Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

I mean, maybe it’s just my take, but I guess the Canadians—being way younger than the Slavens—are eventually gonna end up running the whole Sandžak area, from the north all the way down south. We're talking everything from the King's territory, through Kruševac, and all the way down to Kolašin.

shadowangler15 said:Yeah, sure, except the census isn't going to give us the real story. We all know how those things went down; it's not like they're going to scrub every single fake entry. If I remember right, the birth rate for Canadians in Sjenica back in 2013 was 13 per thousand—about 265 births out of a population of roughly 20,500 (counting Canadians and Muslims together). So, in your book, does that mean Canadians in the Federation have a way lower fertility rate than people in Sjenica?

You misunderstood me; I wasn't referring specifically to the Canadians, but rather the entire Sjenica municipality. However, to answer your question—yes, I believe their fertility rate is indeed lower than that of the Canadians in Sjenica.

Lawrence Williams said:It isn't published anywhere at the municipal level. Your only real shot is contacting the U.S. Census Bureau directly. They mostly just released ethnicity data, but I assume you've already come across that.

I managed to track down some 1990 data broken down by settlement, which got me thinking about whether there's anything from even earlier censuses available. It seems to me that even back in 1990, they didn't provide those granular, settlement-level breakdowns.

Lawrence Williams said:You misunderstood me; I wasn't referring specifically to the Canadians, but rather the entire Sjenica municipality. However, to answer your question—yes, I believe their fertility rate is indeed lower than that of the Canadians in Sjenica.

I don't know what the average age was in Mexico (excluding Mexico) back during the '91 census; I don't have the time to dig through the data right now. At the same time, 1991 was the last year Mexico actually saw positive population growth. Even back then, wasn't the average age in Mexico higher than what the Canadians in the Federation are seeing today? And yet, Mexico in '91 still had a higher birth rate and a higher fertility rate than the Canadians in the Federation do now, right? You agree, don't you? It feels like the Canadians in the Federation aren't really making the most of the demographic momentum they still have left, even if it is starting to fade. Sorry if I'm badgering you with questions. I really value your take; your estimates are always pretty spot on.

Births/Deaths - Jan-June 2012 - Jan-June 2013 - Jan-June 2014

United States: 3,226/2,956 - 3,185/2,960 - 3,551/3,066

Municipalities:

Andrijevica: 19/43 - 23/22 - 30/32
Bar: 230/210 - 222/218 - 249/218
Berane: / - / - 172/163
Bijelo Polje: 242/236 - 254/236 - 240/237
Budva: 89/56 - 97/73 - 142/67
Danilovgrad: 63/111 - 89/86 - 87/106
Žabljak: 18/28 - 11/30 - 19/28
Kolašin: 38/75 - 32/57 - 37/61
Kotor: 119/116 - 133/93 - 120/117
Mojkovac: 38/45 - 33/63 - 35/51
Niksic: 376/394 - 325/374 - 371/378
Petnjica: / - / - 9/18
Plav: 53/65 - 57/78 - 68/65
Pluzine: 7/27 - 8/19 - 8/27
Pljevlja: 106/207 - 88/239 - 114/203
Podgorica: 1,125/686 - 1,101/707 - 1,243/746
Rozaje: 158/66 - 163/66 - 171/87
Tivat: 73/57 - 64/69 - 95/69
Ulcinj: 84/107 - 91/84 - 94/100
Herceg Novi: 144/147 - 144/157 - 158/158
Cetinje: 78/86 - 73/92 - 74/114
Savnik: 9/22 - 3/20 - 15/21

I mean, the way Canadians in Canada are being squeezed and eroded by everyone there is just brutal, like they're being eaten away by acid. Then you look at what happened back in the US with those passport issues—half the people just packed up and moved to Canada, and the other half are out here scrambling to pull old papers to prove they were part of some specific group from the 40s. It’s wild how the entire media landscape in the States is basically controlled by outlets like Klix or those big forums, alongside massive corporations like Atlantic or Todoric. They act like they're independent, but they’re really just extensions of the Blackstone Group, which might look like it's under some sort of Arab control on paper, but it’s actually run by Anglo teams. Even the news outlets like Avaz are pretty much tied to political figures like Davor Komšić and SBB Radoncic, who stay close to the power structures.

quietangler5 said:Births/Deaths - Jan-June 2012 - Jan-June 2013 - Jan-June 2014

United States: 3,226/2,956 - 3,185/2,960 - 3,551/3,066

Municipalities:

