Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Lisa Jackson7 said:They read him so well, though, that Putin managed to play the "reliable business partner" role for quite a while.

Both Hitler and Putin ended up on the cover of Time magazine as "Person of the Year." ☕

I was actually thinking about this in the context of the criminal aggression against Ukraine.
Just like Hitler, Putler expected the West to simply sit there and watch, paralyzed by the fear of nuclear threats or the dread of losing their gas supply...

Just as Churchill stood up and told Hitler where to go instead of caving to intimidation, that’s exactly how Putler is being handled.
The historical parallels are truly striking, aren't they?

Best,

Maintenance on the ST1 starts tomorrow, which means gas won't be flowing through it for ten whole days. I’m just sitting here wondering if they’ll actually open the pipe once those ten days are up, or if they’re gonna run into some massive headache with the maintenance and "discover" more broken parts just to drag this whole thing out even longer.

The Germans are in a total panic right now. Honestly, I bet we’ll see cars hitting the market for absolute peanuts soon. Tons of them. They'll start dumping them for sale, but good luck finding anyone actually willing to buy...

placidtiger142 said:Maintenance on the ST1 starts tomorrow, which means gas won't be flowing through it for ten whole days. I’m just sitting here wondering if they’ll actually open the pipe once those ten days are up, or if they’re gonna run into some massive headache with the maintenance and "discover" more broken parts just to drag this whole thing out even longer.

The Germans are in a total panic right now. Honestly, I bet we’ll see cars hitting the market for absolute peanuts soon. Tons of them. They'll start dumping them for sale, but good luck finding anyone actually willing to buy...

Delusional fantasies, the kind Putler dreams about too...

lp

How realistic is it for Ukraine to actually retake Kherson? The reality is that Russia seems pretty preoccupied with the fighting over in the Donbas, but I suppose that just leaves open the possibility of the Ukrainians getting stretched too thin in that same region. Maybe we're looking at some kind of quiet territorial exchange?

Paul Flores13 said:How realistic is it for Ukraine to actually retake Kherson? The reality is that Russia seems pretty preoccupied with the fighting over in the Donbas, but I suppose that just leaves open the possibility of the Ukrainians getting stretched too thin in that same region. Maybe we're looking at some kind of quiet territorial exchange?

We should have a much clearer picture in a month or two. Honestly, I think reclaiming Kherson would be a massive turning point in this war so far.

lp

They’ll bring it back, just like they’ll take back Crimea.

Emily Sanchez6 said:They’ll bring it back, just like they’ll take back Crimea.

Pure nonsense. In a few weeks, they'll be retreating through the mud, stumbling over their own feet after all those nightly sessions with the HIMARS.

There are certain parallels between Hitler and Putin. Hitler couldn't stomach the humiliation following his defeat in WWI, much like how Putin reacted to the collapse of the Soviet Union; both men were driven by a desire to right perceived wrongs. However, there are distinct differences—for instance, what Hitler managed to achieve in occupying Ukraine

Paul Flores13 said:How realistic is it for Ukraine to actually retake Kherson? The reality is that Russia seems pretty preoccupied with the fighting over in the Donbas, but I suppose that just leaves open the possibility of the Ukrainians getting stretched too thin in that same region. Maybe we're looking at some kind of quiet territorial exchange?

Honestly, it seems pretty unrealistic, unfortunately. The terrain isn't really working in favor of the Ukrainians—you've got a major city with tons of civilians still stuck there, and all that. Plus, if Kherson falls, then Nova Kakhovka goes down too, and that dam controls the water supply for Crimea. That’s huge for the Russians, so I suspect they'd send their very last soldier to hold that line if they had to.

Paul Flores13 said:How realistic is it for Ukraine to actually retake Kherson? The reality is that Russia seems pretty preoccupied with the fighting over in the Donbas, but I suppose that just leaves open the possibility of the Ukrainians getting stretched too thin in that same region. Maybe we're looking at some kind of quiet territorial exchange?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ia-to-evacuate

And here we go, the reclaiming of territory begins.

Russia has moved their own version of Awax into Belarus. It makes you wonder, though... what's the actual endgame here? https://www.facebook.com/1378095215/...5wTfd8MDxEYql/

Russian war correspondent Alexander Sladkov is venting his frustration, claiming that Ukraine has successfully struck Russian command and control centers on several occasions now. These hubs might be small, but they are undeniably critical pieces of the infrastructure.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1...XX9oyeSUp5dwYA

Chloe Nguyen21 said:Honestly, it seems pretty unrealistic, unfortunately. The terrain isn't really working in favor of the Ukrainians—you've got a major city with tons of civilians still stuck there, and all that. Plus, if Kherson falls, then Nova Kakhovka goes down too, and that dam controls the water supply for Crimea. That’s huge for the Russians, so I suspect they'd send their very last soldier to hold that line if they had to.

