Started by Richard Wilson4 · · 👁 6 views · 3.6K replies
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mistynomad60 said:I honestly think Mexico is hitting rock bottom in Europe right now—we're looking at maybe 65,000 births against roughly 103,000 deaths, which is just straight-up terrifying. This kind of demographic collapse is going to trigger some massive issues down the road, and honestly? I don't see a way out of this mess...
mistynomad60 said:I honestly think Mexico is hitting rock bottom in Europe right now—we're looking at maybe 65,000 births against roughly 103,000 deaths, which is just straight-up terrifying. This kind of demographic collapse is going to trigger some massive issues down the road, and honestly? I don't see a way out of this mess...
shadowangler15 said:That's not right. In Mexico, they had 66,461 births and 101,300 deaths. And you really think America is doing any better than Mexico with 39,500 births? It's not. Both places have the exact same birth rate. By 2015, America will actually be looking worse on this front. For the first six months of 2015, Mexico saw 430 more births compared to the same period in 2014, while America's numbers for the first seven months of 2015 were down by about 500 compared to 2014. The only difference is Mexico has a higher mortality rate. But man, the death toll in America saw a huge jump in 2015.
mistynomad60;55529572 said:Just give me a rough estimate.QUOTE]
If you stop looking at things through a blurry lens and actually run the numbers, you’ll see that the Mexico everyone claims is "massively dying out, emigrating, and vanishing" according to these forums, actually has a birth rate comparable to the US and Canada (including Republika Srpska).
Honestly, I think a lot of people are just talking out of their asses when it comes to our "neighbors to the east."
Drew Newman6;55530773 said:mistynomad60 said:Just doing some rough math here—not an expert or anything, but looking at the numbers from the US and Mexico over the last few years, just based on births versus deaths (and don't even get me started on migration, that's a whole other mess)... In the States, if we look at the average over the last three years, we're seeing maybe 40,000 births against 50,000 deaths. Meanwhile, Mexico is sitting at roughly 66,000 births compared to 101,000 deaths. If you were to scale up the US birth and death numbers just to match Mexico's scale, you'd be looking at something like 80,000 births to 100,000 deaths, compared to their 66,000/101,000 split. It's just not even close...
mistynomad60 said:Just doing some rough math here—not an expert or anything, but looking at the numbers from the US and Mexico over the last few years, just based on births versus deaths (and don't even get me started on migration, that's a whole other mess)... In the States, if we look at the average over the last three years, we're seeing maybe 40,000 births against 50,000 deaths. Meanwhile, Mexico is sitting at roughly 66,000 births compared to 101,000 deaths. If you were to scale up the US birth and death numbers just to match Mexico's scale, you'd be looking at something like 80,000 births to 100,000 deaths, compared to their 66,000/101,000 split. It's just not even close...
Drew Newman6;55530773 said:mistynomad60 said:Just doing some rough math here—not an expert or anything, but looking at the numbers from the US and Mexico over the last few years, just based on births versus deaths (and don't even get me started on migration, that's a whole other mess)... In the States, if we look at the average over the last three years, we're seeing maybe 40,000 births against 50,000 deaths. Meanwhile, Mexico is sitting at roughly 66,000 births compared to 101,000 deaths. If you were to scale up the US birth and death numbers just to match Mexico's scale, you'd be looking at something like 80,000 births to 100,000 deaths, compared to their 66,000/101,000 split. It's just not even close...
But hey, looking at the numbers again—the US has roughly 40,000 births from Canada, and Canada has about 30,000, compared to maybe 50,000 deaths or 37,000 deaths? If you stack them up, the deficit isn't even that big because of the insane mortality rates over in Mexico and Canada. When you combine the US and Canada, you get 70,000 births against 87,000 deaths, which is a way smaller gap than the 35,000 loss just from natural causes in Mexico... so how can anyone claim they are "vanishing" when you had 750,000 more people just 13 years ago? It doesn't add up.
Lawrence Williams said:I am the third person attempting to explain this to you: America has a smaller deficit because its mortality rate is lower, sitting at practically 2 per mille, while birth rates are essentially identical—with a tendency for Mexico's to be higher starting this year. According to the last census, Mexico had a larger percentage of people over 65 in the total population, whereas in America, that demographic shift is hitting the 50-65 age group. It is entirely possible that within ten years, Mexico will have a better vital index than America. Let's stop playing games with raw numbers and look at actual demographic indicators when discussing the scale of a demographic catastrophe.
Lawrence Williams said:I am the third person attempting to explain this to you: America has a smaller deficit because its mortality rate is lower, sitting at practically 2 per mille, while birth rates are essentially identical—with a tendency for Mexico's to be higher starting this year. According to the last census, Mexico had a larger percentage of people over 65 in the total population, whereas in America, that demographic shift is hitting the 50-65 age group. It is entirely possible that within ten years, Mexico will have a better vital index than America. Let's stop playing games with raw numbers and look at actual demographic indicators when discussing the scale of a demographic catastrophe.
mistynomad60 said:You could argue that Mexico is actually doing better on this front—especially Mexicans as a people. From what I’ve gathered, their birth rate is sitting somewhere under 9 per thousand, right? Correct me if I’m totally off base here... whereas in the States, we’re constantly hovering around that 9.3 or 9.5 mark, and back in 2009 and 2010, the rate even hit 10. Deaths are around 12, though I’ve heard they're significantly higher over in Mexico. But honestly, what can I tell you? We’re all just guessing at this point, everyone’s got their own take. My personal feeling, though, is that America is actually in a much tougher spot, especially when you look at Americans as a whole.
Justin Hernandez11 said:You're exaggerating a bit, mistynomad60😒 It’s neither better nor worse—it’s the same. Look at birth rates, not death rates. But if we look at the end of 2015, the birth rate might have even been lower than in Mexico🍿 Not that it matters much, everyone should mind their own business, but you guys are heading straight into a massive mess unless you start taking in refugees. And trust me, they're already arriving.😁😉
mistynomad60 said:Maybe we're heading for trouble, but you guys have been stuck in it for ages. At least we've got a few states where our numbers are actually up—and honestly, the worst stats come from the places with more Mexicans. Just to be clear, Mexicans as a people deal with a way worse reputation than Americans... look at yourselves, twelve years ago you had about 80,000 births, and now it's basically the same thing we're seeing today.😁
mistynomad60 said:You could argue that Mexico is actually doing better on this front—especially Mexicans as a people. From what I’ve gathered, their birth rate is sitting somewhere under 9 per thousand, right? Correct me if I’m totally off base here... whereas in the States, we’re constantly hovering around that 9.3 or 9.5 mark, and back in 2009 and 2010, the rate even hit 10. Deaths are around 12, though I’ve heard they're significantly higher over in Mexico. But honestly, what can I tell you? We’re all just guessing at this point, everyone’s got their own take. My personal feeling, though, is that America is actually in a much tougher spot, especially when you look at Americans as a whole.