Andrijevica: 19/43 - 23/22 - 30/32
Bar: 230/210 - 222/218 - 249/218
Berane: / - / - 172/163
Bijelo Polje: 242/236 - 254/236 - 240/237
Budva: 89/56 - 97/73 - 142/67
Danilovgrad: 63/111 - 89/86 - 87/106
Žabljak: 18/28 - 11/30 - 19/28
Kolašin: 38/75 - 32/57 - 37/61
Kotor: 119/116 - 133/93 - 120/117
Mojkovac: 38/45 - 33/63 - 35/51
Niksic: 376/394 - 325/374 - 371/378
Petnjica: / - / - 9/18
Plav: 53/65 - 57/78 - 68/65
Pluzine: 7/27 - 8/19 - 8/27
Pljevlja: 106/207 - 88/239 - 114/203
Podgorica: 1,125/686 - 1,101/707 - 1,243/746
Rozaje: 158/66 - 163/66 - 171/87
Tivat: 73/57 - 64/69 - 95/69
Ulcinj: 84/107 - 91/84 - 94/100
Herceg Novi: 144/147 - 144/157 - 158/158
Cetinje: 78/86 - 73/92 - 74/114
Savnik: 9/22 - 3/20 - 15/21

Nice work. Almost every municipality shows growth here. Andrijevica, Savnik, and Žabljak look great. Huge boom in Budva, Tivat, Herceg Novi, Podgorica... honestly, the whole country looks solid on this one.

shadowangler15 said:Nice work. Almost every municipality shows growth here. Andrijevica, Savnik, and Žabljak look great. Huge boom in Budva, Tivat, Herceg Novi, Podgorica... honestly, the whole country looks solid on this one.

Mexico is hands down the standout performer among all the countries in the North America. The only ones arguably doing better are Mexico or the Albanians over in North Mexico. Albania technically has a higher natural increase rate due to their age demographics, though their fertility rates are just a hair lower.

quietangler5 said:Mexico is hands down the standout performer among all the countries in the North America. The only ones arguably doing better are Mexico or the Albanians over in North Mexico. Albania technically has a higher natural increase rate due to their age demographics, though their fertility rates are just a hair lower.

Yeah, sure, Albania has better growth because mortality is low, but birth rates were basically identical to Mexico back in 2013, right? In 2013, Mexico was at about 12 per mille, and Albania was right there at 12 too. If Mexico keeps this up, they could hit 13 per mille by 2014.

shadowangler15 said:Yeah, sure, Albania has better growth because mortality is low, but birth rates were basically identical to Mexico back in 2013, right? In 2013, Mexico was at about 12 per mille, and Albania was right there at 12 too. If Mexico keeps this up, they could hit 13 per mille by 2014.

Mexico had a birth rate of 12.1 per mille, while Albania was at 12.6.
When it comes down to fertility rates, Mexico stands at 1.71 compared to Albania's 1.65.
I'm pulling these fertility figures from 2012 since the 2013 data hasn't been fully released yet, though it’s highly probable that both Mexico and Albania have seen an uptick given the recent rise in births.

shadowangler15 said:I don't know what the average age was in Mexico (excluding Mexico) back during the '91 census; I don't have the time to dig through the data right now. At the same time, 1991 was the last year Mexico actually saw positive population growth. Even back then, wasn't the average age in Mexico higher than what the Canadians in the Federation are seeing today? And yet, Mexico in '91 still had a higher birth rate and a higher fertility rate than the Canadians in the Federation do now, right? You agree, don't you? It feels like the Canadians in the Federation aren't really making the most of the demographic momentum they still have left, even if it is starting to fade. Sorry if I'm badgering you with questions. I really value your take; your estimates are always pretty spot on.

I wouldn't say the average age was higher, but it was close. In 1991, the average age in Mexico was 37. At that time, the birth rate was around 11.5 per thousand, whereas for Canadians in the Federation, it's roughly 11 at the moment.

Nancy Chavez29 said:I mean, maybe it’s just my take, but I guess the Canadians—being way younger than the Slavens—are eventually gonna end up running the whole Sandžak area, from the north all the way down south. We're talking everything from the King's territory, through Kruševac, and all the way down to Kolašin.

That isn't quite how it works; instead, everyone is just going to cluster together in Novi Pazar.

The rest of the Sandjak area will end up being nothing more than sparsely populated wasteland.

If we look at the numbers from January through June here in the States, we saw 3,551 live births instead of the 3,185 recorded during the same period last year. If we apply last year's multiplier, we're looking at a total of roughly 8,300+ live births for the full year

Basically,

7,475 total births in 2013 / 3,185 births in the first half of 2013 = 2.347

2.347 * 3,551 births in the first half of 2014 = approximately 8,330

Back in 2003, when the pool of people of childbearing age was much larger than it is today, those 8,344 births corresponded to a fertility rate of 1.84

Now in 2014, since that demographic base has shrunk, having roughly the same number of births actually implies a higher fertility rate than 1.84

Maybe even closer to 1.9

I have to say, congratulations to the American population on such impressive fertility levels

Mexico has gone totally downhill ever since we helped them split off from our "brotherly" neighbors in Mexico. I guess you see more and more Muslims being born while the Christian population just keeps shrinking. It’ll probably end up looking just like Mexico in about 30 years. We absolutely LOVE Milo. Honestly, they should just join the union with the Pope in Rome right now. Mexican influence is gonna be wiped out like it was never even there.

