Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

dustyowl29 said:Putin isn't losing sleep over Gazprom, Rosneft, or some random billionaire oligarch. He doesn't give a damn about Russia or its economy, either.
He is strictly focused on his own legacy—on how he’ll be remembered as a historical figure in the textbooks. And he'll get his way, obviously.
The guy is going all the way. Pure madness. Just like Hitler.

Putin's backed into a corner, and this is the last weapon he has left. I suspect he knows deep down he won't actually shatter the unity of the European Union, but he'll certainly try. What else does he have? By next spring, Russia's position will only continue to erode. Ukraine will be better armed than they are now, the sting of sanctions will start to really bite, and oil and gas revenues will begin to dry up, dragging production capacity down with them. A downward spiral has begun...

William Cooper11 said:As long as Americans, Brits, and Pole2 are standing shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine, they don't have to worry about anyone pulling the rug out from under them.

They already have, they just haven't realized it yet.

dustymarlin10 said:They already have, they just haven't realized it yet.

Oh, sure—but only if you're looking at it through the lens of Russian propaganda.
Lp

dustymarlin10 said:They already have, they just haven't realized it yet.

Honestly, that's a pretty solid point you made there. ☕

dustymarlin10 said:They already have, they just haven't realized it yet.

How exactly?

rowdytiger13 said:We'll see how it plays out.
Russia has spent years weaving its influence through the European Union. That presence didn't just vanish. If Emmanuel Macron loses to Marine Le Pen, it could trigger a massive political earthquake given how critical France is to the region. They could just as easily pull the rug out from under an unstable Italy, where pro-Russian factions also hold significant sway. Then you have Austria to consider.
This winter is crucial for Russia, especially with the upcoming US Congressional elections looming. If the Democrats lose control of Congress and the Republicans take over—driven by the MAGA crowd—the landscape shifts. Those folks are much more inclined to push for a peace deal, which might mean Ukraine having to surrender some territory.

We'll see—everyone helps as long as it lines up with their own national interests.

Putin is far too busy to even show up for Gorbachev's funeral

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...busy-to-attend

“ Although the ceremony will include certain “state funeral elements,” a White House spokesperson noted that the President, Vladimir Putin, won’t be in attendance—all because of his supposedly packed “work schedule.”

Donna Harris11 said:Do you think the Germans are already tapping into the gas they've got sitting in those underground storage facilities? 😁

I don't give much thought to it, nor do I particularly care which specific gas the Germans are burning right now. What matters is the principle. You simply cannot allow yourself to be blackmailed. When dealing with extortion, you don't yield even an inch; it’s a matter of fundamental principle. As for the Germans, I feel far less concern regarding them than I do toward the Russians. With the current leadership in The White House, their future is far more volatile. Besides, I find the Russians more relatable than the Germans—perhaps that's why I worry about them more.

Great breakdown of the situation here.
Six months into the war: What Putin wanted vs. what he actually got.
Is Russia any safer, wealthier, or more powerful now?
The reality check:

"Demilitarization" of Ukraine? After six months of fighting, Ukraine has actually walked away with tens of billions of dollars worth of cutting-edge Western hardware they never even had before. Just the latest round of aid from the U.S. government—covering air defense systems, surface-to-air missiles, radar, and artillery—is estimated at $2.98 billion.

"Denazification" of Ukraine? Honestly, it seems like the only people who saw any Nazis were the Russian intelligence officers out scouting. If anyone else did spot a Nazi, there were about as many in Ukraine as there are on Times Square during Adolf Hitler's birthday. Not one single journalist out of the dozens reporting from the front lines has run into any Nazis or fascists. But, judging by the rhetoric coming from various Russian officials and their proxies, it looks like they’re doing their best to recycle clips from Hitler's speeches.

Protecting the Russian-speaking populations in the east and south? Where exactly were they "protected"—in the ruins of Mariupol, where over 89% of the population spoke Russian? Or in Kharkiv, which gets pounded week after week, killing civilians, despite 95% of the people there speaking Russian? Or maybe in Mykolaiv, where over 50% of the population is native Russian-speaking, yet it's being hammered by cluster bombs, according to a Philadelphia Inquirer reporter on the ground? It's a hell of a defense strategy: just pile up the bodies of the people you claim to be protecting.
...
Every single day this war drags on, it costs taxpayers about $500 million. Back in July, Department of the Treasury stats showed a federal budget deficit of 892 billion rubles—a 22.5% drop in oil and gas revenue despite high energy prices, plus a nearly 30% slump in tax collections. We’re looking at an expected GDP loss of 8% by the end of the year, with the economy likely shrinking for another year or two.

Donna Harris11 said:Do you think the Germans are already tapping into the gas they've got sitting in those underground storage facilities? 😁

If you actually bother to look at the data available online, the information consistently shows their storage facilities being refilled, regardless of the fact that supplies from Russia have been cut off.
Best regards,

This is such a fantastic visualization of all the stats and data! It leans quite heavily on Oryx for the heavy lifting, but there's clearly a lot of other stuff baked in too, like extra support and additional layers. Sorry if I'm late to the party on this one—I honestly just stumbled upon it right now!
https://datastudio.google.com/report...?s=nwLjV75LVrw
https://datastudio.google.com/report...?s=nwLjV75LVrw
https://datastudio.google.com/report...?s=nwLjV75LVrw

Amanda Allen4 said:Putin is far too busy to even show up for Gorbachev's funeral

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...busy-to-attend

“ Although the ceremony will include certain “state funeral elements,” a White House spokesperson noted that the President, Vladimir Putin, won’t be in attendance—all because of his supposedly packed “work schedule.”

