observation about the general vibe of this thread. 😉

There’s a strong case for ignoring the timing aspect here, and that’s because gold is currently sitting in a massive secular bull market (if you don't believe me, just look at the charts since 2000) which has its own predictable corrections. In a bull market like this, Buy and hold while ignoring timing and minor pullbacks is a solid recipe for profit. For me, however, timing is everything—but strictly as a tool to spot those specific corrections within the larger uptrend.

Trading, speculating, and investing all look different because of that single factor: time. I don't quite get why you're so hung up on the timing component while ignoring the actual forecast—you know, what happens tomorrow, next week, next month, or next year. No matter how you trade, we're essentially placing bets based on probabilities. If our probability assessments are sharp, all we need is decent money management, and we're set. Whether you arrive at a forecast through fundamentals, technicals, or gut feeling, you're still just making a prediction to bet on.

The Dollar might do what you think, but it doesn't look like a likely scenario to me. Calling that prediction "yesterday's news" is probably accurate. If you think it's outdated too, why not just drop it now that the circumstances have shifted?

My approach is to identify where the bottom is—or when it's getting close—and ride it to the top. I try to anticipate the trend while staying protected by the massive bull market, which eventually corrects any mistakes I make.

vividgull10 said:We'll just have to wait and see.
Personally, I don't bother with forecasts. I don't need them to trade, and honestly, they usually just get in my way.
If we’re just talking pure mental gymnastics and crystal ball gazing here, I’m leaning toward the idea that the dollar still has one more massive leg up left in it—probably pushing past 84. The stage is already set for it.
I'll say it again: I'm taking that "forecast" with a massive grain of salt. We're living in a pre-market phase, and at the end of the day, the market is whatever the market is.

PS.
I wasn't taking a shot at you or anyone else in my last post. It was just an observation about the general vibe of this thread. 😉

So far, we saw that after I wrote that back on September 20, 2011, gold dropped to $1523 (it would have hit $1450 if things hadn't played out differently). Now we wait to see if it hits 1900 soon. I don't feel like digging through old posts right now, but I've said multiple times that gold might need a year of consolidation after a correction before it regains momentum. It's weird that you're criticizing my focus on timing when I've highlighted, defined, and emphasized it repeatedly. Timing is practically my obsession in all of this. Maybe it's because you aren't seeing the massive bull market that's been running for over a decade, where these corrections happen with surgical precision. Or maybe these long timeframes, year-long consolidations, and multi-month momentum swings just seem endless to you...

Even Dan Norcini is scratching his head over this whole QE3 situation.

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com...heres-qe3.html

dustyheron5 said:Sorry if my analysis looks silly to you—I find it quite solid.😂

As for how long you've been posting here, frankly, I couldn't care less whether you started in the Stone Age or yesterday; I focus on the content, not the format.😉

Regarding the excitement over QE3—of course I'm celebrating it, because it's one of the measures keeping everything from crashing into an MP3 player... or rather, preventing an immediate total collapse.😁

By the way, I don't recall saying you write nonsense.🤣..that isn't my style. In this market, you are either right or you are wrong—if I spent my time telling people they were being stupid, I wouldn't have a career; I'd just be someone sending angry letters to the people who send me newsletters.😂

I said someone... not you... that person knows exactly who I mean.

quiettrucker12 said:That wouldn't just be a minor shift—it would mean everything. We’re talking about a total 180-degree policy reversal, which would likely signal the death knell for our current bull market. Sure, that implies silver dropping below $28, but in the grand scheme of things, that's just noise. I think... As long as the Fed keeps pumping money into the system, market crashes aren't happening. Period.The Fed can print money until they're blue in the face. In the medium term, the only thing this is going to trigger is a controlled bear market driven by rising oil prices. We’re looking at a perfect storm: the stock market drifting lower while commodities—led by oil and gold—start heading north.

Francis is basically telling us to stop dragging our feet on ending the Fed's stimulus and just let the stock market face reality—even if that reality is a total crash. He wants gold prices to actually reflect what's happening right now. His whole point is that the Titanic should just hit the iceberg immediately, rather than continuing this policy of sailing the ship around the world for two more laps before finally crashing. If we want gold to hit that $10,000 an ounce target, we need exactly that: we need the Titanic to refuel so it can take three more unnecessary laps before the impact.

Exactly! I think it's obvious to everyone here that things are... bananas. A crash is inevitable. Only two things are still up in the air: when it happens, and how gold behaves during the chaos. If the crash doesn't happen, it probably goes your way... if it does, then it plays out exactly like you described.

We’ve all placed our bets, and I guess we'll just wait for the dust to settle to see who called it. One thing working in my colleagues' favor is that, if you ask me, the stock market is bottoming out right now. Naturally, this whole debate is getting a bit emotional—which is exactly what happens whenever things hit rock bottom.

Man, these threads... 🤦

dustyheron5 said:Great breakdown, colleague—really solid overview of the current situation. I’m hoping things play out exactly like this, as I find myself in total agreement with your assessment.
I pulled the trigger today and bought ERF at $13.01, just like I mentioned yesterday... so, it's done.
Now, I'll just grab some popcorn and keep a close eye on things.

Smart move on the buy.

I always seem to have issues with the logistics of physical stuff: part of it happens on Saturdays, part on Fridays. During the week, it's just physically impossible for me given my job, traveling internationally, and all the moving parts involved. Plus, I don't really feel comfortable buying or transporting physical goods by myself, nor do I want to have them shipped to my house—I'd rather not be indiscreet and risk someone figuring out my business or, God forbid, causing more trouble than it's worth. I also generally avoid buying through NL because of those ID verification requirements. But, it is what it is.

And, if I may say so somewhat bashfully, this is what I've been eyeing: POT
It’s got a good P/E, decent cash flow, almost zero debt, and a long history of dividends. It’s driven by gas right now, but once that climbs, they’re integrated into the food industry, so I suspect that side will follow suit in a sort of domino effect...

go easy on me...

quiettrucker12 said:We’ve all placed our bets, and I guess we'll just wait for the dust to settle to see who called it. One thing working in my colleagues' favor is that, if you ask me, the stock market is bottoming out right now. Naturally, this whole debate is getting a bit emotional—which is exactly what happens whenever things hit rock bottom.

👍

Now we can just sit back and wait for 🍿

(p.s. to everyone else... don't get it twisted, these are just my forecasts, not my wishes)

At peace?

Personally, I don't think we have many true gold bugs in this group, if any at all. Most people here seem to be holding a mixed bag of assets, which makes me wonder why everyone is getting so worked up.

Look, it’s not like the world is going to end tomorrow.

Even if Buffett’s ("..land will outperform gold..", assuming some unfortunate side effects happen along the way) prediction actually plays out, I think I'll still be in a pretty good spot.