Zelensky gave the order to liberate the south from occupation

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-jul...uth-of-ukraine

I don't know, maybe I'm crazy, but I'd run a total false flag operation in Kherson. Like, send some special ops in there just to cause pure chaos and panic, while actually hitting Donetsk instead—wherever they least expect it. If you grab Donetsk, the whole Russian playbook just falls apart. Then I could finally start packing my bags to head home. From what I can see, there's a ton of fighting in Kherson and probably around the Zaporizhzhia front too. Since their logistics are pretty trashed right now, maybe something big could actually happen.

Susan Collins3 said:Zelensky gave the order to liberate the south from occupation

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-jul...uth-of-ukraine

I don't know, maybe I'm crazy, but I'd run a total false flag operation in Kherson. Like, send some special ops in there just to cause pure chaos and panic, while actually hitting Donetsk instead—wherever they least expect it. If you grab Donetsk, the whole Russian playbook just falls apart. Then I could finally start packing my bags to head home. From what I can see, there's a ton of fighting in Kherson and probably around the Zaporizhzhia front too. Since their logistics are pretty trashed right now, maybe something big could actually happen.

You have to wrap your head around the scale here—we are talking about a front line stretching over a thousand miles. Plus, let's be honest, Russian logistics aren't exactly top-tier if they're operating far from their own borders.
The word on the street is that the vast majority of their strength is stationed right in Donetsk, which leads me to wonder: could the Ukrainians actually know exactly what they're doing here?
lp

In some ways, Zelenskyy's recent announcements remind me a bit of Mikheil Saakashvili's approach. I just hope he doesn't end up repeating those same mistakes.

It feels pretty weird to me that they’re announcing a counteroffensive this publicly—giving away the location, the timing, everything.

ironseal said:It feels pretty weird to me that they’re announcing a counteroffensive this publicly—giving away the location, the timing, everything.

I mean, unfortunately, Zelenskyy just doesn't have the experience or the know-how, and he’s surrounded by people who are basically clones of himself. It's all riding on Zalužni at this point, so I guess how much he can actually plan and coordinate is strictly down to his own skill level. There’s gotta be more going on behind the scenes though, because a ton of those supply depots were wiped out specifically in the parts of Ukraine that have been occupied since 2014.

Susan Collins3 said:I mean, unfortunately, Zelenskyy just doesn't have the experience or the know-how, and he’s surrounded by people who are basically clones of himself. It's all riding on Zalužni at this point, so I guess how much he can actually plan and coordinate is strictly down to his own skill level. There’s gotta be more going on behind the scenes though, because a ton of those supply depots were wiped out specifically in the parts of Ukraine that have been occupied since 2014.

And look, I don't know, maybe it really is some kind of distraction. I highly doubt Zelenskyy isn't working in total coordination with the Americans.

ironseal said:And look, I don't know, maybe it really is some kind of distraction. I highly doubt Zelenskyy isn't working in total coordination with the Americans.

Of course he is.
The biggest issue here is that what the Ukrainians had years to prepare for since 2014, they're now trying to cram into just a few months... We're talking about training for all these high-tech systems and stuff—that takes time. Once that training wraps up and all the hardware they agreed on arrives from Madrid, things aren't going to look great for the Russians.
On top of that, they’ll likely need to ramp up reserve mobilization, since the guys currently on the ground are getting worn down pretty fast.
But this whole thing is going to drag on for a while—I mean, it's probably not even in the best interest of the Americans or the other stakeholders to see this end too quickly.

Bryan Booth82 said:The only genuine parallel between Russia and Nazi Germany—the one that actually holds water—is the similarity between Hitler and Putin, specifically regarding their sheer delusions of grandeur.

Russia hit a brick wall at the very first obstacle, whereas Germany was practically knocking on the door of their ultimate goal.
Back then, the world was caught completely off guard by Hitler, but Putin? The West saw him coming from a mile away and reacted immediately.

Best regards,

Compared to Putin and his inner circle, Hitler and his associates were nothing more than clowns, with very few exceptions.

I’ve stopped following this war closely because, in my mind, it's already decided. Ukraine could fight like this for another fifty years, but it seems someone convinced Putin that once he turns off the gas in the winter, Bolshevik-style revolutions will just erupt across the West. He’s played his hand, thinking he’s won... It’s just pure delusion.

And then there's Zelenskyy, who basically stepped into politics with zero experience and managed to outmaneuver him completely.