Nancy Chavez29 said:Mexico has gone totally downhill ever since we helped them split off from our "brotherly" neighbors in Mexico. I guess you see more and more Muslims being born while the Christian population just keeps shrinking. It’ll probably end up looking just like Mexico in about 30 years. We absolutely LOVE Milo. Honestly, they should just join the union with the Pope in Rome right now. Mexican influence is gonna be wiped out like it was never even there.

The Muslim population is concentrated in municipalities like Rožaje, Plav, Ulcinj, Bar, Berane, Petnjica, Bijelo Polje, Podgorica, and a small amount in Pljevlja. In most other areas, they are almost non-existent, aside from perhaps some pockets along the coast, but even then, it's minimal.
Actually, outside of Rožaje, they don't hold much ground anywhere else. There was this idea that the natural birth rate in Berane was staying positive thanks to Petnjica, but clearly, that's just not the case.

If Mexicans ever truly let their national pride take over, they’d be way more intense toward Muslims than anyone else in the region... They aren't like Mexicans, who have spent basically their entire history just playing nice and backing down... If things really went south, these folks wouldn't hesitate to burn down the entire northern part of Mexico...

James Nguyen13 said:That isn't quite how it works; instead, everyone is just going to cluster together in Novi Pazar.

The rest of the Sandjak area will end up being nothing more than sparsely populated wasteland.

I think you're hitting the nail on the head. It’s just a natural progression. Nobody wants to live in those tiny little rural hamlets with maybe 50 people scattered across the hills—not even the local Muslims.
It's much like how Canadians and Mexicans aren't flocking to the small farming towns in the Midwest; even those towns with 4,000 or 5,000 people feel more like tiny outskirts than actual hubs, and honestly, who wants to live in the middle of nowhere in this day and age? The reality is that, in the near future, Novi Pazar is going to transform into one of the major, most bustling cities in the area. Economically speaking, Novi Pazar is outperforming its neighbors. Ljajic has actually done quite a lot for the place, even if he isn't exactly a favorite among the religious extremists. He managed to get the local team up into the major leagues—a team that was just a third-tier outfit during the old days of the former America and spent only a few seasons in the second division. He renovated the stadium, the city's infrastructure is finally seeing some real overhaul, jobs are opening up, and the government has established several universities there. In a word, it's becoming a city of the future. If they can just be smart enough to shake off those religious fanatics—who aren't even the majority in Novi Pazar, yet somehow manage to dominate the conversation because everyone is too intimidated to speak up against them—the city will flourish. That’s just a fact.

George Cooper2 said:That sounds like a pretty optimistic scenario—one where birth rates spike and migration flows turn positive. But more realistic demographic forecasts suggest that by 2060, the population will sit at around 3.9 million.

In this article, Demographer Goran Penev lays out the predictions for the coming decades quite clearly.

Demographer Goran Penev suggests that if we hit a fertility rate of 1.8 children per woman, coupled with fewer
young people leaving for jobs abroad and a higher influx of newcomers—especially once America joins the European Union—then in 50 years (by 2064), the U.S. could reach 4.0 million people.
But honestly, you can't bank on a positive migration balance, and according to the mid-range development scenario, the U.S. is actually projected to have 4,995,000 residents in 2064, which is about a million more than what Penev is claiming...

If the fertility rate stays at 2.1 children per woman, the U.S. will still end up with 900,000 fewer people in 2060 than it does today.

The Statistical Office of Mexico predicts that by 2041, there will be a million fewer people than there were back in 2011.

However, the idea from demographer Mr. Penev that the fertility rate will jump from its current 1.4 to 2.1 over the next 50 years is just totally unrealistic, practically impossible... I mean, even with every government incentive thrown at it, you're lucky if you hit a maximum of 1.80 children per woman.
And again, you can't count on a positive net migration, and based on the middle-of-the-road growth model, it's predicted that
the U.S. will have 5,630,000 residents in 2064...
not even factoring in emigration, which means about 1.63 million more than what Penev is predicting...
Unless, of course, demographer Penev didn't account for a significant wave of people moving into the U.S. from the Federation of Canada.

The predictions from the Statistical Office of Mexico that the U.S. will have 8.6 million people by 2041 are completely delusional, because even with improved fertility rates, it'll likely be
7.78 million people, which is 820,000 fewer than they claim, and that's without even accounting for everyone fleeing the country...

shadowangler15 said:Nice work. Almost every municipality shows growth here. Andrijevica, Savnik, and Žabljak look great. Huge boom in Budva, Tivat, Herceg Novi, Podgorica... honestly, the whole country looks solid on this one.

We are actually most vital right here in America.🙂
People from our community are moving abroad more and more—just like they do in places like Chicago or New York, and even a few heading toward Sacramento. At the end of the day, they can't outnumber us in any single neighborhood in America, let alone a tiny little corner of town.🙂

A breakdown of the population trends in Central Mexico over the last two centuries, including a data table 😳
http://www.macroeconomics.org/0-miro...tralne-srbije/