You can try to imagine how Putin would've handled the whole collapse of the USSR, or the fall of the "Iron Curtain" in Berlin and the end of East Germany, which Gorbachev just let slide away peacefully....

William Anderson5 said:The gas shutoff comes as no surprise at all. Even without the sanctions on Russia, they would have found some excuse—like a sudden turbine "malfunction"—to pull this move. It’s just another tool in their arsenal, one they were always going to swing regardless of whether we hit them with sanctions or not. It's a strategic advantage they'll exploit every single time...

I'm not sure how much of an advantage that actually is if you're just burning through cubic feet of gas for zero dollars.

dustymarlin10 said:They already have, they just haven't realized it yet.

Who, the Russians?

Wait, did Kadyrov actually just announce he’s stepping down from leading Chechnya? Is this really happening?
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/statu...X4wysbzdQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status...dRZatIY1w&s=19

Nancy Gomez26 said:This is essentially their last remaining move—one they can execute with some degree of efficacy as a supposed 'retaliation' against the West (in response to the relentless escalation of sanctions). If they truly intended to push things this far, they missed the window. In other words: if this was the plan all along, they should have pulled the trigger immediately. It’s clear they were playing a numbers game, betting that the West would blink and retreat out of fear of losing Russian gas supplies. But everyone understands this is just a classic game of 'chicken.' Whoever flinches first loses. In this arena, the West holds the stronger hand; given its massive economic scale, the impact of sanctions hits much slower and less severely than it does the Russian Federation. There is absolutely zero incentive for the West to back down now, especially since everything has already been pivoted to favor them. In this scenario, the West simply needs to wait... While over at The Kremlin, they can continue with their little chess matches. Delusions can be incredibly dangerous, particularly when held by those sitting in positions of power.

The long-term fallout from these Russian games is that Europe is going to pivot to other suppliers and finally cut the cord on Russian gas. Sure, it won't be easy or cheap. The alternatives are definitely going to cost more, at least in the short term. But the real loser in the end is Russia itself... and they're doing it right when they should have been closing the deal of the century to open a new gas corridor. They're basically shooting themselves in the foot.

Brian Cruz63 said:The long-term fallout from these Russian games is that Europe is going to pivot to other suppliers and finally cut the cord on Russian gas. Sure, it won't be easy or cheap. The alternatives are definitely going to cost more, at least in the short term. But the real loser in the end is Russia itself... and they're doing it right when they should have been closing the deal of the century to open a new gas corridor. They're basically shooting themselves in the foot.

Putin probably still thinks he can just make up for losing Europe by leaning harder into trade with Asia, but does he even care about the economy? Not really. He only cares about the economy enough to build tanks, howitzers, and missiles, and to make sure the masses have enough scraps for their TV shows, a decent Chevrolet, and cheap vodka.

James Phillips92 said:I'm not sure how much of an advantage that actually is if you're just burning through cubic feet of gas for zero dollars.

Vladimir Putin clearly views this as a temporary setback that Russia can weather—one that will eventually trigger energy crises across the European Union. He expects that once the public starts feeling the squeeze, the unified political front regarding Ukraine and Russia will fracture by next spring, leading to a normalization of relations...

But that's just wishful thinking. Putin doesn't seem to realize he’s underestimated the EU (and why wouldn't he, considering the most powerful politician in the EU was the naive Merkel until recently?), nor does he grasp how the EU actually perceives this conflict. He might even be deluding himself into believing that Europe doesn't truly want to support Ukraine and is only doing so because the USA is forcing their hand...

First off, European nations will politically survive the winter. There won't be a policy shift regarding Russian aggression because everyone in the West understands that this conflict is fundamentally about the survival of the entire democratic structure within the EU. Put simply, if Ukraine falls, the conflict could easily expand, potentially leading to the collapse of the EU, NATO, and the very foundation of Western democracy. Even if that doesn't happen, it would result in a massive expansion of Russian influence across Europe, and I don't need to explain what that means for us here...

Second, Russia cannot sustain these kinds of relations with the West in the long run. Most of the Russian population looks toward Europe; they see themselves as a European people. All this talk about pivoting to Asia, BRICS, or China is mostly nonsense. Pivoting an entire nation in that direction takes decades. Once Russians realize the sheer scale of that undertaking, they'll likely bail and head back toward Europe. It's possible Putin envisions Russia as such a powerhouse that the rest of the world will naturally gravitate toward them without any effort, but that's a distant fantasy. Long-term, Russia's strength will continue to wane, not just against the EU and China, but against India and others as well, leaving Russia unable to exert any real influence...

James Phillips92 said:I'm not sure how much of an advantage that actually is if you're just burning through cubic feet of gas for zero dollars.

Just think about it.

It's his last resort.
He doesn't care if he loses a ton of money doing it; it's just a desperate move to hang onto power.

The whole goal is to pressure Europe into stopping their support for Ukraine. He's convinced he can pull it off just by cutting off the gas supply.

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The Ukrainians are going to cost us everything...