lonehawk5
Active Member
161 messages
joined Oct 2012
Gold demand in the US is probably going to tank by about 33 percent, hitting roughly 700 tonnes this year. People just aren't buying because prices are through the roof and inflation is killing everyone after those terrible harvest seasons... according to the World Gold Council today.
"We're looking at total demand for the year landing somewhere between 688 and 700 tonnes. That’s a massive 28 to 33 percent drop compared to last year," the WGC Managing Director for the US and Middle East, Ajay Mitra, told reporters.
But, he claims, things might pick up in the back half of the year once the holiday season and wedding season hit the final two quarters—especially if the Treasury Secretary steps in with some moves to boost confidence.
"Our take? The worst is behind us. We expect a rebound thanks to the holidays. The slide should slow down. Plus, we think all those measures coming from the Treasury will help get consumers feeling better again," he said.
Looking at the numbers, demand in the first half of the year dropped by 15 percent in value, totaling about $1.2 trillion compared to the $1.48 trillion seen during the same stretch back in 2011. Even by weight, demand plummeted 36 percent, down to 383.2 tonnes from 596 tonnes in early 2011.
"Demand in the first half of 2012 has been totally sluggish, mostly because the macro economy is a mess. The US economy has been growing at its slowest pace in nine years lately. Everyone is feeling pessimistic because the US is staring down sub-6 percent GDP growth for the fiscal year, thanks to bad weather affecting crops and a depressing global outlook," Mitra noted.
He went on to say that everything hit gold demand at once: stalling GDP, record-high local prices, and currency swings, all made worse by domestic inflation and worries over failing harvests.
Jewelry demand took a hit too, dropping 8 percent in value to about $870 billion in the first half, down from $945 billion during the same period last year.
By weight, jewelry demand crashed 30 percent, falling to 262.9 tonnes from 378 tonnes in 2011.
Investment demand sat at $398 billion, a 27 percent drop year-over-year, and in terms of actual weight, it was at 120.3 tonnes—that's 45 percent lower than the same time last year.
Local gold prices jumped 29 percent in the second quarter, averaging about $850 per ounce, up from $630 in the same quarter last year. Meanwhile, globally, the price only climbed 7 percent.
On the import side, Mitra mentioned they hit 340 tonnes in the first half, and July actually saw the best numbers since January.
"If people stop selling off their old scrap gold, imports might actually start climbing," he added.
Global supply took a huge dive, falling 48 percent to 1,117.8 tonnes in the first half compared to 2,144 tonnes last year, mostly because of bad weather and shutdowns at several mining sites.
Moving forward, mine production is likely to stay flat for the rest of 2012 before a bunch of new operations are set to launch next year.
One of the reasons for yesterday's crash...
